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OBAMA LOSING JEWISH VOTERS
The Hill.com ^ | Dick Morris

Posted on 07/06/2011 3:41:04 PM PDT by Hojczyk

If the election were held today, President Obama would get only 56 percent of the Jewish vote against a generic Republican candidate, down from the 78 percent he won in 2008 and less than the 74 percent John Kerry received in 2004.

This is the key finding of a survey of 1,000 Jewish voters I conducted from June 20-27 using telephone and Internet interviews. After asking basic questions of the entire sample, I proceeded to drill down with more detailed questions for the Jews in the sample who identified themselves as Democrats. The overall survey has a 95 percent confidence of a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Triggering the increasing Jewish disaffection with Obama is opposition to his proposal that an Israeli return to ’67 borders be the starting point of peace negotiations. By 10-83, Jewish voters opposed the plan. Jewish Democrats opposed it by 10-67. Asked if President Obama is “too biased against Israel,” Jewish voters as a whole agreed with the charge by 39-30, while 32 percent of Jewish Democrats also agreed (and 40 percent of Jewish Democrats disagreed).

Jews who identified themselves as Democrats also said:

• By 37-47, they do not think Obama is “doing a good job of promoting peace in the Middle East.”

• By 43-42, they break evenly on whether Obama “is being too tough on Israel.”

• By 61-30, Jewish Democrats think the president “is naïve in thinking that he can make peace with the Arabs.”

The survey probed the issue of 1967 borders in greater depth, reading Jewish Democrats a statement giving both sides of the issue:

RELATED ARTICLES Gallup poll: No erosion in support among Jewish voters President Obama says that Israel should give up the land it occupied after the 1967 war except for some adjustments. He says that these borders would give the Palestinians a viable nation of their own and would lead to a settlement of their conflict with Israel. Others disagree, saying that these borders are too small, exposing Israel to shelling from the Golan Heights in the north and giving the nation a middle only nine miles wide. They say that returning to the pre-’67 borders would not stop the Arabs from wanting to destroy Israel but would make it easier to do so. Which view comes closest to your own?

In response, Jewish Democrats opposed returning to the ’67 borders by 82-8.

Israel is very important to Jewish Democrats.

• By 86-4, Jewish Democrats agree that “it is very important that Jews have a country of their own, considering their history of persecution.”

• They disagree, by 9-75, with the idea that “Israel has become a bully, pushing its Arab neighbors around.”

• Jewish Democrats agree, by a margin of 85-4, that “Israel is a small country surrounded by countries and peoples that want to destroy it.”

• By an overwhelming 12-71, they reject the idea that “Israel is intolerant of its neighbors and does not do enough to get along with them in peace”.

• By 79-4, Jewish Democrats agree that “Israel wants to live in peace with its neighbors but the Arabs won’t let it” and reject, by 11-73, the statement that “Israel is always trying to grab more land and throw out the Palestinians who live there.”

• Finally, Jewish Democrats agree, 67-13, with the overview that “if the Arabs lay down their weapons, there would be no more war. It is just their desire to destroy Israel that creates the conflict.”

Given the importance of Israel to the Jewish Democratic voters of the United States, it is clear that Obama is playing with fire as he toughens the American foreign policy toward Israel and banks his credibility on the idea that peace is possible simply through Israeli territorial concessions. American Jews — Democrats included — reject the very foundation of Obama’s efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East as “naïve.”

Obama is in the process of breaking the close relationship between his party and the Jewish community, a liaison first formed by Eleanor and Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s. In increasing numbers, American Jews and Jewish Democrats are leaving the president’s side.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2011polls; bho2012; buyersremorse; jewishvote
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1 posted on 07/06/2011 3:41:10 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk
I saw a posting here where Obama was not losing Jewish voters
2 posted on 07/06/2011 3:42:46 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

So he’ll get 55-60% instead of 75-80%. It’s a start, but most of my co-religionists are blind naive fools listening to the conventional wisdom of the oikophobic urbane elite.


3 posted on 07/06/2011 3:44:03 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: justiceseeker93; ExTexasRedhead

This contradicts another poll which says that Obama’s support from Jewish voters is holding firm. I’m more inclined to believe this poll.


4 posted on 07/06/2011 3:44:24 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens collect welfare checks that Americans won't collect)
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To: Hojczyk

There’s still plenty of time for meaningless promises to bring them back to the party. They’ll come around; for some reason, this voting block is a slam dunk.


