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Tropical Storm Lee [interests in Louisiana need to check the rainfall forecasts]
NHC/NOAA ^ | 1 September 2011 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/01/2011 4:54:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Depression Thirteen has developed in the Gulf of Mexico.


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TOPICS: Extended News; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: depression; tropical
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Should be a big rainmaker. Sincerely hoping TX will benefit from this system.
1 posted on 09/01/2011 4:54:39 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
Wishing Texas well!!!!

Or rather.....wish I had a well in Texas!!!!

2 posted on 09/01/2011 4:56:36 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: NautiNurse

Also keep your eye on on-again-off-agin-was-H1-now-TS Katia. Hope Katia doesn’t gottcha.


3 posted on 09/01/2011 4:57:54 PM PDT by PapaNew
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Depression 13 in Gulf of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the
northern Gulf of Mexico from Pascagoula Mississippi westward
to Sabine Pass Texas.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

4 posted on 09/01/2011 4:57:59 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: NautiNurse

the focus will be on new orleans


5 posted on 09/01/2011 4:58:03 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you, NN.

All my Texas relatives are praying for rain.


6 posted on 09/01/2011 4:58:54 PM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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To: NautiNurse

You have A LOT of folks on the Face Book Free Republic page looking for you. I think you would be surprise at the group that has collected over there


7 posted on 09/01/2011 4:59:00 PM PDT by ThreePuttinDude (o)..(o)
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To: ThreePuttinDude

LOL—will have to check it out!


8 posted on 09/01/2011 5:00:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: NautiNurse

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/09/gov_jindal_calls_state_of_emer.html
Gov. Jindal calls state of emergency as tropical depression spins in Gulf

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2011/09/st_bernard_officials_get_ready.html
St. Bernard officials get ready for tropical weather system


9 posted on 09/01/2011 5:01:03 PM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: NautiNurse
Tropical Depression

Is that like, wasting away again in Margaretaville?

10 posted on 09/01/2011 5:03:08 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER ( Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: NautiNurse

Turn west! Turn west!


11 posted on 09/01/2011 5:05:26 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: abb

Thanks for the Louisiana emergency info. The rain forecast is surely ominous.


12 posted on 09/01/2011 5:06:13 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: PAR35

Should we pray for a nice-sized hurricane to hit Texas? If so, I crank up the prayer machine for ya! LOL!


13 posted on 09/01/2011 5:07:08 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks for the Louisiana emergency info. The rain forecast is surely ominous

I follow the forecasts from the Hydrometerological Forecast Center closely, as my office is near a river which is prone to flood. I have never seen 24" plus of rain forecast on one of their maps before. If this forecast verifies, it will cause Katrina-like damage in New Orleans.

14 posted on 09/01/2011 5:12:39 PM PDT by TonyInOhio ( ~ No ~)
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To: NautiNurse

Looks like we will be on the dry side.


15 posted on 09/01/2011 5:15:35 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open ( <o> ---)
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To: NautiNurse

Wow that’s kinda’ weird, ‘Friday the Thirteen(th).’

They sure need the rain though in many parts of TX.


16 posted on 09/01/2011 5:18:01 PM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Wow...what a swath of 15 inch rain. I guess NOLA pumps will hold up, but the burbs are really gonna get hammered. According to the graphic my little spot in Texas is only going to get about an inch. That’s disppointiong. Maybe the storm will inch a little farther west.


17 posted on 09/01/2011 5:22:15 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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To: TonyInOhio

I am gonna have a cloudy day! WOO-HOOO!


18 posted on 09/01/2011 5:22:58 PM PDT by waterhill (Little 'r' republican:)
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To: NautiNurse

I saw this one brewing on Monday.


19 posted on 09/01/2011 5:25:00 PM PDT by Dacula (When life gives you lemons, make apple juice and have people wonder how the hell you did it.)
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To: NautiNurse

Go LEFT, young depression! Go LEFT!


20 posted on 09/01/2011 5:25:09 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: TonyInOhio

Another two inches of rain over the next week is unlikely to do Vermont much good either.

Wishes for this depression to head for Dallas, it would probably help the fire situation in the area.


21 posted on 09/01/2011 5:46:31 PM PDT by Fraxinus (My opinion, worth what you paid.)
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To: TonyInOhio
We had that kind of rain when Ike came up the Mississippi and hit like, well, a hurricane. The system here couldn't handle it.

