Posted on 05/29/2011 9:41:05 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
I figured as much. The IAF SU-30 are or were considered better because they were using helmut mounted sighting when they flew excercises against USAF F-15s. At least that is the talk in the industry.
Doubt it. Pak subs are small 2000tn diesel boats only capable of torpedo tube cruise missile launch
On the other hand India is building a blue water deterrent around 4 (6000tn) SSBNs each with 4 ballistic tubes (slightly larger than Trident tubes), initially tri-packed with single warhead short/med range missiles, eventually a single MIRV headed intermediate range SLBM.
The Daphne’s were small 1000 tn submarines from the 1960s (now scrapped). They had 12 tubes which could be loaded (in port) with a torpedo or a SM39 anti ship missile. They didn’t even have reload capability.
” and the short story is that the Pakistani airforce really has no chance against the IAF.”
I have to disagree there. Any air war between the PAF and IAF will have the PAF playing defense. And without significant force multipliers on the Indian side(Stealth Fighters, hundreds of LACMs, AESA, Advanced AEW), the IAF will need to achieve a significant numerical superiority to even force it’s way into Pakistan’s IADS. And for them to win air dominance over the theater, this numerical air superiority needs to be sustained. Both scenarios are unlikely due to the following:
1. India needs to deploy significant resources in the East to prevent a Chinese takeover of their north eastern states. This extends to critical force multipliers like AWACS(they only have 3 Israeli Phalcons) and tankers. They need to deploy additional resources to defend the rest of the country(even if they are 2nd line resources like Mig-21s). So perhaps 30% of India’s airforce at the most would be be available, which is not enough to gain numerical superiority.
2. India lacks the domestic industrial base to sustain modern air operations. Critical spare parts and munitions are almost wholly imported such that both India and Pakistan has only a 1-2 week supply. After that window has passed, even with foreign support, air warfare for both sides would largely devolve into WVR combat and dumb bombs.
Under such conditions, the PAF only has to survive for 1-2 weeks before India’s war machine grinds to a halt. In a defensive mode, modernized F-16s(with AWACS) are quite capable of handling such a challenge.
India (as of today) has 151 Su-30MKI which is superior in range, agility and endurance to any fighter in the world save for the F-22. About 51 Mirage 2000 (undergoing upgrade), another 69 Mig29s (not counting the 16+ naval Mig 20s), 8+ LCA Tejas. Plus another 314 strike aircrafts Jaguars and Mig 27s. A total of 800 fighters and bombers.
Even with a large part of IAF deployed on eastern front (considering China never actually directly intervened in any Indo-Pak war), because of sheer numbers India would still have superiority over Pakistan, perhaps not overwhelming. Besides the small number of F-16s (which are limited in range and payload) would be no match for Su-30MKI networked to Israeli Phalcon. And its no longer the 70s or 80s where India lacked an industrial base. IAF has significant amount of spares in her reserves today.
Yes I agree that India will have numerical superiority, but as I said earlier, it’s not enough to be decisive.
Non-stealthy Bombers and Strike aircraft are wasting assets in an air war unless you either have extremely advanced electronic warfare capabilities(e.g Israeli Airforce) or you can somehow achieve air dominance over the theater for these assets to safely deliver their munitions. Because India does not have stealthy aircrafts or cutting-edge AEW technologies, in effect, the key to victory is based on the fighter fleets of both sides.
So with that said, I would not discount the 40 F-16 A/Bs in the PAF inventory. At this point, the majority are either block 15/20 F-16Bs made within the last 15 years or Turkish upgraded F-16As. That means most of them are BVR capable as of today. So really, we are talking about 90 or so BVR capable 4th Gen fighters with the PAF operational today.
If you count all of the IAF’s 4th Gen fighters(150 Su-30, 70 Mig-29s, 50 Mig-2000s), you’ll get around 270 4th gen fighters. But not all of them can be deployed into theater. Some of them has to be held back as a hedge against China and also as a reserve force in case of a disaster.
India’s 2nd and 3rd generation fighters like the Mig-21 also cannot be effectively utilized due to basing limitations, the short ranges of the fighters, and the relative dearth of tanker aircraft. In effect, like the bombers, most of IAF’s 2nd line fighters are also wasting assets in an offensive air war.
So out of the IAF’s 270 or so front line fighters, perhaps 50% can be realistically used against the PAF, or just 135 fighters. Now the PAF’s 2nd line fighters can be used in a defensive air war over their own territory. The PAF’s older J-7s and Migrage IIIs would have far less limitations in terms of logistics, range, or basing because they are operating at home.
So in reality, it’s the IAF’s 135 front-line fighters against PAF’s 90 Front-line fighters, 300 2nd line fighters, and the IADS. In such an environment, even the qualitative advantages of Indian aircrafts cannot achieve victory.
