Skip to comments.Poll: Republicans On Verge Of Shocking NYC Upset
Posted on 09/09/2011 7:10:13 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.
Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.
Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.
The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.
But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.
Turner's own internal polling last week had shown a tie, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee touted a poll showing Weprin with an 8-point lead. But clearly the DCCC has seen that tenuous sign of hope evaporate too, going up yesterday with a half-million-dollar ad-buy slamming Turner in the closing days of the race.
All of the late money may not have much of an impact, however. According to the Siena poll, 79 percent of likely voters say there is no chance they will change their mind, and 17 percent say they are unlikely to change their mind, leaving just 5 percent who say they are "not very certain" or "not certain at all" in their vote.
Voters have a more positive view of Turner than they do of Weprin. Turner's favorable/unfavorable ratings are in the black (48 percent favorable/34 percent unfavorable), while voters are split evenly on Weprin (41 percent favorable/41 percent unfavorable).
Voters believe Turner is running the more positive campaign, leading Weprin on that question, 43 percent to 32 percent. Correspondingly, a plurality of likely voters believe Weprin's campaign is more negative.
Likely voters in the district are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 74 percent saying the country is headed in the wrong direction; Turner wins a striking 94 percent of those voters. Mood toward the direction of New York is much rosier, though -- a 47-percent plurality say the Empire State is on the right track.
The economy remains voters' top concern, with 32 percent listing it as the most important factor in making their decision, including nearly half of Turner's supporters. But there is a possible beacon for Weprin: Medicare and Social Security isn't far behind at just 28 percent, and that's been the focus of late, with Democrats falling back to their successful strategy that helped win them a GOP seat in the western New York's 26th District this May.
Nearly half of Weprin's supporters say the candidates' positions on entitlements is driving their vote. But the poll shows that strategy has its limitations: Turner actually has a four-point lead among voters aged 55 and older, 49 percent to 45 percent.
The historical Democratic dominance in the district is evident in one area, however: By a 49-to-38 percent margin, likely voters think Weprin is most likely to win the election, including 23 percent of Turner's supporters.
The Siena poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 and surveyed 886 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.
It looks good, until the fraud kicks in.
WOW! This is fantastic! Hope you can pull it off. Every little victory like this is another brick in the wall! :)
I am gobsmacked. Dogs and cats, sleeping together. What hath Weiner wrought.
Agreed. I really hate to be a cynic and it would be great if Turner won, but I am not getting my hopes up over this. The Dems have the machine in this district and the GOP has absolutely nothing.
Wait for the actual election before getting hopes up.
Great news out of New York; the GOP is poised to take Weiner’s House seat on Tuesday. It looks like we will win both congressional special elections on Tuesday (the one in Nevada is pretty much a sure thing given the huge GOP turnout among early voters).
I doubt, this is to scare democrats and make them vote plus Union will kick in.
The NYC Dem machine is just as nasty as the Chicago or Philadelphia machine. They will employ resources from all over NY and NJ to make sure the Dem wins.
Yup. Plus they didn't poll the dead vote, the felon vote, the illegal vote, the dead vote (again -- the dead have nothing else to do, so they vote early and often), the NBP intimidation, and the general election fraud, all of which the demscum bring to the table...
Of course, this is likely voters. The Dems will be getting out the unlikely voters like those living under headstones.
It is also the kind of district where the voters the pollsters miss will very likely be Dims. This is not unlike a strong rural vote carrying in a GOP candidate that pollsters thought was in trouble.
So I am taking a wait and see attitude on this one.
Will there be any Republicans there manning the polls? Any Diebold machines stored in car trunks? Any Black Panther friendlies present?
I think a Republican needs at least a 14 point cushion to overcome the fraud in a dem district like this. And, even then, they’d eke by in an election so close it would need a recount.
Extra bonus.since the Dems will refuse to admit that this is a repudiation, in a hevily Dem district, of Obama’s policies...they will say that this is because voters were DISGUSTED with Weiner’s behavior...they were sending a message...IOW..Weiner’s toast.....no comeback for him..
Where is State-run, lame-stream, liberal-left, progressive-communist media? They are sleeping on the job. They should have destroyed the Republican candidate by now.
That then makes this race very interesting.
CAN THE COMMIE HEAR US NOW? I doubt it....but it will be fun watching all the little bugs scurry about.
Fantastic! Just fantastic!
Another thought...NY loses 2 CDs..and since control of the legislature is split..it’s usually one DEM district, and one GOP distict that is euthanized..everyone thought that this would be one of those killed..so whoever won would be a one-term-wonder...that’s why the young GOP councilman passed on the chance to run for the seat. NY has lost population..mostly upstate..this area in NYC is growing..maybe they should rethink strategy and keep it..it’s be like Ft. Apache....one littel RED district in a sea of blue...when this Republican gets to the house..he’s gonna be treated like a rock star...
