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Five most vulnerable Dems in redistricting (Carnahan, Shuler, Critz, Peters, Kissell, others)
The Hill ^ | 8/20/11 | Cameron Joseph

Posted on 08/20/2011 1:39:41 PM PDT by Libloather

Five most vulnerable Dems in redistricting
By Cameron Joseph - 08/20/11 07:30 AM ET

Congress’s lines are being redrawn, putting some longtime incumbents in a tough spot heading into next year’s election. Due to population shifts and partisan interests, some congressional districts are undergoing extreme makeovers, forcing their representatives to run in unfamiliar and sometimes inhospitable territory. Here are the five most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

#5: Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.)
Missouri is losing a congressional district, and Republicans in control of the Missouri statehouse overrode Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon’s veto to axe Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis district. He still plans to run for Congress and seems to be leaning towards a Republican-leaning district that includes much of the territory represented by Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), who is running for the Senate. His centrist record could help keep him in the House, but the district is about 53 percent Republican and he may face a rematch with Republican Ed Martin, who lost to Carnahan in a more Democratic district by just two points in 2010.

#4: Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.)
Shuler, a centrist Blue Dog Democrat, survived the 2010 wave election in a Republican-leaning western North Carolina district. But Republicans have made his district even more conservative in redistricting, removing half of the liberal college town Asheville from the district. Shuler’s nine-point win in a terrible year for Democrats proves he will be a tough foe, but while the old district gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 52 percent of the vote the new one would have given him at least 58 percent.

#3: Mark Critz (D-Pa.)
Pennsylvania is losing a congressional district and Republicans are in control of the map-drawing process. The southwest part of the state he hails from has had the slowest population growth and Critz’s district can be easily parceled out to Republicans without weakening them too much. He may be paired with fellow centrist Democrat Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) in a tossup district, or may choose to run an uphill race against Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) in a heavily Republican district.

#2: Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.)
Michigan lost population in the last decade and the Republicans in control of the statehouse targeted Peters’s suburban Detroit district for removal. He has few good options: he could either take on longtime and popular Rep. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) in a primary, or take on a nearby Republican in a tough to win district, possibly Rep. Thad McCotter (R-Mich.).

#1: Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
Like Shuler, Kissell survived a competitive 2010 race, winning with 53 percent of the vote. But he is known as more of a liberal and his district goes from one that would have given McCain 47 percent of the vote to one that would have given him 57 percent of the vote.

Honorable mentions: Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (Calif.), Linda Sanchez (Calif.), Brad Sherman (Calif.), John Barrow (Ga.), Bill Keating (Mass.), Mike McIntyre (N.C.), Brad Miller (N.C.), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Leonard Boswell (Iowa).


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; US: California; US: Georgia; US: Iowa; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Missouri; US: North Carolina; US: Pennsylvania; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2012; california; dems; elections; georgia; iowa; jaynixon; massachusetts; michigan; missouri; northcarolina; pennsylvania; redistricting; texas
That's a shame.
1 posted on 08/20/2011 1:39:49 PM PDT by Libloather
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To: Libloather

I am against this. I rather politicians lose on ideas then being able to pick their voters


2 posted on 08/20/2011 1:46:07 PM PDT by GreaterSwiss
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To: Libloather

Asheville is not a college town, and it was more like 85% was taken out of the 11th district.


3 posted on 08/20/2011 1:47:12 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Yes)
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To: Libloather

I was hoping that the Texas GOP would target Hurricane Sheila. Sorry to see that she didn’t make the list.


4 posted on 08/20/2011 1:52:32 PM PDT by ConservaTexan (February 6, 1911)
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To: GreaterSwiss

I agree. Districts should be drawn by a computer and the sole parameters should be driving radius to polling place and necessary population.

Skin color, Religion, freakishness or normalness should not play into it.


5 posted on 08/20/2011 1:55:05 PM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Fight for Liberty)
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To: Libloather

With the screeching coming out of Conyers district, you’d think his seat had been eliminated.


6 posted on 08/20/2011 1:56:44 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin)
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To: FreeAtlanta

That’s more of a census issue than anything. If the census just recorded pure numbers, there would be nothing to base gerrymandering on.

However, as populations grow and shrink we’d still need a means of deciding who loses a district and where to place a new district.


7 posted on 08/20/2011 2:00:06 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin)
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To: Libloather

Shuler needs to go! He has stated he would not vote to repeal Health Care and he was/is a Nancy Pelosi butt-boy.....Call him as much of a Blue-dog as you like(he didn’t vote for Obamacare or Debt Ceiling) but only because Dems didn’t need his vote!


8 posted on 08/20/2011 2:01:23 PM PDT by jakerobins
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To: Libloather

I live in the District Shuler represents. This is damn good news! I hope we can get a first rate candidate.


9 posted on 08/20/2011 2:02:34 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

Asheville isn’t a college town? You mean somebody stole UNC Asheville?!


10 posted on 08/20/2011 2:05:15 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: Libloather

WRT Mr. Shuler and his district.

Asheville is known as the gayest small city in the world.
For sometime it prided its self in spelling its name
A_Sheville after all the short haired ladies residing there.
Gimmorah to the south is a common way of referring to the place.
Too bad the town wasn’t moved to Mercury or Venus.

There are several colleges there or nearby. One of Gingrich’s pals is a prof at one of them.


