Skip to comments.Rick Perry's underwhelming debates: Do they matter?
Posted on 09/27/2011 6:34:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
An article about the debates with a twist that might surprise some people.
still trying to sell a meltdown where none exists?
A new Zogby poll puts Herman Cain at the top of the Republican field, as the top choice of 28% of poll respondents. (IBOPE Zogby International says the polling sample consists of all likely voters and of likely Republican primary voters.)
Rounding out the top three are Rick Perry at 18%, and Mitt Romney at 17%. Fourth place goes to Ron Paul at 11%. Pauls the most solid performer in Zogbys polling history for the 2012 GOP race his 11% might as well be chiseled in stone.
Interestingly, this poll was conducted after the Orlando GOP debate, but before Cain won the Florida straw poll. Its a huge surge for Cain, who was polling at 12% just two weeks previously, and was floating at a campaign low of 8% two weeks before that. Aside from that bitter 8% number, Cain has generally done quite well in the Zogby poll, usually good enough for second or third place.
On the other hand, Rick Perrys numbers in the Zogby poll have cratered, falling 19% in just two weeks. His debut last month was also his high-water mark thus far, when Zogby had him at 41%.
Not really. His attacking conservatives does matter though.
Uh, right. Never mind, he is still leading, and Mitt is gaining nothing. Perry had a bad week. If he gets better, he probably wins. If he doesn’t, he’ll fade.
We report---you decide.
<><> Perrys debate answer WRT what hed do if the White House phone rang at 3 AM......informing him that the Taliban had gotten control of Pakistans nuclear weapons.
PERRY Well, obviously, before you ever get to that point, you have to build a relationship in that region. And thats one of the things that this administration has not done. Just yesterday we found out through Admiral Mullen that Haqqani has been involved with and thats the terrorist group directly associated with the Pakistani country so to have a relationship with India, to make sure that India knows that they are an ally of the United States.
Perry went on to tell a story about how the Obama administration wouldnt sell upgraded F-16 fighters to India, which n-e-v-e-r happened.
<><> Perry was anticipating the triumphal moment when he would be able to nail Romney for being a flip-flopper---and had prepared for it. This was Perry's response: I think Americans just dont know sometimes which Mitt Romney theyre dealing with. Is it the Mitt Romney that was on the side of against the Second Amendment before he was for the Second Amendment? Was it was before he was before the social programs from the standpoint of he was for standing up for Roe versus Wade before he was against first Roe versus Wade? Him he was for Race to the Top. Hes for Obamacare and now hes against it. I mean, well wait until tomorrow and and and see which Mitt Romney were really talking to tonight.
<><> Perry's candidacy-ending response was when he thumbed his nose at his country and its citizenry, saying those who disagreed with him on in-state tuition are "heartless." The inference was that only Perry was Truly Worthy (b/c only he had sucked up to Mexico).
Summing up, it's true that the nation has elected incoherent Texans to the White House, but Perry alone has come up with THE dumbest non-sequiturs. It's likely Perry derailed b/c serious questions have been raised WRT whether he has the intellect to be president.
Perry has a complete lack of presidential gravitas he has an odd way of responding to a debater, then cocking his head in an almost mechanical way, posing with a smug, self-satisfied grin (as if he had just paged through the vast holdings he's accumulated in Texas politics).
“After his less-than-commanding performance in two presidential debates, George W. Bush faces a tougher race than expected amid growing signs of Republican discontent—including a new poll that shows major slippage in the key primary state of New Hampshire.
As it turned out, of course, John McCain did stay ahead of Bush in New Hampshire that cycle and whomped him good on primary day by about 15 points. The next morning, with aides vowing to get serious, the Bush campaign moved on to South Carolina, where the Texan won.
And the rest, as they say, is history that Barack Obama reminds us all about every few hours.”
I agree with Dr Sowell. Exerpt. “Governor Perry saw the issue as whether these children should now be allowed to continue their education, and become self-supporting taxpayers, or whether Texas would be better off with a higher risk of those young people becoming dependents or worse. I still see Governor Perry’s decision as an error, but the kind of error that a decent and humane individual would be tempted to make.
I have far more questions about those who would blow this error up into something that it is not. Error-free leaders don’t exist — and we don’t want to end up settling for a warm body.
Ultimately, this is not about Governor Perry. It is about a process that can destroy any potential leader, even when the country needs a new leader with a character that the “gotcha” attackers demonstrate they do not have.”
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You have to think of Texas as being about 1.752 generations behind the rest of the country to figure out why they'd belch up a guy who'd call us "heartless"! (Bwahahahahaha!!!! ~ those guys still think like Democrats and Rockefeller Republicans)
LOL...not by a longshot. A Palin presidency however is nothing more than a bad pipedream.