I’ll believe it when the vote is official.
I'll bet, if the pubbie does win, that it's just a vote against the Mussie in chief for him back stabbing Israel...nothing more. Next time a ‘Rat runs they will take the seat...so I say let it go.
Won’t happen. This is NY......the deciding last minute votes can always be dug up for Dems! The guy will probably get Franken’d....
Can you imagine the shock-waves this would send through D.C. if Anthony Weenie’s seat went to a Pubbie?
Come on, Chicago is #1 in nastiness. We have been slacking off of late though, no shootings.
This is good news, but, watch the money come in and Union thugs be out if full force, before Tuesday. OUR BEST HOPE IS FOR A HELLACIOUS RAIN STORM ON ELECTION DAY AND THE UNMOTIVATED DEMS STAY HOME!!!
In that neck of the woods, elections are won by the dems with huge election frauds.
The liberals’ pollstrs PPP hve a poll coming out with similar numbers judging from their teaser tweets:
If David Weprin wins this race, he’s going to win it in the final 5 days.
12 hours ago
My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.
12 hours ago”
The district is very conservative..lots of eastern European Orthodox Jews..who know first hand the evils of socialism....they’re also opposed to the pro-gay marriage position of the Dems...I think the district could be kept Pubbie....we shall see...nice to have another option...
What’s the race in Nevada about?
That's not a very meaningful thing to say, since districts have been changed geographically every ten years with redistricting, and since urban ethnic geographic distribution patterns changed markedly over the years. The county of Queens as a whole, for instance, was mostly Republican and mostly small-town with even some rural areas until after WWII.
As for the current Turner-Weprin race, something very unusual is happening: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun running 30-second ads for Weprin on local NYC TV stations. That's almost unheard of for a NYC House district election, since NYC advertising is relatively expensive and their candidates have generally been shoo-ins. So it's a tip-off that the 'Rats are running scared.
As to the content of the ad, nothing surprising there. Turner is portrayed as a jet-setting fatcat who wants to maintain tax breaks for corporations, reduce benefits for Social Security and Medicare, and is a threat to the middle class. The ad ends with touting the New York Slimes endorsement of Weprin.
Thankfully Flushing lies just outside the district . . .
(Sorry. : )
The only way OTrauma gets another term is if he calls off all elections and turns the military out on American citizens.
Well, my source for the 1922 statement is DJ, and I’m sure that he would not have said that if the bulk of the district had been represented by a Republican at any time since 1922. I don’t know, maybe LeBoutiller (sp?) represented some of the Queens precincts from 1981-1983, but the part of the district that Chuck Schumer used to represent has been sending Democrats to Congress for many decades.
U.S. House special election in the Reno-based NV-02 (which includes all of the counties outside of Las Vegas’s Clark County, and takes in part of Clark County as well) to fill the vacancy created by Republican Dean Heller’s resignation upon his appointment to the U.S. Senate. Republican Mark Amodei will defeat Democrat State Treasurer Kate Marshall.
I'm hoping he wins, of course, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Isn’t this the contest where the Dems infiltrated the Republican campaign with “spies”, and where they had some Dem thug using brownshirt tactics to disrupt the Republican’s campaign events?
Great! Though not a gain, it’s still good news!
If Wiener is really toast among usually loyal Democrats, that may have one further effect.
Wiener married Huma (with Bill Clinton officiating!) as a way to give Hillary a useful beard for her “body girl.”
But with Wiener now in the toilet, where does that leave Hillary? Her beard is no longer very respectable or credible.
No doubt the media will avoid speaking about her lesbian proclivities anyway, as they have done for many years, but this reaction may undercut her chances, at least a little.
Weiner won with 93% of the vote in 2008, I can't quite figure it out. Orthodox Jews are not actually GOP locks like say Pentecostals. They are conservative compared to Reform but not so much compared to many Christian conservative sub groups. Hillary and Bill got in trouble with some rabbis around Monsey (or was it Monroe?)with donations shenanigans and I think charges came up.
Past 3 POTUS elections the district has gone around 55% Democrat except 2000 when it went 68%
71% white, 14% latino, 4% black, 11% Asian
I guess the whites vote majority GOP but enough peel off and vote with the minority Dem blocks...in national elections...strange voting...93% for Weiner in 2008 yet only 55% for Obama or Kerry?
It would be a major boner if the Dems lose this seat.
It seems that Weiner left a bad taste in their mouths.
It’s a hard race to win for a Democrat.
I can go all day.
i aint driving down thare to ‘elp out. staying home.
That 93% numnber can’t be correct..mujst be a typo..you need to check it..I’m sure it’s available online somewheres..in 2010 he won about 60-40, I believe
Remember that this 9th District was drawn up in a very weird shape so as to include relatively few blacks and Hispanics. That gives the GOP more of a shot here, and the dissatisfaction with Obama could be the straw that breaks the 'Rats' back.