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Incumbents lose, Democrats win with California redistricting proposal (editorial)
The Washington Post ^ | June 10, 2011 | Aaron Blake

Posted on 06/13/2011 6:20:31 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued

Republican Reps. Elton Gallegly, David Dreier, Gary Miller and Brian Bilbray all get the short end of the stick in the new map and could have difficulty returning to Congress. The GOP would also have to defend Reps. Dan Lungren and Jeff Denham, who saw things get tougher in their respective districts.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Lois Capps, Loretta Sanchez and Jim Costa got more vulnerable, while Rep. Dennis Cardoza remains in potentially competitive district.

In the end, chaos is the order the day in the new map — forcing many incumbents to reevaluatw their political futures, with almost half of the state’s 52 current members of Congress drawn into districts with another incumbent (a 53rd seat is vacant).

The map will now be aired publicly and will have to be approved by Aug. 15, with nine of 14 commissioners required to support it. The commission is comprised of five Republicans, five Democrats and four who don’t belong to either party.

Here’s a look at some of the storylines the map has created (with a big thanks to Mitchell’s great breakdowns).

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: prop11; redistricting

1 posted on 06/13/2011 6:20:34 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: randita; perfect_rovian_storm; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; ExTexasRedhead; ...

This is not as bleak as the MSM makes it to be. Some DemocRATS will have to run in more marginal districts.


2 posted on 06/13/2011 6:22:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Mandatory voter I.D. is the only way to go. If you want to vote, prove who you are and where you live. Otherwise, TAKE A HIKE!


3 posted on 06/13/2011 6:27:05 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (When the going gets tough, the tough check themselves into "rehab".)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I dunno. I’m in CA and the local GOP is sounding like this is the end (for lack of a better term). All I know is, after the 2010 election here in CA, this is flat awful.


4 posted on 06/13/2011 6:27:20 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Clintonfatigued
Wow, connecting La Verne with El Monte... Yeah, there's a combination... Glad to see that they've decided to dilute my vote for more mythical ‘Hispanic’ seats. I don't imagine Drier’s going to stick around much longer, might as well take that big ole’ purse of public cash and hightail it out of town.
5 posted on 06/13/2011 6:34:42 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

when dems run the redistricting process, they are ruthless, ie maximize dem districts, eg ca and il.
When gop runs it, it is gentlemanish 50-50 outcome.

Stupid party..


6 posted on 06/13/2011 6:37:59 PM PDT by heiss
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To: SmithL; no dems

A few DemocRAT incumbents who aren’t accustomed to tough races will have to run in more marginal districts. Some will have gotten rusty.


7 posted on 06/13/2011 6:45:57 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Clintonfatigued

California as a state is done for so it going down with mostly the democrtic party to blame is no big deal.I do like that the federal districts will make it harder for a few of them.


8 posted on 06/13/2011 6:49:02 PM PDT by chris_bdba
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To: FlingWingFlyer
plus......in addition to the picture ID, they must show that they have a net positive contribution to the system...a positive tax payment....over and above payroll taxes....

"skin in the game"....as they say.....

....if they can't show this, their vote don't count....deadbeat-Americans can't be allowed to control the elected "public servents", for they will ALWAYS elect the politicians who promise them the most "stuff".

Even "retired" people can prove that they had a lifetime positive tax payments, even if they cannot while they live on their savings....

...

9 posted on 06/13/2011 6:52:01 PM PDT by B.O. Plenty (Give war a chance...)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Typical of the WP to ignore the real losers in CA are the taxpaying citizens.


10 posted on 06/13/2011 6:53:25 PM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you do not, no explanation is possible")
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To: Clintonfatigued

California is the communists capital of America.


11 posted on 06/13/2011 7:22:40 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: Logical me

I thought it was New York or Mass, actually any blue state should be considered.


12 posted on 06/13/2011 7:45:58 PM PDT by repubpub ("History, in general, only informs us of what bad government is." Thomas Jefferson)
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To: kingu

Wow is Dyer out of Rancho Cucamonga & Upland?

Guess we get Joe Baca!


13 posted on 06/13/2011 7:52:26 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Pelosi: Obamacare indulgences for sale.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Lungren and Mack are RINO’s. The redrawing benefits any and all the Dems by harassing (moving) the Conservatives and Republicans and watering down the areas that are strong C & R voters.


14 posted on 06/13/2011 7:55:18 PM PDT by repubpub ("History, in general, only informs us of what bad government is." Thomas Jefferson)
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To: RIghtwardHo

If you regress only on ‘10 US House vote, GOP gains a seat.
But that may be a mistake.

It looks like 25 safe seats for the Dems, another 7 likely.
10 safe seats for the GOP, another 4 likely.

Remaining 7:

West Garden Grove: US House, AG, Gov a tie for GOP

East Ventura:did vote GOP in US House, Senate, Atty Gen
Dem in Treasurer, Controller, President, Gov, Party ID
Kings: Same
Merced: Same
San Luis Obispo-Santa Barbara: Same

Sacramento County: House, Sen, AG, PID for GOP

Stanislaus: House, Sen, AG, Gov for GOP (post story says GOP clearly favored here).