5 posted on 07/06/2011 3:44:58 PM PDT by DPMD (~)
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To: Nachum

Giving the lie to the bogus gallup crap.


6 posted on 07/06/2011 3:45:07 PM PDT by MestaMachine (Sarah Palin is the mirror by which evil reflects back upon itself until consumed out of existence)
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To: Hojczyk
The title of that post was misleading. The pool showed a decline from 83% to 60%. The "No losing support" comes from the pol;ls showing a pattern from the last three months of support being 64%, 68%, and now 60%. Given the standard deviation of 7% this was meaningless. Except that consistant support in the 60's as opposed to 83% is significant and shows real decline of over 1/4.

Poor polling, worse analysis.

7 posted on 07/06/2011 3:46:59 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: Hojczyk

I will believe it when I see it in declining donations and actual voting patterns.

Until then, polling is just wishful thinking.


8 posted on 07/06/2011 3:47:12 PM PDT by NVDave
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To: Hojczyk

They’ll be back when it counts. They are elitist liberals first and Jews when it’s fashionable. And, Obama will just ship them some borrowed bailout money of that don’t work.


9 posted on 07/06/2011 3:49:39 PM PDT by CharlyFord
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To: Hojczyk

I really hope this is true, BUT I won’t buy it until the 2012 election pans out this way.


10 posted on 07/06/2011 3:50:30 PM PDT by Anti-Bubba182
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To: Hojczyk
Israel is very important to Jewish Democrats.

Personally I doubt it, but we will see.

11 posted on 07/06/2011 3:53:07 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Hojczyk
By 61-30, Jewish Democrats think the president “is naïve in thinking that he can make peace with the Arabs.”

It's not naivete -- the Obama Brotherhood has a plan, and it ain't pretty for either Israel or the U.S.

12 posted on 07/06/2011 3:53:34 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: Hojczyk

A Jewish conservative friend (who served in Republican administrations) advised that the loss of Jewish votes won’t affect much, but the loss of Jewish campaign donations will.


13 posted on 07/06/2011 3:54:16 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Government borrowing is Taxation without Representation)
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To: Beelzebubba
A Jewish conservative friend (who served in Republican administrations) advised that the loss of Jewish votes won’t affect much, but the loss of Jewish campaign donations will.

If he destroys Israel, Islamic donations may make up for it.

14 posted on 07/06/2011 3:59:24 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("It is only when we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything" -- Fight Club)
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To: Hojczyk

This doesn’t jive with a Gallup poll published last week. Has Dick Morris ever been wrong? Has Dick Morris ever been right about anything?


15 posted on 07/06/2011 4:00:05 PM PDT by bwc2221
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To: Hojczyk

I doubt that Obama will be suffering much loss from Jewish voters, this poll will change when an election starts and the contrast between the pro-life, pro-bill of rights, smaller government republican agenda and the Obama agenda are campaigned on and contrasted with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of ads, articles and speeches.


16 posted on 07/06/2011 4:04:07 PM PDT by ansel12 (America has close to India population of 1950s, India has 1,200,000,000 people now. Quality of Life?)
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To: rmlew
So he’ll get 55-60% instead of 75-80%. It’s a start, but most of my co-religionists are blind naive fools

Its the donors that matter,not that segment of the general population that has Jewish last names.

I can not imagine how he holds all the big money Jewish donors he had last time. Not a reasonable expectation.

17 posted on 07/06/2011 4:05:45 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: Hojczyk

Bravo Sierra.


18 posted on 07/06/2011 4:08:57 PM PDT by Arm_Bears (I'll have what the gentleman on the floor is drinking.)
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To: Hojczyk

No offense, but there’s some Jewish Democrats (B. Streisand for one) who’d vote Adolf Hitler for President so long as he was a Democrat. I have no idea what it is with so many Jews that they’ll vote left even when history clearly shows it’s not in their interests.


19 posted on 07/06/2011 4:09:09 PM PDT by MeganC (Are you better off than you were four years ago?)
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To: rmlew
I don't expect any of them to vote for the other side.
Let them stay home.
20 posted on 07/06/2011 4:15:10 PM PDT by MaxMax
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To: Hojczyk

The issue that concerns the Obama people is a potential loss of political donations. There will not be a big difference in political donations from wealthy Jews in CA and NY. (Maybe a little less generosity).

The real concern is the middle and upper middle class who feel that donating $100 is a mitzvah, especially if it is to a (half) black man.


