Skip to comments.How Obama could win if Obamacare loses
Posted on 09/29/2011 10:21:42 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
It may sound counterintuitive, but heres betting that President Obama wouldnt be at all upset if the high court rules that his health plan is unconstitutional.
By urging an expedited review by the U.S. Supreme Court, the president knows that the politics cuts his way. If the court strikes down the plan, then Obama wont have to defend it in the fall campaign, robbing the Republicans of one of their two lines of attack, the other being the moribund economy. He could rally his base by arguing that he had pushed through a great progressive reform only to be foiled by the conservative-leaning Supreme Court. People, like markets, hate uncertainty, and the presumed swing vote by Justice Kennedy could settle the issue.
If Obama wins the judicial appeal, it will still be a win for him along the lines of todays conventional thinking. He will be able to argue that the Administration always knew Obamacare was constitutional, and the expedited review will muffle the issue in the general-election campaign.
The one nightmare scenario for Obama is if the Supremes hear arguments before the election and decide the case after the voting. In that event, the briefs and oral arguments could well inflame the political debate. By asking for a speedy review, the President is evidently hoping to avoid this awkward straddle.
I don't think so.
This commentary is so BS.
It’s basically his only shot, to be honest.
I actually agree with this article. If it gets shot down, 0bama can blame conservatives on the SCOTUS for robbing people of their health care. If it gets shot down, the economy might actually show signs of recovery by the election. Of course, then 0bama would claim that it was his policies and not the decision that was causing any recovery.
If he wins, he claims complete vindication and it becomes almost impossible to repeal.
I think its ridiculous that anyone could even begin to think the individual mandate is Constitutional. The authors of the Constitution didnt think the government could make them buy STAMPS! The notion that they would intend the Constitution to enable the government to make you buy health insurance is absurd.
If what this author writes were indeed to happen, it would show how unbelievably weak the Republican Party is.
ObamaCare has resulted in billions of wasted expenditures thus far and has stifled business from hiring workers.
It is NOT just his beliefs and policies that people don't agree with - ITS HIS JUDGEMENT [OR RATHER, HIS LACK OF SOUND JUDGEMENT] ...
no no no, we can still shout it from the rooftops, they still passed it, it would make his presidency an even bigger failure. How much money did he throw at it, just for it to be tossed out, billions? Theres your line of attack.
The people foolish enough to elect him still think it’s free universal coverage.
When he can blame the Republicans for robbing that from his people, he’ll win a landslide.
Never underestimate the indoctrinated stupidity of the average American voter nowadays.
I have the same feeling. Barry wants to cut his ties to this albatross but wants someone else to take the rap for doing so.
Given his current situation, I think this is a reasonable explanation for him wanting it ruled on now.
But there is a bigger thing. It does somewhat lessen the republican’s push to get him out in order to “overturn” the plan. But it also would put health care back on the table.
The democrats still believe that, on the idea of “reforming health care”, they can win the election battle. They just can’t win defending Obamacare. But if the slate is clear, the election goes back to “who can best FIX the health care bill to acheive the results”.
Since the republicans haven’t put out any plan they will push if they overturn Obamacare, and since there were aspects of Obamacare that are very popular that would immediately be lost (like kids up to 26 on their parent’s (employer-paid) health insurance, and the “no precondition” clauses), that people WILL MISS, and will want to be put back into a law.
I’m not saying it’s a winner for democrats, but it is a much better battlefield for them in 2012 than defending the existing Obamacare program.
“So the Supreme Court strikes down BarryKare and the Republican candidate never mentions that it was an illegal piece of legislation, indicative of the entire Barry presidency? And the voters ignore this decision? “
I agree with the author, Obamacare being ruled illegal would help Obama in a big way.
First, everyone has been touched to some extent by Obamacare already. Most of us are worried about just how much this legislation is going to screw up healthcare, the economy, and our lives in general. This is a big club that a competent GOP nominee could use to great effect. Notice I said competent.
