Skip to comments.A Republican Surge In Weiner's District
Posted on 06/01/2011 2:30:24 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
Much of the attention being paid to Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., is focused on the salacious - whether he sent the lewd picture to a college undergrad or whether he was the victim of a grand hoax. Few are talking about the possibility that Republicans could pick up Weiner's seat.
If the scandal snowballs, however, there could be some serious political implications for Democrats from the incident. While Weiner represents a New York City district that's conventionally thought to be safely Democratic, in reality it has trended sharply in a Republican direction in recent years. If Weiner stepped down from Congress, Republicans would have a realistic shot at putting it in play.
Weiner's district, spanning mostly white neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn, trended more Republican than any other district in the country from the 2000 to the 2008 presidential election. Al Gore carried the district in a landslide, winning 67 percent of the vote. But it gave John Kerry just 56 percent of the vote in 2004, a striking 11 point dip.
The gain was largely attributable to voters' strong support of George W. Bush's counterterrorism policies post-9/11, but four years later John McCain carried the same 44 percent of the vote as Bush, even as President Obama significantly outperformed Kerry across the country.
.......One Republican operative floated the name of New York state Judge Noach Dear as a serious potential candidate. Dear unsuccessfully challenged Weiner in 1998 and 2000 in the Democratic primary, and later ran against him as a Republican.
The district has a sizable Jewish population, including a fast-growing Orthodox Jewish bloc that tends to vote Republican.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com ...
Looking at the map and 08 numbers it seems the GOP is at least competitive (if not favored) in Howard and Hamilton Beach portions of Queens, doesn't get completely killed in Lindenwood, does well in the white portions of the Rockaways (Irish cops?), and in Brooklyn cleans up Borough Park, Manhattan Terrace, Gravesend, Ocean Parkway, Marine Park, Bergin Beach, Mill Basin, and Gerritsen. It's also competitive in Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, white parts of Little Odessa and Coney Island.
Hopefully someone good can run and put this seat in play. With Weiner's weiner troubles and Obama's foreign policy dumbness, now's the time.
Vote for Pee Wee Weiner. A Weiner in every e-mail. A vote for Pee Wee is a vote for Weiner.
Weiner? I had a Der Weinerschnitzel Dog at lunch... And the congressman is a real hot dog too. He needs to leave...
I would be shocked if the weak GOP apparatus in NY state could flip this seat. They are incompetent. Hot Dog boy could attack a bus full of nuns and get reelected there.
When Weiner said “I know how the game is played” in his heated interview I could have sworn that soundbite came directly from Chicago or the White House.
That inflation better not go to their heads.
That district hasnt voted for a Republican congressman since 1921:
And Obama's domestic policy disaster.
The story writes itself.
For those who are wondering about how this could play out if he just hangs swinging in the wind, I assure you it will have no affect on his reelection chances. Yes Bob Turner did a great job of holding wiener under 60 (59%)BUT that was before the redistricting lines that will make his district even more Democrat. Currently his district goes into Gerritsen Beach where he probably got about 12% of the vote (Blue collar Irish and Italian - cops firemen and construction workers). Because of a single New York State Senate race won by the Republicans, the GOP has a 1/3 seat at the table for redistricting. Weiner will be demanding that the Gerritsen Beach Republicans be drown in a Queens Democrat district AND the upper Bay Ridge Republicans be assigned to Michael Grimms district in Staten Island which fits very well since the Democrats KNOW it was only Vitalianos zipper problems that give the seat to a Democrat in 2008. If weiner is forced to resign another Democrat will hold the seat. If weiners picture actually showed his weiner it would make no difference to the brain dead Democrats in his district so all over this is going nowhere except putting him on defense because when you are explaining, you AINT winning!
The voters there need to vote for someone not quite as ‘hard left’.
Sorry make that Fossella’s zipper problem. Eric Vitaliano is not a bad guy for a Democrat and true to his wife.
Few are talking about the possibility that Republicans could pick up Weiner’s seat.”
Does Bawney Fwank know about his seat being picked up?
Yep - if the GOP can’t win there after Obama’s & the Dems economic disaster and a creep like Weiner they never will.
If Weiner had come out right away and said, “Yeah, I did it, I sent that pic. So What!”, he would be done with it. But now that he’s changed his story a few times and refuses to answer any more questions, he tied himself up into knots and he’s becoming damaged goods.
Anthony, it’s not the crime that will destroy you, it’s the coverup. Remember Nixon?
Somehow, I don't think this headline is doing the pubs any favors. ;-)
Funny how the Weiner word of the day last week was “HACKED” today it’s “HOAX” & “PRANK”.
No I hope this goes on and on it is so funny.
Weiner was a future liberal hopeful for Mayor of NYC.
Weiner Blew It!!!!
