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Inflation climbs to 3.6% in May. Palin was right!
American Thinker ^ | June 23, 2011 | Howard Richman & Raymond Richman

Posted on 06/23/2011 5:11:51 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

On June 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the inflation data for May. If you didn't hear about the new data, you are not alone -- the mainstream media buried the story. Why? Inflation hit 3.6% in May, even though gasoline prices actually fell that month. Inflation has been rising since November, as shown in the graph below:

(CHART AT LINK)

These rising prices were largely caused by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's rapid expansion of the U.S. money supply, known as QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2). But inflation wasn't supposed to get this high. Back in November, Bernanke told his fellow central bankers that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) was aiming for an inflation rate no higher than 2%. Specifically, he said:

This policy tool will be used in a manner that is measured and responsive to economic conditions. In particular, the Committee stated that it would review its asset-purchase program regularly in light of incoming information and would adjust the program as needed to meet its objectives. Importantly, the Committee remains unwaveringly committed to price stability and does not seek inflation above the level of 2 percent or a bit less that most FOMC participants see as consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate.

Bernanke is like a driver who steps on the brakes, then floors the gas pedal, then steps on the brakes again, then floors the gas pedal again. His tenure at the Federal Reserve has been marked by the erratic swings in the U.S. money supply, shown in the graph below:

(GRAPH AT LINK)

From May 2010 to May 2011, Bernanke had his pedal to the metal. He grew M1 (the amount of money in cash and in checking accounts) at a 13.4% rate. Due to lag time, this didn't get inflation climbing rapidly until February. Now that inflation has gotten started, it may be hard to stop because it can get a momentum of its own.

Back in November, Governor Palin took on QE2 and President Obama's defense of it. Her predictions have turned out to be correct. When making her case against QE2, she argued that it could cause inflation, but would not much help U.S. net exports and business investment, the two factors needed to grow the U.S. economy.

Indeed, worsening net exports (exports minus imports) have been keeping the United States stuck in its current economic stagnation. When imports go up relative to exports, Americans get more debt and lose jobs, whereas when exports go up, relative to imports, Americans get more income and gain jobs. The decline in net exports may be slowing or preventing the U.S. economic recovery.

Bernanke hoped that QE2 would weaken the dollar which would turn U.S. net exports around. But Palin predicted that any positive effects would be temporary. In November she wrote:

Will driving the dollar down in this way do anything to boost U.S. exports? The short answer is not really. A weaker dollar will temporarily boost exports by making our goods cheaper to sell; but inevitably other countries will respond in kind, triggering the kind of currency wars economists are warning us about.

Indeed, so far Palin has been correct. QE2's effect upon net exports appears to have been temporary. Although U.S. net exports worsened more slowly in November and December, they resumed their economy-sapping slide in February, as shown in the graph below.

(GRAPH AT LINK)

Business investment is another key to economic growth, it combines the money spent by businesses on new tools and structures, such as when businesses develop new energy resources or build new factories. When businesses spend money on tools and structures, they put Americans to work making the tools and building the structures. Later, the improved tools and structures give American workers more productive work, resulting in higher wages. Bernanke had hoped that QE2 would stimulate business investment. But, in November, Palin predicted that QE2 would have little effect upon business investment. She wrote:

Will QE2 then at least boost domestic investment? No, again. As I explained in my speech in Phoenix, the reason banks aren't lending and businesses aren't investing isn't because of insufficient access to credit. There's plenty of money around, it's just that no one's willing to spend it. Big businesses especially have been hoarding cash. They're not expanding or adding to their workforce because there's just too much uncertainty created by a lot of big government experiments that aren't working. It's the President's own policies that are creating this uncertainty.

Indeed, as the graph below shows, the rate of growth in real fixed investment slowed in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, despite QE2:

(GRAPH AT LINK)

Palin argued that QE2 was a dangerous experiment that risked inflation. She urged Obama to instead balance budgets, cut taxes and reduce burdensome business regulation. In November, she concluded:

If the President was serious about getting the economy moving again, he'd stop supporting the Fed's dangerous experiments with our currency and focus instead on what actually works: reducing government spending and boosting business investment through good old fashioned supply side reforms (cutting taxes and reducing overly burdensome regulations). Simply running the printing presses in order to avoid paying off your debts is no way for a great nation to behave.

In May, she added balanced trade to her recipe for economic recovery. After meeting with Donald Trump, she said:

"What do we have in common? Our love for this country, a desire to see our economy put back on the right track," Palin told reporters. "To have a balanced trade arrangement with other countries across this world so Americans can have our jobs, our industries, our manufacturing again. And exploiting responsibly our natural resources. We can do that again if we make good decisions."

