Skip to comments.Iowa poll: Bachmann by … 13? (Has Mitt Romney abandoned the State?)
Posted on 07/13/2011 6:32:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Serious question: Now that Romney has all but abandoned the state, why aren’t his supporters shifting to Pawlenty? Core Romney fans will stick with their guy, of course, if for no other reason than to deny votes to a candidate like T-Paw who poses a potential long-term threat. But what about all the Iowans who aren’t devoted Mittheads but simply prefer his more moderate managerial cred to Bachmann’s fire and brimstone? Why not get behind the only other candidate who’s (a) seriously contesting Iowa and (b) got the potential to go all the way? Mystifying.
Regardless, clock’s a-tickin’, Tim.
A new poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa by the Republican-leaning Magellan Strategies shows Bachmann with 29% of the vote. Next place finisher Mitt Romney has 16%. The Magellan field did not include Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa, or the (so far) non-running Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Rick Perry…
Bachmann’s winning big with men (she’s up 18% over Romney in the Magellan crosstabs), women (9%), seniors (10%), social conservatives (22%), fiscal conservatives (17%) and tea partiers (33%). Three percent in the Magellan survey said “other” and 24% said undecided. More women are undecided (30%) than support Bachmann (24%) and it’s the same story with seniors (27% undecided, 26% support Bachmann.)
Pawlenty finishes with eight percent, tied with Herman Cain. But maybe you’re thinking this is an outlier? Okay: Here’s a new Iowa poll from Mason/Dixon also showing Bachmann ahead — 32/29 over Romney this time, with Pawlenty in third at, um, seven percent. At the rate she’s going here, I’m expecting T-Paw’s talking points to shift within the week from “We need to do well at Ames” to “Eh, Ames doesn’t always predict the caucus winner anyway.” Help him, Rick Perry, you’re his only vote-splitting hope!
Here’s his new vid touting his evangelical bona fides for the benefit of caucus-goers. It was circulated via blast e-mail from his newest campaign advisor: Sarah Huckabee, daughter of you-know-ho.
Bachmann don’t have potential to go all the way???
My opinion of RINOs is that they would vote democrat if they cant get their guy for no other reason than to sit back and say “We told you so”.
Yeah, they’re still bottom feeding manipulative scum.
Keep it up Michelle!! Romney is a amnesty leaning inside the beltway Republican.
Can anyone explain what the heck happened to Romney in Iowa? He was leading just a few weeks back.
That's basically my definition of a RINO--someone whose political identity is so strongly based on an ability to "work with" the Democrats that they'd have no reason to exist if the Democrats were actually defeated. Such people are worse than useless, since they will protect the Democrats to their last breath unless they're deleted first. Since RINOs will have to be defeated in order to achieve victory over the Democrats, it would be better to expose the RINOs for what they are than to pretend that they are allies.
That last sentence is funny, since most of Huckabee’s supporters have shifted to Bachmann, NOT Pawlenty.
If I recall, he is not participating in the Ames straw poll, which probably turned off the voters for the short term (just a guess). Plus, IMO, Romney has just been a placeholder as the leader until others got more visibility. Straight out name recognition. As he comes out with these left views on global warming, etc, I am sure that turned people off too.
I am shocked at the level of traction Bachmann has gotten since that NH debate. I am not expecting it to last, but if no one else steps up, she could actually win this thing...something I would have never predicted as a possible outcome. I like MB quite a bit, but as a sitting Representative, this has been quite a performance so far and I have been impressed.
Michele runs like a girl.
And I LOVE IT!
He must be against ethanol subsidies. That's all those corn huskers care about come election time.
As it stands today, Bachmann is going to take Iowa.
Romney is going to take Nevada and NH, and Bachmann will come in second in NH.
Perry is going to take SC.
Notice that they didn’t ask about Gov. Palin in either poll? The 800lb grizzly and they ignore it.
“Can anyone explain what the heck happened to Romney in Iowa? He was leading just a few weeks back.”
He never really was...it’s still way to early. These polls mean nothing. The only reason for Romney was name recognition from last time around.
Somehow Bachmann’s people got my phone number and have been calling me incessantly and today I asked the to stop. So she has the money to annoy people with fund raising phone calls.
Willard can’t abandon where he’s barely been.
IMHO I think Palin is a patriot first. I think she will continue to draw the fire of the media as a shield for Cain and or Bachman. I do not expect to see her in the race unless Romney looks like he will win as the Republican nominee for president.
Pressure is on Bachmann to win the Ames Straw poll. Anything less than a big win will be an embarrassment.
