Third Day of Fierce Fighting in Yemen

The New York Times Company ^ | May 25, 2011 | ROBERT F. WORTH

[gandalftb]

WASHINGTON — Hopes for a peaceful settlement of Yemen’s political crisis receded further on Wednesday as intensifying street battles between government security forces and opposition tribesmen moved into a third day, leaving at least two dozen people dead and turning part of the Yemeni capital, Sana, into a war zone.

Government checkpoints and impromptu blockades erected by tribal fighters disrupted traffic around central Sana as clashes continued near several important government buildings in the Hasaba district.

On Wednesday, opposition tribesmen controlled at least two ministries — trade and tourism — and a building that houses the state-run news agency, Saba.

[gandalftb]

There is now a civil war in Yemen. President Saleh is on his last days. Here's what has changed and is driving the escalated violence:

Shiekh Abdullah bin-Husien Al-Ahmar is the sheikh (leader) of the Hashid confederation of 24 Yemeni tribes, of which Saleh's own Sanhan tribe belongs. Shiekh Al-Ahmar heads the powerful Ahmar family. His cousin Hamid al-Ahmar, owns all the telecom concessions in Yemen and has long been a rival to Saleh and would inherit power.

Shiekh Al-Ahmar had declared his support for the protestors, but only last week he brought in 600 tribal fighters to support them.

Sheikh Muhammad Abdel Qadhi, head of Saleh’s tribe, the Sanhan now openly opposes Saleh.

Without tribal support and now armed insurrection by very capable tribal fighters, Saleh cannot survive.

In 2006, Saleh had agreed to the Interim Transition Mechanism (ITM) agreeing to hand over power in three years in return for $2.4 billion dollars, drawn from donor country funds. Instead, Saleh used the money largely for his own purposes to strengthen his personal Republican Guards and enrich his family and friends.

In a limited view, last year I directly observed Saleh's conduct and can conclude that he and his word cannot be trusted in any way, that he only responds to force, and that he has no intention of leaving power willingly.

[gandalftb]

Yemen is arguably next in importance to Pakistan as an existential threat to America and the West as it is the homeland of the most powerful factions of al Qaeda.

The situation is very unstable there and an unfriendly future government would be a significant problem and could allow al Qaeda a free hand.

[Uncle Miltie]

In the mean time, if lots of bad guys kill each other, I’ll stand by and watch.

U.S. National Interests get involved when there’s only one guy left standing. Then we can send in Seal Team 6.

:-)

[bigheadfred]

Weird.

When I read the headline I thought it said, “Third Day of Fierce Fighting in Viet Nam”.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"His cousin Hamid al-Ahmar, owns all the telecom concessions in Yemen and has long been a rival to Saleh and would inherit power."

So from what you are saying, the situation in Yemen is a little different than the other Arab spring uprisings. In that we would essentially change one dictator (who happens to be friendly towards the U.S.) who is a bad guy for another dictator. That begs the questions:

1. Would the new dictator be friendly towards the U.S.?

2. Would the new dictator be a benign dictator that allows more freedom and liberties for the people than Saleh?

If you can answer these questions, it would be helpful in understanding what our course of actions here should be.

Thanks...

[AdmSmith]

Speaking about Pakistan:

Deepening Involvement by China in Pakistani Military Affairs

China Warns U.S.: ‘Any Attack On Pakistan Would Be Construed As An Attack On China’

http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5312.htm

[gandalftb]

1. Would the new dictator be friendly towards the U.S.? Yemeni's are only friendly to the US when they are paid to be so, or have our (or Saudi) guns to their heads.

2. Would the new dictator be a benign dictator that allows more freedom and liberties for the people than Saleh? The new government would be much more responsive to the Yemeni people and much more inclusive. There would still be a strong man type government but its power would be much more coalition based.

The big problem would be in disbanding the current military and security services and reorganizing them without Saleh cronies. The southern rebels and the Houthi rebels would have to agree to peace. The Houthi's are shia, historic enemies of our "partners" the Saudi's. Yemen is far more politically complex and unstable than most can imagine.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks gandalftb and AdmSmith.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

Thanks for the reply. Ultimately it sounds like we do not have to worry about Al Queada or any other whacko Islamofascist taking over. That’s good for America. And it appears that the new government would be better for the people so all in all I guess it would be a good thing if the current government were toppled even though the final outcome would not be a democratic form of government.

[thackney]

Yemen is far more politically complex and unstable than most can imagine.

BTTT - I used to live there, back in 93~94.