21 posted on 07/06/2011 4:15:43 PM PDT by neocon1984
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To: Hojczyk

His conclusion is an infinite leap and is gratuitous.


22 posted on 07/06/2011 4:16:35 PM PDT by HChampagne (I am not an AARP member and never will be.)
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To: Hojczyk

The Hill did a totally bogus analysis of Gallup’s polls the other day regarding Obama’s Jewish support. If you read that article, silently sing to yourself, “Spin, Spin, Spin” sung to the tune of the Byrds’ “Turn, Turn, Turn”, because if you bother to go to the Gallup web page regarding this issue and take a look at the Gallup polls since 2009, it will be noted that Obama’s Jewish approval has dropped precipitously from 83% in 2009 to 60% today.

Worse, Jewish approval of Obama is still rapidly sliding downhill, falling from 68% to 60% in the last five months. These trends are hardly cause for the Obammunists to celebrate and totally contradict the Orwellian headlines being used, such as “No erosion in support for Obama among Jewish American Voters” and “Poll: Majority of Jewish Americans still solidly support President Obama”.

So, I say to all of those Obammunists who blindly pretend that all is well with Jewish support of Obama, please keep thinking that as you whistle in the dark while sauntering by the graveyard of disappearing Obama supporters, because that way you’ll continue to think that all is in order in Obamaland, when in fact it’s all hollowed out like a house eaten up by termites: it looks like the house is ok, but the merest puff of breeze will cause it to disintegrate into a pile of dry rot that blows away in the wind.


23 posted on 07/06/2011 4:20:23 PM PDT by catnipman
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To: Hojczyk

>>If the election were held today, President Obama would get only 56 percent of the Jewish vote<<

How sad that 56% of Jews hate themselves and/or their race. barry the zero is trying to complete hitler’s plan through the back door and yet, they still support him.

Insanity...


24 posted on 07/06/2011 4:22:26 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Herman Cain 2012)
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To: Hojczyk

How can American Jewish voters be so intelligent yet so dumb? How Obama could get even one American Jewish vote is beyond me. Do these people have a death wish?


25 posted on 07/06/2011 4:25:58 PM PDT by CdMGuy
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To: Hojczyk

Just yesterday... Gallup says he is not losing any Jewish support at all and backed it up with older polls and their newest poll... he is at the same levels he enjoyed during the election. Who to believe?

LLS


26 posted on 07/06/2011 4:27:44 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH"! I choose LIBERTY and PALIN!)
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To: Hojczyk

“I saw a posting here where Obama was not losing Jewish voters”

I saw it too...who knows. Everyone has to have a breaking point, and just maybe Obama will find the Jewish breaking point.


27 posted on 07/06/2011 4:28:49 PM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: LibLieSlayer
The majority of the Jews that vote Donkey will complain about Obama, but when push comes to shove, they will vote for him. It is imprinted into their DNA — must vote Donkey, must vote Donkey, must vote Donkey.
28 posted on 07/06/2011 4:31:18 PM PDT by MasterGunner01 (To err is human; to forgive is not our policy. -- SEAL Team SIX)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

29 posted on 07/06/2011 4:32:23 PM PDT by SJackson (Normal people don't sit cross-legged on the floor and bang on drums, WI State Sen Glenn Grothman (R))
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To: Hojczyk

...defecting from the likes of Pelosi, are they? Good!


30 posted on 07/06/2011 4:41:00 PM PDT by familyop (Rome was burned in a day--twice.)
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To: Hojczyk

Why any true patriotic Jew would ever vote for a democrat is beyond me in the first place.


31 posted on 07/06/2011 4:42:24 PM PDT by thatjoeguy (Wind is just air, but pushier.)
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To: MaxMax
I don't expect any of them to vote for the other side. Let them stay home.

We generally don't stay home. Although I suspect that many Jews will skip 2012 rather than vote Republican.

I come from a family of Republican voters. None of us have every been exit polled. I don't have a land line so I don't get polled. But I vote. I've voted in every election since 1996 and every primary, when applicable, since 2000. (I've had the experience of being the first Republican voting in a primary. The polling person was confused by the concept of a Republican primary in Manhattan.)
32 posted on 07/06/2011 4:48:58 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: Hojczyk

Did he forget where he put them ??


33 posted on 07/06/2011 4:52:15 PM PDT by onona (I stand with SARAH !)
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To: Hojczyk

Yeah, they gotta make up their minds ... this morning the Jews were all voting for him, tonight they’re not ... what a fickled bunch.


