Posted on 06/19/2011 6:06:47 PM PDT by randita
Let’s Talk About Redistricting By MICAH COHEN
The following is an edited transcript of an interview with David Wasserman, the House Editor of The Cook Political Report. Mr. Wasserman is Cook’s resident redistricting expert and the author of “Better Know a District,” the The Cook Political Report’s 2012 redistricting outlook. (Readers might also want to check out Cook’s redistricting scorecard for background).
We will post the conversation in two parts, this being Part 1, which focuses on the more general aspects of redistricting. Part 2 will focus on more granular details at the state and local level. The interview was conducted by Nate Silver and Micah Cohen.
MC: Can you just talk generally, for someone who is not following redistricting at all, about what we should expect?
DW: Democrats are poised to gain a handful of seats. The inimitable Stu Rothenberg put out a great column outlining why the pendulum has swung in a minor way toward Democrats, and why they’re poised to pick up a handful. And I agree with his assessment.
If you take what Democrats need to get to the majority, they need 24 more seats after picking up New York 26. Their best case scenario is a gain of 4 to 5 seats total from redistricting – assuming things go their way in court in Florida and some of the other big states where there’s a lot on the line. Then they need 20 more seats after that to get to a majority.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Decent meat and potatoes discussion.
I see a number of new members in both parties but no big shift in either direction. Republicans are largely focused on preserving their gains from last year.
Rangel’s “historic” district is only 31.8% black now (in the 2000’s it was 36.7%).
TX-18 is somewhat historic also (Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Sheila Jackson Lee) — only 36.8% black — not sure after redistricting but I’m sure it’s impossible to make it majority black.
With the large number of GOP congressional pickups in 2010, the GOP is maxed out in many states. Playing defense (and turning vulnerable gains into safe GOP seats) is a sound strategy when you’re well ahead.
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