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California jobless rate to remain stuck at 12% UCLA
Orange County Register (CA) ^ | September 20, 2011 | by Mary Ann Milbourn

Posted on 09/20/2011 6:55:12 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

California’s unemployment rate, which had been coming down earlier this year, is now expected to remain at 12% through 2012, according to UCLA’s quarterly economic forecast released today.

And things won’t improve much from there.

“Employment growth in 2011 and 2012 will push unemployment down marginally,” wrote UCLA senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg. “Therefore, we do not expect it to reach single digits until 2014.”

UCLA economists do not believe the country is in a recession now — and don’t anticipate a double dip. But the reason isn’t very encouraging.

Senior economist David Shulman argues basically that the economy is so far down, it can’t really fall that much more.

“Simply put, the three sectors that would normally put the economy into recession are already depressed — housing, consumer durables and inventories,” he wrote. “Even if housing starts drop to new lows, this sector of the economy has shriveled so much that it would only have a modest impact on economic activity.”

(Excerpt) Read more at economy.ocregister.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: failure; obamanomics; socialism; unemployment


1 posted on 09/20/2011 6:55:17 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

No worries, they are already lining up to re-elect Zero.


2 posted on 09/20/2011 6:57:42 AM PDT by jboot
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

It’s probably 25% in reality...........


3 posted on 09/20/2011 7:02:36 AM PDT by Red Badger ("Treason doth never prosper.... What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason.")
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To: jboot

After Guv Brown gets his tax increases 12% will seem like the good old days.


4 posted on 09/20/2011 7:05:31 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

The California jobless rate will not go down until the following happens:

1. They throw out most illegals
2. They become a right to work state (especially with public unions)
3. They reduce tax rates and regulations


5 posted on 09/20/2011 7:13:01 AM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: Huskrrrr

There’s a reason I didn’t move to Cali, even though it was a lifelong goal of mine. Too bad. The weather is nice and the scenery is wonderful.


6 posted on 09/20/2011 7:13:16 AM PDT by jboot
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
the three sectors that would normally put the economy into recession are already depressed

Translated: We are not in danger of going into a recession because we are already in a depression?

7 posted on 09/20/2011 7:15:29 AM PDT by oldbrowser (Obama is a one trick phony (wealth distribution).)
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To: jboot

The only way to ever clean up California is to move the movie studios out of the state and clamp down on illegal aliens.


8 posted on 09/20/2011 7:27:59 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Rick Perry 2012 !)
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To: 2banana

The California jobless rate will not go down until the following happens:

1. They throw out most illegals
2. They become a right to work state (especially with public unions)
3. They reduce tax rates and regulations


Which they won’t.

It’s tempting to believe liberals can be made to change their spots. In California, they don’t see the need. To them, things are going along just fine.


9 posted on 09/20/2011 7:29:06 AM PDT by ScottinVA (With "successes" like the Libya adventure, who needs failure?)
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To: jboot
There’s a reason I didn’t move to Cali, even though it was a lifelong goal of mine. Too bad. The weather is nice and the scenery is wonderful.

I grew up there. It's overrated.

10 posted on 09/20/2011 7:35:12 AM PDT by ScottinVA (With "successes" like the Libya adventure, who needs failure?)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

You have to give those UCLA economists some credit. They do understand math. Dropping from 600,000 housing starts to 300,000 housing starts isn’t as bad as dropping from 2 million housing starts to 600,000 housing starts. Life is great! Have an orange!


11 posted on 09/20/2011 7:53:49 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: ScottinVA
I grew up there. It's overrated.

I spent three weeks living in and near CA when I was a boy. It was one of the best experiences of my life. Return visits over the years reinforced my love of the state. But then things went REALLY bad (and permanently bad, IMHO) and I had to adjust my goals. At any rate, I'm stuck where I live for the foreseeable future, maybe forever if Zero gets another term.

12 posted on 09/20/2011 8:17:30 AM PDT by jboot
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
UCLA economists do not believe the country is in a recession now

So, professors, what do you call it?

13 posted on 09/20/2011 8:28:51 AM PDT by Right Brother
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To: Red Badger

It’s probably 25% in reality...

So many people are on welfare in the cities and that is "employment" that the figures are way off. The true test is the producing areas of the land, where food, minerals and lumber come from.

I have some friends that live in one of the rural counties of Californica and the rate in that county hit 40% and is still going up. The State shut down the lumber and the mining industry there for environmental reasons and just plain greed. Not much left.

You could not touch the tiniest house there for under a quarter mill, just saw an add for a house downtown for 89,000.

This almost recession now has higher unemployment rates than the last Great Depression (using the same math methods, not the new math),and is just picking up steam. There seems to be no common sense left in government, everything is graft and greed at this point, so I do not have much hope for my friends economic future.

He works, or worked as a high level concrete construction company building bridges and such. Now every time he bids on anything the unions take him to court. So they get all the bids. Nobody can compete with lawsuits on their backs. And the Goobermint takes their payola and politely nods...

It truly is unsustainable, and they all know it, but they are so busy looting the treasury that they don't much care if the bank burns to the ground.

14 posted on 09/20/2011 9:36:22 AM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: American in Israel

http://www.roman-colosseum.info/roman-empire/reason-why-the-roman-empire-fell.htm


15 posted on 09/20/2011 10:03:55 AM PDT by Red Badger ("Treason doth never prosper.... What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason.")
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