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A Republican Surge In Weiner's District
Hotline On Call ^ | 6-1-2011 | Josh Kraushaar

Posted on 06/01/2011 2:30:24 PM PDT by Darren McCarty

Much of the attention being paid to Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., is focused on the salacious - whether he sent the lewd picture to a college undergrad or whether he was the victim of a grand hoax. Few are talking about the possibility that Republicans could pick up Weiner's seat.

If the scandal snowballs, however, there could be some serious political implications for Democrats from the incident. While Weiner represents a New York City district that's conventionally thought to be safely Democratic, in reality it has trended sharply in a Republican direction in recent years. If Weiner stepped down from Congress, Republicans would have a realistic shot at putting it in play.

Weiner's district, spanning mostly white neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn, trended more Republican than any other district in the country from the 2000 to the 2008 presidential election. Al Gore carried the district in a landslide, winning 67 percent of the vote. But it gave John Kerry just 56 percent of the vote in 2004, a striking 11 point dip.

The gain was largely attributable to voters' strong support of George W. Bush's counterterrorism policies post-9/11, but four years later John McCain carried the same 44 percent of the vote as Bush, even as President Obama significantly outperformed Kerry across the country.

.......One Republican operative floated the name of New York state Judge Noach Dear as a serious potential candidate. Dear unsuccessfully challenged Weiner in 1998 and 2000 in the Democratic primary, and later ran against him as a Republican.

The district has a sizable Jewish population, including a fast-growing Orthodox Jewish bloc that tends to vote Republican.

(Excerpt) Read more at hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: brooklyn; ny; queens; weiner; weinergate
I'll be surprised if this seat flips, but then again Obama won Indiana in 2008 and Scott Brown won Massachusetts. I saw on the Dave's Redistricting site that some Brooklyn precincts went 90% for McCain. I assume those are either police neighborhoods, and/or Russian and/or Orthodox Jews which tend to be a different breed than the Palm Beach counterparts.

Looking at the map and 08 numbers it seems the GOP is at least competitive (if not favored) in Howard and Hamilton Beach portions of Queens, doesn't get completely killed in Lindenwood, does well in the white portions of the Rockaways (Irish cops?), and in Brooklyn cleans up Borough Park, Manhattan Terrace, Gravesend, Ocean Parkway, Marine Park, Bergin Beach, Mill Basin, and Gerritsen. It's also competitive in Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, white parts of Little Odessa and Coney Island.

Hopefully someone good can run and put this seat in play. With Weiner's weiner troubles and Obama's foreign policy dumbness, now's the time.

1 posted on 06/01/2011 2:30:27 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
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To: Darren McCarty

Vote for Pee Wee Weiner. A Weiner in every e-mail. A vote for Pee Wee is a vote for Weiner.


2 posted on 06/01/2011 2:32:08 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (Socialism...Easier said than done.)
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To: screaminsunshine

Weiner? I had a Der Weinerschnitzel Dog at lunch... And the congressman is a real hot dog too. He needs to leave...


3 posted on 06/01/2011 2:35:20 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: Darren McCarty

I would be shocked if the weak GOP apparatus in NY state could flip this seat. They are incompetent. Hot Dog boy could attack a bus full of nuns and get reelected there.


4 posted on 06/01/2011 2:35:28 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Darren McCarty

When Weiner said “I know how the game is played” in his heated interview I could have sworn that soundbite came directly from Chicago or the White House.


5 posted on 06/01/2011 2:35:48 PM PDT by eaglestar
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To: Darren McCarty

That inflation better not go to their heads.


6 posted on 06/01/2011 2:37:15 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
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To: Darren McCarty

That district hasnt voted for a Republican congressman since 1921:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York’s_9th_congressional_district


7 posted on 06/01/2011 2:37:20 PM PDT by lowbridge (Rep. Dingell: "Its taken a long time.....to control the people.")
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To: Darren McCarty
With Weiner's weiner troubles and Obama's foreign policy dumbness, now's the time.