The farther a Democrat gets away from morality, decency and responsibility the more likely they are to be re-elected.
“Hopefully someone good can run and put this seat in play.”
Not a chance! Weiner will commit erection fraud and win! Just a “head’s up!”
I agree with you. The marriage to the Moslem korvah should have have been the end of Weiner’s weenie and his career. That it was NOT a career finisher tells you about the voters of his district. Korvah, by the way, is Yiddish for “sharmuta” which means Hillary’s puta.
You have GOT to be kidding us. But then...a body can hope a bit, right? For change?
Weiner was planning on being the Mayor of NYC when Bloomers term is up.
>> Does Bawney Fwank know about his seat being picked up?
I’m sure Bawney is probing into Weiner’s seat.
Weiner is experiencing shrinkage (cue George Costanza).
The far-left DailyKos nuts will crawl out of the woodwork and show up in droves to vote for the third party candidate instead of the "neo-con zionist". A Republican could win with as little as 34% of the vote with the RAT vote split between perverted Weinie and fake Green Party candidate. Revenge for NY-26. Wonder if the RATs will still think they have a mandate on "medicare"?
This thread has a very amusing title. Won’t the scandal be yesterday’s news next year?
NY-26 in reverse.
Watch the Libs cry and whine!
Thought it was a Weiner surge.
Weiner is going to find the Hacker on his own - he doesn’t need any help from the FBI or the Secret Service.
Maybe he can pick up some pointers from that other well known innocent bystander, OJ Simpson, a man who has spent every year of his life since 1994 looking for his wife’s real killer.
“. If Weiner stepped down from Congress, Republicans would have a realistic shot at putting it in play.”
Now THAT’S funny. When has a scandal or even real wrongdoing had a democrat step down? That action is only for Republicans.
Whether Weiner is on the ballot or not, I expect the RATs would run a Jewish candidate (or at least an pro-Isreal candidate) because of the large Jewish population of the district. Given how much of the Dem's activist base is vocally anti-Jewish, running a pro-Palestinian & "all troops out of the middle east" candidate would probably cause a sizable split in the Democrat vote. I agree with post #30, we could pull a NY-26 in reverse if we started to recruit fake third party left-wing candidates now. That district has always been GOP vs. Dem races, they've had a vocal Green/Socialist/Communist Party candidate playing a factor. The idea of running someone on the "Anthony Weiner Party" line on the ballot is hilarious as well. We won HI-1 when the Democrat vote was split between two candidates, we could certainly do the same in NY-9.
Our "Green Party" candidate should at least grow a (preferable white or salt-and-pepper) beard and pony tail, unkempt hair, lecture at a university, and always be seen in public wearing flip-flops. Here are some good templates:
1920, quite so. However, when tracing back CD histories, especially in NY, the district numbers have all changed over the years (since there once was over 40 districts). The current district was then the 10th (in the 1920s until the ‘40s). There has actually only been just 4 people to occupy that district since 1922 when the last Republican incumbent, Lester Volk, was defeated. Emanuel Celler (from 1923-1973), Elizabeth Holtzman (who beat Celler in the ‘72 primary) (1973-1981) who lose to Al D’Amato for the Senate in ‘80, Chuckie Schumer from 1981-99 (who beat D’Amato), and Weiner since 1999.
Your senario would be a good one and I hope that Republicans would be wise enough to lure a third-party leftist into the race. Former NYC Councilman Noach Dear would be a good candidate in such a case. I can’t think of any other Republicans who could win.
The NYC area has to lose a seat also. I’m not saying Grimm is safe but his district adjoins only the 8th, and Nadler lives in the Manhattan portion. On my reapportionment thread someone tells me that Peter King is safe, and that two D’s will get paired in NYC and two R’s will get paired upstate.
It will be difficult but not impossible for the 6th to remain majority black, but the 9th obviously cannot shift east.
The 10th and 11th have a bit of wiggle room.
The 7th, 12th, and 15th are 44-46% Hispanic. They’ve got a good argument for at least one more majority Hispanic seat.
The Dems just might decide to screw Weiner, as it were.
I hope that NY Republican state senators insist on keeping together all of those Orthodox Jewish Brooklyn neighborhoods currently split between Nadler’s and Weiner’s districts—Nadler won’t mind getting an all-Manhattan district (although Maloney would be miffed), and Weiner would not have enough standing to complain. It is further proof of the unfairness and arbitrariness of the Voting Rights Act that (according to the prevailing interpretation) requires that NY draw a Hispanic-plurality district that squirrels through parts of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn in order to allow Hispanic voters to “elect the candidate of their choice” but simultaneously permits NY purposely to split Orthodox Jewish communities (which have far more in common with each other both culturally and politically than do Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Venezuelans, Cubans, Argentines and Mexicans from three different boroughs) into two districts so tbat they are helpless minorities in both.
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