Why South Korea is Eyeing Nukes

The Diplomat ^ | 07/27/11 | Richard Weitz

[TigerLikesRooster]

Why South Korea is Eyeing Nukes

East Asia | Security | South Korea

July 27, 2011By Richard Weitz

Concern about US security guarantees has prompted debate in South Korea over the possibility of redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons – or building some themselves.

Comments by influential South Koreans that their country should consider requesting the return of US nuclear weapons to their shores—or even acquire its own nuclear weapons—reflects persistent unease about how regional security developments are challenging US extended security guarantees developed during the Cold War.

In the case of South Korea, the United States pledged through a bilateral mutual defence treaty to help defend the country from an external attack, presumably from North Korea, with nuclear weapons if necessary. The deployment of sizeable US conventional forces in South Korea was aimed at making these extended security guarantees more credible.

The effectiveness of deterrence is difficult to prove, since by definition nothing happens. If a country is deterred from attacking, it is a non-event. Sceptics can plausibly argue that perhaps the presumed aggressor never intended to attack, or at least refrained from the assault for other reasons. Still, the North Korean invasion of the South was never repeated, perhaps due to US threats to retaliate—something that was lacking before June 1950.

Extended deterrence is a function of capacity, will, and perception. It requires that the guarantor has the capacity to defend another country under attack as well as the intent to do so, and this capacity-will combination must be perceived by the target as sufficiently strong that the potential aggressor decides to refrain.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[John123]

The effectiveness of deterrence is difficult to prove

I don't think any country with nuclear weapons has ever been invaded... sounds like a pretty effective deterrent to me.

[Pan_Yan]

... since the weapons would be more visible and could more plausibly be fired, perhaps inadvertently, following an attack.

Inadvertently fire a nuclear weapon?

[Jack Hammer]

Given South Korea’s position vis a vis both North Korea and China, the real question is why haven’t they obtained nukes long before this?

[TigerLikesRooster]

They tried. Remember Jimmah Eff’ng Carter? He derailed SK’s first bid for nuke.

[bmwcyle]

The North has been working with nukes since they secured the Japanese nuke program running in their country since WW II. We have given south a defense since the late 1940’s. Now other countries have seen how we ran out on all our current allies. I am not surprised.

[RayChuang88]

What South Korea probably wants are 0.5 to 1 kT nuclear artillery shells—such shells would stop a full-scale North Korean invasion fairly quickly, because frankly, North Korea may have a big army for “show” but how effective is their weaponry?

[TigerLikesRooster]

That and IRBM’s.

[railroader]

I don't think any country with nuclear weapons has ever been invaded

One exception would be Argentina's 1982 invasion of the UK's Falkland Islands.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Tom Friedman must be so proud. Chinese foreign policy is leading to the nuclearization of Japan and South Korea and driving Vietnam into the arms of the U.S.

[Iris7]

I have some personal information on US nuclear weapons in Korea during the 1970's. The trigger was nearly pulled on at least several occasions. In South Korea's shoes, with Obama having Permissive Action Link control of all US warheads, I would most affirmatively get my own serious level nuclear weapon and delivery systems on line as soon as possible.

You think Obama would pull the trigger if the North invades? Hah. Give me a break.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Even now Obama and Hitlery are pressure SK behind the scene to do a deal with NK, so that they could do it with NK, too. They cannot muster courage to brazenly engage NK, now that most of people in D.C. finally got what NK regime is really about. They want SK to provide some fig leaf.

Initial hesitancy from Lee Myung-bak in Cheonan incident and the shelling of West Sea islands may have been influenced, at least in part, by American pressure behind the scene. They want Lee to exercise god-d*mn "Admirable Restraint." It is unsettling to see that this phrase is still tossed around in D.C. and MSM media.