You're omitting the crucial part about how Bush went on to win South Carolina...
Watching him operate, you know Perry's numbers were manipulated....that he thought he was invincible.....and that he is still clueless that his offensive debate remarks marred his carefully planned strategy.
Keep in mind, Perry did not officially enter the Iowa straw poll......but he calculatedly timed throwing his hat into the ring on the same day Bachman won the Iowa straw poll----stomping all over Bachman's hard-won victory. Perry cunningly manipulated the Iowa vote from Texas. That strategy was supposed to put him over the top. Instead he got a pathetic 700-800 write-ins ...while Iowa winners who did the right thing-spending time and money there- got 4000 votes each. The Perrydactyl's had been cued to "say" Ricky won Iowa.
And there was Perry---front and center---waving to Iowans, taking pics in front of prominent Iowa banners---manipulating the media to make it look like he was the winner.
The winner in his own mind.
Of course Perry’s campaign is not over as this is a long process. However, the debates do matter as Perry has taken a significant hit because of them. Many people predicted Perry would have a fairly easy ride to the nomination. Not anymore, he will definately have a fight on his hands as his shortcomings have been exposed.
He had that argument on the tip of his tongue ~ ready to run off like a recording. That indicates it's a memorized answer ~ not a thought out answer.
I'd prefer a President who can think, not just give me canned speeches. It would help if he had some staff around to help.
This raises a question. Supposedly a good number of Newt's staffers came from the Perry campaign. Then they left Newt and went back to Perry. SInce that time Newt's campaign has gotten ON TRACK and Perry's campaign has not only run off the rails it went over the cliff into the ditch and is still down there upside down, spinning wheels ~ making no headway.
So, how about it ~ can we get it together and get those Perbot staffers out of the picture. You can imagine what would happen if they were helping out our real candidate in an election against Zero. You'd have the Republican up there chirping "Me too, me too, me too".
Look here now, South Carolina Republican voters already proved that they don’t hear “black chil” and then vote for somebody else. It just doesn’t happen ~ not and end up with a Souf’ Asian woman as your Gubernator!
It was always obvious that McCain would lose for the same reason it is obvious now that Romney will. Each positioned himself as the champion of an extinct (or at any rate endangered) species — the Rockefeller Republican. If you want to win a GOP primary contest in this day and age you need to be a more plausible heir to Ronaldus Magnus than any serious competitor. McCain couldn't do that against Bush and Romney can't do that against Perry.
Perry, in fact, has a much bigger ideological advantage over Romney than Bush had over McCain. There was a serious argument that McCain was the more conservative candidate in 2000. I didn't buy it and neither did the electorate, but it was out there. Any attempt to argue that Romney is to Perry's right is absurd on its face.
As long as there are no other serious candidates on the right, Perry is in the catbird's seat, whatever any poll or commentator might say (and the polls probably aren't ever going to look nearly as bad as the commentary does). Romney could have beaten Bachmann, Cain and Co. But with a serious player to his right, he's toast.
Anyone who doesn't understand that Rick Perry is a serious player, doesn't know the first thing about American politics. There isn't anyone else in the Republican Party who can put together a campaign organization for 2012 to rival Romney's, Perry's a prolific fundraiser and an extraordinarily successful politician.
Embarrassing debates can't finish a guy like that, any more than they finished George W. Bush. Brilliant debates can't elevate someone who isn't a serious player into the top tier. It didn't work that way for Alan Keyes in 2000. It won't work that way for Herman Cain in 2012.
We're stuck with Perry, like it or not, just as we were stuck with Bush. The good news is that Perry seems to be a much better package than Bush was.
At least he didn't go to Yale.
but that’s just it, he hasn’t taken a hit.
The polls have been steady for over a month now with no affect on them what so ever by the 3 debates. If you go look at RCP which shows all the polls taken in the race over the last month you will see that Perry has polled consistantly around 29% +- 2. The only people watching primary debates and following this stuff closely at this point are people like us and people who get paid to follow this stuff.
Palin Position on Immigration
According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.
Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.
She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
It looks to me like Palin is for educating illegals plus giving them many more benefits.
Can he recover? Of course, but if he had a bullseye on him before, he’s really going to have one on him now. This is a circular firing squad, after all. Whichever one rises to the top next knows exactly what is waiting for them. We don’t stop until all ours are wounded.
Do you detect a pattern in your comparisons that suggests the problem is that YOU have a problem with black guys.
I was just asking how we can go about KEEPING THE PERBOT staff aides OUT of this campaign. They've already destroyed two candidates, so why should they get another chance?
Sounds like you are in denial....
