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The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections
Intrade ^

Posted on 07/17/2011 10:14:45 AM PDT by astuddis

72.7% chance

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TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
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To: astuddis
The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections

Not with Carly Fiorina helping.

41 posted on 07/17/2011 11:50:27 AM PDT by upchuck (No increase PERIOD! Hope & Change = Ball & Chain)
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To: blueyon

No the stim is used up AFAIK.
And it looks like there will be a lot more state and local govt employee layoffs in 012.
Even Baraq’s econ czar Goolsbee predicts 8.2% unemployment by election day and you know he’s hopelessly optimistic.


42 posted on 07/17/2011 11:55:25 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: astuddis

Will it even matter by then?


43 posted on 07/17/2011 12:11:13 PM PDT by Figment ("A communist is someone who reads Marx.An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx" R Reagan)
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To: astuddis

It’s not enough to control the Senate. We need at least 70 senators. You don’t think Snowe and Collins are going to vote for anything useful do you?

Plus there are a few more wobbly ones. McCain will do nothing useful on immigration, for instance. 70 is the bare minimum.

Otherwise, all we can do is stall the progres of “progress”. Which isn’t a bad thing, but it could be much better.


44 posted on 07/17/2011 12:12:38 PM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: astuddis

It’s not enough to control the Senate. We need at least 70 senators. You don’t think Snowe and Collins are going to vote for anything useful do you?

Plus there are a few more wobbly ones. McCain will do nothing useful on immigration, for instance. 70 is the bare minimum.

Otherwise, all we can do is stall the progres of “progress”. Which isn’t a bad thing, but it could be much better.


45 posted on 07/17/2011 12:14:16 PM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: astuddis
Given that both Political parties are inherently corrupt, does it really make any difference who's in charge anymore???
46 posted on 07/17/2011 12:14:41 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: nascarnation

We need a filibuster proof margin first. Otherwise decent bill won’t even make it to Hussein’s desk


47 posted on 07/17/2011 12:17:04 PM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: chesley

That’s a tough level to reach also IMHO.


48 posted on 07/17/2011 12:20:12 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: nascarnation
It is, indeed. I doubt we can do it. But maybe, just maybe, getting rid of the pseudo-Christian, black racist, pro-Islam, constitutionally ineligible, America hating, fraud in the White House, and gaining a majority in the Senate, and hopefully increasing our majority in the House, will demoralize the brain-dead bigots that comprise the Democratic party leadership enough so that we can do some good. Maybe.
49 posted on 07/17/2011 12:28:42 PM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: Navy Patriot

The thing is, if the Tea party guy loses to a RINO, well, he’s still not a Democrat.

I once voted for the Communist on the ticket because he was the only guy running against the Democrat. No Republican to vote for.

Almost, almost I say, any RINO beats any Democrat. At least with the RINO, they can’t claim they have a mandate. And maybe the RINO can be pressured.

Not that I intend to vote for one in the primaries. I’ve pretty much narrowed it down to the Bachmann or Cain. I’m keeping my option open though so I’ll know who to vote for, or more likely against, if they have both dropped out by the time it gets to my state.


50 posted on 07/17/2011 12:34:48 PM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: Redmen4ever

Texas has a chance to have a Pick-Up of the other kind. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, just one of our two RINO Senators, is retiring. Let’s hope we can get a true Conservative to replace her. Then it’s on to oust Cornyn in 2014.


51 posted on 07/17/2011 1:17:07 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: astuddis
The GOP has a better chance of taking the Senate than they do of holding the House, though I think they'll do both. But nobody should assume the House is in the bag. Redistricting won't help the GOP as much as many might think, and will gain Dems seats in some states, notably Illinois. The GOP took quite a few historically Dem House seats in 2010, but with a higher turnout in the Presidential election year of 2012, some of those will be very difficult to hold.

Not trying to play Debbie Downer here, but let's not get overconfident.

52 posted on 07/17/2011 1:51:35 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: mulligan

Nothing will improve,but at least that asshole Reid won’t be pontificating daily.


53 posted on 07/17/2011 2:31:42 PM PDT by Farmer Dean (stop worrying about what they want to do to you,start thinking about what you want to do to them)
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To: Clintonfatigued; randita; InterceptPoint; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; ...

I hope we break the “can’t beat more than 2 incumbent rats in one cycle” spell. I was certain we would in 2010 but no. Still haven’t done it since 1980.

With both Nelsons, Brown, McCaskill, and Tester we OUGHT to be able to.

If we can’t it’s a good thing 4 of their open seats are prime opportunities.


