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Hurricane Force Dissonance
Real-Science.com ^ | 8/28/2011 | S Goddard

Posted on 08/28/2011 6:50:28 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat

Yesterday was an interesting day. I presented a very straightforward map from Weather Underground showing that there were no sustained surface winds higher than 33 MPH at Irene’s US landfall.

Hundreds of people went nuts, because the map disagreed with their need to blindly trust authority. They accused me of lying (did I make the map?) They accused Weather Underground of bogus maps (Jeff Masters the denier.) They came up with every reason to not believe the Emperor was NOAAked.

Incidents like this help me to understand the roots of historical disastrous human behaviour. Many people will blindly trust authority – rather than thinking for themselves or believing what they see with their own eyes.

(Excerpt) Read more at real-science.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: authority; blindallegiance; irene; noaa
Goddard then follows with Patrick Henry's speech ending with "give me liberty or give me death."

He certainly chooses, like many conservatives, to not bow his knee to the authorities.

I am beginning to believe NOAA and the NHC "kept" this a hurricane for reasons not completely meteorological.

1 posted on 08/28/2011 6:50:31 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: Recovering_Democrat

“I am beginning to believe NOAA and the NHC “kept” this a hurricane for reasons not completely meteorological.”

I suspect that you are correct, this was a political calculation.

My daughter lives at the Jersey Shore. She didn’t have nearly the damage that we in Northern Jersey are experiencing.


2 posted on 08/28/2011 7:01:12 PM PDT by alice_in_bubbaland (DeMint /Palin, DeMint/Bachmann, DeMint/Cain, DeMint/Ryan 2012!!!!!!!)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
I found it interesting that Bloomberg ordered people to evacuate in NYC and was largely ignored. That seemed to frustrate and annoy him. I have two points to make on that:

1) In a truly dangerous situation, people who ignore good advice can die. Hurricanes should not be taken lightly.

2) The People in this country seem to be telling their government to shove it. We don't trust them. We don't think their advice is good. We don't believe their statistics, their facts, or their figures. We don't want to follow the politicians anymore, because we know that the politicians are gaming us.

3 posted on 08/28/2011 7:05:40 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The USSR spent itself into bankruptcy and collapsed -- and aren't we on the same path now?)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

I am ex navy. I know what a 50 kt plus wind feels like. In Richmond we had at least that - gusting. Sustained winds were probably 30 kts. One of my huge oak tress bit the dust. It takes a lot of wind to knock down a healthy oak. We were 100 miles from the eye so it was fairly windy. It was probably a 1, with the mercury at 28.03”.


4 posted on 08/28/2011 7:06:41 PM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

I can assure you that the wins that ripped the siding off my neighbors house and dumped two trees on my friend’s roof were more than 33MPH.


5 posted on 08/28/2011 7:12:43 PM PDT by USMCWife6869
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To: Recovering_Democrat
As a survivor of Camille, Katrina, and a hundred less remembered storms...I couldn't agree more.

Are Hurricanes dangerous? Yes, they are, and we should listen to what the “officials” have to say, and THEN see with your own eyes, understand with your own mind.

Just cause they say “everything points to THIS!” Doesn't always mean they are right.

NOAA in my home state is often called No DUH!

When EVERYTHING is “Major”, “Dangerous”, “Unlike anything we've ever seen”...the people after awhile will remember only the sensationalism, and not leave when something that IS Major, Dangerous, and unlike anything we've ever seen, comes around, and THAT'S what will get people killed.

Thanks for having the courage to tell the TRUTH. Never stop that, never.

6 posted on 08/28/2011 7:14:42 PM PDT by Shadowstrike (Be polite, Be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

How do we know Weather Underground has the “right” data?


7 posted on 08/28/2011 7:15:05 PM PDT by RockinRight (The ObamAA+ Downgrade)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

It was a big storm system, but a real hurricane?

It sounds more like an event to try sheeple control by Home Land Security flacks and Bloomie.

Didn’t go as planned, look for another “event” to make the subjects submit to authority.


