Posted on 06/15/2011 9:27:51 PM PDT by neverdem
“All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”
I’ve managed to get a copy of the official press release provided by the Southwest Research Institute Planetary Science Directorate to MSM journalists, for today’s stunning AAS announcement and it is reprinted in full here:
WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN?
MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED
Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.
A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces:
http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results...
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
Uhhhh!
I think we have seen the bottom of the cycle and signs point to increased sunspot activity. The article is wrong.
See this:
“Having a Solar Blast - UPDATE”
(incredible photos and video at this link)
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News060711-blast.html
Is this good? I’ve heard concerns about solar flares being so harmful....if there arent going to be any for a period of time, then isnt that good?
Look like 10 and 6 meter DX will suck for a while. B-) If Stew Perry, W1BB, (now SK, Silent Key) was still alive, he’d probably drool at this since he was a fan of the 160 meter amateur radio band (just above the AM band) from the 1920’s up until his death in the 1990’s. During the Dalton and Maunder Minimums, they said that if shortwave radio existed then, the MUF (Maximum Useable Frequency) would have been like 2000 kc (top of the 160 meter band) down to even 1700 kc (top of the AM radio band!) during the day and at night, 4000 kc, top of the 80 meter band although intercontinental DX will be possible as well.
I think you still can have flares but not as much as there would be when the Sun is active.
So what does all that mean?
No its not good. We could possibly see an ice age and for the poster before you the article is not wrong. The only ones saying look out for an active sun are the ones that want money to prepare. The good news is it would take more than a lifetime for an ice age to set in. Also there’s nothing we can do about it or to cause it.
Also there’s nothing we can do about it or to cause it.
Exactly right.
Either you didn't read the article, or you don't understand it.
“Nothing we can do about it”??? Surely you jest, man! Why, if we only collected another few trillion more in taxes, we would certainly be able to deal with such a trivial problem.
I absolutely “love” the Warmist’s cover up for the low sunspot activity that’s occurring...”It will sure keep Global Warming down.”
Well, it would mean a lot if you are a shortwave radio listener or an amateur radio operator. I know a lot of the shortwave band could become useless for long range radio if the sun would quiet down. You would also need bigger antennas at the lower frequencies.
I have a CC Crain Short Wave radio that is pretty good, I think. I listen to SW about once a week and have noticed that the reception is not like it has been in the past.
Thanks for your explanation.
Dang. Failed policies of the Bush administration again!
How sure are you about that Fossil, or are you just trying to start something??? We should be approaching the PEAK in cycle 24 as we type; it ain't happening. The "experts" keep moving the date back but the last peak was ~2000 and you know where an ~11 year cycle should put us, no? Anyhow, if the current research is accurate, cycle 25 may be a no show.
The bad news is, all those folks from the rust belt will be moving south. Intensive cultural retraining may be necessary for them to become acclimated to "our" ways.
Yeah. Bush was always playing golf and spending our money flying to Texas. Those were bad habits that rubbed off on 0bama when he became Resident. 0bama is trying to break those habits but it’s going to take time. We must be patient. After all, he’s focused on the economy like a laser.
FUBO!!!
However, we can be sure women and minorities will be worst affected.
You really ought to read the article.
Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2734777/posts
Scientists predict rare ‘hibernation’ of sunspots
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2734864/posts
New insights on how solar minimums affect Earth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2734760/posts
Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2734593/posts
It also appears that volcanic activity has increased over the past few months. Increased volcanic activity, if it puts enough extra sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, can cause global cooling. Increased volcanic activity was known to precede some of the colder spikes during the Maunder Minimum, and there was generally increased volcanic activity during the Minimum.
Actually, if these predictions hold, we won’t be hearing as much from the AGW crowd for a while. It will allow for plenty of time to develop alternate energy sources — which would not be subsidized. The future of cap and trade is fading.
You are correct on both, but after reading the article I stand by my statement. No man understands how the Sun works. Some delude themselves that they do.
1. All sunspot cycles are not the same length. How long is a sunspot cycle (11 years? 14 years?)? It is however long it takes.
2. There are more components to sunspot data than the number of sunspots or the geomagnetic activity.
3. Weather patterns are determined by sunspot activity and somewhat by volcanic activity (which may be related to sunspot and planetary events.
