Skip to comments.Bachmann leading in Iowa? (Yes according to new poll of likely caucus voters by Iowa Republican)
Posted on 07/11/2011 7:15:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Bachmentum? Michele Bachmann’s momentum continues in her birth state of Iowa, according to a new poll of likely caucus voters by the Iowa Republican. Bachmann surpasses Mitt Romney by four points, while another Minnesotan has also muscled up the ranks:
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com. With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.
Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent. The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent. Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent. …
While Bachmanns lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the polls cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa. Her favorability is ten points higher than Romneys, who had the second highest number in that category. Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romneys, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin. Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.
The candidate with the next highest favorable/unfavorable spread is Tim Pawlenty with a plus 48 margin. Like Bachmann, Pawlenty is well liked by caucus goers, but he has found it more difficult to move his overall polling number in the state. Pawlenty finished in third place in the poll by edgeing out Herman Cain, 8.8 percent to 8.5 percent. Pawlentys numbers have increased since the Des Moines Register poll showed him at 6 percent. A major factor could be the radio and television ads the Pawlenty campaign has been airing in the past few weeks.
Romney’s decline shouldn’t surprise too many people. He pulled out of the Ames poll next month, which is both an early test of the field and a fundraising opportunity for the state GOP. It’s not exactly shocking that enthusiastic Republican caucus goes might have gotten a little less enthusiastic about Romney after his withdrawal. I would expect a finish for Romney in Ames — and likely in January’s real caucus — at third or less.
Bachmann has to score well in Iowa and in the Ames poll to keep the media spotlight and political momentum. So does Pawlenty, who has gotten more aggressive in the state. His standing increased a little in this survey, barely edging out Herman Cain for third place, but he’s going in the right direction. Pawlenty needs a second place finish in January at a minimum to keep his presidential campaign viable, as New Hampshire will almost certainly belong to Romney. He has another four weeks until the Ames debate and straw poll to establish himself in his own backyard.
Still, the big questions for Bachmann and Pawlenty remain these: Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry. If either or both get in the race before Ames, they could find themselves swamped out of the spotlight and the enthusiasm of caucus-goers.
Andrew Malcolm looks at the new numbers as well.
In the primary, I intend to vote for whomever will piss off the MFM the most. I figure anybody who gets their panties in a twist has to be going in the right direction. Right now, it’s Bachmann.
No offense to Bachmann but certainly Sarah and maybe even Perry (because he’s a fresh face in the mix) will not be overshadowed by her if they get in. Bachmann is doing very well right now but as someone said “People like Bachmann but they love Sarah”. Star power of Sarah and her massive grassroots is no match for Bachmann in someplace like Iowa
RE: Michelle has been serving as a placeholder for her until the time is right.
And when would that be?
When she's ready. The election is in November 2012 and NOT November 2011.
The time is soon going to be up for Pawlenty to make a decision whether this venture is worth the cost in time and treasure. Unlike Palin, Bachmann or even Paul, he doesn’t have anything resembling a core following. I predict he’ll be the first to bow out.
Whenever she decides the optimal time is.
Reagan didn't declare until November.
If your know more than she does, perhaps you should run.
Obviously Michelle Bachmann and Iowa Republicans have Palin Derangement Syndrome.
RE: If your know more than she does, perhaps you should run.
How can you make such a conclusion based on a simple, relevant question?
If the election prospects of your chosen candidate depend upon what Sarah Palin does or does not do, then your chosen candidate is a loser who does not have a snowball’s chance in Hell anyway.
It does not look like efforts to slow her down are working.
I hope Palin gets in soon, before her supporters here completely flip out.
How can you make such a conclusion based on a simple, relevant question?
"Forget it Jake; it's PAS*".
*Palin Adoration Syndrome
Gallup poll Bachmann Intensity index down 17% while Palin is up 27%.Get the picture.
RE: If the election prospects of your chosen candidate depend upon what Sarah Palin does or does not do
I have no “Chosen Candidate”. I ask the above question because people keep posting the name of Sarah Palin on a Michele Bachmann thread.
Since I observe this, of course the relevant question pops up — when will the announcement be?
If it’s going to be November, so be it. I however wonder where her campaign organization is at this time...
RE: Gallup poll Bachmann Intensity index down 17% while Palin is up 27%.Get the picture.
The entire picture is fuzzy at best.
If Bachmann’s intensity is down, how do we explain her LEADING in Iowa ( yep, over Romney too )?
As for Sarah Palin, hey, I’d love for her to be the candidate.... but where’s her campaign presence in Iowa and New Hampshire? Or is she so confident that she’ll win in a heartbeat that she does not see the need to campaign in these two small states?
Good news indeed! Love to see the BDS toadies getting their panties all in a bunch! LOL
I doubt she'll be making any such announcement while she's still "on the clock" for jury duty. (That's apparently a 30-day window.) That pretty much rules out July.
But I've been guessing August 15 for a while, even without that particular complication -- that is, I'm thinking the timing may well be related to the Iowa Straw Poll, which is August 13. It's possible she might jump in just before, to try to capture a straw poll win and the corresponding headlines, but that event is all about paying to get supporters in the door to vote for you, which is not something you'd want to try to put together in a week or less. So, an announcement the following Monday could conceivably take the wind out of the winner's sails.
