Skip to comments.Bin Laden Bump Gone, New Poll Shows [Romney 21% Palin 17%]
Posted on 06/07/2011 4:29:31 AM PDT by GonzoII
Any political benefit President Obama received from the death of Osama bin Laden is gone, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows Obama facing a tough re-election battle against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
A slight plurality of Americans now disapproves of Obama, a significant drop since a one-day poll conducted the day after the bin Laden killing showed Obama's approval at a robust 56 percent. Today, just 47 percent of Americans approve of Obama, while 49 percent disapprove. A majority of independents, 53 percent, disapproves of his job performance.
That drop comes as the percentage of Americans who disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy has a hit a new high, 59 percent. More Americans now trust congressional Republicans (45 percent) to handle the economy than trust Obama (42 percent). The poll was conducted over a four-day period from last Thursday to Sunday; of the four nights of interviews, three took place after the disappointing May jobs report was released by the Department of Labor last Friday.
Romney's lead over Obama among registered voters is a narrow, 49 percent to 46 percent advantage. Among all adults, the two are tied at 47 percent.
But Romney's slight edge comes from some unlikely places. According to the poll, Romney runs even among women, a group Obama carried by 13 points against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008. Romney has an 18-point lead among white women; McCain carried that group by only 7 points.
In the Republican primary, Romney has a slight lead over former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, 21 percent to 17 percent. The third-place candidate, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, earns just eight percent of the vote.
But Romney has baggage to contend with before he makes it to a showdown with Obama. By a two-to-one margin, Republicans oppose "the health care reform plan that ... Romney put into place in Massachusetts." Still, 20 percent of those who oppose that health care reform plan still support him for the nomination, and 88 percent support him against Obama.
Though Palin finishes second in the primary, she trails Obama by 15 points in a general-election matchup, and 64 percent of Americans say they definitely would not vote for her for president.
Obama trails Romney among registered voters, but he defeats other Republican candidates, even crossing the 50-percent threshold against each of them. He leads Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. (51 percent to 40 percent); former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (50 percent to 44 percent); former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (50 percent to 40 percent); Palin (55 percent to 40 percent); and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (50 percent to 41 percent).
The poll was conducted June 2-5 by Langer Research Associates, among a sample of 1,002 adults. Results among adults have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent; the margin of error is higher for subgroups.
“just 47 percent of Americans approve of Obama, while 49 percent disapprove.”
And tomorrow we’ll see a cbs poll with 49% approve obuma and 47% disapprove.
Is Cain even in this poll?
Polls are such BS, particulary idiot media polls.
That's the most important news as far as reelection goes IMHO.
Whatever it's worth Romney isn't running away with anything..Palin hasn't even announced and she's basically running even with him.
I would call Palin’s negatives “soft negatives” as most voters don’t follow politics day to day and has the impression of Palin from MSM and SNL. Unlike Hitlery, we haven’t had 15 years of her trying to run healthcare, covering for her husbands infidelity, and stealing FBI files.
Palin has the chance to change the impression independent voters have of her. It will be her biggest challenge, but when people see other average people like them across the country working the campaign, that will go a long way toward changing impressions.
I have to laugh!!
Am I the only one who sees this as good news for Palin?
She hasn't even announced!
It’s well known that when they do these multi candidates vs incumbent. The results get severely skewed. That is why Palin does so bad. They know she’s the biggest threat so the supporters of Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, etc all go against Palin and say they will vote for Obama over her - just to skew results, to keep up the meme that she’s unelectable.
The bottomline, whoever emerges as the GOP nominee will start out with about 47-48% of vote and then go on to trounce Obama.
I will vote for Scott Peterson over Obama if given the choice.
Do they Republicans actually want to win the next election?
If the election is Obama and Romney my choice is to stay in bed that morning and pray for America!
Really people. Lets get past this Romney nonsense and try to win!
Romney - like McCain, but with better hair.
Palin has to change the impression that SIXTY FIVE PERCENT (65%) of all voters have of her. That is the percentage of voters that state that they will DEFINITELY NOT vote for Sarah Palin.
As things stand now, the GOP nomination of Sarah Palin will absolutely guarantee the reelection of Barack Hussein Obama. That is a disaster that America cannot afford.
Unless we get a conservative candidate whose poll numbers are not lower than whale scat at the bottom of the ocean, we will end up with either RINO Romney as President or a reelected Barack Hussein Obama.
