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Nasa refines satellite crash time ('out-of-control' climate satellite crash Pool anyone?)
BBC.co.uk ^ | 9/22/11 | Paul Rincon - BBC News

Posted on 09/22/2011 10:32:06 AM PDT by NormsRevenge

The US space agency (Nasa) says that its out-of-control climate satellite is expected to crash to Earth sometime on Friday evening (GMT).

There is still much uncertainty over when and where the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere.

Experts say they will get a more precise idea in the last 12 hours before the satellite is due to return.

The US space agency says the risk to life from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is 1 in 3,200.

Satellite and space expert Dr Stuart Eves stressed the large uncertainties involved in tracking the "decay" of satellite orbits (their slow fall back into the Earth's atmosphere).

Using the most recent determination of UARS' orbit - taken in the early hours of this morning - Dr Eves and a colleague have come up with their own projections of the satellite's final descent. But he explained that a spacecraft's orbit lifetime could only be estimated to about 10% accuracy.

This translates to a six-hour window either side of the expected decay which, based on a range of probabilities, would see the spacecraft splash down in the Southern Ocean.

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Government; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: nasa; refines; satellite; uars
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Risk to life 1 in 3,200. not bad odds.

Good luck! Keep your head up and butt down Friday evening late is my best guess .. could be a close one brewin' out there for someone.. Here's to a good light show..

1 posted on 09/22/2011 10:32:09 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
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http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

UARS Updates

Update #8
Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:44:51 AM PDT

As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.


2 posted on 09/22/2011 10:33:10 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge

You would think they would have enough sense to steer it into the ocean

Do they have NO control over it at all?


3 posted on 09/22/2011 10:34:26 AM PDT by Mr. K (Palin/Bachman 2012- unbeatable ticket~!!!)
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To: Mr. K

Nope,, sounds like it’s a dead bird..


4 posted on 09/22/2011 10:36:47 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge
Maybe we'll all luck out and it'll score 3 points for a good field goal from above.....


5 posted on 09/22/2011 10:37:53 AM PDT by b4its2late ("Pray for Obama. Psalm 109:8")
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To: NormsRevenge
(their slow fall back into the Earth's atmosphere)

17,000 miles per hour isn't exactly slow...........

6 posted on 09/22/2011 10:38:40 AM PDT by Red Badger ("Treason doth never prosper.... What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason.")
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To: NormsRevenge

“Out-Of-Control Climate Satelite About To Crash to Earth!”

The allegories just write themselves.....


7 posted on 09/22/2011 10:38:51 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: NormsRevenge

8 posted on 09/22/2011 10:39:15 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Mr. K
Do they have NO control over it at all?

That is correct.

9 posted on 09/22/2011 10:40:06 AM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: NormsRevenge

As I understand there’s a 1 in 21 TRILLION chance of it hitting Flo from the Progressive insurance commercials.


10 posted on 09/22/2011 10:40:55 AM PDT by JRios1968 (I'm guttery and trashy, with a hint of lemon. - Laz)
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To: NormsRevenge
As far as it falling on anyone in the US, not very likely. The UARS orbits mostly over the oceans and Russia.

(facts are good)

Source: UARS Orbit Data

11 posted on 09/22/2011 10:41:08 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: NormsRevenge

One in 3200?

But there are about 6.4 billion people on Earth...

THE SATELLITE IS GONNA KILL 2,000,000 PEOPLE!!!!


12 posted on 09/22/2011 10:41:17 AM PDT by djf (Buncha sheep: A flock.. Buncha cows: A herd.. Buncha fish: A school.. Buncha baboons: A Congress..)
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To: NormsRevenge

NASA scientists/engineers/mooooooslem outreach-ers:

“We are 99.98% sure that it will crash within the next 100 years.”

How’s that?


13 posted on 09/22/2011 10:42:22 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: djf

I bet 200 Quatloo on Port Saint Lucy ...


14 posted on 09/22/2011 10:43:01 AM PDT by Scythian
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To: Mr. K
Do they have NO control over it at all?

I think not. That's why they are reffering to it as an out of control satellite.

Just download the 80's song from DEVO entitled "Space Junk" and you will understand everything. It might hit Africa, Venezuela, Texas, Kansas, Peru too!