8 posted on 08/28/2011 7:15:16 PM PDT by wrench
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To: Recovering_Democrat

This dude took the airport readings from the areas in and around Irene’s trip..same ‘anomalies’:

http://rightwingnews.com/uncategorized/irene-makes-second-landfall-in-little-egg-inlet-nj/


9 posted on 08/28/2011 7:16:34 PM PDT by penelopesire (Let The Congressional Hearings Begin!)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

“Yesterday was an interesting day. I presented a very straightforward map from Weather Underground showing that there were no sustained surface winds higher than 33 MPH at Irene’s US landfall.”

Complete BS.


10 posted on 08/28/2011 7:17:40 PM PDT by Rebelbase (Disgusted with the establishment GOP and their enablers.)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

11 posted on 08/28/2011 7:20:10 PM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: USMCWife6869

You could have had a big gust or a small spin off tornado. The area was also saturated from previous storms the weeks leading up to this storm. That can bring a tree down with little wind. Siding can come off in sustained tropical force winds as well.

What people are saying is that the system did not qualify as a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph. Just go read the links. It is pretty interesting.


12 posted on 08/28/2011 7:22:55 PM PDT by penelopesire (Let The Congressional Hearings Begin!)
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To: Rebelbase

The Weather Channel, Hussein worshippers owned by NBC/Comcast, send their “journalists” to places they think are going to be hit hardest.

Did you see the video of the streaker behind one of their guys? We saw nothing but wind, and the guy’s butt and sausage in that video. Nothing terrifying about the weather there.

Of COURSE there were some isolated packs of wind gusts...or maybe a bit of tornadic activity.

I posted several pics, and even started a whole thread last night, using Times Square “earth cams”...people were milling about, just living life.

Irene was hyped. You can blame the government, the media, or both...sometimes I think the government and the lefttard media are one in the same. The “news” organizations at ABC, CBS, and NBC worship Hussein. If his government makes a statement, they’ll amplify it. Same with CNN.


13 posted on 08/28/2011 7:43:23 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: Rebelbase

You do understand the difference between wind gusts and sustained winds, right?

Go to the guy’s webpage and actually look at his screen shots. Sure, there were gusts that were well above the 33 mph he cites, but the sustained (constant for those in Rio Linda) speeds were far lower than needed to even be considered a tropical storm, let alone a hurricane. He captured screenshots from several airports, including many that show NOAA recordings as well.

It was a major rain event in an area that was already waterlogged from previous rainstorms, not a hurricane. That’s why the damage is all flooding, not torn-off roofs and branches.


14 posted on 08/28/2011 7:47:05 PM PDT by Don W (You can forget what you do for a living when your knees are in the breeze.)
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To: Rebelbase

“Yesterday was an interesting day. I presented a very straightforward map from Weather Underground showing that there were no sustained surface winds higher than 33 MPH at Irene’s US landfall.”


Complete BS.


So, what’s the BS? I went to the same WeatherUnderground site and saw the same thing.

When Irene was shown as 10 miles offshore of Virginia Beach, the windspeed showed less than 30 mph for the next hour.

This site also shows similar wind speeds during Irene.

http://rightwingnews.com/uncategorized/irene-makes-second-landfall-in-little-egg-inlet-nj/

I even made a post asking the same questions in a post here.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2769816/posts

So where’s the BS?


15 posted on 08/28/2011 7:48:39 PM PDT by chaosagent (Remember, no matter how you slice it, forbidden fruit still tastes the sweetest!)
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To: penelopesire

If you look at the NOAA buoy data, you will be hard pressed to find wind speeds along Irene’s track that are over 50 knots. Click on a buoy, then go to map the data and click the wind speed results.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml


16 posted on 08/28/2011 7:49:35 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter Hobbit)
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To: penelopesire

I have seen similar phenomena in other hurricanes, where none of the official reports show winds as high as the category of hurricane would suggest.

IMO, its because even a “sustained” wind only has to last 60 seconds to,count IIRC. A weather observation is done hourly, so its quite possible that the winds at that point in time weren’t at the max.


17 posted on 08/28/2011 7:53:56 PM PDT by RockinRight (The ObamAA+ Downgrade)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

Wonder if you would repost a picture . I was watching that cam,but I don’t know how to get a picture .People were walking with umbrellas.And I can’t locat the threads where you posted them.


18 posted on 08/28/2011 8:06:36 PM PDT by silentreignofheroes
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To: Recovering_Democrat

conspiracy idiocy, still idiocy when the Right does it.