15 posted on 06/13/2011 8:23:26 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: Clintonfatigued
four who don’t belong to either party So they say...
16 posted on 06/13/2011 8:57:34 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: scrabblehack

CA demographics are changing daily in the Rat’s favor. The GOP will lose at least 5 seats (maybe closer to 10) between Illinois and California.

The GOP will gain a few here and there. But in most large states (Florida, Texas, Ohio, PA), they’re spread pretty thin after their 2010 gains. They will have to concentrate on strengthening their marginal districts, rather than creating new GOP districts.

Redistricting will be a wash.


17 posted on 06/13/2011 10:04:28 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Clintonfatigued
We lived in CA for 19 years only moving out in the fall of 2009. No ID is needed to vote there. Motor-Voter has been the downfall of this beautiful state. Require ID and citizenship and Ca would rebound. Otherwise it is simply lost.
18 posted on 06/13/2011 10:15:33 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: originalbuckeye

I was thinking of visiting California, but I realized I needed to renew my passport if I was planning on leaving the United States like that.


19 posted on 06/13/2011 10:25:49 PM PDT by Lazamataz (I am utterly opinionless. About everything. Even the fact I have no opinion.)
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To: All; Clintonfatigued
When I looked at the draft of the local San Diego County area, I noticed what they did with Bilbray's district. They hacked it in half, added a sliver of Hunter's and merged it with a current Dem district. They then carve a new, very likely Dem, district east of the existing one downtown.

It doesn't make any sense to create a new congressional seat east of downtown while merging the current one covering downtown with suburbs some 20 miles north.

A bit of history: the woman representing the Dem spot (Susan Davis) beat Bilbray in 2000. He had won that seat in '94. A few years later he moved so the GOP could hold on to Randy Cunningham's seat when that jerk went to prison.

The Dems would love a rematch between Davis and Bilbray.

This is nothing short of an attempt to gain House seats without competing in elections.

20 posted on 06/14/2011 3:27:18 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Just say no to "the grunter" John King moderating future debates.)
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To: All
Let's not forget Prop 14 from last November will also be in effect for 2012.

Prop 14 prohibits political parties from nominating candidates in a primary and only the top 2 vote getters of any party move into the general. Write-ins are not allowed in the general.

Dems will run FAKE candidates like they ran that fake "TEA Party" guy in NY26. The SEIU in CA has decided to help elect Republicans, thread here. You *know* what kind of Republicans they'll choose to push.

21 posted on 06/14/2011 4:06:35 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Just say no to "the grunter" John King moderating future debates.)
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To: Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; randita; calcowgirl

We REALLY need the 2004 Presidential numbers here.

As a general thing I like the drawing of districts without regard to where any of the incumbents live.

Sounds like Bilbray is our guy in the most trouble. Gallegly too.

Capps and Loretta Sanchez are rats with tougher districts.

Sounds pretty much like a push. I guess you can say that’s good for the rats since they already have a large advantage in seats.

Remarkably in 4 elections (after the initial 2002 election with current lines that hardly saw any change itself, 1 R seat changed to D and 1 new R seat) which saw the majority party changed twice, a grand total of 1 Cali seat out of 53 changed parties (11th R to D in 2006). Hell of a gerrymander.


22 posted on 06/14/2011 6:02:19 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

I expect that Elton Gallegly will retire.

Brian Bilbray has won tough races before and he’s the only one who has a chance in the district he’s running in. I’m grateful to him for taking such a chance.

Bob Filner is going to run for Mayor of San Diego. If he wins, the candidate to replace him will likely be state Senator Juan Vargas, a moderate who is pro-life and supported Prop 8.

The Central Valley districts are definitely ones to watch.

Lois Capps will probably be challenged by Abel Maldonado. He’s not a great conservative, but still much better than Capps.


23 posted on 06/14/2011 10:59:11 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Clintonfatigued
The commission is comprised of five Republicans, five Democrats and four who don’t belong to either party.

Those four are, by default, Democrat scumbags. This is a done deal.

24 posted on 06/14/2011 11:02:53 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: randita; perfect_rovian_storm; SmithL; no dems; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; ExTexasRedhead

Here are the proposed maps:

http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-first-drafts.html


25 posted on 06/14/2011 7:05:17 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Impy

CA-20 is hurting economically because of over reaching EPA regulations which are cutting off access to water sources for farmers/ranchers. Costa could probably have been beaten last time with a stronger challenger, esp. a Latino.


26 posted on 06/14/2011 7:56:39 PM PDT by randita
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To: Clintonfatigued

I’d take the vote against Pelosi but I hate that twerp Abel Maldonado.


27 posted on 06/15/2011 4:27:30 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: randita; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj

Yes if Vidak could almost win I think a Hispanic candidate would have.

Cali was a big disappointment in 2010.

I thought Harmer was a lock to take back the 11th.

And when they counted the abeseetee ballots the Tran-Sanchez race wasn’t even close, Tran was pushed under 40%, with a beefy 7 or 8% for some independent I never heard of.


28 posted on 06/15/2011 4:34:04 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

Vidak and Harmer didn’t lose. They just merely counted up “enough” votes to make sure McNerney and Costa “won.” The national GOP, of course, went gutless again on not challenging those “results.”


29 posted on 06/15/2011 4:54:02 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Of course. But you can’t steal it unless it’s close enough.


30 posted on 06/15/2011 5:24:12 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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