Poll: 71% say Palin's unqualified to be president ..... A full 71% of respodnents, including 51% of Republcians, say Palin is not ready to occupy the White House. Exactly two-thirds of independents say Palin's not qualified ...
What do you mean Gugliani gets 8% ? and he is in third place?
This poll is bogus.
Only a 20% deficit? not that hard to turn around in a month :P
Posted on June 04 2011 - 11:20 PM - Posted by: Nicole Coulter
So, Sarah Palin can’t win independents, blah, blah, blah. It’s all we hear.
Let’s talk a little about this red herring, shall we?
First off, it’s not true that Palin can’t win independents.
Palin won the governorship of Alaska quite handily. Almost two-thirds of Alaskans are not registered with a political party. They are … um, independent. (Kinda like a lot of the Rolling Thunder folks, Gov. Palin met last weekend). Alaska’s unique characteristics, including a 15% Native Alaskan population, “provide fertile ground for the emergence of candidates and ideas that at times appear to include the whole political spectrum,” according to one study.
Hmmm … candidates and ideas that appeal to the whole political spectrum? That sorta sounds like Palin when she enjoyed an 88% approval rating in the summer of 2008 after passing bi-partisan legislation focusing on reforming government and developing energy resources.
Secondly, in all this talk about independents, let’s get real. There are very few actual “swing” voters. Most so-called independents tend to vote predominantly for one party or the other despite choosing not to affiliate formally with the party they usually vote for.
A recent report in Salon explained:
Rutgers political scientist David Redlawsk estimates that 5 million people voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and then voted for a Republican in 2010.
Boy, 5 million people! That is not even 6 percent of the entire voting electorate! (Or maybe even less, because the number of people who claim they voted for Obama is probably high.)
Truly independent voters are still mythical creatures. They exist in the imaginations of commentators who’ve spent most of their adult lives in Washington, D.C. Otherwise, the electorate is largely made up of Democratic voters and Republican voters. In this last election, more Republican voters showed up than Democratic voters. In 2008, the opposite was true.
Wait just a gosh darn minute! You’re telling me that this whole 2012 presidential election could just boil down to turnout? No freaking way! So basically the party that mobilizes more excited voters than the other wins? Unbelievable!
So, wait, um, doesn’t that suggest that we need a nominee who generates … like … actual enthuasiam? Wasnt that why Palin was added to the ticket in 2008, because McCain generated so little enthusiasm among conservatives? Didnt she generate that enthusiasm, attracting tens of thousands to rallies and raising tens of millions seemingly overnight, which was almost unheard of for a VP nominee?
And won’t the loosely-affiliated independent voters be so fed up with Obama by 2012 they’ll elect whomever is opposing him? So doesnt that mean that whoever wins the GOP nomination, has a solid chance of being elected?
Howard Dean thinks so.
And what does it take to win a nomination? Oh yeah, base support. (Remember when Hillary and Barack were fighting for their base by seeing who could present the most liberal stance on Iraq and soaking it to the rich?) Thats what you DO in a primary. You appeal to your freaking BASE. Then you PIVOT to the middle for the general election. To suggest that someone should pivot to appeal to independents in primary season is rather ridiculous, don’t you think?
These idiots are arguing about winning over Democratic independents … while taking the conservatives and independent Tea Partiers for GRANTED.
So, next time you hear some GOP know-it-all professing that Palin could never win over independents, ask him/her if Mitt Romney can win over the base. Because if you want to become president, you first gotta convince your own side. (Sorry Mitt … manmade global warming and mandates aren’t gonna cut it on our side.) Then you can make your case to the other side. If you head into the general election with weak base support, youre gonna lose. Because while the base may hold their noses to vote for you they will never generate the enthusiasm youll need to carry the day.
Let’s all seriously try to imagine this many people greeting Romney at his next campaign rally.
Also, I will add the Media is really pushing Romney, which means of course, they know he will lose to Obama. And if he get the nomination, they will go negative on him. Just like they did to their "Maverick" pal McCain.
The bottom line is that Sarah Palin's poll numbers are so extremely toxic that her endorsed GOP candidate in her own State of Alaska lost a U.S. Senate election to a WRITE-IN candidate with a hard to spell name.
In politics, you simply can't do any worse than that.