Everybody is unbelievably dry this year. I know it's bad in Texas, but it's bad everywhere. This storm could be a real boon for everyone.

22 posted on 09/01/2011 5:57:09 PM PDT by Desdemona ( If trusting the men in the clergy was a requirement for Faith, there would be no one in the pews.)
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To: Desdemona
Ike came up the Mississippi

Sure you didn't mean an different storm? Ike wrecked havoc from my neck of the woods in Texas.

23 posted on 09/01/2011 6:01:15 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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To: catfish1957; Desdemona

Ike came up the Mississippi.”

I know Texas is big, but running it all the way to the MIssissippi is stretching it just a bit. I do know it came up the Chocolate Bayou and Hickory Slough though.


24 posted on 09/01/2011 6:17:14 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Grams A
Yeah I was quoting another poster (Desmedona). I don't think Ike impacted the Mississippi River significantly.

As far as this little storm, I hope no one forgets Humberto from '07.

I turned off the evening news that day with a TD, and woke up the next morning with a hurricane.

25 posted on 09/01/2011 6:25:27 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: NautiNurse

Given the rainfall forecast in post 14, this thread has been promoted to the Extended sidebar and a mod note has been added to the headline, if that changes I will modify the headline.


27 posted on 09/01/2011 6:27:57 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: Admin Moderator

Thank you!


28 posted on 09/01/2011 6:30:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: TonyInOhio; blam

Looks like my Southern Alabama is going to get just enough...

Blam, you’re down South of Mobile—better get the canoe out, just in case!


29 posted on 09/01/2011 6:36:43 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: NautiNurse

Hey, how do they figure landfall Sat night??? None of the models are forecasting that to happen!


30 posted on 09/01/2011 6:39:49 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: NautiNurse

All the models prety much agree on a stall just off the coast!


31 posted on 09/01/2011 6:41:27 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker; All

From ths NWS< Please read IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. THIS WILL BE A SLOW EVOLVING
AND EVEN SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST RISK BEING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE WIND THREAT
IS NOT AS GREAT BUT THIS COULD BECOME A LARGER ISSUE IF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13 INCREASES IN STRENGTH.


32 posted on 09/01/2011 6:47:11 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: Alas Babylon!
"Blam, you’re down South of Mobile—better get the canoe out, just in case!"

Check.

Thanks for the heads up. I need some rain.

33 posted on 09/01/2011 6:47:36 PM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Please, please, please! Send this thing the way of Texas and Oklahoma! Not a lot of wind, please, but lots of rain!


34 posted on 09/01/2011 6:48:09 PM PDT by Bushbacker1 (I miss President Bush greatly! Palin in 2012! 2012 - The End Of An Error! (Oathkeeper))
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To: NautiNurse
Texas needs some rain for sure. Currently there are 251 of the 254 counties in Texas under a burn ban. There have been over 3,500,000 acres or over 5,500 sq miles burned so far during this drought.

For comparison here are some state sizes in sq miles:
Connecticut ....   5,544  
Delaware ........  2,489  
Rhode Island ...   1,545  

35 posted on 09/01/2011 6:53:12 PM PDT by deport
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To: eastforker
The initial discussion indicates motion is highly uncertain with weak steering currents for 2-3 days. The discussion also notes the center of circulation could re-form within the next 12-24 hours. The models look like something my cat coughed up. Let's see what the 11PM update offers.

p.s. We are all hoping TX benefits from the system.

36 posted on 09/01/2011 6:56:17 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: deport
TD 13 Graphic via StormPulse


37 posted on 09/01/2011 6:58:11 PM PDT by deport
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To: NautiNurse

I know, you know how they are on the first advisories.I just hope people are vigilant and watch to see what this storm might do.Talk of NOLA flooding with 20 inches of rain. A possible loop de loop and a double whammy and on top of all that, a left detour by Katia.


38 posted on 09/01/2011 7:16:08 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: NautiNurse

With the fires, New Orleans could use some rain as well.