Now lets talk about Force-multipliers.
AWACs are a huge force multiplier, because inferior fighters that are networked has a major advantage against Superior fighters operating on it’s own radar. Past NATO exercises have shown that F-16s operating with AWAC support could achieve a better than 1 to 2 kill ratio against superior fighters like the F-18 and the Eurofighter. Similar exercises between Turkish F-4s(operating with AWACs) and Chinese Su-27s have yielded even more lop-sided results.
The IAF only has 3 Israeli Phalcon AWACS right now. This number would enable 1 AWAC to be in theater in the air at any given time. But the question is whether the IAF can afford to deploy ALL 3 AWACS against the PAF?
The answer here I think is going to be no. Because the PLAAF has a significantly larger number of AWACs to the East. If the IAF pulls all of their AWACs to the west, they risk losing their entire air fleet in the Eastern States.
Much more likely would be the deployment of 1 or at the most 2 AWACs to the West. Now Pakistan has 4 KJ-200 and 2 Erieye AWACs. This means that their entire 4th Gen fleet could be networked while only about a dozen or so IAF fighters would be networked. That would not be a good day for the IAF.
Secondly if you want to include the 40 odd F-16A/B with whatever Turkish upgrade lets also not forget IAF’s 126 upgraded Mig 21-Bison which also happen to be BVR capable and granted they are at the lower end of performance scale but they are still good enough for whatever PAF is worth. That in itself would bring the total number of modern aircrafts to well over 400 against against PAF’s 90. There is always quality in quantity. Even at 50% force level IAF would still have overwhelming majority and it would be slaughter for PAF.
Secondly your whole premise happens to rest on Chinese intervention during an Indo-Pak conflagration ...something which never happened in any of the wars. For all the hot air blown by the Chinese they never actually intervened in any of the wars. It wouldn't be too difficult to move some of the longer range aerial assets to the western theater in short time should the need arise.
And if you want to count in PAF’s second line fighters dont forget India's 2nd line has well over 500-600 Mig 21s,23s,27s and Jaguars. Pakistani airspace isnt really all that deep for IAF to be limited on range.
Also lets not forget Su-30MKI is in a separate class of fighters as far as range and payload is concerned. It is a electronic monster of a fighter. In those parameters it is even superior to F-15 and F-18s let alone F-16s which are actually smaller aircrafts. In terms of actual performance a Su-30MKI would be equal to 2 F-16s. F-16s even with all the modern upgrades would still be severely limited on range and payload. An F-16 on a deep strike mission over Indian airspace would have to trade off ACM capability.
I dont think Pakistan has all 6 AWACs as present, they are on order still and if you want to count in future acquisitions dont forget IAF is ordering 2 more Israeli Phalcons in addition to the 3 already in service and is likely to build another one or more in collaboration with Brazil. I am however very skeptical of the actual performance of Chinese AWACs. It would be nowhere close to that of the Phalcon. Besides PAF would need to deploy large number of fighter to protect the AWACs, since Pakistani airspace lacks the strategic depth there is a good chance the larger aircrafts like aerial re-fuelers and AWACS and transport jets can fall prey to long range stand of missiles India has acquired from Israel and Russia.
Lastly you haven't considered the naval strike component offered by the IN in form of Harriers and Mig 29s. A capability that is completely missing on the Pakistani side nevertheless absolutely vital to protect shipping lanes and strategic naval assets.
Moreover this gap between IAF and PAF is only likely to widen in future with all the future Indian acquisition in the pipeline.
And talking about Turkish upgrades on F-16s, the Su 30MKI will soon be upgraded with Phazotron Zhuk-AESA. Even in her current configuration the Su-30MKI with N011M Bars radar can operate as mini AWACs and can network with 4 other fighters. So the Su-30MKI in coordination with the Phalcon radar will easily deploy a far larger number of datalinked fighters then what the PAF can field. With Zhuk-AESA upgrade the Su-30MKI will be simultaneously tracking 40 different targets.
The other upgrade happens to include Brahmos air launched cruise missile and Novator K-100 (dubbed AWAC killer) with range between 300-400 pretty much covers most of Pakistani airspace from stand off distance. PAF HVAs will be far more vulnerable against India.
In the next five years while PAF will have heavily invested in Jf-17s and FC-20s (which are actually inferior to current lot of Su-30MKIs and Mirage 2000s), the IAF will possibly be rolling out the MMRCA (EF2000 tanche3 or the Rafale). IAF will have in excess of 300 AESA enabled Su-30MKI plus a good number of LCAs which will make a formidable airforce. It will be game over for PAF.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.