15 posted on 09/22/2011 10:43:03 AM PDT by BRK
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Space.com thread posted earlier
Falling NASA Satellite Could Spark Stunning Light Show
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2782160/posts


16 posted on 09/22/2011 10:43:04 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge

What’s the spread on which crashes first: the satellite or the stock market?


17 posted on 09/22/2011 10:43:09 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Where is the “Southern Ocean”?


18 posted on 09/22/2011 10:45:00 AM PDT by US_MilitaryRules (Uhhhh!)
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To: UCANSEE2
If you notice at Africa the paths don't line up.

That is because each rotation moves it a little farther along the earth.

19 posted on 09/22/2011 10:45:29 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: UCANSEE2

That orbital track would be good IF the Earth didn’t rotate.

It does.

The UARS track also has FIVE instances where it will pas over the US. All of them occur early tomorrow morning. Since NASA says it’s coming down in the afternoon (they THINK), the orbital tracks will be mostly over the Pacific...BUT a couple of the afternoon tracks also take them over densely-populated parts of Europe.

I’d be willing to be some folks at NASA are finding religion right about now, PRAYING the thing doesn’t fall in Europe.


20 posted on 09/22/2011 10:48:04 AM PDT by hoagy62 ("Polls are for strippers and cross-country skiers”~Sarah Louise Palin)
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To: andy58-in-nh

oh wow.. I hadn’t looked in a half hour.

Dow 10,688.72 -436.12 -3.92%

Gold 1,730.90 -74.60 -4.13%

tough call..


21 posted on 09/22/2011 10:49:57 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: UCANSEE2

from the orbit map posted, it might just schwack Syria......


22 posted on 09/22/2011 10:50:59 AM PDT by roaddog727 (It's the Constitution, Stupid!)
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To: US_MilitaryRules

Just south of the Northern Ocean.. or sumthin’ geessh..

lol


23 posted on 09/22/2011 10:51:19 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: Scythian; JRios1968

We can STILL hope it’s Flo!!

Pleeze! Pleeze! If there’s a God in heaven, let it be Flo!!

;-)


24 posted on 09/22/2011 10:51:59 AM PDT by djf (Buncha sheep: A flock.. Buncha cows: A herd.. Buncha fish: A school.. Buncha baboons: A Congress..)
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To: NormsRevenge

The reentry burnup of a climate satellite is ... man-made climate warming LOL!


25 posted on 09/22/2011 10:53:07 AM PDT by mrsmith
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To: US_MilitaryRules

Just north of here


26 posted on 09/22/2011 10:54:00 AM PDT by al baby (Is that old windbag still on the air ?)
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To: NormsRevenge

So if I start to see the light about the time this thing should land is that a good thing?


27 posted on 09/22/2011 10:54:14 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: djf

I’m with you - the numbers don’t add up unless the thing is carrying a bunch of nukes...


28 posted on 09/22/2011 10:55:20 AM PDT by GOPJ (126 people were indicted for being terrorists in the last two years. Every one of them was Muslim.)
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To: UCANSEE2
As far as it falling on anyone in the US, not very likely.

I'm not taking any chances. I'm going to have my umbrella with me all day.

29 posted on 09/22/2011 10:57:02 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: andy58-in-nh
What’s the spread on which crashes first: the satellite or the stock market?

We're down 436 for the day so far...

30 posted on 09/22/2011 10:57:02 AM PDT by GOPJ (126 people were indicted for being terrorists in the last two years. Every one of them was Muslim.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Financials are getting slaughtered, especially. It’s about as close to global capitulation as I’ve seen in a while. There is still some positive volume though, and we could see a bottom by tomorrow. But the fear is more than palpable out there...


31 posted on 09/22/2011 10:57:10 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: US_MilitaryRules
Where is the “Southern Ocean”?

Good catch - there isn't one...

32 posted on 09/22/2011 10:57:50 AM PDT by GOPJ (126 people were indicted for being terrorists in the last two years. Every one of them was Muslim.)
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To: US_MilitaryRules

It’s the water around Antarctica.


33 posted on 09/22/2011 10:58:43 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: UCANSEE2

Satellite orbits are more or less stationary with respect to the “fixed” stars, not the rotating earth. Between successive 90 minute orbits, the earth will rotate approximately 22.5 degrees of longitude to the east, meaning, that for a person on the earth, the satellite will appear about 22.5 degrees in longitude further to the west between orbits. Over time, that satellite will cover almost the entire earth.


