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PPP: Turner poised for big upset (NY-9 Special Election)
PPP ^ | 9-11-11 | Public Policy Polling

Posted on 09/11/2011 8:53:15 PM PDT by tcrlaf

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: ny9; nyc; poll; weiner
This is the poll for Tuesday's Special Election for Weiner Tweeter Weiner's New York City Congressional Seat.

If it is THIS BAD for Democrats in NEW YORK CITY, from a Democrat pollster, it's going to be an unadulterated DISASTER nationwide, no matter WHO the nominee is.

1 posted on 09/11/2011 8:53:22 PM PDT by tcrlaf
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To: tcrlaf

Don’t give up till the polls close. This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.


2 posted on 09/11/2011 8:59:41 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead.)
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To: tcrlaf

The Dems will find a way to steal it.


3 posted on 09/11/2011 9:01:58 PM PDT by Ronin (Obamanation has replaced Bizarroworld as the most twisted place in the universe.)
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To: Free Vulcan

The REAL story here is how sharply the pro-Israel Democrat Jews are breaking for the Republican, and abandoning the Obamafuhrer.


4 posted on 09/11/2011 9:05:30 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Democrats have been OUTFORCING America's jobs for 40 years)
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Don’t believe it. New York Jews will vote for the democrat. Abortion means more to them than Israel.


5 posted on 09/11/2011 9:15:18 PM PDT by Godwin1
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To: tcrlaf

This will be absolutely huge (hugh) for the Republicans to pick up a congressional seat in an inner-city district. Hopefully if we can win it, we can keep it. I have to warn all of you though, the Republican may not be a 100% conservative. But to get a foothold in a district like this will be significant.


6 posted on 09/11/2011 9:18:32 PM PDT by wrcase
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To: wrcase

Well, I wouldn’t call a congressional district that carves its way through nice parts of Brooklyn and Queens “inner-city,” but it would be a great victory for sure!


7 posted on 09/11/2011 9:21:34 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: tcrlaf

I’m expecting massive, MASSIVE, vote fraud to deliver a squeaker to the Commie incumbent.


8 posted on 09/11/2011 9:22:05 PM PDT by Rembrandt (.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)
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To: Free Vulcan
Don’t give up till the polls close. This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.

Got that right.

Could be Obama's sellout of Israel and ass kissing of Islamic despots and Muslims is alienating some of the "vote for any Democrat" Jews (which is pretty much all of them). I am surprised. The Dems have been selling out Israel for a long time, and not been subtle about it, either. And up to now, that hasn't deterred the Jewish vote. I figured that nothing a Dem could do would get them to vote for a Republican.

In spite of this poll, I will believe it *after* it happens, not before.

It will be interesting to see how accurate this turns out to be. IF it is on the money, I may watch the TV news just for the pleasure of seeing pained looks on the faces of the liberals in the press that masquerade as journalists. The BS rationalizations will be something to see.

9 posted on 09/11/2011 9:22:54 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ( If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: Rembrandt
I’m expecting massive, MASSIVE, vote fraud to deliver a squeaker to the Commie incumbent.

Like that district where Hillary got 100% of the eligible voters when she ran for Senator? Shazam, it was a cattle futures miracle!

10 posted on 09/11/2011 9:25:23 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ( If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: tcrlaf

NEVER trust PPP.


11 posted on 09/11/2011 9:26:35 PM PDT by bwc2221
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To: tcrlaf

I know. Really hoping this breaks GOP. Even if Turner loses by less than 5% the DNC will be in uncontrollable anal pucker mode. If he wins they’ll be on suicide watch.

Will have the popcorn popped and ready for showtime.


12 posted on 09/11/2011 9:26:57 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead.)
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To: Ted Grant

I’m not familiar with the specifics of the district, but I probably wouldn’t call it rural or even close to a traditional Republican district. When was the last time a Republican represented the district? No trolling, just curious.


13 posted on 09/11/2011 9:39:20 PM PDT by wrcase
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To: tcrlaf

Don’t believe it! Get out the damn vote!!!