That said, there's not a single person in the race now that can beat Obama.
Right now, I’d say that Paul is more likely of Bachmann and Cain. Depending on how long Bachmann is able to stick around.
As long is Bachmann is able to escape being seen as an object of ridicule, I see her doing well. I like her, if she was the nominee, I’d happily vote for her. She’s going to have trouble once Saturday Night Live gets back, which is September, October. Wiig is funny and has done Bachmann already. Who will they get to play Marcus?
I see Bachmann staying in maybe 3 weeks after SNL starts, if she’s not gone before then. First sketch would be Michelle and Marcus. Palin should be in by then. If not, interesting.
Bachmann will have a strong campaign organization in place with Ed Rollins and they’ve been doing all this ground work, and her numbers are looking good. Which is all good news for Sarah, because Palin #2 is testing messages and whatnot for Palin #1. A passable version of Palin is doing quite well. I like her, she’s saying the right things. I’d be happy to vote for her, and I might actually be super motivated because a humiliating defeat would be very bad. We want this to look like 80 and not 64. Remember what they did to Christine O’Donnell? Christine said a couple weird things. I can barely remember. Something about witches. And off they went. Because they had all those clips. Because Christine was a TV Big Shot. Christine was on TV all the time, national tv, all over the place when Michele was a professional foster parent. And they were ragging on Christine’s background. Bachmann probably just happened to be the closest looking to Palin, and was willing to try to be Palin #2.
I really think Christine should be up there. She should go for something. Yeah, try Christine out if Bachmann collapses due to excess mockery. There’s nothing new on Christine, and a lot of Christine’s clips are quite good. She can use that stuff to her advantage. It certainly would cause quite a stir. People know who she is. Moreso than Santorum, or Perry, or Huntsman, or Pawlenty, or Cain. And she did do well in the debates. She was doing a solid enough job against a Yale Law Grad. This is an interesting situation. (unless palin is in) Christine could easily get early support. She could hit Bachmanns numbers now as a direct replace. And she’s Catholic. Do it. She’s in the debate, she does a good job, she’s super pretty, she’s been studying the issues. Michele Bachmann is leading in quite a few polls. Clearly they aren’t comparing resumes, or bios, or looking at all at anything but what she is saying right now. This version of Palin will be crushed by SNL. Christine’s numbers were quite good in many key areas. Huge young black female turnout really didn’t help Christine, but Christine out performed McMahon in certain demos. Schiff coulda won.
I’m starting to really like this Christine idea. No bad votes to point to. They can do witch jokes again. She can read the tea party script well. She does well in debates. People gave her lots of money last year and will do so again.
I’m supporting Ron Paul. I’d give money to Christine as well. Palin should jump in when things get messy, and a Bachmann collapse would cause a “Draft Palin” movement I would assume, if she didn’t just jump in. That has got to be a pretty bad scenario for some people. Palin and Bachmann are likely the top 2 picks for a lot of people. I’d like to see Christine go right in there, and get slotted into the Bachmann campaign with Rollins. See what happens.
She raised over $2 Million in a week last year. All those people devastated about SNL crushing Bachmann, and Christine goes in there, ready for round 2.
Of course, Palin should be the one doing this. The conditions for Palin are good. Palin #2 doing well is good for Palin #1. Likely clear win, easy win. The polls are all over the place on Palin but some have her high and I tend to believe those.
She still would likely have to consider Ron Paul, who will be doing much better with the new TV hundred thousand dollar ad buy. Fantastic commercial, will be effective with tea party. He’s also going to be strong with independent males, and the young. Grassroots projects are targeting those markets. A lot of merchandising Ron Paul to those groups in somewhat atypical ways. Ron Paul is spending his money now, because he knows that it’s just going to build. The establishment candidates talk to the rich folks that they know, take money from the industries that they give special favors to, and then they’re done. They’re all maxed out. Not all candidates, Palin will get tons of money from regular folks, and I assume Bachmann does too, and so would Christine.
Christine had a lot of money left over. She has fans. And it would make the media insane if she jumped in after they knocked Bachmann out. Bachmann has gotten as far as she’s gotten without anybody really knowing her background. Christine can get that far. And it would be incredibly facinating to watch. It could be Bachmann to Christine to Palin, depending on how Christine goes. Paul / Christine, Palin / Paul. I’d like to see it that way, something like that. Even as the most Conservative, Ron Paul appeals to Independents and Democrats. Good for your ticket. He’ll be a strong force there’s nothing in his background that we don’t know. The grassroots is working on a ton of things, most good. Grassroots is IDing thousands of Ames Straw Poll people. Out of staters are being discouraged from attending. They want just Iowans. Other plans were being worked on to get people to the straw poll, but it wasn’t thought that they’d be needed. At least 3 different plans were discussed. Bachmann should still be strong, so I’m not sure that RP will win, but he should be strong.
