Skip to comments.Rising Fears of Recession (Odds of a Double Dip Nears 50%)
Posted on 09/08/2011 10:54:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If history is a guide, the odds that the American economy is falling into a double-dip recession have risen sharply in recent weeks and may even have reached 50 percent.
Economies have a strong self-reinforcing nature. When people are optimistic, they spend, which begets hiring and then more spending. When people are anxious, they pull back, which leads to a cycle of hiring freezes and further anxiety that often lasts for months.
The United States appears to have entered some version of the vicious cycle. Most ominously, job growth has slowed to a pace that typically signals the start of a recession.
Over the last 50 years, every time that job growth has been as meager as it has been over the last four months, the economy has been headed toward recession, in a recession or in the immediate aftermath of one. From early 2010 through this spring, by contrast, employment was growing fast enough to make the economy look as if it were in a recovery, albeit a modest one.
The chances that we are in something that is going to feel like a recession are close to 100 percent, said Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc. in New York, who has diagnosed the economy more accurately than many other forecasters lately. Whether we reach the technical definition which is determined by a committee of academic economists and based on gross domestic product, employment and other factors I think is probably close to 50-50.
A double dip would present obvious political problems for President Obama, whose approval ratings have already fallen below 50 percent and who is scheduled to give a speech to Congress on Thursday outlining a new jobs plan. A weak economy also could threaten incumbents of both parties in Congress,
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
OK folks, I know that there will be posters who will insist that we never left the recession. But please, let’s stick to the official definition :
A Period of Economic Decline, Typically defined as a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.
Therefore the MSM MUST try to construct a “recovery” before Nov. 2011.
If a Republican was President, the Times would be calling this “The (fill in the blank) Depression.” But instead they will find a way to call it “The Obama Recovery”.
The recession is the least of our problems:
Subject: Video FOX NEWS has been trying to air
This is supposedly the video that FOX NEWS has been trying to air that is constantly blocked by the administration. Watch this quickly before it gets pulled. It is a series of video clips with virtually no commentary. http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=tCAffMSWSzY#t=28
Yes, the worst thing about a recession is the political pain it would inflict on barry obama
I can’t get on Youtube at work. Can you write a synopsis? I’m really curious.
Why are economists always the last to figure these things out.
many mini clips of obama and his muslim faith, obama quotin’ the holy ko’dan, obama sucking up to the great muslim nations and their great faith that brought so many great things to the world,
yada yada yada as Seinfeld would aay
nothing to do with the recession at hand
It’s a video of some very interesting speeches. Don’t you have a computer at home? By the way, does the boss know you are on FR on his time? :o)
aside from the flowery greeting speeches to the Iranian people, after his election, the “great nation of Iran” diplomat’s back channels were revealed making rasist comments about obama being a monkey or something similar
I can hardly wait to get rid of this radical! 2012 can’t come soon enough.
LOL! Yep, boss knows. :) He’s as anxious to get rid of the big O as I am.
We are in a depression with manipulated numbers and they want to talk about only a potential recession?
The definition isn’t the issue, its the accounting. Deficit spending is counted as GDP.
GOOD. tHEN W SHOULD ALL COPY AND PASTE TO EVERYONE ON OUR EMAIL CONTACGT LISTS.
I can live with the "rule" that defines a recession, but what I don't like is when the play with the "facts" that determine whether GDP is really growing. They have messed up the numbers, which is why we never left the recession, by standards of earlier decades.