19 posted on 08/28/2011 8:13:47 PM PDT by Paradox (Obnoxious, Bumbling, Absurd, Maladroit, Assinine)
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To: RockinRight

Your analytical approach is kind of backward.

If the problem were a few measurements that didn’t agree with the others - samplig rate and methods could of course be suspect.

The problem here is - it is only the rare data that SUPPORTS the Hurricane status.

You shouldn’t have to data comb a bunch of 30 mph data sets to find a 75mph event.
It is easily checked - look at data sets from previous real Hurricanes.


20 posted on 08/28/2011 8:34:47 PM PDT by Eldon Tyrell
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To: Recovering_Democrat

The supposed wind speeds were not ground wind speeds, but actually at a few thousand feet.

Not what you’d expect of a guardian of knowledge for the “we the people”?


21 posted on 08/28/2011 8:36:38 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: Recovering_Democrat
The most harsh winds occur to the NE and east of a hurricane which was mostly off shore.
22 posted on 08/28/2011 8:39:25 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: Recovering_Democrat
My son, in Virginia, did not see 85 mph winds, but rather, maybe 50 ish winds. That would be Portsmouth, VA.

Almost in the track.

23 posted on 08/28/2011 8:43:11 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: Recovering_Democrat

I don’t quite understand all of this anger/disgust/paranoia over the reporting of this storm.

I live on the Gulf Coast & have experienced hurricanes for 50+ years. I have had 75+ mph winds in my face many times.

I realize the weather people & politicians get all wet & creamy when a storm comes, but I’m damn glad for the warnings. I realize they are “predicting” on the extreme side of caution. But I’d much rather be prepared for a massive storm, only to see it fizzle out or turn away, than be ill prepared for a 3 week nightmare such as Frederick in 1979.

Three weeks with no power, & water unfit to drink. Roads impassable. Stores & banks closed. Dusk to dawn Curfew. Nothing but a radio endlessly replaying “Don’t worry, be happy”. Six inches of river mud in my house, roof mostly gone, & roofing nails/shingles/boards everywhere. At night, it looked like North Korea - dark. Streets crosshatched with trees & power poles. We had to cut our way out with chainsaws. Fifty + miles to the nearest open store or gas station, with long lines at both - if you could get there. This went on for weeks.

Frederick was reportedly 125 mph winds. At one point it was “reported” Irene was at 120 mph. There is absolutely no meteorologist on Earth that can predict with any certainty the wind speed & direction of a storm beyond a few hours. Storms can rapidly intensify & weaken.

I believe it would have been irresponsible to minimize the danger of Irene to the (mostly ignorant) public. A few miles or a few MPH could have made this storm a major killer. NY just got lucky.

When a Gulf storm misses us or fizzles out, we consider ourselves fortunate. Yeah, we grumble a little about the weatherman monopolizing the TV & all the junk food we bought, but I wouldn’t want to return to the old days of a radio, map, & pencil, with too little info rather than too much.

I’m just thankful that somebody who knows more than I is giving us their estimation of coming danger. If they err on the side of caution, I completely understand that & approve. Some folks, you know, need more convincing than others.

With hurricanes, plan for the worst & accept anything less gladly. When the bad one comes you MIGHT survive.


24 posted on 08/28/2011 8:49:37 PM PDT by Mister Da (The mark of a wise man is not what he knows, but what he knows he doesn't know!)
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To: Mister Da
Born in Mobile, and raised in Prichard (Alabama Village, when it was a decent place to live)

Yeah, let's talk about Fred...How it was NOT hyped, how we received ACCURATE reports, and not some a** with a microphone who wanted his 10 minutes of fame leaning into nonexistent wind.

We had WEATHER men, and women then. NOT actors.

25 posted on 08/28/2011 9:08:28 PM PDT by Shadowstrike (Be polite, Be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: Mister Da
Born in Mobile, and raised in Prichard (Alabama Village, when it was a decent place to live)

Yeah, let's talk about Fred...How it was NOT hyped, how we received ACCURATE reports, and not some a** with a microphone who wanted his 10 minutes of fame leaning into nonexistent wind.

We had WEATHER men, and women then. NOT actors.