Every candidate has a better resume than she does.
She’s the prettiest, and can read the tea party script the best. She’s Palin #2. Bachmann’s resume is just not Presidential.
Palin has a great resume full of good things.
You have the basketball player, and the miss wasilla, and the sportscaster. She went to a lot of colleges, but she finished fairly quickly, and the miss alaska thing was in the middle of that. It’s not the way the elites would have you do it, but she did experience a wider variety of things in that 5 year period than someone who didn’t. A short period of time, right after that, sportscaster. cool. Then right after that marries Todd and works with him on the fishing business. That sounds cool. People will like that.
And then, after about 4 years, onto a series of elected positions. City Council, Mayor of Wasilla, Oil and Gas Commissioner, Governor. That’s a wide range of executive and legislative positions. And she did good things when she was there. She was extremely popular. If she was a terrible governor, why was she so popular? Palin’s story is a great story. No Washington Experience. That makes her an Outsider. Outsider is good.
I really would like to see the biggest Bachmann defender out there really type out the full explanation for her resume, try to give it the most positive spin. Why was working for the IRS such a dream job, that you went to 2 law schools instead of just going to one and doing a different law job?
Something that would explain that. And why was the IRS the only job she had, except for the government paying to take care of foster kids. and then state senate and us rep
That’s it. IRS, Babysitting, State Senate (6 yrs), US Rep (4.5 years), and her husbands “pray the gay away” business.
Sarah Palin’s story has “basketball player, good” “miss wasilla, good” “sportscaster, good” “fishing, good”
“council, good low legislative” “mayor, good low executive” Oil and Gas, good high administrative, Governor, good top state executive” Pretty much full experience on a state level and there’s nothing at all but good. No Washington, but she’s an Outsider.
Most is bad. winona state, ok, oral roberts law school, does not appeal to most. Would be a negative. Then William and Mary, a positive. (why did law school take so long for her? what was she doing those other years? something super heroic?) Then IRS (cmon, this is not something you want on your resume if you want someone to vote for you), and then a Professional Foster Parent (this is bad, not in the same way as IRS is bad. I mean, it’s great that there are foster parents, I mean, where would all the kids that the government takes away go? And that’s where money came from, from the foster kids for 8 years, and from Marcus curing the gays. Listen, this was their life 12 years ago. She was getting paid to babysit girls with eating disorders and he was curing gays. There’s an SNL sketch right there. Clearly the girls with the eating disorders are going to be dating the gays in this sketch. And she ran for school board and lost. This was 1999. This does not scream out “make me President”. This screams out kinda crazy, marginal sketchy people. And then she got elected. She is pretty, and can get on message and debates well. But she does inspire hope to all of us who have some sketchiness in their past that all they have to do is look good, get the right script and put in 10 years, get elected to 3 terms in the house, and you can be the Republican Nominee, or get along as far in the process as she has. Did you make any money not directly from the government? Advantage, you. Did you work at a job more popular than the IRS? Advantage, you. Did you work at a job filled with more useful learning experiences than babysitting? Advantage, you. 10 years of law school to do 5 years of IRS work, followed by 8 years of babysitting. 23 years of Michele Bachmann’s life.
At least it wasn’t confusing like Christine O’Donnell’s, which was “I got paid to say Conservative Moral Things on TV” Which is exactly what they want to hear. I like Christine’s resume. It has saving lives in it.
And 2 other new Iowa polls only have her up by 3...HHMMMMM
13 or 3? Which is it
Bachmann is not going anywhere
How do we know he was leading a few weeks ago? How do we know Bachmann is leading now?
All the pollsters have an agenda! Tell me how 1 poll has MB up 13 and 2 have her up by only 3?
Gov Palin is not in the vast majority of them.
All pollsters come from either MSM or Rep Est, both groups want Bachmann to be out front.
And Btw the next time some one says to you...well the “very respected” Dem Register says this or that...just LOL
Why anybody in this day and age would believe any biased political poll is beyond me??? They all have an agenda, they know what result they are looking for before they do the poll.
I have been saying this here at FR before I ever heard of Sarah Palin.
Speaking of Gov Palinh, she will win the nomination and the Presidency, but she will never again lead in ANY poll..Trust me!!!