54 posted on 07/17/2011 3:09:56 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy; GOPsterinMA; Crichton; AuH2ORepublican; Dengar01; darkangel82; randita

Yeah, we only kicked out 2 Dems in the general in AR (Lincoln) and WI (Feingold), when it should’ve been (at minimum) 4 or 5. The nominees were just inexcusably plain lousy in CO & NV, 2 easily winnable races. It’s frustrating that the Dems have routinely benefitted in Senate race sweeps against our incumbents with the national mood, while conversely we only do well when theirs retire (I estimated in 1994 had many of the Dem incumbents not retired, we probably would’ve come up short by a seat or two).

I would love for us to have a 1958-style sweep, which was the biggest single gain for either party since the popular vote was instituted, literally going from a near tie to about 1/3rd. It took 22 years for us to climb out of that hole (and 28 from the time we’d last win it until winning it again). The Dems alone took out the last 2 GOP incumbents from WV in that one election, and have never given them back.

With careful planning and recruiting starting back in the ‘90s, we need not have ever had the situations that occurred in 2000 (the tie) or the 2006/08 debacles, keeping us either at or above 60 as a cushion, so that if and when we drop 10 seats in bad cycles, we still can narrowly control that body (similar to how the Dems effectively did so with little interruption beginning in the popular era in the early 1910s clear through to today, with only the ‘20s being the only single decade we had control, with only 2 two-year (1947-49; 1953-55), 1 four-year (2003-07) and 1 six-year (1995-2001) cycles since).

We’ve been very poor at doing so, and part of it comes from erring on the side of tired old RINOs and establishment types rather than engaging a new generation of hard-charging Conservative outsiders (although conversely the outsider groups made clear-cut mistakes in recruiting or nominating badly flawed individuals) or failing to instill in popular Governors from states with Dem Senators that they should be duty-bound to step up when needed and serve in DC, even if for just a single term. The Democrats have often been better with that angle, although not always.


55 posted on 07/17/2011 3:58:01 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

You didn’t mention DE along with CO and NV in talking about lousy candidates. It’s a common assumption that Castle would have beaten Coons - not so sure. But O’Donnell was at least as bad as Angle, IMO.

In 2010, most of the districts who leaned conservative, but had a Rat pretender as rep, kicked out the Rat pretender. Not all, but most. Let’s hope that the states which lean conservative decide to kick out the Rat Senate pretenders in 2012.

Obamacare forced a lot of those Rats (Nelson, e.g.) to show their liberal hands. They took a vote (some with obvious quid pro quos) they can’t disavow and made themselves sitting ducks for the GOP challenger. People in those states know for certain than even though their sitting Rat Senator claims to be moderate, they’re liberal through and through.

I’m just sorry that Manchin didn’t have to go on the record for or against Obamacare or Cap and Tax. He would have voted for them, no doubt, but not having to go on record allows him to parade around not only as a moderate, but as a conservative.

Another big disappointment in the same vein as the lack of success in Senate gains is the lack of success in House special elections. Save Djou’s win last May, when’s the last time we won a special? NY-26 made me sick.


56 posted on 07/17/2011 4:29:43 PM PDT by randita
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To: bgill

Exactly, it is hard to get excited.


57 posted on 07/17/2011 4:31:04 PM PDT by dforest
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To: randita

I didn’t mention DE’s O’Donnell on purpose because I believed accomplishing the goal of beating the DIABLO Castle was of paramount importance. Coons was nothing more but a ringer for Castle, and I firmly believe a private deal was struck that would allow Castle that “win” and he would then switch to the Democrats in time (I also believe a similar situation was struck in IL with the vile Mark Kirk). He’d already spent 20 years running the DE GOP into the ground to the point that it was a rump of the DE Democrats with him as the sole “Republican.” The GOP establishment pretended as if this was a legit race and thanks to liberal phonies like Karl Rove, acted all indignant that O’Donnell would dare to defeat an apostate like Castle and did their damndest to assure a Marxist booster/kook like Coons won without a hassle. A total joke.

I’ll add in conclusion that I absolutely believe that the party establishments are in bed with one another, most especially where the Senate is concerned. Way too much collusion and chumminess.


58 posted on 07/17/2011 5:02:46 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: noinfringers2; csmusaret
From my take from the graph before Obama (blue) to after Obama (red) Obama
has been increasing the public debt about 2x +or- faster as in previous years.

Yhea....the graphs, show the startling rise of the debt.
be sure to thank; csmusaret, for that graph, I "borrowed" it.


59 posted on 07/17/2011 7:34:16 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (You do not have to smear (Pharaoh / Imam / DumboEars) Obama w/ lies....the truth does a fine job. :)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
I didn’t mention DE’s O’Donnell on purpose because I believed accomplishing the goal of beating the DIABLO Castle was of paramount importance.

I'll second.

60 posted on 07/18/2011 6:11:33 AM PDT by randita
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