Cain is surging. Many polls, such as Zogby, indicate as such, that Perry is closer to 19% and not 29%. Of course not all polls are accurate, by why are you ignoring all the polls that clearly show a Cain surge and Perry decline while promoting only the polls that you favor your preferred candidate?
While it's true that Texas is a "little" different from the rest of the US, please don't blame hapless hard-working Texans for foisting Perry on us.
Perry connived his way into the presidential race----and you get the distinct feeling he connived his way into the governor's seat. That steady stream of illegals pouring into Texas tells us native-born Texans don't have much say in Senor Ricky's unbroken string of re/elections.
CASE IN POINT The Texas Dream Act passed 10 years ago when Perry was desperate for votes---and began a curious unbroken string of election wins.
Perry's been described by some Texans as a kind of a Punxsutawney Phil. When it's time for election he's out there, packing/campaigning in a cowboy hat, pushing all the right Texas buttons. After he's elected, he disappears into his cave until it's time to wake up again.
When he does that disappearing act, big-hearted Rick gets down to the real business of governance----enriching himself.
Senor Ricky gets away with mucho BS in Texas. As one Texas FReeper posted: "I live in Texas. Perrys an embarrassment......an arrogant jerk who thinks the rest of us are heartless if we dont agree with giving tax dollars to Illegals.......rather than helping actual Americans." Perry's got a lot of skeletons in his closet.
Any candidate that is stupid enough to fall for it is too stupid to be President because allowing yourself to be manipulated by the stooges in Big News only sets the stage for your Presidency.
If some new outlet puts up an online polls on their website, the result is garbage. Straw poll? garbage. Online poll of those signed up to participate? garbage.
The polls done by the news outlets and the dedicated polling operations are usually pretty good, especially the larger ones done of likely voters. Of course, even in those polls you might occasionally get an outlier, which is why you should always look at ALL the polls (the scientific ones) to get a feel for where things really stand.
RCP(real clear politics) does this for you. They don't actually do any polling themselves, they simply take the results from all the “scientific polls” that have been done, list them and show you an average. This is very helpful because it can help smooth out the results of an occasional outlier poll that will sprout up from time to time.
O'REILLY: So you're president of the United States, Sarah Palin. You send how many National Guard to the border right away to secure it?
SARAH PALIN, FORMER GOVERNOR OF ALASKA: However many you need. This is a top priority. This is a national security issue.
O'REILLY: All right, but I'm talking Texas, California, New Mexico, all of them. So you'd send maybe 10,000, 15,000 National Guard down there to assist the Border Patrol, yes?
PALIN: Whatever it takes. Whatever it takes.
O'REILLY: All right, so you'd militarize the border. You'd finish the fence, finish building the fence from Brownsville to San Diego, yes?
O'REILLY: Now we have 12 million people staring at you. And you say to those people you're in here illegally; you broke civil law by coming in here. Now are you going to deport them? What are you going to do?
PALIN: Well, again, first, let me go back to the importance of securing the border. They're talking about amnesty
O'REILLY: No, but we got that, governor. Everybody
PALIN: No, we don't.
O'REILLY: Yes, the people watching this program have it. We have it. We assume that you, as president, would secure the border. I have confidence that you would do that. But now you have to look inward, all right? And you've got 12 million people staring at you. What are you going to have them do?
PALIN: You're not going to give them a free pass. You're not going to say, OK, you and anybody else who wants to scurry across this porous border between now and when we finally do finally get it fenced in and physically secure, we're going to give you a free pass.
O'REILLY: All right.
PALIN: And just because you've broken law in the past
O'REILLY: So no amnesty.
PALIN: we can trust you. No, no amnesty.
O'REILLY: But what do you do with these folks?
PALIN: Which means
O'REILLY: Do you make them register with the federal government? Do you tell them they have 60 days to get out of here before we put you in jail? What do you do with them?
PALIN: Do we make them register with the federal government? Yes, we do.
O'REILLY: Yes, so we know who they are.
PALIN: We have -- exactly, yes. I want to answer to that question absolutely.
O'REILLY: All right.
PALIN: We're not going to give them a free pass.
O'REILLY: So you make them register with the federal government.
PALIN: We're not going to reward the bad behavior.
O'REILLY: And if they don't register with the -- say you gave them 60 days to register with the federal government. There's a form at the post office they have to send in like a Census form. All right, say they didn't do it.
PALIN: You deport them.
PALIN: You have to get them out.
O'REILLY: So the ones that don't
PALIN: We don't reward their continued bad behavior.
O'REILLY: after period of time. OK, after a period of time
O'REILLY: the ones that don't cooperate, you catch them, they're gone.
Not really. His attacking conservatives does matter though.
Amen to that!! He will never get my support I will take that kind of vitriol from a Democrat but not from a conservative Republican.