34 posted on 07/06/2011 4:52:17 PM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag
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To: MasterGunner01

Many in Germany supported hitler until...

LLS


35 posted on 07/06/2011 4:53:03 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH"! I choose LIBERTY and PALIN!)
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To: Hojczyk

So if you’re a “Jewish voter” and you vote for the destruction of Israel, are you a Jew? I mean, you can be born into a Jewish family and have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Judaism in any form, declare yourself an anarcho-communist atheist, support the palestinians, and you’re a Jew. On the other hand, you can join Judaism, study and practice it’s teachings, learn Hebrew, live in Israel, support Israeli politics, yet, because you weren’t born into a Jewish family, you’re not a Jew.

So what’s “being a Jew” REALLY mean?


36 posted on 07/06/2011 4:56:39 PM PDT by Talisker (History will show the Illuminati won the ultimate Darwin Award.)
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To: Hojczyk

About freakin time.


37 posted on 07/06/2011 4:58:10 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Until Obama, has there ever been, in history, a Traitorous Ruler?)
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To: Hojczyk

By some estimates, Democrats get 60% of their funding from Jewish donors.

Gee, I’d sure like to see that hose of cash directed at Republicans who support Israel!


38 posted on 07/06/2011 5:38:05 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Gore Lauds Romney on Climate Position; 0bamaCare was based on RomneyCare.)
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To: Hojczyk; ml/nj; rmlew; dennisw; familyop; nolongerademocrat; eddiespaghetti; Netz; jjotto; ...
Obama is in the process of breaking the close relationship between his party, a liaison first formed by Eleanor and Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.

From this Jewish perspective, Franklin D. Roosevelt was anti-semitic in many respects, yet Jews at the time perversely idolized the man, passing down myths about him to succeeding generations. Present-day Jews often retain an irrational addiction (aren't all addictions irrational?) to the Democrats as a consequence. The "close relationship" to which Morris refers between the 'Rats and the Jewish community is in large measure founded on this pro-Roosevelt mythology.

Now, Dick Morris, please tell us what Eleanor Roosevelt did or did not do that merited Jews kissing up to the Dems. She never held any public office, as far as I know.

Morris' estimate of 56% of American Jews voting for Obama is very much in line with my postings here on FR.

Though Jewish Democrats may answer Morris' questions about Israel in a way to convey concern about Israel and Obama's policies re the Israel-Palestinian conflict, my guess is that in the majority of these instances, Israel will not be foremost on their minds when they vote for President next year.

39 posted on 07/06/2011 6:10:30 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Hojczyk

Bull/ Other devout leftists are mad at Hussein too. But on election day, they will vote for him anyway. Remember, American Jews are liberals FIRST, Jews only when necessary, convenient or profitable.


40 posted on 07/06/2011 6:38:28 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Hojczyk

One word:

Bullfeathers. Frankly stop even worrying about the subject.

The same 79% marxist wannabe hard-core are going to vote for, and spend their money supporting dems by the same overwhelming 79% margin every single time. No. Matter. What. No matter how anti-Israel Omama it, because they’re for the most part committed SOCIALISTS. Simple as that.

Frankly. They want to be mindless zombie supporters, let them.

Ignore them. Tantrums, plays for attention (which this story seems to be) whatever. Don’t even try. They made their bed, leave ‘em there. Lots of more productive things to do.

Waste of everyone’s time to do otherwise. IMO.


41 posted on 07/06/2011 6:51:49 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (SOAK THE GLOBALISTS. Globalists destroy US jobs.)
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To: Hojczyk

Today: Adolf Hitler shows up and announces his candidacy for President. Republican Jews (and also Christians) protest Hitler’s candidacy. Even ADL’s Abraham Foxman exhibits some concerns about this.

Tomorrow: Hitler changes his party registration from National Socialist German Worker’s Party to Democrat.

Day after tomorrow: National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) instantly makes a blog entry, “Stop the Smears!” with regard to RJC condemnation of Hitler. NJDC proclaims Hitler a victim of Evangelical Christian conservatism and promises to support his candidacy.

If this sounds far-fetched, NJDC has already whitewashed MoveOn.org’s anti-Semitic hate speech and has no problem with the prominent racist and anti-Semite Al Sharpton.


42 posted on 07/06/2011 7:16:29 PM PDT by Winged Hussar (http://moveonpleasemoveon.blogspot.com/)
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To: Hojczyk; All

so much for that bullshit from Gallup. Gallup, IIRC, only polled “adults”, this was a poll of “voters”.