34 posted on 09/22/2011 10:59:30 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (Ceterum autem censeo, Obama delenda est.)
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To: hoagy62

Here’s to a safe splashdown before Saturday evening worse case. We’re flying to Europe and would be crossing a flight path enroute.

That would make a heck of a video from an airliner window,, debris flying by... but I don’t want to be the one making it and we don’t need any new ruins in Europe, that would be a mess.


35 posted on 09/22/2011 10:59:36 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge

Meanwhile, Al Gore is cringing in the deepest fallout shelter he can find, curled up in a little ball while sobbing, saying that the satellite is going to destroy the Earth, killing everyone, and me! It’s going to kill me! (sob!)


36 posted on 09/22/2011 10:59:46 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: NormsRevenge

I’m hoping it destroys the muslim mosque sitting on-top the temple mount.


37 posted on 09/22/2011 10:59:59 AM PDT by Sweet Hour of Prayer
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To: djf

Odds are even better that it could hit Michael the Hutt Moore.


38 posted on 09/22/2011 11:00:50 AM PDT by JRios1968 (I'm guttery and trashy, with a hint of lemon. - Laz)
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To: NormsRevenge

BREAKING:


I have a contact at NASA, this is no joke. He said that they received a disturbing transmission from the satillite that alarmed command and control to such an extent that they tried to detonate the satellite, yes, it had that capabilitity. But something when drastically wrong. I am taking a huge personal risk here, he snuck out the transmission and gave me a link to it, I feel it's too important not to share this no matter what the consequence are, here is a link to it (transmission recording). After listening to it you might want to call your loved ones and tell them you love them.
39 posted on 09/22/2011 11:00:56 AM PDT by Scythian
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To: UCANSEE2

Too much to hope it lands on Beijing?


40 posted on 09/22/2011 11:01:20 AM PDT by icanhasbailout
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To: NormsRevenge

The FR betting pool has this list of potential targets so far.

The White Hut
Mecca
Achmedinjad’s place
Either of Al Gore’s houses
Syria

Feel free to add to the list!


41 posted on 09/22/2011 11:01:35 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: GOPJ

The Southern Ocean was designated an an official ocean in 2000.


42 posted on 09/22/2011 11:02:23 AM PDT by ZGuy
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To: NormsRevenge
Experts say they will get a more precise idea in the last 12 hours before the satellite is due to return, and a precise location within 1 hour after it hits.
43 posted on 09/22/2011 11:05:04 AM PDT by DManA
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To: US_MilitaryRules
Where is the “Southern Ocean”?

Neo-confederate penguins in Antartica seceded and formed their own ocean. It is most well known as the site of Animal Planet's "reality" show Hippies Failling Badly™.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean

Geographers disagree on the Southern Ocean's northern boundary or even its existence, with some considering the waters part of the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and Indian Oceans instead.

44 posted on 09/22/2011 11:08:01 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (Compare "Delay is preferable to error" - Thomas Jefferson // "Pass this bill now!" - Barack Obama)
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To: NormsRevenge

Has anyone bid on The Pacific Ocean yet?


45 posted on 09/22/2011 11:11:24 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: NormsRevenge

That’s about like drawing four of a kind, isn’t it?

My pick for touchdown is Roswell, NM.


46 posted on 09/22/2011 11:14:12 AM PDT by pallis
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To: pallis

Looks like N.Korea, S. E. China or may be parts of Siberia have a bullseyes on it!


47 posted on 09/22/2011 11:19:10 AM PDT by WellyP (REAL)
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To: ZGuy

Thanks - I had no idea...


48 posted on 09/22/2011 11:25:21 AM PDT by GOPJ (126 people were indicted for being terrorists in the last two years. Every one of them was Muslim.)
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To: djf

LOL, you win at statistics!


49 posted on 09/22/2011 11:27:28 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Debt is the foundation of destruction" : Sarah Palin.)
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To: NormsRevenge
Here are 4 screen captures of the UARS orbit track done on my 'Orbitron' program.

This one is for the orbit starting in Mid-Pacific at 1:30pm Eastern...


50 posted on 09/22/2011 11:43:30 AM PDT by hoagy62 ("Polls are for strippers and cross-country skiers”~Sarah Louise Palin)
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