Furthermore, outside of political junkies, very few people are paying attention over the summer, and waiting to get into the race officially until, say Labor Day plus or minus a few weeks, doesn't really hurt with exposure to the general public. It appears that her campaign organization would likely be somewhat unconventional, so not lining up the "typical" organization support isn't as big of a deal, either.
(And, if such a strategy turns out to be a mistake, then perhaps she wasn't the right person for the job after all.)
Mid-August still gives her a good 6 weeks or so for fundraising before the Q3 reports have to be filed with the FEC, so plenty of time to raise money before the first filing.
The `Illuminati` have lost control of things... (LOL)
Iowa is tailor made for Bachmann. If she desn’t win there where would she win? I am surprised that anyone would be surprised that she would be leading Iowa at this point with the current field. You are also correct about that whackily worded pledge she signed.
Especially with Romney apparently ceding Iowa without a fight.
Reagan didn’t announce until “November” of 1979. Iowa and NH are the most over-rated primaries in the country!
I ‘will’ say this - whoever wins SC on JAN 28, will win the nomination!
-Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses
-Tuesday, January 24: New Hampshire
-Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses, South Carolina
-Tuesday, January 31: Florida
-Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):
Montana Republican caucuses,
Funny, I haven’t seen any Palin supporters flipping out. Palin supporters aren’t the ones continually asking, “When is she going to declare?”
True, but didn't the primaries/caucuses start much later in 1980 than they will in 2012? I really do think that September is pretty much the latest anyone can get it with a realistic chance.
Do yourself a favor & refocus on the principles/issues and forget about the personalities. This isn't a ball game.
IMHO the only reason to be in the race this early is to gain name recognition. Palin’s name recognition is 97%-98%. There is no upside for her to be in the race right now slogging it out with the also rans.
Of course Bachmann’s positive intensity ratings are dropping some. She started out with a quite high positive intensity rating but her name recognition was no where near as high when compared to some other candidates. Her name recognition has shot up dramatically over a short period of time. Her positive intensity rating is still high when compared to other candidates, but has lowered a bit in absolute terms as her name recognition shot up. The problem for her opponents is that she still has a high positive intensity rating relative to the rest of the field at the same time that her name recognition his rapidly rising.
Don’t try to project your feelings onto me.
Of those now running, I prefer Herman Cain but realistically, I don't see him winning. Michele Bachmann is someone I could easily support.
I’ll do better and ignore you from now on.
Freepers Love Sarah, time will tell who else does
Love her or hate her, the fact is, Palin will suck a ton of oxygen and attention away from other candidates if she announces.
Personally, I wonder if she would do more good as a non-candidate.
None of this has any meaning until Gov. Palin tosses her hat in the ring—or does not.
It’s all just hot air.
Then quit telling us you’re thinking about it, or you think you can win. Get in if you believe it otherwise quit sucking all the oxygen out of the room. And people say Bachmann is egotistical.
Bachmann is not a place holder for Palin. She is a candidate in her own right. Based on the Tea Party Conservatives who’ve 1. Carried the conservative flag the longest and 2. Survived repeated and brutal Demrat/media assaults on herself and her family my money is on Palin.
IMHO the final four will be Palin, Bachmann, Cain and West.
I think it will be difficult for a black man—no matter how conservatively principled, qualified or how he acquits himself in the so-called debates—to lead the GOP/conservative ticket. Reason: The Usurping Marxist Onada. He is all the reason far too many people will need to revert to old prejudices.
I don’t think two women can run as pres. and veep, respectively, either. Sadly, too many people—including women—will have a hard time voting for one woman let along two on the conservative ticket.
Therefore, I predict we will have Backmann or Palin as pres. candidate and Cain or West for Veep. I hope the primary process will cull out the alleged conservative late comers, RINOs, libertarians and so-called indies early so we can get on with winning the next election. Romney and Paul have had their chances in the past and have failed to generate much if any excitement. Pawlenty, Perry and some of the other new comers would be better served awaiting their turn.
Memo to GOP: It is not I who have to come to you. You must come to me and Tea Partyism or cease to exist as anything other than a demrat tool.
Hot Air july 4th poll Palin 37% Bachmann 20% Perry 19%.Head to head Palin 52% to 48% Bachmann.
Talk about a meaningless poll. LOL
MSM loves Bachmann for the most part!! Chris Matthews, Andrea Mitchell etc etc
All these pollsters are pushing MB, it is so clear. I am not suggesting MB has no support outside of the MSM/Rep Est, certainly she does, it`s just that they are manufacturing her support in these polls.
And for sure Palin is not in most of them
Got it. But Gov. Palin has not yet publicly committed to a prsidential run. Until she does your poll is hot air.
That said, I like the trend.
Let's see what kind of a campaign she can run. The fact she is remaining this strong after being ripped this hard from some in her own party - many who are like children waiting for an imaginary friend - bodes very well for her moving forward. Go Michele!