Skip to comments.Perry pulls into statistical tie with Romney in Gallup poll
Posted on 07/27/2011 10:49:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Of all the potential late entrants into the Republican nomination contest, the one who gives Mitt Romney the toughest fight is Rick Perry, according to the latest Gallup poll. If Perry, Sarah Palin, and Rudy Giuliani all get into the race, Perry comes in just two points behind Romney and ahead of Palin and Giuliani, while Michele Bachmann falls to fifth place — well within the margin of error:
Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.
Gallup asked respondents to choose among all 11 current and potential candidates, and then asked for their second and third choices. The second and third choices are used to simulate preferences when certain combinations of unannounced candidates are excluded from the race. Three such scenarios include the eight announced candidates plus one of the unannounced candidates. Palin, Perry, and Giuliani finish in no worse than a statistical tie for second place when each is pitted against the eight firm candidates.
If only Perry gets in the race, he starts off five points behind Romney — and five points ahead of Bachmann, who loses four points in the transaction. Palin comes in at 15 if alone, one point behind Bachmann in a statistical tie for second place, while Giuliani gets 14%, three behind Bachmann for third place, without Palin or Perry. Romney holds 23% in each model.
The numbers between conservatives and moderates/liberals are also interesting. Gallup didn’t run separate models for that breakdown as they did with the overall numbers, but if all three jump into the race, Perry ties Romney for the lead with conservatives at 18%. His support drops off considerably with moderates/liberals, finishing tied for fifth place with Bachmann. Giuliani wins that demographic at 16%, two points ahead of Romney and Palin. Somewhat surprisingly, Palin only scores 11% among conservatives, a fourth-place finish behind Romney, Perry, and Bachmann.
Needless to say, the other candidates in the field barely change positions with or without the three late entrants. All of them had better hope for lightning to strike in Ames in a couple of weeks, at the debate and then at the straw poll. Without some sort of breakout performance, an entry of any of the three maybes will swamp out any hope of getting the kind of media attention that will build momentum in the fall.
RE: If he’s the nominee, I’m working for/supporting/voting for the Tea Party candidate.
It’s looking like you’ll be supporting Michele Bachmann then...
I gotta admit, I don’t know much about Perry, just trying to get caught up.
So far, I’m a Palin fan, if she runs. Then comes Herman Cain and then Bachmann, pretty much in that order but it’s subject to change.
I have noticed that all of the candidates and presumptive candidates have been labeled as rinos at one time or another on this forum.
There are only two candidates that I’d never vote for, under any circumstances and they are Romney and Huntsman. I do not classify them as rinos, they are out and out liberal democrats.
My great fear: Bachmann, Palin, Perry, Cain, Romney in the primaries. Who walks away with a plurality of the primary votes? Especially in “open primary” states.
I guess I coulda put all this in one post, oh well. Here in Illinois on primary day, you walk into the polling place, tell them your name, (No Id. required), they ax you which ballot you want, you tell them rep or dem, they hand you your choice. Is this what is known as “open primary”? Sounds like it to me.
I can see scads of rats voting in our republican primary because ozero pretty much has a lock here, even if he is opposed in the socialist/communist/demoncrat primary.
(Screw spell check, I spell words the way I want to)
Pretty sad (for Romney) that after campaigning virtually non stop since 2008, the best he can do is a tie with someone that hasn’t even decided to run.
It sure looks that way.
I'm just afraid that Rick Perry might be the Juan McCain of the 2012 election cycle.
Rick Perry is Mitt Romney without the enthusiasm for socialized medicine.
Mitt Romney is Rick Perry without the enthusiasm for illegal aliens.
I’m tellin’ you guys, it’s going to be Perry/Bachman for 2012.
If Palin doesn't run, I bet the ticket will be Perry/Rubio.
Rick Perry is just another RINO.
more: Key prayer-event sponsor says Rick Perry blew it http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=326145#ixzz1TFUcFAla
The Rah Rah boy misses the boat big time!
What a ridiculous comparison considering Perry has a nearly perfect pro-life record while Romney was attending Planned Parenthood fundraisers in Massachusetts. Romney didn't do a thing to stop gay marriage in Massachusetts while Perry signed legislation outlawing it.
BFD...if either one of them gets the nod, Obama wins.
I think Palin has the ability to rally the conservative vote. Also, Romney does not have a chance in Iowa, so I can see the conservative losers in Iowa dropping out and endorsing whoever wins Iowa, or at least conservatives in the rest of the country taking their cue from them. As long the conservative vote is not split too much in South Carolina, the conservative will probably win the nomination.
Its looking like youll be supporting Michele Bachmann then ... SeekAndFind
So, if Perry is the GOP nominee, you expect the Tea Party to be suicidal, go Third Party and guarantee the reelection of Barack Obama?
And you are saying that you will help Barack Obama get reelected?
Sorry, but the Tea Party is not suicidal like you are.
The Tea Party is looking for VICTORY and the saner heads realize that Michelle Bachmann is as absolutely unelectable in the general election as Christine O'Donnell was.
Given the choice between Victory and Suicide, the Tea Party will choose Victory.
The Tea Party is already hinting that it is choosing Victory.
July 27, 2011: Tea Party Leader Blasts Romney, Praises Perry ..... While taking pains to emphasize that he is not prepared to endorse a presidential candidate, a leader of one of the nation's largest and most prominent Tea Party groups on Wednesday harshly criticized former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and went out of his way to lavish praise upon Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is expected to enter the race next month. ..... "You hear all across the country nowadays that Texas created about half the jobs in the U.S. in the last couple of years, and so I think you've got the Texas miracle going on while a lot of the rest of the country seems to be sinking," he said. "And in a time of economic strife, I think that's potentially a game-changer for him to enter the fray."
There is absolutely no way on Earth that the majority of American voters will vote to have Michele Bachmann's finger on the Nuclear Button when the Obama campaign comes out with this "Phone Rings at the White House at Three O'Clock in the Morning" commercial:
The commercial will start with Michele Bachmann asking the American voters to elect her Commander-in-Chief.
Then, the commercial will play a video tape of Michele Bachmann saying that she believes that it is her religious duty to God to be "submissive" to Marcus Bachmann when he tells her to do something, whether she wants to do it or not.
Bachmann:(At 1:25) Michele Bachmann tells a megachurch audience that she did what Marcus Bacmann told her to do, regarding her post graduate education, even though she did not want to do it, because she says it is her religious duty to be "submissive" to Marcus Bachmann
The commercial will then end with this image.
Marcus Bachmann: Finger on the Nuclear Button by Submissive Religious Proxy
Wifely submission is clearly commanded in Scripture. If this is an issue for you, perhaps we should question the entire premise of women running for office.