And Obama's domestic policy disaster.

8 posted on 06/01/2011 2:37:24 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: Darren McCarty; Liz; AT7Saluki; writer33
If the scandal snowballs...

The story writes itself.

9 posted on 06/01/2011 2:38:31 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
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To: Darren McCarty

For those who are wondering about how this could play out if he just hangs swinging in the wind, I assure you it will have no affect on his reelection chances. Yes Bob Turner did a great job of holding wiener under 60 (59%)BUT that was before the redistricting lines that will make his district even more Democrat. Currently his district goes into Gerritsen Beach where he probably got about 12% of the vote (Blue collar Irish and Italian - cops firemen and construction workers). Because of a single New York State Senate race won by the Republicans, the GOP has a 1/3 seat at the table for redistricting. Weiner will be demanding that the Gerritsen Beach Republicans be drown in a Queens Democrat district AND the upper Bay Ridge Republicans be assigned to Michael Grimm’s district in Staten Island which fits very well since the Democrats KNOW it was only Vitaliano’s zipper problems that give the seat to a Democrat in 2008. If weiner is forced to resign another Democrat will hold the seat. If weiner’s picture actually showed his weiner it would make no difference to the brain dead Democrats in his district so all over this is going nowhere except putting him on defense because when you are explaining, you AINT winning!


10 posted on 06/01/2011 2:38:36 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Darren McCarty

The voters there need to vote for someone not quite as ‘hard left’.


11 posted on 06/01/2011 2:38:41 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: jmaroneps37

Sorry make that Fossella’s zipper problem. Eric Vitaliano is not a bad guy for a Democrat and true to his wife.


12 posted on 06/01/2011 2:40:34 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Darren McCarty

Few are talking about the possibility that Republicans could pick up Weiner’s seat.”

Does Bawney Fwank know about his seat being picked up?


13 posted on 06/01/2011 2:40:57 PM PDT by jessduntno (Liberalism is socialism in a party dress. And just as masculine.)
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To: Mr. Mojo

Yep - if the GOP can’t win there after Obama’s & the Dems economic disaster and a creep like Weiner they never will.


14 posted on 06/01/2011 2:41:17 PM PDT by demkicker (Helping Democrats Become Extinct - Politically Not Literally!)
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To: Darren McCarty

If Weiner had come out right away and said, “Yeah, I did it, I sent that pic. So What!”, he would be done with it. But now that he’s changed his story a few times and refuses to answer any more questions, he tied himself up into knots and he’s becoming damaged goods.

Anthony, it’s not the crime that will destroy you, it’s the coverup. Remember Nixon?


15 posted on 06/01/2011 2:41:58 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Darren McCarty
A Republican Surge In Weiner's District

Somehow, I don't think this headline is doing the pubs any favors. ;-)

16 posted on 06/01/2011 2:42:01 PM PDT by The Citizen Soldier (I will always remember exactly where I was when Obama made his NCAA picks.)
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To: screaminsunshine

Funny how the Weiner word of the day last week was “HACKED” today it’s “HOAX” & “PRANK”.


17 posted on 06/01/2011 2:42:12 PM PDT by eaglestar
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To: BigEdLB

No I hope this goes on and on it is so funny.


18 posted on 06/01/2011 2:42:24 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (Socialism...Easier said than done.)
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To: Darren McCarty

Weiner was a future liberal hopeful for Mayor of NYC.

Weiner Blew It!!!!


19 posted on 06/01/2011 2:45:40 PM PDT by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: Darren McCarty

The farther a Democrat gets away from morality, decency and responsibility the more likely they are to be re-elected.


20 posted on 06/01/2011 2:46:11 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: Darren McCarty

“Hopefully someone good can run and put this seat in play.”

Not a chance! Weiner will commit erection fraud and win! Just a “head’s up!”


21 posted on 06/01/2011 2:48:48 PM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: jmaroneps37

I agree with you. The marriage to the Moslem korvah should have have been the end of Weiner’s weenie and his career. That it was NOT a career finisher tells you about the voters of his district. Korvah, by the way, is Yiddish for “sharmuta” which means Hillary’s puta.