The bulk of the U.S. trade deficit (i.e., of our negative net exports) is with China. When Trump was testing the waters for a possible presidential run, he made President Obama's incompetent negotiations with China a cornerstone of his campaign. With Chinese aggregate demand growing rapidly and U.S. aggregate demand stagnant, economists would normally expect the Chinese trade surplus with the United States to be shrinking. But President Obama has let the Chinese government reduce U.S. net exports to China month after month, as shown by the new 12-month lows reached in recent months in the graph below:

(GRAPH AT LINK)

Obama negotiates with China from a position of weakness. He goes into each meeting ruling out the possibility of the U.S. putting tariffs upon Chinese products, even though the Chinese government has already placed high tariff and other barriers upon U.S. products. The U.S. need not negotiate from a position of weakness. Under world trade rules, it is entitled to impose trade balancing tariffs whenever it is running chronic trade deficits. Our proposal for scaled tariffs would let the United States (and any other country harmed by large chronic trade deficits) achieve higher net exports with or without the cooperation of its trading partners.

The mainstream media pretend that Palin is stupid. But she is actually blessed with a very rare commodity these days - economic common sense. She is the only potential presidential candidate currently advocating the three basic principles that would restore economic stability and long-term growth to the American economy: (1) balanced monetary growth, (2) balanced budgets, and (3) balanced trade.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bernanke; china; economy; herecomethepdstrolls; inflation; obama; palin; palinnewsnetwork; pds; recession; sarahpalin; waronsarah
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Comments?
1 posted on 06/23/2011 5:11:55 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ruh-roh, Riggy!


2 posted on 06/23/2011 5:15:24 AM PDT by pingman (Durn tootin'; I like Glock shootin'!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So was Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and Marc Faber all who predicted this in early 2009 in writing and videos(posted here at FR BTW) long before Palin talked about it.


3 posted on 06/23/2011 5:18:02 AM PDT by sickoflibs (If you pay zero Federal income taxes, don't say you are paying your 'fair share')
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yawn. Those rates are tame.

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/


4 posted on 06/23/2011 5:19:48 AM PDT by Huck (The Antifederalists were right!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I forget, Glenn Beck was on this too but mostly later in 2009.


5 posted on 06/23/2011 5:19:51 AM PDT by sickoflibs (If you pay zero Federal income taxes, don't say you are paying your 'fair share')
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To: Huck

How much of that is apples and oranges? Somewhere in that history the government took commodity prices like food and fuel out of the calculations.


6 posted on 06/23/2011 5:23:28 AM PDT by tacticalogic
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To: sickoflibs

So were most FReepers.


7 posted on 06/23/2011 5:26:40 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet!

LLS


8 posted on 06/23/2011 5:31:17 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH"! I choose LIBERTY and PALIN!)
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To: tacticalogic
Off the top of my head I recall it was Slick Willie that made the first move but W did some refinement.
9 posted on 06/23/2011 5:31:55 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Demons run when a good man goes to war.)
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To: sickoflibs; Roccus

Are any of those mentioned viable candidates for the Republican nomination for president? Gov. Palin is. Did President Reagan come up with all his own ideas or did he have advisors? Having worked with him, I know the answer.


10 posted on 06/23/2011 5:35:52 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thoughts?

Sure, at what point do we pronounce Globalism’s demise?


11 posted on 06/23/2011 5:36:29 AM PDT by padre35 (You shall not ignore the laws of God, the Market, the Jungle, and Reciprocity Rm10.10)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"They're not expanding or adding to their workforce because there's just too much uncertainty created by a lot of big government experiments that aren't working."

Why would a banker loan money to a business this administration might put out of business in a few years??

12 posted on 06/23/2011 5:38:05 AM PDT by radioone
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To: sickoflibs

None of whom were pols from our side we’d be looking to for political leadership—or considering electing president in 2012.


13 posted on 06/23/2011 5:46:41 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

-——Now that inflation has gotten started, it may be hard to stop ——

That sentence indicates the author has no clue. He doesn’t understand at all what is unfolding before his eyes.

There is no intention or desire or policy to stop inflation. Inflation is the desired goal. The intent of the various players is to manage inflation, not to stop it.

The combination of compounded inflation and resulting compounded marginal revenue increase will over time eliminate the debt. The process is actually the only way the debt can be eliminated. The whole world knows it too, and the process is pretty much universal.

To stabilize the debt, the deficits must be reduced to 0. The Republicans are attempting to do that now.


14 posted on 06/23/2011 5:48:14 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. N.C. D.E. +12 ....( History is a process, not an event ))
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To: tacticalogic

IIRC, food and fuel ARE including in core inflation figures, but not in CPI.


15 posted on 06/23/2011 5:52:00 AM PDT by Huck (The Antifederalists were right!)
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To: radioone
radioone wrote:
"They're not expanding or adding to their workforce because there's just too much uncertainty created by a lot of big government experiments that aren't working."