14 posted on 09/11/2011 9:54:05 PM PDT by montag813
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To: Godwin1
Don’t believe it. New York Jews will vote for the democrat. Abortion means more to them than Israel.

A lot of the Jews in this district are Orthodox. Israel is very important to them.

15 posted on 09/11/2011 10:11:40 PM PDT by freespirited (Stupid people are ruining America. --Herman Cain)
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To: wrcase

1923

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York’s_9th_congressional_district


16 posted on 09/11/2011 10:12:37 PM PDT by seton89 (Starve the Beast)
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To: tcrlaf

I’d say they’ll be flying Clinton in there tomorrow. I’ll guarantee you all that if the dems lose this, we won’t hear a thing about it in the MSM.


17 posted on 09/11/2011 10:46:25 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: Rembrandt

There is no incumbent. Weiner resigned. It is a special election. I’m sure there will be massive voter fraud to elect Weprin, who doesn’t even live in the district.


18 posted on 09/11/2011 11:42:18 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: tcrlaf
Here are some other interesting facts from the poll:
Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race. A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was 'very important' in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn't say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36

Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate.

It is a shame the PPP is not also looking at how Blacks, Latinos, Asians and White Catholics are voting. I suspect that Turner has the White Catholic vote, but Weprin has the non-white vote.
19 posted on 09/12/2011 12:02:19 AM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
Wienermobile wipes out | Firefighter Nation | 2-9-2008 | George Osgood | Posted on 02/11/2008 2:59:21 PM PST by Cagey

20 posted on 09/12/2011 12:29:30 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Free Vulcan

This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.

*************************************************************

Sorry, but discouraging liberal turnout, as this poll will do is not a way to win. Not saying the Rep have this won but the polls, and there are a few with the same result and none showing the lib winning, will if anything encourage the right to turn out.


21 posted on 09/12/2011 2:45:51 AM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: wrcase

When was the last time a Republican even ran here?
There’s also a special election for state assembly on tuesday. There is a republican candidate (Marco deSena http://marcodesena.com/) but he didn’t even bother putting his website together. So of course the dem will win by huge margins. When Republicans won’t even try they have nobody to blame but themselves.

What’s amazing is that Turner is catholic and he’s getting the Jewish vote over someone who goes to Young Israel. Imagine if the GOP fielded a Jewish guy? He would for sure win. But forget identity politics. They won’t work anymore.


22 posted on 09/12/2011 3:19:55 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: Free Vulcan

People don’t vote for losers. Also, many rabbis have come out saying to vote for Turner.


23 posted on 09/12/2011 3:25:18 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: ari-freedom
Ari, I really appreciate your posts throughout this election. This is the most important political event since the 2010 election. If a conservative wins this congressional race it would have massive implications for the 2012 election. If there was ever a time to make some popcorn and settle in to watch an election this is the one.
24 posted on 09/12/2011 3:42:13 AM PDT by Recon Dad ("Don't forget, incoming fire has the right of way..")
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To: seton89

This seat was also held by Charles Shumer and Geraldine Ferraro.


25 posted on 09/12/2011 3:50:32 AM PDT by Atlantan
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To: ChildOfThe60s

“Like that district where Hillary got 100% of the eligible voters when she ran for Senator? Shazam, it was a cattle futures miracle! “

nothing to do with this district. It is not even chassidic but it is very orthodox.


26 posted on 09/12/2011 4:12:10 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: rmlew

Non whites aren’t going to go out of their way to vote for a white Jewish guy who supports gays in a special election.


27 posted on 09/12/2011 4:15:29 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: tcrlaf
Weprin must go!

28 posted on 09/12/2011 4:17:00 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: Recon Dad

yes, the entire country is watching. It really bothers me that this guy is going around misrepresenting my religion and my district. Why couldn’t they pick someone like Hikind? The dems would win but what they really want is the leftist agenda.


29 posted on 09/12/2011 4:22:46 AM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: Ronin
The Dems will find a way to steal it.


