Skip to comments.Iowa poll: Bachmann by … 13? (Has Mitt Romney abandoned the State?)
Posted on 07/13/2011 6:32:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Serious question: Now that Romney has all but abandoned the state, why aren’t his supporters shifting to Pawlenty? Core Romney fans will stick with their guy, of course, if for no other reason than to deny votes to a candidate like T-Paw who poses a potential long-term threat. But what about all the Iowans who aren’t devoted Mittheads but simply prefer his more moderate managerial cred to Bachmann’s fire and brimstone? Why not get behind the only other candidate who’s (a) seriously contesting Iowa and (b) got the potential to go all the way? Mystifying.
Regardless, clock’s a-tickin’, Tim.
A new poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa by the Republican-leaning Magellan Strategies shows Bachmann with 29% of the vote. Next place finisher Mitt Romney has 16%. The Magellan field did not include Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa, or the (so far) non-running Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Rick Perry…
Bachmann’s winning big with men (she’s up 18% over Romney in the Magellan crosstabs), women (9%), seniors (10%), social conservatives (22%), fiscal conservatives (17%) and tea partiers (33%). Three percent in the Magellan survey said “other” and 24% said undecided. More women are undecided (30%) than support Bachmann (24%) and it’s the same story with seniors (27% undecided, 26% support Bachmann.)
Pawlenty finishes with eight percent, tied with Herman Cain. But maybe you’re thinking this is an outlier? Okay: Here’s a new Iowa poll from Mason/Dixon also showing Bachmann ahead — 32/29 over Romney this time, with Pawlenty in third at, um, seven percent. At the rate she’s going here, I’m expecting T-Paw’s talking points to shift within the week from “We need to do well at Ames” to “Eh, Ames doesn’t always predict the caucus winner anyway.” Help him, Rick Perry, you’re his only vote-splitting hope!
Here’s his new vid touting his evangelical bona fides for the benefit of caucus-goers. It was circulated via blast e-mail from his newest campaign advisor: Sarah Huckabee, daughter of you-know-ho.
Bachmann don’t have potential to go all the way???
My opinion of RINOs is that they would vote democrat if they cant get their guy for no other reason than to sit back and say “We told you so”.
Yeah, they’re still bottom feeding manipulative scum.
Keep it up Michelle!! Romney is a amnesty leaning inside the beltway Republican.
Can anyone explain what the heck happened to Romney in Iowa? He was leading just a few weeks back.
That's basically my definition of a RINO--someone whose political identity is so strongly based on an ability to "work with" the Democrats that they'd have no reason to exist if the Democrats were actually defeated. Such people are worse than useless, since they will protect the Democrats to their last breath unless they're deleted first. Since RINOs will have to be defeated in order to achieve victory over the Democrats, it would be better to expose the RINOs for what they are than to pretend that they are allies.
That last sentence is funny, since most of Huckabee’s supporters have shifted to Bachmann, NOT Pawlenty.
If I recall, he is not participating in the Ames straw poll, which probably turned off the voters for the short term (just a guess). Plus, IMO, Romney has just been a placeholder as the leader until others got more visibility. Straight out name recognition. As he comes out with these left views on global warming, etc, I am sure that turned people off too.
I am shocked at the level of traction Bachmann has gotten since that NH debate. I am not expecting it to last, but if no one else steps up, she could actually win this thing...something I would have never predicted as a possible outcome. I like MB quite a bit, but as a sitting Representative, this has been quite a performance so far and I have been impressed.
Michele runs like a girl.
And I LOVE IT!
He must be against ethanol subsidies. That's all those corn huskers care about come election time.
As it stands today, Bachmann is going to take Iowa.
Romney is going to take Nevada and NH, and Bachmann will come in second in NH.
Perry is going to take SC.
Notice that they didn’t ask about Gov. Palin in either poll? The 800lb grizzly and they ignore it.
“Can anyone explain what the heck happened to Romney in Iowa? He was leading just a few weeks back.”
He never really was...it’s still way to early. These polls mean nothing. The only reason for Romney was name recognition from last time around.
Somehow Bachmann’s people got my phone number and have been calling me incessantly and today I asked the to stop. So she has the money to annoy people with fund raising phone calls.
Willard can’t abandon where he’s barely been.
IMHO I think Palin is a patriot first. I think she will continue to draw the fire of the media as a shield for Cain and or Bachman. I do not expect to see her in the race unless Romney looks like he will win as the Republican nominee for president.
Pressure is on Bachmann to win the Ames Straw poll. Anything less than a big win will be an embarrassment.
That said, there's not a single person in the race now that can beat Obama.
Right now, I’d say that Paul is more likely of Bachmann and Cain. Depending on how long Bachmann is able to stick around.