So, imagine Obamacare is ruled illegal. Obama can then make a double pronged attack on the Republicans. First, he can say: It was a wonderful item that would save women, minorities, babies and puppies. It was just too good, and those evil Republicans want to keep you dying in the streets to keep from raising taxes.
Second, he could simply lie about the content of the legislation, and say it would have lowered costs, improved care, and cured the common cold.
In both cases, Pravda would have his back, and the inattentive Americans, (who are numerous), would believe what was being shoveled.
Considering the majority of Americans are more concerned with the economy, the Republicans can still push the issue of why it is a good thing Obamacare is taken down. The costs are outrageous and, as they are arguing now, are part of what is hurting the economy.
Either way, I don’t think Obama can “win”. He’s too far gone, IMO. And there is NO argument that can be made, that will make him look good enough to vote for. If you are not already solidly in his camp, it’s unlikely you can be swayed to go his way again. Just my $.02
“Never underestimate the indoctrinated stupidity of the average American voter nowadays.”
It appears we share the same low opinion of those who did, or would vote Obama.
I’ll take my chances, let’s vote it down ...
The healthcare law is what Obama staked his entire presidency on, and is the only accomplishment he can point to at this point. If the Supreme Court strikes it down, Obama has absolutely nothing to run on other than being the first Black President and the novelty of that has worn off.
If Obamacare is off the table, the wasted trillion-dollar Stimulus is still a mighty big club.
No sorry Obama care is only one small part of his overall problem.The economy is still in the tank and even if by some miracle there did start to be hiring in the 100,000+ a month range it would take 3-4 years for all of those who are unemployed to get work.
First, you don’t smell like a winner if your signature legislative victory gets sent to the recycle bin.
Second, such a win would only energize his base, which is not that many people. The rest of the country is either asleep or strongly against him.
Third, there are many more things that stink about this President than OCare. We’ve got massive debt and out-of-control EPA, Fed, DHS, etc.
Obama spent fours years, billions of dollars, and wrecked the economy on a program that isn't even legal! We can't afford whatever he might have in mind for the next four years!
So if Hillary! is asked to step in if Barry steps down, her history of HillaryKare is only better than his because hers never happened.
This weakens a Hillary presidency push, IMHO.
I can't imagine spewing the irrational garbage they do and believing it.
What a way to earn a paycheck.
It's like this job; well at least they're in show business.
“The Supreme Court could strike down the insurance mandate but leave most of the rest of the statute standing ... “
I’ve heard from more than one source that the way the bill was written, the mandate is not severable. I’m not expert, but I believe it to be true, I think I heard it on Mark Levin’s show, to cite one source.
The law does not have a severability clause, but it is possible that SCOTUS could sever the individual mandate from the rest of the law anyway. Can’t predict what SCOTUS might do.
This idea has failed already.
It's a campaign issue!
Ignored?!! HA HA HA!! Right!
Thant would be a good job for Beckel & Combs, they could be a tag team. . . . .
This Examiner article is written to “stupid conservatives”, at least the liberals think we are so stupid we would buy this “logic”. BO is scared to death of the Supremes spoiling his great Obamacare Plan. Next Obama plan will be to try to “pack the Court” as FDR tried.
Not that it is prohibited from severability, but the whole house of cards is predicated on the fact that the mandate [assuming most people buy the insurance] pays for the rest of the program.
Remove the mandate and the whole thing falls apart ...
BTW: The assumption that most people are gonna purchase the insurance is a fallacy. IF [and that is a BIG if] the mandate is ruled constitutional - I suspect that MOST people are gonna pay the fine [which is about 1/10th the cost].
If that happens - same outcome, the whole thing falls apart [lack of money] ...
Don't forget, there are about 250K of new people trying to enter the workforce each month ...
100K of new hires doesn't even keep you treading water. The only reason that the unemployment figures don't keep going up right now is that the LOW new hire figures are offset by the people who drop out of the UE rolls [due to limits on their UE]. Since they are off the rolls, they don't get counted - but they are STILL unemployed ...