30 posted on 09/12/2011 4:46:14 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages.)
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To: ari-freedom
No matter what Weprin could say about his stance on Israel you know he'd have tow the Obama line. Israel needs us now more than ever. My wife and I have been there twice and love, respect and support Israel. Israel has to hold fast and keep the lid on everything until January 2013.
31 posted on 09/12/2011 4:51:42 AM PDT by Recon Dad ("Don't forget, incoming fire has the right of way..")
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To: Rembrandt

New York isn’t Chicago. There’s a lot of stupidity involved in vote counting; less corruption.

And this district is NOT an inner city. Wish I could vote there...


32 posted on 09/12/2011 4:55:51 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Run, Sarah, Run! Please!)
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To: freespirited; Godwin1

And my understanding is that most Orthodox Jews in the district actually follow the Torah and are pro-life.


33 posted on 09/12/2011 4:57:19 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: KoRn

You’ll have to go to the New York Post for the udpates. They’ll be the only ones to cover the story.


34 posted on 09/12/2011 4:59:42 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Run, Sarah, Run! Please!)
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To: tcrlaf

Wow. Maybe there’s hope for Downstate yet....


35 posted on 09/12/2011 5:01:33 AM PDT by mewzilla (Forget a third party. We need a second one.)
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To: rmlew

PPP did present results by race or ethnicity in its (very comprehensive) crosstabs, but you have to click on the link for full results.

The district is mostly white Anglo, with a Hispanic minority, some Asians, and very few blacks or others. PPP found that Turner beat Weprin by 54%-39% among white Anglos, the two candidares tied at 37% among Hispanics (which the cross-tabs reveal to consider Israel as a “very important issue” at a higher rate than do the district’s white Anglos—maybe there are a lot of Hispanic Jews in the district), and Weprin leads only among the smaller Asian group (49%-32%) and “other” (mostly black, I would guess) group (55%-33%).


36 posted on 09/12/2011 5:22:55 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Godwin1

Turner can’t do anything about abortion. And, geez, the Weiner’s are having a baby!


37 posted on 09/12/2011 5:30:05 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: Ronin
The Dems will find a way to steal it.

This district is LOADED with nursing and group homes whose inmates I doubt have been included in any of these polls. All day long the vans and school buses will be pulling up to the polling places so that these folks will not be "disenfranchised". Once there, they will be accompanied into the voting booths (does Fun City still use booths?) by fine, civic minded individuals who will "assist" them in voting for the proper candidate.

38 posted on 09/12/2011 5:54:00 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: 101voodoo; ari-freedom

Sorry guys, I’ve been thru too many rodeos to know this is a standard tactic of the Left.

This is what they did to Jim Ross Lightfoot in the governor’s race against Tom Vilsack in 1998. Every poll showed Lightfoot with a comfortable lead very late in the election and the GOP thought they had it in the bag. It depressed GOP turnout and Lightfoot’s campaign relaxed the last few days instead of driving GOTV right till the polls closed.

Vilsack won.


39 posted on 09/12/2011 8:46:05 AM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Thank you for the breakdown.
There are some Jews form Latin America. I suspect that some Sephardi Jews may be calling themselves Hispanic, which is a good reminder of how silly that grouping is. And a lot of Hispanics are Evangelical Protestants.

The GOP has a lot of work to do with Asians.
40 posted on 09/12/2011 8:25:50 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: rmlew

I read that Weprin has been campaigning heavily for the NY-09’s Chinese voters; he worked hard for endorsements from Chinese leaders in Flushing, which falls outside the district (it’s in Ackerman’s NY-05) but who Weprin hopes will be influential among NY-05 Chinese.

But if Turner gets 55% of the Jewish vote today, Weprin won’t win irrespective of how big Chinese turnout ends up being.


41 posted on 09/13/2011 2:45:15 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Never understood why Chinese would vote Democrat. I understand the basic rule that the the less assimilated a group, the more Democrat they are. I also know that Taiwanese might hold a grudge for US support of the KMT in Taiwan. Still, I never understand why those escaping communism would ever vote socialist or why those with such reverence for tradition and ancestors would support the left.


42 posted on 09/13/2011 9:47:49 AM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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