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California redistricting could imperil GOP House seats
AP via CoCo Times ^ | 6/28/11 | KEVIN FREKING, Associated Press

Posted on 06/28/2011 8:31:40 AM PDT by SmithL

WASHINGTON -- Democrats hoping to regain the majority in the House in 2012 might get a strong head start in California, where voters have handed the authority for drawing political boundaries to an independent citizens' commission.

Analysts studying the panel's work are predicting that three to five seats now in Republican hands will move into the Democratic camp in next year's general election. Such a swing could give Democrats an edge toward the magic number 24 -- the number of GOP-held seats they'll need to win if they are to regain the House majority.

Republicans account for roughly 31 percent of California's voters and 36 percent of its congressional delegation -- at 53 members, the nation's largest. Democrats comprise 44 percent of the state's voters and 62 percent of its congressional delegation. One vacancy in a Democratic-leaning district will be filled after a special election in July.

(Excerpt) Read more at contracostatimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: gerrymandering; goldenstate; redistricting

1 posted on 06/28/2011 8:31:42 AM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

No one here is shocked, are they?


2 posted on 06/28/2011 8:34:24 AM PDT by Pecos (Constitutionalist. Liberty and Honor will not die on my watch.)
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To: Pecos

And in states with large Dem House delegations, e.g. New York, they are losing seats, and states like Texas are gaining seats. California is a small drop in the bucket, and in the end, little effect overall in the count of seats.


3 posted on 06/28/2011 8:40:19 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: SmithL

Does it really matter? California already has slipped off the banana peel into hell anyway.


4 posted on 06/28/2011 8:41:01 AM PDT by albie
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To: SmithL

California is the crap pile of rotten communists liberals that have such a limited capacity their brain are in deep freeze. Dumb dodo brains are destroying themselves.


5 posted on 06/28/2011 8:41:20 AM PDT by Logical me
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To: SmithL

Can we just give California to Mexico and call it even?


6 posted on 06/28/2011 8:42:36 AM PDT by eCSMaster (We will fight for America and it starts here in Madison, WI. It starts here. It starts now.)
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To: BigEdLB

Georgia is also gaining seats. I believe 1 or 2.


7 posted on 06/28/2011 8:43:05 AM PDT by HOYA97 (twitter @hoya97)
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To: BigEdLB

Pennsylvania is losing one seat and it will be a Democrat one since Republicans run things here.

The old Jack Murtha district gets cut and boundaries are redrawn in the remaining 18 districts.

The new lines may help the GOP gain district (the 4th).

The party in charge after the census in each state does the gerrymandering.


8 posted on 06/28/2011 8:43:11 AM PDT by Nextrush (President Sarah Palin sounds just right to me)
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To: Nextrush

Pennsylvania: Yeah, but I wouldn’t trust that Gleason guy with the GOP’s best interests in PA.


9 posted on 06/28/2011 8:51:24 AM PDT by eCSMaster (We will fight for America and it starts here in Madison, WI. It starts here. It starts now.)
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To: SmithL

Nationwide, though, I’d heard that we’ll gain 14 GOP electoral votes.

Anyone?


10 posted on 06/28/2011 8:51:56 AM PDT by llandres (Forget the "New America" - restore the original one!!)
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To: eCSMaster
Was going to post the exact same thing....great minds think alike...and if it was part of Mexico the Dems would never ever win another election in our life time.
11 posted on 06/28/2011 8:52:26 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Herman Cain is the man in 2012)
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To: BigEdLB

Between California and Illinois alone, the Democrats can probably gerrymander up to 10 seats their way (3-5 in California, and 4-5 in Illinois). In places where the GOP has control, the legislators are drawing the districts in a far more conservative way, thus limiting the potential for the GOP to pickup seats. For instance, in Georgia instead of drawing a massively gerrymander GOP map, the Republicans are opting to strengthen incumbents. They are doing the same thing in North Carolina.

In essence, the Democrats are drawing districts with the goal of maximizing the number of seats they can get out of the deal, even if the means the ultimate winner of the seats will be in more marginal districts. The GOP is taking the opposite approach, and is drawing districts that are designed to protect incumbent members, and make other districts less marginal.


12 posted on 06/28/2011 8:54:10 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: SmithL

Wishful AP thinking. There’s no guarantee GOP House seats will be lost. Democratic seats could just as easily be imperiled as many of them are highly gerrymandered. Does an election cycle go by where the AP isn’t predicting disaster for the GOP?


13 posted on 06/28/2011 9:02:57 AM PDT by MissesBush (Obama logic re: Weiner. Twitter your junk = I would resign. Destroy a nation = I deserve re-election)
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To: MissesBush

I agree. I wouldn’t want to be a newbie in politics with ‘D’ behind my name.


14 posted on 06/28/2011 9:14:33 AM PDT by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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To: SmithL

Here in Missouri, the RATS will lose a seat. It was the old Dick Gephardt seat gerrymandered for him. Over the years as Union have lost power the seat has been targeted. The last election the Carnahan RAT won with a plurality. Rats only control St. Louis and KC, while GOP will hold the rest.


