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ANOTHER satellite to crash land soon, and the odds of it hitting someone are even higher
DailyMail.co.uk ^ | 9/30/11 | Ted Thornhill

Posted on 10/01/2011 1:29:05 PM PDT by Evil Slayer

The world was gripped by the Nasa UARS satellite that fell back to Earth last Saturday – and now there’s another that’s plummeting back from orbit.

In late October or early November a Germany astronomy satellite – called ROSAT- will plunge uncontrolled back to Earth.

While slightly smaller than UARS, the German satellite is expected to have more pieces survive re-entry. The German space agency estimated that it has a 1-in-2000 chance of hitting someone - higher than the 1-in-3,200 odds NASA gave for UARS.

The German ROSAT satellite was launched in 1990, 'died' in 1998 and weighs two and a half tonnes.

The German space agency estimates that 30 pieces weighing less than two tons will survive re-entry. Debris may include sharp mirror shards.

The German space agency puts the odds of somebody somewhere on Earth being hurt by its satellite at 1-in-2,000 — a slightly higher level of risk than was calculated for the Nasa satellite.

Again, it seems certain that information on when - or where - the satellite might land will be scant.

But any one individual's odds of being struck are 1-in-14trillion.

Heiner Klinkrad, head of the Space Debris Office at the European Space Agency, said in a webcast posted on the German Aerospace Center's website: ‘It is not possible to accurately predict ROSAT's re-entry.

‘The uncertainty will decrease as the moment of re-entry approaches. It will not be possible to make any kind of reliable forecast about where the satellite will actually come down until about one or two hours before the fact.’

Experts believe that two dozen metal pieces from the bus-sized Nasa satellite fell over a 500-mile span in the Pacific Ocean.

It began hitting the water southwest of Christmas Island.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Technical
KEYWORDS: astronomysatellite; germansatellite; rosat

1 posted on 10/01/2011 1:29:11 PM PDT by Evil Slayer
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To: Evil Slayer

2 posted on 10/01/2011 1:32:49 PM PDT by trumandogz
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To: Evil Slayer

3 posted on 10/01/2011 1:35:56 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: trumandogz

4 posted on 10/01/2011 1:38:08 PM PDT by Zuben Elgenubi
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To: Evil Slayer

the Germans just build stuff better...that’s why more pieces will survive reentry.


5 posted on 10/01/2011 1:42:06 PM PDT by stefanbatory (Insert witty tagline here)
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To: Evil Slayer
Did the satellite originally have some self-maneuvering capability? If so, why not leave some juice available to bring it down with a modicum of control?

There will always be comm problems and things like that, but the satellite end of life and deorbit should also be part of the design.

Just an old country boy that is still amazed at what we do in space. /smile

6 posted on 10/01/2011 1:48:47 PM PDT by ken in texas (Can't Afford a Tagline... send money.)
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To: Evil Slayer

Ach du lieber!!!


7 posted on 10/01/2011 1:50:45 PM PDT by Chi-townChief
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To: Evil Slayer
The German space agency puts the odds of somebody somewhere on Earth being hurt by its satellite at 1-in-2,000... But any one individual's odds of being struck are 1-in-14trillion.

Do these numbers seem incompatibly to anyone else?

8 posted on 10/01/2011 1:51:48 PM PDT by GOPJ
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To: ken in texas
I'm surprised the government hasn't required that on all space bound vehicles. Sort of like the seat belt requirement law.
9 posted on 10/01/2011 1:52:24 PM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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To: GOPJ

7 billion in world times 2000 = 14 trillion.


10 posted on 10/01/2011 1:55:49 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: ken in texas

Message to Ted Thornhill: If an event is more likely to happen, THE ODDS ARE LOWER.....

Less likely to occur, ODDS ARE HIGHER........

Stay away from Vegas, Teddy Boy!


11 posted on 10/01/2011 1:56:12 PM PDT by outhousepatrol
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To: ken in texas
There will always be comm problems and things like that, but the satellite end of life and deorbit should also be part of the design.

That is true for newer satellites. This must be an older one.

12 posted on 10/01/2011 1:57:06 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (I like both Perry and Palin, and will vote for whichever of them wins.)
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To: Evil Slayer
Not again!
13 posted on 10/01/2011 2:00:37 PM PDT by luigi
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To: stefanbatory

good point..


14 posted on 10/01/2011 2:06:33 PM PDT by brivette
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To: Chi-townChief

“Ach du lieber!!!”

Ist das nicht ein Satellit?

Ja! Das ist ein Satellit!”


15 posted on 10/01/2011 2:12:44 PM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: Raycpa; GOPJ

Actually, it’s probably more complicated than that, because there’s no reason that just one person is hit, in that one in 2,000 chance event.

