I'm not sure there's a plan. think what's going on is that Obama has been running on the fumes of Bush's policies. Now that OBL is dead it's time to change strategy. And Obama is lost because he can function only on the coattails of someone else's plan. He is no executive. He's simply a follower whose only real strength (if you can call it that) is a gilded tongue.
But he does have a reelection strategy. And with the economy tanking, he's going to have to look to somewhere as a source of accomplishment, of which there has been so little.
An Afghan withdrawal is going to start being sold as 0’s big foreign policy triumph.