39 posted on 09/01/2011 7:18:16 PM PDT by Ingtar (Together we go broke (from a Pookie18 post))
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To: Ingtar

The NAM @ 42 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110902/00/nam_wnatl_042_10m_wnd_precip.gif


40 posted on 09/01/2011 7:23:13 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

The NAM @ 48 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110902/00/nam_wnatl_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif


41 posted on 09/01/2011 7:25:30 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

The NAM @ 57 Hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110902/00/nam_wnatl_057_10m_wnd_precip.gif


42 posted on 09/01/2011 7:32:02 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

The NAM @ 60 Hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110902/00/nam_wnatl_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif


43 posted on 09/01/2011 7:35:30 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

According to this run on the NAM, NOLA will get pounded with rain and storms for 18 hours or mor straight. I hope their new pumps are working!


44 posted on 09/01/2011 7:38:03 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY...EXPECTED TO DRENCH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


45 posted on 09/01/2011 7:44:48 PM PDT by eastforker
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To: eastforker

Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 01, 2011

...Tropical depression moving very slowly...expected to drench
portions of the northern Gulf Coast...

summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information


location...26.6n 91.5w
about 225 mi...365 km SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River
about 270 mi...435 km SSE of Port Arthur Texas
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/h
minimum central pressure...1007 mb...29.74 inches

watches and warnings


changes with this advisory...

none

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pascagoula Mississippi westward to Sabine Pass Texas...including
the city of New Orleans...Lake Pontchartrain...and Lake Maurepas


46 posted on 09/01/2011 7:51:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: eastforker
Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 01, 2011

 
Although the overall satellite presentation of the depression has
changed little this evening...new bands of deep convection have
developed to the southeast of the center.  Satellite
classifications and recent buoy observations support keeping the
initial intensity at 30 kt.  A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the cyclone overnight.  A shear analysis
from UW-CIMSS shows about 20 kt of westerly shear over the
cyclone.  This shear is forecast to relax during the next 12-24
hours as an upper-level anticyclone builds over the Gulf.  This is
expected to result in a favorable environment for intensification.
However...given the large size of the circulation...strengthening 
is expected to be gradual.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
nearly identical to the previous advisory and is a blend of the
SHIPS/lgem guidance.

The depression has not moved much this evening...and the highly
uncertain initial motion is 315/2 kt.   Since the depression is
still in the formative stage...the center could reform within the
large circulation during the next 12-24 hours.  This possibility 
is supported by the GFS...which shows the center reforming farther
north within 24 hours.  Steering currents are expected to remain
weak during the next several days as the depression remains to the
south of a weakening mid/upper level ridge.  As the ridge slides
eastward...it should allow the cyclone to move slowly northward...
then northeastward.  Although the dynamical models shows little
overall motion during the next 2-3 days...there is a large spread
in the guidance and lower than normal confidence in the track
forecast.  The updated NHC track is a little slower and east of 
the previous forecast.

 

 
Forecast positions and Max winds

 
init  02/0300z 26.6n  91.5w   30 kt  35 mph
 12h  02/1200z 27.5n  92.2w   35 kt  40 mph
 24h  03/0000z 28.0n  92.4w   40 kt  45 mph
 36h  03/1200z 28.6n  92.4w   45 kt  50 mph
 48h  04/0000z 29.2n  92.3w   50 kt  60 mph
 72h  05/0000z 29.7n  92.1w   50 kt  60 mph...near the coast
 96h  06/0000z 30.5n  91.5w   35 kt  40 mph...inland
120h  07/0000z 31.5n  90.0w   25 kt  30 mph...inland

47 posted on 09/01/2011 7:54:54 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Drink good coffee. You can sleep when you are dead.)
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To: catfish1957
Ike came up the Mississippi

Sure you didn't mean an different storm? Ike wrecked havoc from my neck of the woods in Texas.

maybe it came from that direction, but it was Ike. One of the big open storm drains flooded badly enough that several houses were bought out by FEMA. We're set up for some pretty heavy rain that we get in the spring which just dumps into the Missouri, the Meramec and the Mississippi eventually, but that storm overwhelmed the system.

48 posted on 09/01/2011 8:00:51 PM PDT by Desdemona ( If trusting the men in the clergy was a requirement for Faith, there would be no one in the pews.)
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To: NautiNurse

I like the path of that rain. Let it be so!


49 posted on 09/01/2011 8:23:06 PM PDT by Jemian
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To: eastforker

GFS, 69 Hours, @ LA coast dumping rain on East Texas.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110902/00/gfs_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif


50 posted on 09/01/2011 9:15:16 PM PDT by eastforker
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