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For Democrats, Itís 2010 All Over Again (Were the Special Congressional Elections a Bellwether?)
New York Times ^ | 09/14/2011 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/14/2011 2:59:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The outcome of any individual election to the United States House, even in a highly partisan era where Congressional elections have a relatively strong correlation with presidential voting and national trends, is going to be determined based on a combination of local and national factors. One congressional district’s outcome may diverge significantly from another’s – even if they seem similar on the surface — based on the quality of the candidates, the demographics of the region and issues highly pertinent to the district but not to the nation at large. Any one race may or may not be representative.

There are good reasons to think that local issues may have loomed especially large in New York’s 9th Congressional District, where the Republican Bob Turner won on Tuesday. President Obama had significantly underperformed his Democratic predecessors in the district in 2008, and the large split in voting between the Brooklyn and Queens portions of the district — the Brooklyn parts are more heavily Jewish — implies that Israel-related issues may have played a role.

There were other local factors as well: influential endorsements for Mr. Turner by Democratic leaders like former Mayor Ed Koch and the Assemblyman Dov Hikind, and local rabbis; the close timing of the election with the Sept. 11 anniversary; the fact that the district had been vacated by a Democrat, Anthony Weiner, in a scandal; and perhaps gay marriage in a district that is economically liberal but fairly religious, with pockets of social conservatism.

When paired with the results in Nevada’s Second Congressional District, where the Democrat Kate Marshall was blown out on Tuesday, the special election scorecard is starting to look pretty ominous for Democrats.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada; US: New York
KEYWORDS: bellweather; congress; democrats; elections; nobama2012; ny09; ny9; turner; weinerdistrict

1 posted on 09/14/2011 2:59:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
The New York Times makes a valiant effort to put a happy face on the recent special congressional elections that were won by Republicans running in Democrat strongholds. However, by the end of the article, they have to admit that things don't look very good for Democrats, generally, no matter how you spin it and that Obama may well be defeated in 2012, but only because, according to the New York Times, a 'wave' is going to bring back Republicans to power in Washington. Not that it has anything to do with the communist, Barack Obama. Noooooo.
2 posted on 09/14/2011 3:10:43 PM PDT by Jim Scott ( "Game On!" - Sarah Palin)
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver playing with himself.


3 posted on 09/14/2011 3:10:58 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: SeekAndFind

The combination of liberal teeth-gnashing/hand-wringing while at the same time denying this has anything to do with the zero is very interesting to watch.


4 posted on 09/14/2011 3:12:36 PM PDT by Newtoidaho (Fight organized crime. Vote out all incumbent Democrats!)
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To: SeekAndFind
This idiot in the NY Slimes said this just yesterday!:

"special elections to Congress, while interesting on their own merits, should more or less be ignored in terms of their national implications."

Now he is talking about how this election swung on the "national environment"??

What a tool.

5 posted on 09/14/2011 3:15:25 PM PDT by Meet the New Boss ( Obama: "I've created more jobs in soup kitchens than anyone since Jimmy Carter")
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To: SeekAndFind

To the New York Times:

You can’t wish this one away. No matter HOW liberal one’s thinking may have started off being, a mugging like what we have seen from the Democrat Congress and the White House from early in 2009 and all through 2010, set the stage for the brutal awakening going on now, as the full impact of that rape of the Constitution sets in.

There is a way that the current and now failing regime in the White House can reverse the current trend. And that is to call for just about a total repeal of everything that was passed by the rubber-stamp 111th Congress.

Most of that is going to be repealed anyway starting in 2013, just as well get started with the demolition job now.


6 posted on 09/14/2011 3:15:30 PM PDT by alloysteel (Are Democrats truly "better angels"? They are lousy stewards for America.)
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To: alloysteel

In Nevada the Democrat didn’t get beat, she got slaughtered by 30%. Never fear she is a professional trough feeder, so now she goes back to her first love as State Treasurer.


7 posted on 09/14/2011 3:19:33 PM PDT by BooBoo1000 ("IF YOU DON'T HOLD IT, YOU DON'T OWN IT" ( Wise old Gold Bug))
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To: SeekAndFind

The next special election to watch is the West Virginia governor election on Oct 4.


8 posted on 09/14/2011 3:21:28 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: PapaBear3625
West Virginia governor election on Oct 4. Is Manchion (sp?) from WV? The democrat who shot the cap-and-trade bill with a rifle?
9 posted on 09/14/2011 3:32:11 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: SeekAndFind

Could the voters of the ninth even spell republican day before yesterday? Good for them and really bad for obumer.


10 posted on 09/14/2011 3:43:08 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: BooBoo1000

This is a somewhat smaller margin than Heller won by in ‘10.
I haven’t been following this story too closely — there was only one Republican and one Democrat (plus two independents) in the race?

The NV Secretary of State had decided it could be a free-for-all election rather than one candidate nominated by each party. That apparently didn’t happen — not sure whether the GOP played it smart or a court reversed the SOS’s decision?


11 posted on 09/14/2011 3:46:29 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: hsalaw
WV election 2011. Joe Manchin was the old gov. He was elected to fill Robert Byrd's Senate seat, leaving a vacancy as gov, which is currently being filled by State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin, who is the Dem candidate. Follow the link for details.
12 posted on 09/14/2011 4:08:30 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: PapaBear3625

Thanks.


13 posted on 09/14/2011 4:46:10 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: SeekAndFind

There were no local issues here, and to claim that Koch and Hikind were the local issues is just silly.


14 posted on 09/14/2011 5:03:17 PM PDT by Tanniker Smith (I didn't know she was a liberal when I married her.)
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To: SeekAndFind
It is amazing how the post "Special Election" comments change from one in which a Democrap wins and one in which a Democrap Loses.

A previous Special election (2010 I think) the Democraps claimed that the victory showed that their national initatives were correct. Now Special elections are only determined by local issues. What BOOBS!
15 posted on 09/14/2011 5:31:58 PM PDT by leprechaun9
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To: SeekAndFind

If Rinos don’t get put down in the Congress, it will be Republicans who get scalped next. Americans are not socialists and they make terrible peasants.


16 posted on 09/14/2011 6:07:09 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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