26 posted on 08/28/2011 9:10:14 PM PDT by Shadowstrike (Be polite, Be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

That’s because nobody likes Bloomberg.


27 posted on 08/28/2011 9:37:24 PM PDT by wastedyears (Of course you realize, this means war.)
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To: wrench

Odumbo sure milked it like a prize cow. (He was sooo much in charge)


28 posted on 08/28/2011 9:47:17 PM PDT by pankot
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To: Recovering_Democrat

Irene was a hurricane, simple enough.

The problem I have right now, is that dismissing it in the media and on the internet will lead to future problems and loss of life.

The next hurricane that comes along, where people are asked to evacuate...will be met with skepticism. There WILL be people who stay behind because there were told that Irene was not a hurricane after the fact. This is a dangerous scenario.

So instead of everyone either downplaying Irene or sticking to the official story...we instead need to raise awareness for the next one, keep everyone toeing the line.

Do people in Oklahoma ignore a tornado because it’s just an F1?

(Survived Hugo and numerous others, so I know what I’m talking about)


29 posted on 08/28/2011 10:17:10 PM PDT by BrianInNC
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To: Puckster

No, you’re quite wrong about that. The sustained wind speeds reported by NOAA in their bulletins are for winds at the surface, not thousands of feet up. The buoys, ships, and ground stations measure what is happening at the surface.


30 posted on 08/28/2011 10:20:29 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter Hobbit)
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To: RockinRight

“IMO, its because even a “sustained” wind only has to last 60 seconds to,count IIRC.”

That’s an important bit of knowledge to add to this discussion for sure. I wonder how long these observation units that are on the ground clock the speed? That would be an important bit of info as well.

What this whole discussion really shows is that many people have lost trust in our government,science and the media in this country for good reason. THEY LIE! It’s perfectly natural to begin to question everything that they do when they have lost so much credibility. It isn’t ‘conspiracy theory’ at this point....it is ‘vetting’ things that need to be vetted.

How long can our institutions of authority expect to be trusted when they have been caught in lie after lie after lie?


31 posted on 08/29/2011 6:35:54 AM PDT by penelopesire (Let The Congressional Hearings Begin!)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

The only conspiracy here is the Media conspiring to get higher ratings. Sure they’ll bend the truth for money, they’re liberals after all. When a truly dangerous storm comes along, and people don’t listen to them and thousands die, well, that’s just big ratings for a few more days. They call that a win-win.


32 posted on 08/29/2011 6:43:42 AM PDT by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: Kirkwood
The basis of what I had inferred, given the website link, was that there appeared to be a disconnect between observed wind speeds on the ground, including my sons house very near the the centers wall at Portsmouth, VA and NOAA’s stated wind speeds. And yes, in the absence of enough data from ground or sea sources, they will extrapolate ground wind speeds from known wind speeds higher in the atmosphere.
33 posted on 08/29/2011 10:01:00 AM PDT by Puckster
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To: pankot

The Left has made the weather, and in particular, hurricanes into an explosive political issue. Liberals exaggerate and outright lie about the weather to move the public to their point of view and power in fear.

This manipulative display of hype was to:

Provide a favorable comparison of Dear Reader in Irene at the FEMA command center to Bush in Katrina even though the two storms were not similar.

To show that hurricanes are caused by man made global warming, which was repeated over and over again in order to connect the fear of the hurricane hype to Algore’s watermelon and carbon investment agenda.

To qualify for disaster funds from FEMA. Had the storm been classified as a tropical storm (which it was), Obammy could not spread around Fema’s disaster funds (walking around money for infrastructure re-building) to PA, NY and NJ political supporters. His FEMA improperly ordered expensive evacuations of residents and even nursing homes and has to keep up the ruse of a disaster level, dangerous hurricane in order to justify their orders and pay the cities for the costs they incurred by following FEMA’s disaster orders. Evacuations are hugely expensive to individuals and to the cities and states. Real hurricanes can cause damage to bridges, government buildings, beaches, roads, sewer and water systems. So, since this was improperly classified as a hurricane disaster, Bloomberg can blame any infrastructure spending he desires on damage caused by the hurricane’s wind and flooding.

Politizing the weather is dangerous. If the public does not believe the hurricane data and reports out of NOAA on Teee Veee, they will end up in another Katrina where idiots don’t evacuate. Personally, we evacuate when our own research points to evacuation. All the data is available on the internet or, in our case, through our work.

