Skip to comments.Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Days Before Earthquake
Posted on 05/19/2011 5:42:43 PM PDT by blam
Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Days Before Earthquake
Politics / Environmental Issues
May 18, 2011 - 01:15 PM
By: Chris Kitze
Infrared emissions above the epicentre increased dramatically in the days before the devastating earthquake in Japan, say scientists
Geologists have long puzzled over anecdotal reports of strange atmospheric phenomena in the days before big earthquakes. But good data to back up these stories has been hard to come by.
In recent years, however, various teams have set up atmospheric monitoring stations in earthquake zones and a number of satellites are capable of sending back data about the state of the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere during an earthquake.
Last year, we looked at some fascinating data from the DEMETER spacecraft showing a significant increase in ultra-low frequency radio signals before the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake in January 2010
Today, Dimitar Ouzounov at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland and a few buddies present the data from the Great Tohoku earthquake which devastated Japan on 11 March. Their results, although preliminary, are eye-opening.
They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.
At the same time, satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up.
These kinds of observations are consistent with an idea called the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism. The thinking is that in the days before an earthquake, the great stresses in a fault as it is about to give cause the releases large amounts of radon.
The radioactivity from this gas ionises the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects. Since water molecules are attracted to ions in the air, ionisation triggers the large scale condensation of water.
But the process of condensation also releases heat and it is this that causes infrared emissions. "Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data," say Ouzounov and co.
These emissions go on to effect the ionosphere and its total electron content.
It certainly makes sense that the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere are coupled in a way that can be measured when one of them is perturbed. The question is to what extent the new evidence backs up this idea.
The Japan earthquake is the largest to have struck the island in modern times and will certainly turn out to be among the best studied. If good evidence of this relationship doesn't emerge from this data, other opportunities will be few and far between.
Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1105.2841: Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary Results.
Thanks! Very interesting!
Wow, this would be an enormous find if it turned out to be a verifiable precursor to a major temblor. My question would be: How do you report it without setting off a never before seen panic in any metropolitan area.
We call that “earthquake weather” here...
If this can be scientifically proven over period of time, it will be huge. However, for the reasons you mentioned I don’t think it will be used often, if at all for the public. Maybe first responders, manufacturing and utilities.
New evidence global warming causes earthquakes! I knew it, I just knew it!
... And the earthquake lady at Cal Tech admits that “unofficially” they think there may be some basis for “earthquake weather”.
Maybe those Russian scientists who insist that earthquakes are caused by methane emissions from deep under the earth are on to something.
Very, very interesting indeed! Could be very useful info if it pans out!
Actually the premise of the article makes a lot of sense to me. The stresses that lead to big earthquakes must emit some sort of detectable electronic or thermal signature. This discovery may help open the way to methods of predicting big quakes.
I don’t know. I can’t imagine someone having information like that and not telling everyone. When word got out he would be drawn and quartered by families of the casualties.
Sounds like the American or Russian HAARP programs has been doing its job.
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Damn, globul warming strikes again!
What if the atmosphere also suddenly heats when there aren’t earthquakes? Be hard to decide when to take action and when not to.
. . . . . Off Topic.
Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Days Before Earthquake
Some piezo electric activity is likely a source of electrical phenomena as well.
There is apparently a phenomenon that happens right before and perhaps during an earthquake that is very similar to the auroras in the northern and southern hemispheres. This phenomenon, somewhat regarded as make-believe until recent history, is referred to as earthquake light. Apparently right before and during an earthquake (or perhaps more accurately, places of tectonic stress, seismic activity, or volcanic eruptions), aurora-esque luminous activity in the sky has been reported all over the world.
I’m an earthquake “junkie”. This is interesting to me. Thanks for the ping.
Wow when we get a strange heat wave her (So. California) we say earthquake weather it might hold true
Thanks Fred Nerks!
“Earthquake weather” is apparently not a myth.
Now I feel better.
I will never forget the weather the afternoon of October 17, 1989.
Now now . . .
this pseudo science from alternative sources pretending to be MSM pontificators just can’t have any validity whatsoever.
IF it’s not 100% purrrree deeeeee conventional MSM blather,
it just has to be 100% false pseudo-pretend science from them wild story idiots.
Sure wouldn’t want the famous blam to fall into THAT crack in the earth [truly on that score]!
We have a winner.
The California quake during the World Series?
This would be great if true. Maybe they could come up with some way to predict earthquakes from this.
Better safe than sorry.
I'd rather have the false alarms than get caught flatfooted.
So...do you report that (for example) "San Francisco will be hit by an 8.5 earthquake in three hours"?
"Interesting yes. Quite a bit of prediction lore out here. I had not heard of this Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere Coupling mechanism. It seems plausible. Although realize that predicting earthquakes is like curing cancer or the common cold, there are so many variations that it's essentially impossible to have a single solution. But you have to start somewhere. In this case, that is implying the release of radioactive gas, there needs to be a surface based detection to confirm that specific mechanism.
Also the proposed anomaly metrics in the paper needs to be accompanied by independent review for null hypothesis. The authors claim a 2-sigma anomaly but that is meaningless without that. But in principle since the authors seem to be using standard anomaly detection methods, if there is a nut in there, they might just find it. Doesn't look crackpot. If they can confirm any mechanism like this that would be a fantastic discovery. But yes it would still be some time before we could be sure of it's utility, eg not many false positives."
"On false positives, guy at Caltech here has story of predicting earthquake and telling disaster chief in San Fran, where it was predicted. Does chief now tell mayor to evacuate the city, or ignore it, or just happen to take the day off and drive his family for an out of town excursion?"
THANKS TONS, BLAM.
I guess Quix ain’t so dumb, after all.
THANKS MUCH for the ping.
Looks like some folks have already put some pieces together that the article came right up to the line of, but didn’t mention.
Ping to geologist.
Haven’t checked this out—another FREEPER wondered about a connection:
You might ask him . . . if he could see a connection that some have already logically made up-thread. All I can say on that score.
Some real food for thought on your post:
‘story of predicting earthquake and telling disaster chief in San Fran, where it was predicted. Does chief now tell mayor to evacuate the city, or ignore it, or just happen to take the day off and drive his family for an out of town excursion? ...’
Thanks for sharing the info from your son.
The Wichita event was explained meteorologically. The Nippon event has no basis for a MET explanation as far as I can tell.
Someone else wondered about false alarms or what happens when the atmosphere suddenly heats up, well it just doesn’t do that without a rational explanation, such as major warm front passing over, katabatic winds down a mountain or sloping hills, othre phenomenon that are well known.
This has some promise if the MET dept cannot explain the heat bubble from a known atmospheric event.
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