Why would a banker loan money to a business this administration might put out of business in a few years??

Further, why would anyone contemplating expanding a potentially "favored" business borrow from a banker today, pay interest and be obligated to pay it back later, when they might be able to collect a government give-away next month or next year. Even for businesses that might be able to expand, there's the question of timing. Better to do it on the taxpayer dime, if you're willing to wait for that gravy train to get to your station.

16 posted on 06/23/2011 5:52:09 AM PDT by cc2k ( If having an "R" makes you conservative, does walking into a barn make you a horse's (_*_)?)
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To: tacticalogic

“How much of that is apples and oranges? Somewhere in that history the government took commodity prices like food and fuel out of the calculations.”


“Shadow Government Stats, which calculates the CPI the way it was calculated by the government in 1990, has annualized CPI at 11.2% versus the current BLS number of 3.6%.”

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/shadow-stats-price-inflation-at-112.html


17 posted on 06/23/2011 5:52:45 AM PDT by MulberryDraw ( Switch off the EPA.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Many, many, many people said this long before Palin, dang.
18 posted on 06/23/2011 5:53:47 AM PDT by org.whodat
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; 9YearLurker
RE :"Are any of those mentioned viable candidates for the Republican nomination for president? Gov. Palin is."

Viable? You mean with a write-in vote? Things seem much more quiet on that front compared to a few weeks ago.

I notice Rick Perry's name seems to be popping up in these Palin posts since the bus headed back to Alaska. Not sure what to make of that so far.

19 posted on 06/23/2011 5:54:14 AM PDT by sickoflibs (If you pay zero Federal income taxes, don't say you are paying your 'fair share')
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To: sickoflibs

Are you able to read? Her bus tour is in hiatus so she can perform jury duty! How did you miss that story?!


20 posted on 06/23/2011 5:57:38 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: bert
There is no intention or desire or policy to stop inflation. Inflation is the desired goal. The intent of the various players is to manage inflation, not to stop it.

True dat! The need for this inflation became obvious years ago when it became clear that the government had over promised and under prepared.

The problem will become how much can they inflate without the aging baby boomers rioting.

We also now understand the necessity of "Death Panels."

21 posted on 06/23/2011 5:58:43 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (The Sixteenth Amendment - a.k.a. - The Slavery Amendment)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The last paragraph is very important. I wonder if enough people will get it before November, 2012?


22 posted on 06/23/2011 5:59:02 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (We .. have a purpose .. no longer to please every dictator with a vote at the UN. PM Harper)
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To: sickoflibs

Analyst have indeed talked about the coming inflation but not one single potential candidate every spoke about QE2 nor condemn Bernanke back then a in major speech, in fact Palin was ridicule for saying that inflation was coming by a WSJ reporter.


23 posted on 06/23/2011 5:59:59 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; 1_Rain_Drop; 4woodenboats; Abbeville Conservative; abigail2; ABQHispConservative; ..

***********Palin Ping***********


24 posted on 06/23/2011 6:02:45 AM PDT by Clyde5445 (Gov. Sarah Palin: "You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words.")
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To: Bigtigermike
And the last we heard from Paul Krugman on inflation, his view was: There’s really nothing here to shake my view that deflation, not inflation, is the threat.

Whenhas he ever been right?

25 posted on 06/23/2011 6:02:50 AM PDT by scooby321
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To: Former Proud Canadian

I don’t think you have to shove their noses in a pie chart or graph. People realize that it costs a lot more to buy groceries, gasoline, utilities or what have you now than it did three years ago. Every gas station pump and price sign, every trip to a store, every bill in the mail and every person you know without work or in foreclosure will be a free advertisement for the Republican nominee next year. I’m convinced that I could beat Mr. Obama in 2012 if I was the GOP standard-bearer. Which is why we DO NOT need to move to the center like conventional wisdom is trying to tell us to.


26 posted on 06/23/2011 6:04:54 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There are several thousand economists and investment consultants who have been publishing this outcome since Obama took office. Palin could read this in great detail from any number of reports out about this, that have been regularly published for over 2 years.

The author gives Palin full credit for this elementary and obvious outcome, as if it was her who suddenly discovered it.

Attempting to prop Palin up in this way is laughable and it will backfire on her in a big way. It's just another exxageration of who she is and what she has accomplished from her blind following.

27 posted on 06/23/2011 6:07:04 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Always Remember You're Unique.......(Just Like everyone Else.))
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To: org.whodat

Where was the political leadership? Only Palin was talking about this last year publicly on Bernanke and QE2 and coming inflation and I mean the only one of those in the Presidential race or those who may be getting in the race. I remember us on FR discussing “why are not the other potentials talking about this?” there is alot of issues Palin have been well ahead on that some choose to ignore


28 posted on 06/23/2011 6:07:21 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; sickoflibs

I see we had a similar reply to sickoflibs.

