PPP: Turner poised for big upset (NY-9 Special Election)

PPP ^ | 9-11-11 | Public Policy Polling

[tcrlaf]

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

[tcrlaf]

This is the poll for Tuesday's Special Election for Weiner Tweeter Weiner's New York City Congressional Seat.

If it is THIS BAD for Democrats in NEW YORK CITY, from a Democrat pollster, it's going to be an unadulterated DISASTER nationwide, no matter WHO the nominee is.

[Free Vulcan]

Don’t give up till the polls close. This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.

[Ronin]

The Dems will find a way to steal it.

[tcrlaf]

The REAL story here is how sharply the pro-Israel Democrat Jews are breaking for the Republican, and abandoning the Obamafuhrer.

[Godwin1]

Don’t believe it. New York Jews will vote for the democrat. Abortion means more to them than Israel.

[wrcase]

This will be absolutely huge (hugh) for the Republicans to pick up a congressional seat in an inner-city district. Hopefully if we can win it, we can keep it. I have to warn all of you though, the Republican may not be a 100% conservative. But to get a foothold in a district like this will be significant.

[Ted Grant]

Well, I wouldn’t call a congressional district that carves its way through nice parts of Brooklyn and Queens “inner-city,” but it would be a great victory for sure!

[Rembrandt]

I’m expecting massive, MASSIVE, vote fraud to deliver a squeaker to the Commie incumbent.

[ChildOfThe60s]

Don’t give up till the polls close. This is a Dem polling firm, they love to do this stuff to kill turnout for our side.

Got that right.

Could be Obama's sellout of Israel and ass kissing of Islamic despots and Muslims is alienating some of the "vote for any Democrat" Jews (which is pretty much all of them). I am surprised. The Dems have been selling out Israel for a long time, and not been subtle about it, either. And up to now, that hasn't deterred the Jewish vote. I figured that nothing a Dem could do would get them to vote for a Republican.

In spite of this poll, I will believe it *after* it happens, not before.

It will be interesting to see how accurate this turns out to be. IF it is on the money, I may watch the TV news just for the pleasure of seeing pained looks on the faces of the liberals in the press that masquerade as journalists. The BS rationalizations will be something to see.

[ChildOfThe60s]

I’m expecting massive, MASSIVE, vote fraud to deliver a squeaker to the Commie incumbent.

Like that district where Hillary got 100% of the eligible voters when she ran for Senator? Shazam, it was a cattle futures miracle!

[bwc2221]

NEVER trust PPP.

[Free Vulcan]

I know. Really hoping this breaks GOP. Even if Turner loses by less than 5% the DNC will be in uncontrollable anal pucker mode. If he wins they’ll be on suicide watch.

Will have the popcorn popped and ready for showtime.

[wrcase]

I’m not familiar with the specifics of the district, but I probably wouldn’t call it rural or even close to a traditional Republican district. When was the last time a Republican represented the district? No trolling, just curious.

[montag813]

Don’t believe it! Get out the damn vote!!!

[freespirited]

Don’t believe it. New York Jews will vote for the democrat. Abortion means more to them than Israel.

A lot of the Jews in this district are Orthodox. Israel is very important to them.

[seton89]

1923

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York’s_9th_congressional_district

[KoRn]

I’d say they’ll be flying Clinton in there tomorrow. I’ll guarantee you all that if the dems lose this, we won’t hear a thing about it in the MSM.

[rmlew]

There is no incumbent. Weiner resigned. It is a special election. I’m sure there will be massive voter fraud to elect Weprin, who doesn’t even live in the district.

[rmlew]

Here are some other interesting facts from the poll:
Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race. A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was 'very important' in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn't say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36

Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate.

It is a shame the PPP is not also looking at how Blacks, Latinos, Asians and White Catholics are voting. I suspect that Turner has the White Catholic vote, but Weprin has the non-white vote.

[SunkenCiv]