Posted on 09/27/2011 6:34:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
Look here now, South Carolina Republican voters already proved that they don’t hear “black chil” and then vote for somebody else. It just doesn’t happen ~ not and end up with a Souf’ Asian woman as your Gubernator!
It was always obvious that McCain would lose for the same reason it is obvious now that Romney will. Each positioned himself as the champion of an extinct (or at any rate endangered) species — the Rockefeller Republican. If you want to win a GOP primary contest in this day and age you need to be a more plausible heir to Ronaldus Magnus than any serious competitor. McCain couldn't do that against Bush and Romney can't do that against Perry.
Perry, in fact, has a much bigger ideological advantage over Romney than Bush had over McCain. There was a serious argument that McCain was the more conservative candidate in 2000. I didn't buy it and neither did the electorate, but it was out there. Any attempt to argue that Romney is to Perry's right is absurd on its face.
As long as there are no other serious candidates on the right, Perry is in the catbird's seat, whatever any poll or commentator might say (and the polls probably aren't ever going to look nearly as bad as the commentary does). Romney could have beaten Bachmann, Cain and Co. But with a serious player to his right, he's toast.
Anyone who doesn't understand that Rick Perry is a serious player, doesn't know the first thing about American politics. There isn't anyone else in the Republican Party who can put together a campaign organization for 2012 to rival Romney's, Perry's a prolific fundraiser and an extraordinarily successful politician.
Embarrassing debates can't finish a guy like that, any more than they finished George W. Bush. Brilliant debates can't elevate someone who isn't a serious player into the top tier. It didn't work that way for Alan Keyes in 2000. It won't work that way for Herman Cain in 2012.
We're stuck with Perry, like it or not, just as we were stuck with Bush. The good news is that Perry seems to be a much better package than Bush was.
At least he didn't go to Yale.
but that’s just it, he hasn’t taken a hit.
The polls have been steady for over a month now with no affect on them what so ever by the 3 debates. If you go look at RCP which shows all the polls taken in the race over the last month you will see that Perry has polled consistantly around 29% +- 2. The only people watching primary debates and following this stuff closely at this point are people like us and people who get paid to follow this stuff.
Palin Position on Immigration
• According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.
• Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.
• She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
It looks to me like Palin is for educating illegals plus giving them many more benefits.
Can he recover? Of course, but if he had a bullseye on him before, he’s really going to have one on him now. This is a circular firing squad, after all. Whichever one rises to the top next knows exactly what is waiting for them. We don’t stop until all ours are wounded.
Do you detect a pattern in your comparisons that suggests the problem is that YOU have a problem with black guys.
Hmm.
I was just asking how we can go about KEEPING THE PERBOT staff aides OUT of this campaign. They've already destroyed two candidates, so why should they get another chance?
Sounds like you are in denial....
Cain is surging. Many polls, such as Zogby, indicate as such, that Perry is closer to 19% and not 29%. Of course not all polls are accurate, by why are you ignoring all the polls that clearly show a Cain surge and Perry decline while promoting only the polls that you favor your preferred candidate?
While it's true that Texas is a "little" different from the rest of the US, please don't blame hapless hard-working Texans for foisting Perry on us.
Perry connived his way into the presidential race----and you get the distinct feeling he connived his way into the governor's seat. That steady stream of illegals pouring into Texas tells us native-born Texans don't have much say in Senor Ricky's unbroken string of re/elections.
CASE IN POINT The Texas Dream Act passed 10 years ago when Perry was desperate for votes---and began a curious unbroken string of election wins.
Perry's been described by some Texans as a kind of a Punxsutawney Phil. When it's time for election he's out there, packing/campaigning in a cowboy hat, pushing all the right Texas buttons. After he's elected, he disappears into his cave until it's time to wake up again.
When he does that disappearing act, big-hearted Rick gets down to the real business of governance----enriching himself.
Senor Ricky gets away with mucho BS in Texas. As one Texas FReeper posted: "I live in Texas. Perry’s an embarrassment......an arrogant jerk who thinks the rest of us are heartless if we don’t agree with giving tax dollars to Illegals.......rather than helping actual Americans." Perry's got a lot of skeletons in his closet.
Any candidate that is stupid enough to fall for it is too stupid to be President because allowing yourself to be manipulated by the stooges in Big News only sets the stage for your Presidency.
Amen.
If some new outlet puts up an online polls on their website, the result is garbage. Straw poll? garbage. Online poll of those signed up to participate? garbage.
The polls done by the news outlets and the dedicated polling operations are usually pretty good, especially the larger ones done of likely voters. Of course, even in those polls you might occasionally get an outlier, which is why you should always look at ALL the polls (the scientific ones) to get a feel for where things really stand.
RCP(real clear politics) does this for you. They don't actually do any polling themselves, they simply take the results from all the “scientific polls” that have been done, list them and show you an average. This is very helpful because it can help smooth out the results of an occasional outlier poll that will sprout up from time to time.