22 posted on 06/01/2011 2:48:57 PM PDT by juliej
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To: Darren McCarty

You have GOT to be kidding us. But then...a body can hope a bit, right? For change?


23 posted on 06/01/2011 2:50:48 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama said OBL is dead I didn't believe it. Al Qaeda says he's dead and now I do!)
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To: jmaroneps37

Weiner was planning on being the Mayor of NYC when Bloomers term is up.


24 posted on 06/01/2011 2:57:28 PM PDT by Carley (OBAMA, DO YOU HEAR ME NOW.......'67 BORDERS, IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN)
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To: Darren McCarty

Stiff competition?


25 posted on 06/01/2011 3:12:02 PM PDT by Daveinyork
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To: jessduntno

>> Does Bawney Fwank know about his seat being picked up?

I’m sure Bawney is probing into Weiner’s seat.


26 posted on 06/01/2011 3:14:23 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: Darren McCarty

Weiner is experiencing shrinkage (cue George Costanza).


27 posted on 06/01/2011 3:15:59 PM PDT by noiseman (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
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To: lowbridge; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Impy
1) Make sure Weinie runs for re-election. 2) Run a decent right-of-center Republican with history of winning elections and appealing to independents. 3) Find a conservative in the district to file as the "Green Party" candidate and run to Weiner's left on a platform of gay marriage, industrial hemp, Libya withdrawl, creation of a Palestinian state, etc. Make sure to use their official logo with the sunflower plant stuff and get photo-ops wih the CodePink crowd and so on.

The far-left DailyKos nuts will crawl out of the woodwork and show up in droves to vote for the third party candidate instead of the "neo-con zionist". A Republican could win with as little as 34% of the vote with the RAT vote split between perverted Weinie and fake Green Party candidate. Revenge for NY-26. Wonder if the RATs will still think they have a mandate on "medicare"?

28 posted on 06/01/2011 3:25:11 PM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; neverdem; Impy; justiceseeker93; ExTexasRedhead

This thread has a very amusing title. Won’t the scandal be yesterday’s news next year?


29 posted on 06/01/2011 3:29:43 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of love, peace, and goodwill, and if you say that they aren't, they'll kill you)
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To: Darren McCarty
The Republicans should get some folks to run as

  1. Green Party
  2. Communist Party
  3. Socialist Party
  4. Heck, form a Weiner Party and nominate a candidate.
This ought to split the Democrap vote and allow a Repub to get in.

NY-26 in reverse.

Watch the Libs cry and whine!

30 posted on 06/01/2011 3:30:14 PM PDT by eCSMaster (We will fight for America and it starts here in Madison, WI. It starts here. It starts now.)
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To: Darren McCarty

Really?

Thought it was a Weiner surge.


31 posted on 06/01/2011 3:43:00 PM PDT by Vendome ("Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it anyway")
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To: Darren McCarty

Weiner is going to find the Hacker on his own - he doesn’t need any help from the FBI or the Secret Service.

Maybe he can pick up some pointers from that other well known innocent bystander, OJ Simpson, a man who has spent every year of his life since 1994 looking for his wife’s real killer.


32 posted on 06/01/2011 3:45:14 PM PDT by Iron Munro (The purpose of fighting is to win. There is no possible victory in defense. -- John Steinbeck)
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To: Darren McCarty

“. If Weiner stepped down from Congress, Republicans would have a realistic shot at putting it in play.”

Now THAT’S funny. When has a scandal or even real wrongdoing had a democrat step down? That action is only for Republicans.


33 posted on 06/01/2011 3:55:18 PM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: Clintonfatigued; eCSMaster
Well, the article was discussing the possibility of Weiner stepping down from Congress so there would be a special election for the district. It sounds to me like NY-9 is a bit like IL-5 (Rostencowski's former district) in that it's been RAT controlled for decades and normally votes RAT by default, but is less RAT that all the nearby city districts because they basically made it the city's "white seat" to create more black and Hispanic districts.