Also, in Palin’s case jury duty may apparently require her to be on call for 30 days:

http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2011/06/breaking-palin-sentenced-to-30-days-of-jury-duty.html


29 posted on 06/23/2011 6:07:54 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

For someone who the media along with a few nameless folks on FR, believe is too DUMB to be elected president, Palin is awfully correct on many of her observations regarding the economy.

JMO...


30 posted on 06/23/2011 6:08:22 AM PDT by Le Chien Rouge
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To: sickoflibs

Palin is on Jury Duty! I guess you jumped the gun with glee that Sarah had ran away or something? lol!!!!!!!!


31 posted on 06/23/2011 6:09:14 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
RE :"Are you able to read? Her bus tour is in hiatus so she can perform jury duty! How did you miss that story?!"

Did I say it was something else? Her jury duty doesnt foster endless speculation about a presidential run like the bus tour did. Heck, at the peak of the tour there were 20-30 posts a day on that subject.

Now this Rick Perry stuff is popping up in the vaccum.

32 posted on 06/23/2011 6:09:33 AM PDT by sickoflibs (If you pay zero Federal income taxes, don't say you are paying your 'fair share')
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To: scooby321

Krugman is a loon! A homeless man walking around wearing a hot winter jacket in the hot summer blabbing makes more sense than Krugman!


33 posted on 06/23/2011 6:12:45 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
How did you miss that story?!

His plexiglas navel got dirty and needed cleaning...

34 posted on 06/23/2011 6:13:29 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (JMO but I reserve the right to be wrong...)
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To: 9YearLurker

That was true when I was on jury duty in Iowa. Had to report at the courthouse every week day.


35 posted on 06/23/2011 6:14:07 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: sickoflibs

Only in the vaccuum between your ears.


36 posted on 06/23/2011 6:14:23 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (JMO but I reserve the right to be wrong...)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

37 posted on 06/23/2011 6:16:01 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

Pay no attention to the North Slope truck driver.


38 posted on 06/23/2011 6:16:50 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (JMO but I reserve the right to be wrong...)
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To: Bigtigermike

Meanwhile, Speaker Boehner plays golf with Barry, Myth amd Huntman move further left every day, Newt is a joke, no one has ever heard of Tiny Tim, Michele lets her campaign manager attack Gov. Palin and good hair is urged to run in Jeb Bush’s stead.


39 posted on 06/23/2011 6:17:24 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: Bigtigermike
.Wrong, many people were talking about the damages of the QE crap. And the republicans won the house. It is part of the whole T-Party efforts. And Bachmann is head of the congressional T Party caucus .
40 posted on 06/23/2011 6:17:24 AM PDT by org.whodat
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To: Aevery_Freeman

———The problem will become how much can they inflate without the aging baby boomers rioting.-——

You are precisely correct.


41 posted on 06/23/2011 6:18:15 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. N.C. D.E. +12 ....( History is a process, not an event ))
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To: sickoflibs

Rick Perry? Romney without RomneyCare? C’mon!!


42 posted on 06/23/2011 6:19:00 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: gov_bean_ counter
I can't help it. He's just so eminently... mockable. ;)


43 posted on 06/23/2011 6:19:09 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I was referring to the fact that the writer credits Sarah Palin with predicting the results. The media depicts her as dumb. She is probably smarter than any elected politician in Washington.


44 posted on 06/23/2011 6:19:23 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (We .. have a purpose .. no longer to please every dictator with a vote at the UN. PM Harper)
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To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

45 posted on 06/23/2011 6:19:50 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Always Remember You're Unique.......(Just Like everyone Else.))
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To: org.whodat

Remind me how many Tea Party and other conservatives that she got elected to office in 2010.


46 posted on 06/23/2011 6:20:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: org.whodat
Bachmomma started a little club in Congress and made herself the Chairman. Kids do the same thing with tree house clubs. Hahaha.
47 posted on 06/23/2011 6:22:39 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (JMO but I reserve the right to be wrong...)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

48 posted on 06/23/2011 6:23:17 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet ("We didn't lose Vietnam. We quit Vietnam." ~Gen. Al Haig)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Same two options as always, Potsie:

1.) Complaint Department

2.) Pound sand.

Otherwise: snivel to someone who actually cares. LOLOL!!!


49 posted on 06/23/2011 6:23:19 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: Huck
IIRC, food and fuel ARE including in core inflation figures, but not in CPI.

They aren't now. They used to be included in the CPI calculation, but they've changed the basis for the CPI calculations. The inflation figures in that chart are based on calculations that have been manipulated to make the recent inflation rates appear less than they actually are.

50 posted on 06/23/2011 6:23:58 AM PDT by tacticalogic
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