11 posted on 08/20/2011 2:13:26 PM PDT by palmerizedCaddis (Gaffe-Meister in chief Joe Biden has never said there are fifty seven states. Leave it to Zero!)
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To: palmerizedCaddis

Asheville is to lesbians what San Frans tenderloin district is to butt pirates


12 posted on 08/20/2011 3:02:15 PM PDT by OldGoatCPO (`)
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To: palmerizedCaddis

Asheville is to lesbians what San Frans tenderloin district is to butt pirates


13 posted on 08/20/2011 3:02:40 PM PDT by OldGoatCPO (`)
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To: randita

FYI


14 posted on 08/20/2011 3:33:16 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (w)
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To: All
We were there in May, and saw “Keep Asheville Weird” bumper stickers.
Apparently it's also a T-shirt...:^)

http://www.zazzle.com/keep_asheville_weird_tshirt-235933582912965280

Yep.. not too many (R)s here —


15 posted on 08/20/2011 4:00:40 PM PDT by az_gila
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To: InterceptPoint

They’re on the list :)


16 posted on 08/20/2011 5:34:51 PM PDT by randita (Obama - chains you can bereave in.)
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To: Libloather

Eh. Will make no difference in the end. Most of the population from the blue states are relocating to enclaves in red states. Then, they elect Dems and thus pollute their adopted states. They bring their filth with them.


17 posted on 08/20/2011 5:51:08 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Rick Perry: Looks like Joe Isuzu, acts like Grant Woods [AZ joke])
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To: Libloather

The article only mentions Dems possibly at risk but ignores the Republicans in CA who are on the chopping block.


18 posted on 08/20/2011 5:51:08 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: saganite
I hope we can get a first rate candidate.

That's the problem isn't it?I'm a GA voter but spend a lot of time in Macon Co. The Schuler's predecessor was a crook. Hopefully someone of character and conviction will step up.

19 posted on 08/20/2011 5:55:59 PM PDT by G L Tirebiter
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To: saganite
I hope we can get a first rate candidate.

That's the problem isn't it?I'm a GA voter but spend a lot of time in Macon Co. The Schuler's predecessor was a crook. Hopefully someone of character and conviction will step up.

20 posted on 08/20/2011 5:56:21 PM PDT by G L Tirebiter
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To: Libloather
Lloyd Doggett (Texas)

HA HA HA...use to have all of Travis Cty which is Austin, TX. liberal hole. He barely has any of Travis Cty. He now has a whole bunch of republican counties...

21 posted on 08/20/2011 5:59:34 PM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: Libloather

There are a whole lot more than five vulnerable Dems, a couple dozen who are in very deep trouble politically. In the generic ballot, GOP beats Dems by about 7%. They are going to get stomped into the dust unless unemployment drops below 8% (which is impossible with the socialist in our White House).


22 posted on 08/20/2011 6:53:50 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Libloather

Critz occupies the district that John Murtha had. Gerrymandered beyond belief. I heard, a year and a half ago, that that district might be eliminated. Yay!!! Go away Critz!!


23 posted on 08/20/2011 7:27:51 PM PDT by sneakers (EAT YOUR PEAS!)
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To: shield

Doggett can still run in a district that it includes most of Austin’s liberal neighborhoods, but the CD also takes in many overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in South San Antonio and Doggett would have a much tougher time beating a San Antonio Hispanic Democrat in the primary than he did against that underfunded Hispanic Democrat (her last name was Hinojosa, nonrelation to the congressman, IIRC) from McAllen in 2004 back when his district squirreled south all the way to the Mexican border (when Doggett bought himself plentiful endorsements from Lower Rio Grande Valley Hispanic Democrats). So I think that Doggett will finally be gone.


24 posted on 08/20/2011 7:41:04 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: FreeAtlanta
Skin color, Religion, freakishness or normalness should not play into it.

The Supreme Court believes otherwise.

Majority minority districts were created in response to a SCOTUS dictate.

25 posted on 08/20/2011 7:51:49 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: saganite
Asheville isn’t a college town? You mean somebody stole UNC Asheville?!

. I elieve TPT meant Asheville was a town with a college, not a college town.

Personally, I prefer to think of Asheville as the San Francisco of the Smokies...

26 posted on 08/20/2011 7:53:47 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
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To: FreeAtlanta
Districts should be drawn by a computer and the sole parameters should be driving radius to polling place and necessary population

Math question:

Is there a reason that an algorith could not draw district boundaries to simply minimize the length of the district boundaries, i.e., compact contiguous districts and no gerrymandering possible?

27 posted on 08/20/2011 7:58:38 PM PDT by Castlebar
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To: Castlebar
Is there a reason that an algorith could not draw district boundaries to simply minimize the length of the district boundaries, i.e., compact contiguous districts and no gerrymandering possible?

It is possible and has been done --

But to be legal, the districts would have to comply with the Voting Rights Act and applicable court decisions.

There are also common sense guidelines that may make more sense than strict compactness, such as grouping communities of interest and following existing political boundaries (precinct, town, city, county lines).

28 posted on 08/20/2011 8:41:08 PM PDT by Crichton
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To: Libloather

FIVE????? ONLY FIVE????? Good freaking grief!! It SHOULD be 195!!!!!


29 posted on 08/21/2011 3:00:05 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion is the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: saganite

YMCA doesn’t “dominate” Asheville like, for instance, HVAC dominates Athens, or UF Gainesville in traditional college towns.


30 posted on 08/21/2011 3:33:11 AM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Yes)
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To: okie01

Congress should do their job and impeach several of the justices. Well, at this point it needs to wait until after 2012.

I really wish 20 or 30 year limits would be put on the Justices. Life time appointments for these clowns is insane.


31 posted on 08/21/2011 4:11:00 PM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Fight for Liberty)
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To: Libloather

Bye Bye Peters!


32 posted on 08/26/2011 10:16:31 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (I am not lead by any politician. I am my own leader.)
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