As long is Bachmann is able to escape being seen as an object of ridicule, I see her doing well. I like her, if she was the nominee, I’d happily vote for her. She’s going to have trouble once Saturday Night Live gets back, which is September, October. Wiig is funny and has done Bachmann already. Who will they get to play Marcus?
I see Bachmann staying in maybe 3 weeks after SNL starts, if she’s not gone before then. First sketch would be Michelle and Marcus. Palin should be in by then. If not, interesting.
Bachmann will have a strong campaign organization in place with Ed Rollins and they’ve been doing all this ground work, and her numbers are looking good. Which is all good news for Sarah, because Palin #2 is testing messages and whatnot for Palin #1. A passable version of Palin is doing quite well. I like her, she’s saying the right things. I’d be happy to vote for her, and I might actually be super motivated because a humiliating defeat would be very bad. We want this to look like 80 and not 64. Remember what they did to Christine O’Donnell? Christine said a couple weird things. I can barely remember. Something about witches. And off they went. Because they had all those clips. Because Christine was a TV Big Shot. Christine was on TV all the time, national tv, all over the place when Michele was a professional foster parent. And they were ragging on Christine’s background. Bachmann probably just happened to be the closest looking to Palin, and was willing to try to be Palin #2.
I really think Christine should be up there. She should go for something. Yeah, try Christine out if Bachmann collapses due to excess mockery. There’s nothing new on Christine, and a lot of Christine’s clips are quite good. She can use that stuff to her advantage. It certainly would cause quite a stir. People know who she is. Moreso than Santorum, or Perry, or Huntsman, or Pawlenty, or Cain. And she did do well in the debates. She was doing a solid enough job against a Yale Law Grad. This is an interesting situation. (unless palin is in) Christine could easily get early support. She could hit Bachmanns numbers now as a direct replace. And she’s Catholic. Do it. She’s in the debate, she does a good job, she’s super pretty, she’s been studying the issues. Michele Bachmann is leading in quite a few polls. Clearly they aren’t comparing resumes, or bios, or looking at all at anything but what she is saying right now. This version of Palin will be crushed by SNL. Christine’s numbers were quite good in many key areas. Huge young black female turnout really didn’t help Christine, but Christine out performed McMahon in certain demos. Schiff coulda won.
I’m starting to really like this Christine idea. No bad votes to point to. They can do witch jokes again. She can read the tea party script well. She does well in debates. People gave her lots of money last year and will do so again.
I’m supporting Ron Paul. I’d give money to Christine as well. Palin should jump in when things get messy, and a Bachmann collapse would cause a “Draft Palin” movement I would assume, if she didn’t just jump in. That has got to be a pretty bad scenario for some people. Palin and Bachmann are likely the top 2 picks for a lot of people. I’d like to see Christine go right in there, and get slotted into the Bachmann campaign with Rollins. See what happens.
She raised over $2 Million in a week last year. All those people devastated about SNL crushing Bachmann, and Christine goes in there, ready for round 2.
Of course, Palin should be the one doing this. The conditions for Palin are good. Palin #2 doing well is good for Palin #1. Likely clear win, easy win. The polls are all over the place on Palin but some have her high and I tend to believe those.
She still would likely have to consider Ron Paul, who will be doing much better with the new TV hundred thousand dollar ad buy. Fantastic commercial, will be effective with tea party. He’s also going to be strong with independent males, and the young. Grassroots projects are targeting those markets. A lot of merchandising Ron Paul to those groups in somewhat atypical ways. Ron Paul is spending his money now, because he knows that it’s just going to build. The establishment candidates talk to the rich folks that they know, take money from the industries that they give special favors to, and then they’re done. They’re all maxed out. Not all candidates, Palin will get tons of money from regular folks, and I assume Bachmann does too, and so would Christine.
Christine had a lot of money left over. She has fans. And it would make the media insane if she jumped in after they knocked Bachmann out. Bachmann has gotten as far as she’s gotten without anybody really knowing her background. Christine can get that far. And it would be incredibly facinating to watch. It could be Bachmann to Christine to Palin, depending on how Christine goes. Paul / Christine, Palin / Paul. I’d like to see it that way, something like that. Even as the most Conservative, Ron Paul appeals to Independents and Democrats. Good for your ticket. He’ll be a strong force there’s nothing in his background that we don’t know. The grassroots is working on a ton of things, most good. Grassroots is IDing thousands of Ames Straw Poll people. Out of staters are being discouraged from attending. They want just Iowans. Other plans were being worked on to get people to the straw poll, but it wasn’t thought that they’d be needed. At least 3 different plans were discussed. Bachmann should still be strong, so I’m not sure that RP will win, but he should be strong.
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