Skip to comments.PPP: Turner poised for big upset (NY-9 Special Election)
Posted on 09/11/2011 8:53:15 PM PDT by tcrlaf
Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.
Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.
It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
If it is THIS BAD for Democrats in NEW YORK CITY, from a Democrat pollster, it's going to be an unadulterated DISASTER nationwide, no matter WHO the nominee is.
Don’t give up till the polls close. This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.
The Dems will find a way to steal it.
The REAL story here is how sharply the pro-Israel Democrat Jews are breaking for the Republican, and abandoning the Obamafuhrer.
Don’t believe it. New York Jews will vote for the democrat. Abortion means more to them than Israel.
This will be absolutely huge (hugh) for the Republicans to pick up a congressional seat in an inner-city district. Hopefully if we can win it, we can keep it. I have to warn all of you though, the Republican may not be a 100% conservative. But to get a foothold in a district like this will be significant.
Well, I wouldn’t call a congressional district that carves its way through nice parts of Brooklyn and Queens “inner-city,” but it would be a great victory for sure!
I’m expecting massive, MASSIVE, vote fraud to deliver a squeaker to the Commie incumbent.
Got that right.
Could be Obama's sellout of Israel and ass kissing of Islamic despots and Muslims is alienating some of the "vote for any Democrat" Jews (which is pretty much all of them). I am surprised. The Dems have been selling out Israel for a long time, and not been subtle about it, either. And up to now, that hasn't deterred the Jewish vote. I figured that nothing a Dem could do would get them to vote for a Republican.
In spite of this poll, I will believe it *after* it happens, not before.
It will be interesting to see how accurate this turns out to be. IF it is on the money, I may watch the TV news just for the pleasure of seeing pained looks on the faces of the liberals in the press that masquerade as journalists. The BS rationalizations will be something to see.
Like that district where Hillary got 100% of the eligible voters when she ran for Senator? Shazam, it was a cattle futures miracle!
NEVER trust PPP.
I know. Really hoping this breaks GOP. Even if Turner loses by less than 5% the DNC will be in uncontrollable anal pucker mode. If he wins they’ll be on suicide watch.
Will have the popcorn popped and ready for showtime.
I’m not familiar with the specifics of the district, but I probably wouldn’t call it rural or even close to a traditional Republican district. When was the last time a Republican represented the district? No trolling, just curious.
Don’t believe it! Get out the damn vote!!!
A lot of the Jews in this district are Orthodox. Israel is very important to them.
I’d say they’ll be flying Clinton in there tomorrow. I’ll guarantee you all that if the dems lose this, we won’t hear a thing about it in the MSM.
There is no incumbent. Weiner resigned. It is a special election. I’m sure there will be massive voter fraud to elect Weprin, who doesn’t even live in the district.
This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.
Sorry, but discouraging liberal turnout, as this poll will do is not a way to win. Not saying the Rep have this won but the polls, and there are a few with the same result and none showing the lib winning, will if anything encourage the right to turn out.
When was the last time a Republican even ran here?
There’s also a special election for state assembly on tuesday. There is a republican candidate (Marco deSena http://marcodesena.com/) but he didn’t even bother putting his website together. So of course the dem will win by huge margins. When Republicans won’t even try they have nobody to blame but themselves.
What’s amazing is that Turner is catholic and he’s getting the Jewish vote over someone who goes to Young Israel. Imagine if the GOP fielded a Jewish guy? He would for sure win. But forget identity politics. They won’t work anymore.
People don’t vote for losers. Also, many rabbis have come out saying to vote for Turner.
This seat was also held by Charles Shumer and Geraldine Ferraro.
“Like that district where Hillary got 100% of the eligible voters when she ran for Senator? Shazam, it was a cattle futures miracle! “
nothing to do with this district. It is not even chassidic but it is very orthodox.
Non whites aren’t going to go out of their way to vote for a white Jewish guy who supports gays in a special election.
yes, the entire country is watching. It really bothers me that this guy is going around misrepresenting my religion and my district. Why couldn’t they pick someone like Hikind? The dems would win but what they really want is the leftist agenda.
New York isn’t Chicago. There’s a lot of stupidity involved in vote counting; less corruption.
And this district is NOT an inner city. Wish I could vote there...
And my understanding is that most Orthodox Jews in the district actually follow the Torah and are pro-life.
You’ll have to go to the New York Post for the udpates. They’ll be the only ones to cover the story.
Wow. Maybe there’s hope for Downstate yet....
PPP did present results by race or ethnicity in its (very comprehensive) crosstabs, but you have to click on the link for full results.
The district is mostly white Anglo, with a Hispanic minority, some Asians, and very few blacks or others. PPP found that Turner beat Weprin by 54%-39% among white Anglos, the two candidares tied at 37% among Hispanics (which the cross-tabs reveal to consider Israel as a “very important issue” at a higher rate than do the district’s white Anglos—maybe there are a lot of Hispanic Jews in the district), and Weprin leads only among the smaller Asian group (49%-32%) and “other” (mostly black, I would guess) group (55%-33%).
Turner can’t do anything about abortion. And, geez, the Weiner’s are having a baby!
This district is LOADED with nursing and group homes whose inmates I doubt have been included in any of these polls. All day long the vans and school buses will be pulling up to the polling places so that these folks will not be "disenfranchised". Once there, they will be accompanied into the voting booths (does Fun City still use booths?) by fine, civic minded individuals who will "assist" them in voting for the proper candidate.
Sorry guys, I’ve been thru too many rodeos to know this is a standard tactic of the Left.
This is what they did to Jim Ross Lightfoot in the governor’s race against Tom Vilsack in 1998. Every poll showed Lightfoot with a comfortable lead very late in the election and the GOP thought they had it in the bag. It depressed GOP turnout and Lightfoot’s campaign relaxed the last few days instead of driving GOTV right till the polls closed.
I read that Weprin has been campaigning heavily for the NY-09’s Chinese voters; he worked hard for endorsements from Chinese leaders in Flushing, which falls outside the district (it’s in Ackerman’s NY-05) but who Weprin hopes will be influential among NY-05 Chinese.
But if Turner gets 55% of the Jewish vote today, Weprin won’t win irrespective of how big Chinese turnout ends up being.
Never understood why Chinese would vote Democrat. I understand the basic rule that the the less assimilated a group, the more Democrat they are. I also know that Taiwanese might hold a grudge for US support of the KMT in Taiwan. Still, I never understand why those escaping communism would ever vote socialist or why those with such reverence for tradition and ancestors would support the left.