43 posted on 07/06/2011 7:24:42 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: justiceseeker93
I’m not really sure what to think of Roosevelt. I think to a large extent his antisemitism was a reflection of the country at that time. From a personal standpoint, I would have liked to have seen him make some effort to stop the Holocaust because he definitely had some idea about what was going on. I do understand the reluctance to bring America into war. I’m not so sure why nothing was done after the US entered, but I’d assume that from a nationalist standpoint the US had more important battles to fight.

For me, one of the most special things about Israel is its commitment to doing what is necessary to keep Jews around the world safe from persecution. Even so, as an American I do not vote with Israel as my first priority because I live in the US. I don’t think that has anything to do with party affiliation for me.

Last time I was in Israel, Bush was still president. I asked my Israeli family what they thought of him and they responded that they liked him for Israel, but he wasn’t their president and what mattered was what I (and other Americans) thought of him. I think to a large extent this viewpoint works best both ways.

I’m relatively sure Obama will receive less of the Jewish vote this time around because about half the Jews I know who voted for Obama in 2008 were on the fence then. I don’t really foresee a large portion of the Jewish population staying home on Election Day, but I also think many who voted for Obama are reluctant to vote for a Social Conservative so it should be interesting.

44 posted on 07/06/2011 8:29:54 PM PDT by GenerationY
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To: Hojczyk

http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/06/30/more-evidence-that-obamas-fundraising-numbers-are-lagging/

On Wednesday the Obama campaign sent around a slightly panicky email about its quarterly fundraising numbers. Today, they have sent out another, slightly panickier, email about their quarterly fundraising numbers. The email is titled “Midnight,” just to make it a little bit scary.

Friend –

If you’re planning on donating to this campaign at any point in the next 16 months, you should do it now.

Tonight at midnight is not just your last chance to enter the “Dinner with Barack and Joe” contest, it’s also a hugely important fundraising deadline for this campaign — the first time we’ll report on our progress to the public and the press.

The next few hours are critical for us. Please donate $5 or more today:

Later in the email, Team O runs with a bit stronger language:

Come next fall, people might not remember this date — or make the connection between the strength of our campaign then and the steps we took in these early months. But anyone worth their salt in politics knows tonight is one of the most important tests we’ll face as a campaign this year. (emphasis added)

Really — a quarterly fundraising number is “one of the most important tests we’ll face as a campaign this year”? Only if your numbers have gone south and you expect that to generate a lot of static about your campaign’s weakness. The Obama campaign could be playing a head game here, but I wasn’t alone in taking yesterday’s email as a sign of weak numbers. We’ll see soon enough; midnight tonight is the close of this quarter, so the campaign’s numbers will be due for release shortly.


45 posted on 07/06/2011 9:32:24 PM PDT by eaglestar
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To: justiceseeker93

“...my guess is that in the majority of these instances, Israel will not be foremost on their minds when they vote for President next year”.

YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD! Israel is NOT foremost in these Jews’ minds, if it were, they NEVER would have voted for Barry in the first place!


46 posted on 07/06/2011 11:40:46 PM PDT by Netz
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To: neocon1984

http://coteret.com/2010/05/14/haim-saban-gives-unusually-blunt-assessment-of-obama-administration-to-israeli-tv/


47 posted on 07/07/2011 12:26:57 AM PDT by dervish (women candidates, the last frontier)
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To: justiceseeker93

More Jews will vote GOP and not talk about it.


48 posted on 07/07/2011 6:23:52 AM PDT by juliej
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To: justiceseeker93

Jumping to conclusions. Dislike for Obama does not necessarily translate to dislike for Democrats. True believers always believe that their system will work if only the right person (Hillary?) was in charge. They will never admit that socialist theory itself is the problem.


49 posted on 07/07/2011 6:29:21 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: LibLieSlayer
Gallup says he is not losing any Jewish support at all and backed it up with other polls and their newest poll...he is at the same levels he enjoyed during the election.

Read the Gallup story in its entirely and look at the graphs. You'll see that Zero's approval rating with Jews - even with Gallup's flawed methodology - went from 83% at the time of the anointment to 60% in their last polls. I'd call that serious slippage. The headline was misleading, probably written by a 'Rat specifically to get out the phony message that all is well with Jews in Obamaland.

50 posted on 07/07/2011 6:47:56 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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