Accurate data past sunspot numbers are a fairly resent thing. So when using geomagnetic activity to predict the future we are using a fairly short period of time to draw conclusions from.
I am not a physicist, climatologist or earth scientist. But I do have a clear understanding of RF and electromagnetic waves. I have been a Ham for over 35 years and hold both an Amateur Extra and a GROL. I am/was a builder, not an appliance operator.
I have many friends in Las Cruces where the meeting took place. I have great respect for many who work in the Labs in NM.
I don't know anything about SwRI. I do know that a lot of "Science" today is more about funding than about honesty in results. That knowledge was shaped by friend who worked in research groups during my 14 years in NM. And by the fact that my father-in-law was connected to that research by his 40 years in the weapons industry.
In my opinion we are at the bottom of the current sunspot cycle and beginning to come out of the minimum. I draw that conclusion from the number of solar flares and by the weather patterns where I live. It was 106 degrees here 2 days ago. We are in the worst drought in this part of Texas in over 100 years. The last time we had similar local weather conditions here was back in 1895.
In my best Seinfeld voice: "No....I don't think you do."
Neither this paper...or the 1/2 dozen other papers I have read about this subject over the last 2 days are talking about cycle 24. They are talking about cycle 25.
I AM a meteorologist...have done a lot of space wx forecasting (forcibly and reluctantly at first...starting in 2002)...and a solar cycle is NOT generally how long it takes as if it is some random number. It is usually 11 years. But again...that is not the point of the article. They are speaking of the NEXT cycle...which would peak in 2024.
There are certain things that start NOW in order for the next cycle to appear 13 years from now. They aren't there. There has been MUCH speculation for a while now that we could be headed into another Maunder min. There has been a tremendous drop in solar flux...magnetism...etc. Low sunspot counts are just part of the reason we think we are headed into a min and this research seems to back it up.
No man understands how the sun works? Well...just because you don't doesn't mean there aren't those scientists that have a real good understanding. Are there some mysteries left? Sure...but you make it sound as if all of mankind is back in the dark ages about the workings of the sun...alongside with you.
You may be a fossil...but there are others that aren't. And yes...we are coming into SolarMAX. However...our drought in Texas has more to do with La Nina than it does with the Solar cycle.
Another problem inherited from the Bush administration, I see.
Do you work for a TV station, a research institute or the government?
My wife was a fan of Dan True. (an Amarillo weather forecaster) He wrote a book once that described his years predicting the weather. In his description he marveled about how his employer could spend millions of dollars on equipment and still the best he could do was be right a bit more than 50% of the time. But when you come right down to it, weather forecasting at TV stations is not about public service (there is an element of that) but about making money. The more they get the public excited about the weather the more viewers they have the more ad money they make. That is why they spend so much on equipment.
The Maunder Minimum was from roughly 1650 to 1700. Correct? What method other than tree rings gives scientist the data to support that? I am not saying it is impossible, but I am skeptical about those who use scientific data covering a period that far back.
I remember how far off the "brightest and best" scientist were when they used remote measurements to analyze the Saturn Rings. Then when they actually used a satellite up close it was radically different.
An ice age wouldn't happen in a year, but significant changes could happen in as little as a decade. During the last major ice, the British Isles went from being warmer than today, to largely covered by glaciers, in about a century.
Interesting, all the records being broken in this area (snowfall depth, spring river height) date from the same general era. It may be that you are correct about the cycle.
BFL
1895
That year was not just pulled from some database. Some of my ancestors moved to Haskell County, TX in 1886 but my great-grandfather left in 1895 for 3 years because of a similar extreme drought.
My father is 85 and he experienced the drought in 1952 but has told me he thinks this is worse, and reflected back on what he was told about the 1895 events.
My family has farmed here since 1886. Other of the family members stayed here in the 1895 drought. Crop production is a lot more than rainfall, sunshine and temperatures. The nightime temperatures have a big effect on some crops.
The farmers are always talking about the weather. They are unscientific on a lot of subjects, but know when weather changes.
The liberal response to a predicted Maunder Minimum: http://m.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/solar-minimum-climate/
We are certainly in agreement on that statement.
Yes, I knew there were observations on temperature and sunspot count a long way back. I did not know it went back to the 1600's. Even so, I am sure the data is not that complete.
Yep. I come from a long line of farmers myself (over 300 years where I grew up).