Some candidates are far more toxic than others and Sarah Palin, outside of her adoring 8% of all voters, has devastatingly toxic poll numbers.
The GOP needs a conservative candidate with poll numbers that are not in the Donald Trump "joke candidate" range.
Palin 17% Unannounced non-candidate (at this time)
For those who say she isn't running, it's looking more & more like you are wrong.
I think she is playing out her own strategy and timing schedule for maximum impact. Certainly not until after the movie The Undefeated is released.
This film, although she didn't commission it, is too juicy not to take advantage of. The bus tour, while not a campaign tour, was brilliant. Upstaging Romney's (the so-called “front runner”) announcement was genius. She didn't step on his toes, she (politically) smashed them, with a wink and a smile. Page one (Palin)vs page three (Romney), huge page one photo (Palin)vs small page one photo (Romney).
I loved Sarah Palin. Then I began falling out of love with her. Now, I am falling back in love with her all over again. I was for her running, I was against her running. Now, I'll be tremendously dissappointed if she doesn't run.
I think she is the Dems worst nightmare, regardless of what they say. Huntsman? “C’mon Man”. Cain? “C’mon Man”. Pawlenty, Santorum, Newt? C'MON MAN”.
Romney and Bachmann are her only formidable opponents. Bachmann (whom I also love) is just not well enough known. I think Palin beats her easily.
Romney has two millstones around his neck (well, at least two big ones), Romneycare and Mormonism. He is stuck with both of them. They will be his undoing.
A good campaign idea would be for Palin to suggest for everyone to send Romney a pair of Flip Flops. (dollar store quality). It could be fun, the media would cover this.
Run, Sarah, RUN!
Source? You've used the poll numbers to discredit Palin, can you now use it to back your "8%"?
Never underestimate the power of the MSM or the Leftist internet following;
Does this accurately describe the Alaska race? Me thinks not, when the hard to spell name is Murkowski (which they allowed various spellings of), the “Kennedy” name of Alaska. Joe Miller, was a flawed candidate with corruption baggage that Alaskans had had enough of. To blame this loss on Palin is ridiculous and you know it. (see my tag line, you should try it).
I used to place Bachmann in the top field. However. since she added ex McCain staffers and that ex Huckabee RHINO to her entourage I have lost faith that she is a new hope of a true Constitutional politician. In any case for me there is still Cain, Palin, West(if he can be persuaded), and perhaps just a few others who one can be as certain as possible to be Founding Fathers supportive.
It is far easier to LOSE points than to GAIN points and Sarah Palin's trend has been "going South" since her introduction to the national stage. Lately, the more exposure she gets, the farther South she goes.
If there is going to be a 20% difference, it will most likely be that the number who will "definitely NOT" vote for Sarah Palin will rise from the current 65% to 85%.
LOL, ROFL, HA, HA, HA, He, he, he, Oh my bellie hurts! You are soooooooooo funny. Tee he, Tee he.
It’s not an out-of-hand statement to say that poll is garbage.
Is Cain even in this poll?
Well, at least he places. He does far better in others. What is bothersome about his one (I know its just one poll) is the 60+% that said they definitely would NOT vote for Palin.
If she runs, she has a lot of work to do even if this poll is an outlier...which is hard to say this far out.
Herman Cain *could* be that guy.
So soros is footing the bill to flood FR with Romney supporters. As has been said...Game On!
It’s good we are in as much agreement as you indicate. However. I disagree that the USA is not ready for another black POTUSA. The fact that one black(?) man has been shown to be the anti thesis of what the Founders set up will not diminish the goal of any other qualified black person. Black, white, red, or whatever color I believe the body of USA citizens will come to once again see that the USA is an exceptional Nation if the right person is the light for that perception. I believe Cain belongs in that group of right persons. His education was well based. His work experience including high corporate achievements is solid. I understand he has had navy service. I understand he was on the board of governors of the Kansas City Fed Reserve branch. He is a proven communicator. And above all to date he demonstrates a true understanding of what the Founders of this Nation intended.
Well, when one considers the outstanding competition on the conservative side, it’s clear that Sarah stands to gain the lion’s share of their supporters’ votes as they drop out. Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, and even many Paul fans will naturally drift toward Sarah as the primaries continue.
She’s already at 17%, and voters have not yet been educated about Milt’s dismal record as governor. And her movie has yet to be released, which is extremely impressive, according to Mark Levin and others. Bob