People don’t evacuate for tropical storms even though these storms can cause minor wind damage and flooding and they can also spin off tornados. Although people can die from a tropical storm (a tree falling on them or a tornado hitting their house), they are not deadly enough to evacuate the areas. This damage is handled between property owners, cities, States and insurance companies. FEMA evacuation and “disaster” is for the deadly winds and water surges of a powerful hurricane in order to protect human life. But no more.


34 posted on 08/29/2011 10:10:39 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Puckster
Yes, NOAA also uses models based on dropsonde data from aircraf, and not just surface data. I think this was an unusual storm with high speed winds aloft, but tropical storm winds near the ground. I've seen this reported elsewhere. Anyway, something may have gone kaflooey in the model because the NOAA statements were reporting wind speeds with a 50 to 100% higher velocity than what they should have been. The gust speeds were somewhat closer to what they were reporting for sustained speeds, but even those were lower. I don't think it was a “conspiracy”, but just something odd about the conditions in the storm itself. I'm sure somewhere some meteorologists are scratching their heads over this.
35 posted on 08/29/2011 12:34:46 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter Hobbit)
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To: Kirkwood

Hurricanes die pretty quickly when they hit land. Irene lost strength in open water before she started hitting land and continued to lose strength as she ground up the coast. That she moved up the coast for so many miles as opposed to moving directly onto land seems to me to have made a big difference.


36 posted on 08/29/2011 12:54:41 PM PDT by IamConservative (Why has Bear Gryllis never tried to hike out of Detroit?)
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To: Kirkwood

I agree, however, maybe not conspiracy, but, how about an ingrained bias towards global warming and potential funding increases or decreases.

It has affected many science disciplines in quite a frustrating way.

What would be interesting and noteworthy is if there is a highly conservative president and both houses of legislation.....will there be better wx reporting on down the road.


37 posted on 08/29/2011 2:35:51 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: IamConservative
Hurricanes die pretty quickly when they hit land. Irene lost strength in open water before she started hitting land and continued to lose strength as she ground up the coast.

And yet the NHC still claimed sustained winds of 85 mph when it made landfall in NY.

38 posted on 08/29/2011 2:45:28 PM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their President is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: Fresh Wind

Bookmark


39 posted on 08/29/2011 5:44:12 PM PDT by Publius6961 (My world was lovely, until it was taken over by parasites.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
We don't want to follow the politicians anymore, because we know that the politicians are gaming us.

You're giving them way too much credit. That implies an informed conscious plan.

These "leaders" act out of ignorance and, when wrong, they can always claim to have averted a bigger problem by their actions*.

The reality is, when it comes to things technical or scientific, they haven't a clue, and any self serving group can point them in any direction.

They are functional morons.

* Sound familiar?

40 posted on 08/29/2011 5:54:34 PM PDT by Publius6961 (My world was lovely, until it was taken over by parasites.)
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To: SaraJohnson

I could not agree more. Your summary was well put.


41 posted on 08/29/2011 6:45:29 PM PDT by pankot
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To: IamConservative

Hurricanes die pretty quickly when they hit land.


That is true. But I remember Ike! After hitting Galveston at Category 4 and leveling all towns around Galveston and most of Galveston, the storm moved down the highway flooding and blowing everything all the way in a strip to Houston and then kept up it’s tropical storm thing flooding and blowing all the way to Dallas!

That was unbelievable. I honestly felt something exceedingly evil had traveled through the area. It was spooky for a long time afterward for me. People were in a fog for a while and so many lost so much.


42 posted on 08/29/2011 7:58:23 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Kirkwood

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/29/quote-of-the-week-hype-and-hurricane-force-winds/#more-46246

There are a host of others that seem to think that Irene was not a hurricane at landfall.

Also, note the wind speeds that are supposed to be taken at 10 meters above terrain.

Thought you’d like to know.


43 posted on 08/30/2011 6:22:05 AM PDT by Puckster
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To: Recovering_Democrat

pingers for laters


44 posted on 08/30/2011 2:53:08 PM PDT by prisoner6 (Right Wing Nuts bolt The Constitution together as the loose screws of the Left fall out!)
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