Skip to comments.The Government Employment-Unemployment Shell Game
Posted on 07/21/2011 10:26:47 AM PDT by Kaslin
Here are some interesting charts from reader Tim Wallace regarding "covered employees", those employees that have unemployment insurance.
Covered Employees by Quarter Since 2000
click on any chart for sharper image
Note that the number of covered employees is still below the 2004 trough and that it took 16 quarters in the wake of the 2001 recession to get back above the pre-recession highs.
It has now been 11 quarters since the 2008 high. However, we are still not back to the previous recession dip.
Change in Covered Employee Coverage by Quarter
Cumulative Change in Coverage Since 1st Quarter 2000
No Driver for Jobs
The number of covered employees soared during the housing and commercial real estate bubbles and at the end of the dot-com bubble.
What will be the next big driver for employment? I cannot come up with any nor do I think there will be any in the midst of a Schumpeterian Depression phase of the Long Wave trough.
That is one of the reasons I proclaimed three years ago "expect structurally high unemployment for a decade". The others reasons are global wage arbitrage, tax policy, and massive consumer debt.
For a detailed explanation of Schumpeterian Depression please scroll down to the sections of Creative Destruction labeled Comments From "BC" followed by Schumpeterian Depression.
Slowing Global Economy
Bear in mind the global economy is slowing with many structural problems as noted yesterday in Gold Reacts With "Big Yawn" to ECB Announcement
Partial List of Problems
- Sovereign debt default crisis in Eurozone PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain.
- US debt ceiling concerns
- US fiscal deficit concerns
- US total debt concerns
- Reckless, unsustainable credit growth in China
- Rampant inflation in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the BRIC countries.
- Yuan peg to the US dollar
- Debt and deficit concerns in the UK
- Japan interest rate and total debt concerns
- Massive global trade imbalances
I could easily add another 10 items related to global housing bubbles, demographics, unfunded future liabilities, state pension plans etc.
Mish,Closer Look at the Self-Employed
In the jobless claims data, "covered employed" dropped by 8.3 million people during the recession it has since recovered by only 247,323 people. Yet, as estimated by the monthly "establishment" and "household" surveys, there have been between 1.4 million and 1.7 million jobs created. Why are those not "covered employed" positions?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com