Just to illustrate what I mean, suppose that the odds of a second person being hit, at the same time, are 1 in 5. That would increase the chance of any particular individual being hit, by about 20% — to about one in 11.2 trillion. There is also some (small) chance that a chunk would take out (say) an airliner — thus further increasing the chance of an individual getting killed by the debris (even if not directly hit).


16 posted on 10/01/2011 2:12:51 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: Cyber Liberty
That is true for newer satellites. This must be an older one.

Thanks for the info update. I was a lot younger when Sputnik was launched. At that time I suspect very few people expected that what we now have in orbit could become a reality.

17 posted on 10/01/2011 2:14:53 PM PDT by ken in texas (Can't Afford a Tagline... send money.)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

I agree that the odds seem to be based on an even distribution of population when we are in fact clustered. So that if one person is hit its likely that others would be hit.

However, if the number was adjusted to for clusters the chances of one person getting hit would be lower but the chances of multiple people getting hit from one debris would increase. I’m not enough of a math person to say the corrections would make the odds the same but my instincts tell me they would be near enough that the correct answer would be materially the same.


18 posted on 10/01/2011 2:22:45 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Evil Slayer

The world was gripped??

I wasn’t gripped.

Was anone else gripped? Did anyone go to their basment?


19 posted on 10/01/2011 2:23:11 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: Evil Slayer

The picture of the satellite in post #1 makes it look like an air conditioning unit with wings and a jet engine.


20 posted on 10/01/2011 3:29:09 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (My greatest fear is that when I'm gone my wife will sell my guns for what I told her I paid for them)
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To: Inyo-Mono

I thought it looked like NOMAD from the original Star Trek, lol.


21 posted on 10/01/2011 3:37:50 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: GOPJ
Do these numbers seem incompatibly to anyone else?

No considering the last one destroyed my storage shed...........

22 posted on 10/01/2011 3:41:03 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (ui)
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Happy thought:

How would the lamestream media report it if the pieces only hit Planned Parenthood Clinics?


23 posted on 10/01/2011 3:59:21 PM PDT by Petruchio (I Think . . . Therefor I FReep.)
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To: Evil Slayer

My first choice is Mecca! Come on baby, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes! But I’ll settle for Tehran!


24 posted on 10/01/2011 4:01:14 PM PDT by Doc Savage ("I've shot people I like a lot more,...for a lot less!" Raylan Givins)
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To: Evil Slayer
This is excellent news for at least two reasons.

First, amateur astronomers will have something to look at. I must admit that I was looking for UARS since its path went over CA. I saw nothing, unfortunately (except an airplane - it was looking promising initially.)

Second, the dead satellite will safely deorbit itself. We don't need junk in orbit - we already have too much of it up there.

The probability of damage on the surface is near zero. Earth is bombarded by meteors all the time, day and night. One more or one less won't change the statistics. Most of Earth's surface is ocean, and most of land is not populated. We have more people killed in car accidents in one day than people killed by falling space debris for the entire recorded history.

25 posted on 10/01/2011 4:15:37 PM PDT by Greysard
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To: Raycpa

It will not come down in one piece. So you have a better chance to be hit by one of several pieces. Also from the last thread the orbit will keep it from fall near the north or south poles. Polar bears and penguins are safe unless they are held captive in a zoo.


26 posted on 10/01/2011 4:27:20 PM PDT by ThomasThomas ( Congressmen should wear uniforms like NASCAR drivers, so we can identify their corporate sponsors.)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

A picture is truly worth a thousand words.


27 posted on 10/01/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by Del Rapier
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To: Dr. Bogus Pachysandra
“Ach du lieber!!!”

Ist das nicht ein Satellit?

Ja! Das ist ein Satellit!”

Heilige Scheiße!

28 posted on 10/01/2011 7:02:55 PM PDT by maine-iac7 (ALWAYS WATCH THE OTHER HAND)
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To: luigi

That is hilarious!!


29 posted on 10/01/2011 7:59:05 PM PDT by WePledge (Ich werde fur immer ein Hollenhund werden. Semper Fidelis)
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To: Evil Slayer

Are we going to have a live thread on this? The reason I ask is because it looks like it might be dropping out of the sky this weekend.

http://www.space.com/13353-falling-german-satellite-rosat-weekend-crash.html

The 2.7-ton Roentgen Satellite, or ROSAT, will likely plummet to Earth on Saturday or Sunday (Oct. 22 or 23), according to the latest update from the German Aerospace Center.

“Currently, the re-entry date can only be calculated to within plus/minus one day,” agency officials said in a statement. “This time slot of uncertainty will be reduced as the date of re-entry approaches. However, even one day before re-entry, the estimate will only be accurate to within plus/minus five hours.”


30 posted on 10/21/2011 4:49:26 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Evil Slayer

Satellite tracking of ROSAT.
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=20638


31 posted on 10/21/2011 4:50:20 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2796177/posts


32 posted on 10/21/2011 7:03:29 PM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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