Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Plurality of GOP primary voters prefer Palin to stay out in 2012
Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the partys presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
I would just love to hear the SPECIFIC rationale on how, in any way, shape or form, a Sarah Palin candidacy is “bad for the party”.
This estabishment doesn’t want a bunch of conservatives mucking up their agenda.
This estabishment doesn’t want a bunch of conservatives mucking up their agenda.
How many black voters are we talking about here? A couple dozen?
There really isn’t anyone now in the race who I feel passionate about. Sigh. We just might get another 4 years of the marxist at this rate.
why is palin the only one that is being discourage to run, while all the other candidates who have much less support than she does are not. It sound to me, that they’re afraid that PAlin will beat the other candidates they prefer
It is humbly submitted that the MAJORITY of conservatives
prefer Rasmussen and the MSM to commit Seppuku.
Anyone for any of the non-Palin candidates or potential candidates would think it bad for her to enter the race. Jeesh! Rasmussen seems to be on a stop-Palin bender.
You won’t hear one from the RINOs who run the party, they simply don’t like her, she’s a danger to their power base; and, they won’t give it up without trying their best to destroy her. They aren’t any different than the ‘rats/MSM who are terrified of her.
My memory is that Reagan had to deal with the same, huge numbers of voters that eventually went for Reagan out of desperation for change, were a little afraid of him, and that fear lingered for the first couple of years of his presidency.
if palin truly don’t have the support in the gop party, then she will lose the primary, so whats the big deal, let her run
Just how many black Republican primary voters are there in the first place? When talking about the Republican primaries, I'm afraid the black voting demographic is entirely irrelevant due to a lack of measurable numbers.
I am convinced that Rasmussen is deceptively skewing results to try and help the establishment. They are the same pollsters who claimed after the debate that Mitt Romney was still “#1” Yeah, right.
What I find interesting in this thread and other threads is this — FReepers would support Rasmussen when his polls support the desired outcome they want to see.
But when the results of a poll suddenly turns against what they want, they call BS.
How about straight from the horses website?
Well, we knew after last week’s email witch hunt fiasco, that the MSM would have to find some kind of new tactic to try to keep Sarah out of the race.
Now it’s WE who want her to stand down.
It’s a nice try, but the results of this poll fly in the face of nearly every other metric on Palin’s popularity. I call FAIL.
DING DING DING!
In all 15 posts, once again intrepid Freepers have all nailed it.
Palin as the non-establishment candidate represents a very real danger to progressives and RINOS.
This is the interesting number and coincides what Rush seems to be seeing - that women don't want Sarah running more than men.
I would say that, if you are a woman and hate Sarah because of her looks, you should elect her President because nothing ages a person more than four years as President.
RE: Mr. obama has 45-52% approval rating in my polling for over a year and a half now.
I don’t think Rasmussen’s polls on Obama’s approval rating conflict with your polls. His polls consistently show Obama’s ratings going NEGATIVE.
This particular poll however pertains to Sarah Palin and what most Republicans prefer. It isn’t about Obama.
RE: if palin truly dont have the support in the gop party, then she will lose the primary, so whats the big deal, let her run
SURE. But what cutoff should be reached before we conclude she isn’t running?
Horse crap website.
If you don’t like the tune, just shoot the piano player.
There must be something to report, or they would not be doing it.
I’m a Palin supporter, and I want her in, and everybody else who wants to be. In their good time, on their own terms. You think you can do better than she can? You think your candidate can do better than she can? Just bring it. If you, as a candidate, think your success depends mainly on some other candidate staying out, rather than what you say, what you do and what you believe, you don’t think much of yourself. If you think your candidate’s success depends mainly on that, rather than his or her merits, you don’t think much of your candidate. And maybe you’re right.
These are female REPUBLICAN primary voters, not shallow, flighty Democrats, therefore I don’t believe it’s about Palin’s looks. It has to be something else.
If Palin wishes to run, she can run. All she has to do is file the paperwork, pay the fees, and announce. I doubt any of the others are pumped at their chances either. There are no promises, but you won’t know unless you enter the race.
Nobody is stopping her.
“Bad” if Palin enters the Primary means “bad” (for the other candidates the ruling elite) if Palin enters the primary!
Yes there is an agenda , of course.
I didn’t leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me.
Well, it goes with the recent effort to puff Bachman’s performance in the last debate, which was good but no homerun.
About 3 million. About 8% of blacks of the estimated 39,000,000 vote Republican.
Scott Rassmussen is horse crap? Interesting....
These are probably the same people who think that Mitt Romney is super awesome and the bees knees(Too much I Love Lucy LOL) the progressives in the GOP want Romney to be their nominee SO badly..so they will do whatever it takes to make sure that happens
Cherry pickin to get statistics toward a predetermined % ain’t honest.
I guess if you make it through two hours without a gaffe , it’s considered a big success, whether you actually say anything of substance or not.
I tnink that in the end, events will determine who gets the nomination. Lincoln was a dark house for sure in 1859.
Of course this is absurd on its face.
The only real reason someone would want someone to stay out is if they thought they could win. And someone wins by typically getting a plurality of the votes.
So this is saying something that a plurality of those polled think Palin should stay out because they fear that a plurality of those voting would vote her in?
Makes no sense to me. Not that I would expect it to.
Because if she declares, she has to give up the book profits, and all that “stuff” she has suddenly gained in the last year or so.
I think she is still planning on running for the Senate in Arizona. But the same rules may apply so time will tell.
RE: Scott Rassmussen is horse crap? Interesting....
He is crap now because the poll results aren’t favorable to what a lot of people want.
He’ll be back in favor when/if the poll swings the other way.
I like Palin, and I would vote for her in a heartbeat, but the poll results sound about right to me. I know a lot of Republicans more conservative than myself who don’t care for Palin.