His debate performance doesn’t matter to me. I didn’t want him in the first place. LOL
But the whole notion that the average voter turns off dancing with the stars to watch the republican primary debates to help them decide who to vote for is ludicrous.
It was VERY unpopular and people were almost in revolution mode before it finally died. Same as Gaurdasil. Remember Perry was a Blue Dog Dem before he switched sides to save his skin. It's sorta like a Libertarian. You love them and love them, then they eventually talk about legalizing drugs and losing wars because Washington didn't want foreign entanglements.
western civilization stands at the brink, the entire world monitary system is on the verge of collape... and you REALLY think the voters give a rats behind about the TTC or Gardacil?
Why do you have to bring Palin into every Perry thread... we all know how much you hate her... You should put your points in Palin threads instead.
(I am a Palin supporter, btw.... I read the other candidate threads, I just don’t usually say much in them).
Rick Perry’s underwhelming conservatism is what matters.
Yep. And then I read where the Fox folks, prior to the debate, were working so hard on the "gotchas"...even to the point of figuring out which camera should be on which candidate's face, to show the worst/best expressions...
This just sucks...
"Hours before last weeks presidential debate in Orlando, Ailess anchors sat in a cavernous back room, hunched over laptops, and plotted how to trap the candidates. Chris Wallace said he would aim squarely at Rick Perrys weakness: How do you feel about being criticized by some of your rivals as being too soft on illegal immigration? Then I go to Rick Santorum: is Perry too soft? Thats going to get some fireworks going, said managing editor Bill Sammon, grinning.
When showtime arrived, producer Marty Ryan choreographed the action from a crowded trailer outside the convention hall: he called for a two-shot when Wallace invited Mitt Romney to criticize Perrys immigration stance, so the audience could watch both mens agitated expressions. But Ryan barked, Lets just be on Perry, as the Texas governor demanded to know whether Santorum had ever been to the Mexican border, capturing the moment."
Ok fine, but most of the polls mentioned in Real Clear Politics are old (pre FL debate). Since, the Florida debate was declared to be pretty bad for Perry, it will be important to see how the polls that you accept will look.
It’s misleading of you to suggest Perry hasn’t taken a hit, when you don’t have solid data to support your position. The only data we have at this point is from straw polls and such, which clearly suggest Perry is falling.
If you want to caution using straw polls that’s fine, but you can’t then say “scientific” polls support your conclusion when those polls aren’t current.
The correct conclusion is that there is some reason to believe, based on straw polls, that Perry is declining, but we won’t know for sure until more relevant poll data is acquired.
"Underwhelming" is an understatement.
We get that crap from Hillary, Pelosi, Di-Fi, etc with the 'It's For The Children' nonsense.
Perry can go to Hades.
But your wrong.
If had looked closer at the polls you would have noticed that the latest scientific poll was taken after this latest debate and that the numbers hadn’t moved.
Perry was still at 28% Romney still at 21% exactly where they have been for the past month.
Now remember I did mention outliers... there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released. But the fact that the poll yesterday so completely matched the trend for the past month strongly suggests that Perry took no significant damage to his support. BUT, if you look closely at the numbers you will see that Gingrich's support is showing some movement... which could mean that although Perry has not lost support, and Romney has not picked up any support, some of the undecided voters are starting to lean towards the 2nd tier candidates like Gingrich and Cain.
“there is a slight possibility that the CNN poll released yesterday could be an outlier, we will know for sure once the next scientific poll of the race is released.”
The fact is you are basing your entire arguement now on 1 single poll from CNN...CNN! You admit it could be an outlier, yet you continue to say with confidence, “You are wrong”. It’s hilarious that now Freepers use CNN polls as the source of truth. Typically, they deride them as biased.
You truly sound like a blind, Perry homer that just doesn’t want to hear any negative news about your boy. If you would have just said from the beginning, there is insufficient poll data to say for sure that Perry is taking a hit, then you would be fine. Instead, you’ve been defensive and sure of your position since the get-go, despite not having solid poll data to support you.
All we need is the good doc to announce, he’s dead Jim. Everyone else knows he is in free fall.
At this point in time there is an extremely high probability that Perry still stands in the high 20’s based on all the data that has been released to date. The data doesn't care what you or I think, it doesn't care what the news channels have to say, the data is the data.
Perry appears, based on the data to have a base of support in the high 20’s, Romney appears to have a base of support in the low 20’s. That's just what the data says.
I donated money to Herman Cain’s campaign last night.
good :) I would love to see Cain and Gingrich still around until at least Iowa. Since Bachmann is for sure going to stay in until she looses Iowa, at which time Cain and or Gingrich has a good chance of picking up her supporters.