Mine may be limited to a garden, but I pay attention when the locals here talk about the weather--especially my elders, and my wife is from a local family who have been minding the weather longer than mine.
The right 50% of the time is a joke amongst weather men...we are right much more than that. The forecaster who is only as right as a coin flip really needs to give it up. I can put out a forecast for SE TX right now...for the next 3 months...and be correct within a small MOE 90% of the time based on how I see the long term patterns setting up. Here's a hint: The drought will continue through September and it will be above normal temps.
And yes...TV is about money. They just regurgitate what the MWS is saying. Very few TV weather people are actual mets. Most are broadcast journalists with a weather emphasis...like a sports caster for weather.
To answer your other question about the Maunder Min: It was from abt 1645 - 1715. It was actually very well observed. Picard and Cassini (and numerous others) carried out direct observations of the sun. Those observations have been preserved...correlated and cross-referenced. So we know there was an absence. If I remember correctly, sunspot observation started in the late 1500's or early 1600's and they observed with their own eyes numerous sunspots...then watched the sunspots disappear for 70 years.
Now...couple this with a reversal of the PDO...and we are likely to see a period of very cold weather over the next 30-40 years.
BTW...I see you are into HAM. HAM radio is something I know little about (I am getting another shortwave...but also want to get into HAM as part of my prepper-preperations). Any recommendations for learning a little more?
So my observations would point in the opposite of yours.....
Yep, extreme weather variability during sunspot minimums and maximums.
It is simple enough today to get a Ham ticket. The question pool is given. If you have a technical background it is easy to pick it up.
There are 3 classes of written exams. Tech, General and Extra.
You can download the question pool here:
http://www.arrl.org/question-pools
—
Practice exams can be done here:
—
Morse is another thing. For some it is easy for others it is not. It is mostly repetition and takes several months normally to get to 13 WPM (20 WPM for Extra).
I have taught both Amateur and Commercial radio license prep courses.
The exams themselves are given by volunteer examiners. (when I got my first ticket I had to set before a FCC examiner, had to drive to Dallas for it.) Now most cities have examiners and local clubs often give classes.
Most Hams today are appliance operators. Not very technical.
Actually they are not. It is not about Hot or Cold, but about extreme weather variability. Some locations extremely cold, other locations hot. Some location extremely dry other locations extremely wet. There is a correlation between that and the sunspot minimums and maximums.
The research substantiating a protracted solar minimum is extensive: Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.
1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”
2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia). From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”
3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)
4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”
5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report: “ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”[EA]
6. Dr. Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”
7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”
8. Dr’s. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”
9. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades…. It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada).
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include:
“Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
11. Dr. Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that… Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”
12. Dr. Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer.
Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.
13.Dr’s. Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
14. Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said:
“Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface…. Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”
15. Dr’s. Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr. Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”
16. Dr’s. Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China.
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”
Objective? Yes. But I don't see any evidence of it so I am skeptical. The AGW idiots have abandoned the "Warming" term and now talk about climate change. Their story is still a total lie.
The evidence is the drought. It will be persistent with little respite for the forseeable future. Weather patterns are changing and it may well be permanent.
They are talking about a trend in place for lower sun activity in the future. Nasa had been expecting an active solar trend over the next couple of years but this research shows that to be a false expectation given the activity on the sun. The sun is going to calm down from today’s sun activity rather than ratchet up.
You are talking about recent episodes of sun activity which does not have much to do with the trends being discussed in the article. The solar ejection you are referring to was a doozy!
I think it is good. Won’t be too great if the water melon liberals are successful in raising energy prices through cutting our supplies, rationing and taxation. It is going to be colder than Algore expected.
Drought is a local/regional issue. It is an indicator of weather variability, not long term climate change. We are experiencing drought and floods both in various places in the U.S. I still see no evidence of Global Cooling or Global Warming.
BUT, the extreme weather variability could lead to food supply problems. Unpredictable weather patterns (short term) make it very difficult to adjust crop production.
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The above graph covers cycles 21 - 23. Notice that in solar cycles 21 and 22, the irradiance, sunspot numbers, and solar flare index are closely correlated, but in cycle 23 the solar flare index goes way south. Also, solar cycle 24 was very late in getting started, and even when started looks like it will be a very low cycle (models currently point to something like the Dalton Minimum, I'm thinking it could wind up even lower).
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