Whether Weiner is on the ballot or not, I expect the RATs would run a Jewish candidate (or at least an pro-Isreal candidate) because of the large Jewish population of the district. Given how much of the Dem's activist base is vocally anti-Jewish, running a pro-Palestinian & "all troops out of the middle east" candidate would probably cause a sizable split in the Democrat vote. I agree with post #30, we could pull a NY-26 in reverse if we started to recruit fake third party left-wing candidates now. That district has always been GOP vs. Dem races, they've had a vocal Green/Socialist/Communist Party candidate playing a factor. The idea of running someone on the "Anthony Weiner Party" line on the ballot is hilarious as well. We won HI-1 when the Democrat vote was split between two candidates, we could certainly do the same in NY-9.

34 posted on 06/01/2011 4:13:06 PM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: Clintonfatigued; eCSMaster; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; All
Whoever we run as the fake "third party liberal" candidate better get a makeover in order to look the party members more. I believe Jack Davis posed for numerous photo-ops with the american flag, gun shows, and quoted the founding fathers.

Our "Green Party" candidate should at least grow a (preferable white or salt-and-pepper) beard and pony tail, unkempt hair, lecture at a university, and always be seen in public wearing flip-flops. Here are some good templates:





35 posted on 06/01/2011 5:13:13 PM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: lowbridge; Impy; Clemenza; BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued

1920, quite so. However, when tracing back CD histories, especially in NY, the district numbers have all changed over the years (since there once was over 40 districts). The current district was then the 10th (in the 1920s until the ‘40s). There has actually only been just 4 people to occupy that district since 1922 when the last Republican incumbent, Lester Volk, was defeated. Emanuel Celler (from 1923-1973), Elizabeth Holtzman (who beat Celler in the ‘72 primary) (1973-1981) who lose to Al D’Amato for the Senate in ‘80, Chuckie Schumer from 1981-99 (who beat D’Amato), and Weiner since 1999.


36 posted on 06/01/2011 5:23:59 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; Impy

Your senario would be a good one and I hope that Republicans would be wise enough to lure a third-party leftist into the race. Former NYC Councilman Noach Dear would be a good candidate in such a case. I can’t think of any other Republicans who could win.


37 posted on 06/01/2011 5:57:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of love, peace, and goodwill, and if you say that they aren't, they'll kill you)
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To: jmaroneps37

The NYC area has to lose a seat also. I’m not saying Grimm is safe but his district adjoins only the 8th, and Nadler lives in the Manhattan portion. On my reapportionment thread someone tells me that Peter King is safe, and that two D’s will get paired in NYC and two R’s will get paired upstate.

It will be difficult but not impossible for the 6th to remain majority black, but the 9th obviously cannot shift east.

The 10th and 11th have a bit of wiggle room.

The 7th, 12th, and 15th are 44-46% Hispanic. They’ve got a good argument for at least one more majority Hispanic seat.

The Dems just might decide to screw Weiner, as it were.


38 posted on 06/01/2011 8:12:12 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: Darren McCarty; jmaroneps37; lowbridge; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; BillyBoy; ...

I hope that NY Republican state senators insist on keeping together all of those Orthodox Jewish Brooklyn neighborhoods currently split between Nadler’s and Weiner’s districts—Nadler won’t mind getting an all-Manhattan district (although Maloney would be miffed), and Weiner would not have enough standing to complain. It is further proof of the unfairness and arbitrariness of the Voting Rights Act that (according to the prevailing interpretation) requires that NY draw a Hispanic-plurality district that squirrels through parts of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn in order to allow Hispanic voters to “elect the candidate of their choice” but simultaneously permits NY purposely to split Orthodox Jewish communities (which have far more in common with each other both culturally and politically than do Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Venezuelans, Cubans, Argentines and Mexicans from three different boroughs) into two districts so tbat they are helpless minorities in both.


39 posted on 06/02/2011 6:27:08 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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