How Sarah Palin Would Tackle Illegal Immigration
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
O'REILLY: So you're president of the United States, Sarah Palin. You send how many National Guard to the border right away to secure it?
SARAH PALIN, FORMER GOVERNOR OF ALASKA: However many you need. This is a top priority. This is a national security issue.
O'REILLY: All right, but I'm talking Texas, California, New Mexico, all of them. So you'd send maybe 10,000, 15,000 National Guard down there to assist the Border Patrol, yes?
PALIN: Whatever it takes. Whatever it takes.
O'REILLY: All right, so you'd militarize the border. You'd finish the fence, finish building the fence from Brownsville to San Diego, yes?
PALIN: Yes.
O'REILLY: Now we have 12 million people staring at you. And you say to those people you're in here illegally; you broke civil law by coming in here. Now are you going to deport them? What are you going to do?
PALIN: Well, again, first, let me go back to the importance of securing the border. They're talking about amnesty…
O'REILLY: No, but we got that, governor. Everybody…
PALIN: No, we don't.
O'REILLY: Yes, the people watching this program have it. We have it. We assume that you, as president, would secure the border. I have confidence that you would do that. But now you have to look inward, all right? And you've got 12 million people staring at you. What are you going to have them do?
PALIN: You're not going to give them a free pass. You're not going to say, OK, you and anybody else who wants to scurry across this porous border between now and when we finally do finally get it fenced in and physically secure, we're going to give you a free pass.
O'REILLY: All right.
PALIN: And just because you've broken law in the past…
O'REILLY: So no amnesty.
PALIN: …we can trust you. No, no amnesty.
O'REILLY: But what do you do with these folks?
PALIN: Which means…
O'REILLY: Do you make them register with the federal government? Do you tell them they have 60 days to get out of here before we put you in jail? What do you do with them?
PALIN: Do we make them register with the federal government? Yes, we do.
O'REILLY: Yes, so we know who they are.
PALIN: We have -- exactly, yes. I want to answer to that question absolutely.
O'REILLY: All right.
PALIN: We're not going to give them a free pass.
O'REILLY: So you make them register with the federal government.
PALIN: We're not going to reward the bad behavior.
O'REILLY: And if they don't register with the -- say you gave them 60 days to register with the federal government. There's a form at the post office they have to send in like a Census form. All right, say they didn't do it.
PALIN: You deport them.
O'REILLY: OK.
PALIN: You have to get them out.
O'REILLY: So the ones that don't…
PALIN: We don't reward their continued bad behavior.
O'REILLY: …after period of time. OK, after a period of time…
PALIN: Yes.
O'REILLY: …the ones that don't cooperate, you catch them, they're gone.
Not really. His attacking conservatives does matter though.
Amen to that!! He will never get my support I will take that kind of vitriol from a Democrat but not from a conservative Republican.
His debate performance doesn’t matter to me. I didn’t want him in the first place. LOL
But the whole notion that the average voter turns off dancing with the stars to watch the republican primary debates to help them decide who to vote for is ludicrous.
It was VERY unpopular and people were almost in revolution mode before it finally died. Same as Gaurdasil. Remember Perry was a Blue Dog Dem before he switched sides to save his skin. It's sorta like a Libertarian. You love them and love them, then they eventually talk about legalizing drugs and losing wars because Washington didn't want foreign entanglements.
western civilization stands at the brink, the entire world monitary system is on the verge of collape... and you REALLY think the voters give a rats behind about the TTC or Gardacil?
ROFL
Why do you have to bring Palin into every Perry thread... we all know how much you hate her... You should put your points in Palin threads instead.
(I am a Palin supporter, btw.... I read the other candidate threads, I just don’t usually say much in them).
Rick Perry’s underwhelming conservatism is what matters.
Yep. And then I read where the Fox folks, prior to the debate, were working so hard on the "gotchas"...even to the point of figuring out which camera should be on which candidate's face, to show the worst/best expressions...
This just sucks...
"Hours before last week’s presidential debate in Orlando, Ailes’s anchors sat in a cavernous back room, hunched over laptops, and plotted how to trap the candidates. Chris Wallace said he would aim squarely at Rick Perry’s weakness: “How do you feel about being criticized by some of your rivals as being too soft on illegal immigration? Then I go to Rick Santorum: is Perry too soft?” “That’s going to get some fireworks going,” said managing editor Bill Sammon, grinning.
When showtime arrived, producer Marty Ryan choreographed the action from a crowded trailer outside the convention hall: he called for a two-shot when Wallace invited Mitt Romney to criticize Perry’s immigration stance, so the audience could watch both men’s agitated expressions. But Ryan barked, “Let’s just be on Perry,” as the Texas governor demanded to know whether Santorum had ever been to the Mexican border, capturing the moment."
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