15 posted on 06/28/2011 9:19:26 AM PDT by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: Pecos
California redistricting could imperil GOP House seats

Dem Controlled California economic collapse could imperil DEM Party

16 posted on 06/28/2011 9:22:52 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: BigEdLB

You got that right. Texas is getting 4 more seats, I think, and they are redistricting as well, so you could see the GOP gain 5-6 more seats in Texas to offset any Dem gains in California.


17 posted on 06/28/2011 9:23:36 AM PDT by CA Conservative
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To: SmithL

Sometimes when liberals get too greedy gerrymandering, it comes back to bite them in the butt.

This might be the case in California.


18 posted on 06/28/2011 9:34:17 AM PDT by proudpapa (Palin-West - 2012)
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To: SmithL

Sometimes when liberals get too greedy gerrymandering, it comes back to bite them in the butt.

This might be the case in California.


19 posted on 06/28/2011 9:34:31 AM PDT by proudpapa (Palin-West - 2012)
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To: SmithL

California is being meaningfully DE-gerrymandered by a non-partisan commission. It will remove some safe Republican seats which did little more than allow incumbents in the California GOP to be lazy, and create a bunch of districts that good Republicans can win with a solid message and effort.


20 posted on 06/28/2011 9:44:29 AM PDT by only1percent
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To: SmithL

Have to keep the criminal enterprise in power


21 posted on 06/28/2011 9:53:49 AM PDT by ronnie raygun (V)
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To: BigEdLB
And in states with large Dem House delegations, e.g. New York, they are losing seats, and states like Texas are gaining seats.

I haven't seen the Texas redistricting map, but LULAC, NAALCP, lord dog nuts and Donna Howard don't like it one bit. I think clown sheila jackson lee is probably safe, but dog nuts may be out.

22 posted on 06/28/2011 10:11:26 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (zero hates Texas and we hate him back. He ain't my president either.)
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To: ronnie raygun

You’ve got to be kidding. California doesn’t hold a candle to Illinois in that regard.


23 posted on 06/28/2011 10:32:39 AM PDT by truthkeeper (Vote Against Barack Obama in 2012!)
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To: Pecos

although the California Legislature leans so heavily Democrat I doubt the outcome would be any different if they drew the lines.


24 posted on 06/28/2011 11:00:23 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SmithL

California is in the process of imploding now we will see what the political atmosphee is like in California after this happens. Barone thinks theat the GOP may actually pick up the Harmon seat in the special election. We may somehow save California by letting it destroy itself.


25 posted on 06/28/2011 11:58:03 AM PDT by bilhosty (Don' t tax people tax newsprint)
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To: eCSMaster

On paper, it looks good for the GOP but the pre-Gleason bosses messed up the 2000 redraw plan pretty good.

The Dems did OK inspite of it.

Maybe Gleason got it right as far as party goes this time.

A non-Gleason GOP candidate (Keith Rothfus) came up 1.6 percent short of beating Dem Jason Altmire in the 4th District last year.

The redraw of the 4th will be tested again since Rothfus intends to contest the 4th again in 2012.


26 posted on 06/28/2011 1:17:20 PM PDT by Nextrush (President Sarah Palin sounds just right to me)
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To: Pecos

Not really. We would (I hope) do the same to Democrat seats if we were in charge of the PRK’s legislature. I hope we do the same to them in states where we have control.


27 posted on 06/28/2011 1:24:17 PM PDT by Little Ray (Best Conservative in the Primary; AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: Little Ray

I assume “PRK” is “People’s Republic of Kalifornia” and since you’re in Georgia I’ll tell you redistricting here in being handled by a new, supposed “nonpartisan”, commission created by voters and not the legislature.


28 posted on 06/28/2011 7:35:24 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: SmithL
Don't forget the Voting Rights Act and the necessary approvals that must be secured from the US Attorney General.


29 posted on 06/28/2011 7:49:25 PM PDT by deport
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To: Arrowhead1952
Select Base Plan and then Plan C125

Take a look at the proposed District #36 for some good gerrymandering. I believe Plan C125 was the plan that the legislature adopted.

30 posted on 06/28/2011 7:54:57 PM PDT by deport
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To: newzjunkey
That's a pity.
We should have used opportunity to squeeze the maximum number of Liberal and Commies out of their districts. However, given that any “nonpartisan” commission will inevitably be dominated by Liberals, it will probably be bad for the Pubbies.
31 posted on 06/28/2011 8:24:29 PM PDT by Little Ray (Best Conservative in the Primary; AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: deport

I just hope Doggett gets walking papers in 2012. I heard some sound bites of his the other day, and wanted to slap my radio. The liberalism just gushes from his mouth.


32 posted on 06/29/2011 4:59:08 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (zero hates Texas and we hate him back. He ain't my president either.)
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To: only1percent
I agree with you.

As long as the districts are compact and logical we will have to let the chips fall where they may. I for one am going to loose George Miller as my congressman, so that is good from my perspective!

33 posted on 06/30/2011 3:50:18 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (When you hear hooves, think horses, not zebras.)
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