Skip to comments.Erdogan playing with fire
Posted on 10/02/2011 10:25:49 AM PDT by jhpigott
Op-ed: Turkeys recent military moves, rhetoric have shifted from cursing to war games
Alex Fishman Published: 10.02.11, 18:15 / Israel Opinion
The Turks are playing with fire. It appears that Turkeys Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is crossing the fine line between verbal escalation coupled with a diplomatic fight against Israel and the facilitation of military confrontation. This man, whom everyone believed was engaged in methodical, well-planned anti-Israel conduct with clear aims, is starting to go with his gut. The psychiatric aspects in the Israel-Turkey crisis are starting to overcome logic.
Over the holiday, the Turks published a report about what they characterized as Israeli military provocation. They claimed that Israeli fighter jets hovered above the Turkish Navys taskforce securing the gas drills planned by Turkey near Cyprus. The IDF denied the report, but it makes no difference. This is the message the Turks convey: Physical friction exists between Israel and us.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials are starting to monitor Turkish naval moves in the Mediterranean with special attention. A few weeks ago, a medium-sized Turkish battleship sailed in the Mediterraneans eastern basin, from north to south, taking the same route as the Marmara did while moving abnormally close to Israels shores. While the ship did not enter Israels territorial waters, it sailed in ranges where military vessels usually update friendly states about their presence in order to avoid misunderstandings.
This set off alarm bells in Israel: Could it be that Erdogan, using the Turkish Navy, is checking Israels alertness and conduct?
On September 20th, a Turkish Navy taskforces sailed to the drill site near Cyprus. The force comprised frigates, missile boats, a supply ship, a tugboat, and apparently two submarines as well. This did not look like a security presence, but rather, as a force heading towards hostile states such as Cyprus, Greece and possibly Israel as well.
US warnings, Erdogans hubris
Generally speaking, Turkey has boosted its operations in the Mediterranean theater, both in the air and at sea, for no reason and without any perceptible strategic threat. The flights performed by the Turkish Air Force in the region are different than what we saw in the past.
A senior Turkish Foreign Ministry official recently summoned Arab ambassadors in Ankara and boasted about scrambling jets on several occasions and chasing away Israeli fighter jets flying near Syrias shores. Regardless of whether these are half-truths or fantasy, one thing is clear: Turkish rhetoric has shifted from cursing to war games.
These games could end up badly. Senior NATO officials pled with their Turkish counterparts, deploring them to stop playing with fire. The Turkish officers responded that as far as it depends on them, there will be no military clash. However, Turkeys military leaders are scared of Erdogan. Turkeys public sphere is also different than Israels, and Erdogans acts and conduct are not transparent and are not under constant scrutiny. He can feel quite confident in the face of domestic public opinion which in any case perceives Israel as an insane state that goes with its gut.
The Americans are also warning the Turks: Should you continue playing these games, you could end up losing a ship. However, Erdogans hubris is leading to military escalation.
Under such circumstances, Erdogan should not be surprised to see a Turkish or Israeli pilot, who suddenly feel threatened, pressing the button and firing the missile. The distance between provocation and a regional flare-up could be several seconds long. So who will be stopping Erodgan?
Senior NATO officials pled with their Turkish counterparts, deploring them to stop playing with fire.
The Turkish officers responded that as far as it depends on them, there will be no military clash.
erdogan’s intent were plain in the 2004 or 5 cover nyt mag that pictured him and his wife, she with her head covered.
Turkey is trying to reinstate the Ottoman Empire on a volunteer basis by getting to Arab states to look to Turkey as a military savior from Israel.
The Islamists have taken over Turkey and are using Islam as a reunifying cry. The Palastinians mean nothing to most Turks, they are only a way to stick a thorn in Israel and highlight the growing anti-semantic feeling in Europe, and elsewhere.
The fact that Turkey has not been already booted from NATO is telling as they are playing with fire that will eventually burn someone. They have betrayed us & the West and why that remain in NATO can only be to destabilize the Western powers.
As the West continues to kiss Islamic ass, and reward them for hating us, this will continue to be a problem, as almost the whole Western Civilization is on the verge of a mighty economic collapse, which will probably trigger the start of a war of us from Islam both within and out.
As our economies continue to weaken, we will not have the money to assist Israel and protect ourselves, as we increasingly pull back home. The fact that a large fifth-column of illegals and Islam is already here will mean even that will not help.
Illegals here will continue to destroy us from within as well as pandering to them and every other PC notion of surrender. Its going to be a bumpy ride folks. October is here and the stock market is weak as well as most of the world economies. The Euro is practically dead and is only going by kiting future checks to create fake money to try to stem the flow. It will fail to achieve this goal eventually annd the dominoes will fall.
War games and rhetoric. Pretty soon, Turkey will liberate Syria from the Zionist. The rhetoric will increase then, until Turkey establishes full control over Syria . . ., so that the Zionists can’t take Damascus.
"The psychiatric aspects in the Israel-Turkey crisis are starting to overcome logic. "
As I have been saying, Erdogan really is crazy. There's no other explanation I can discern.
Crazy guy with a formidable military and a decapitated military leadership - not a good recipe
The Russians have a couple of subs there. They are siding with Cyprus and we have assets nearby. Turkey is alone on this one and likely to get stung hard. This Erdogan is a bat-poop crazy fool.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
While I doubt Erdogan want's a military confrontation, this may not end well.
I hope you don't take offense if I contend.
While Turkey has a formidable ARMY, it's only as good as what air support it can achieve. Such is the nature of modern land warfare.
The Turk Air Force is mediocre...their technology being F-16 Block 30/40/50 as it's foundation. To boot, most of those were manufactured in Turkey under license and have inferior avoionics and weapons systems.
Thier Navy, while formidable by European standards is, again, outdated. The have about 18 T-209 subs...but they too were mostly manufactured in Turkey and reputedly spend far more time in port/maintenance than at sea. Their 15 or so OHP Frigates have some good Weapons systems but also spend much of their time in port.
Assuming the nut is serious, he could probably put up 150 F-16s and put to sea 10 boats and 8 or 9 frigates.
Formidable for an Islamic country, but weak considering his potential adversaries in the eastern Med.
If he could cover his Army with a good Air Force, he would be dangerous.
“formidable” may have been a little generous ;)
He could certainly make life uncomfortable for the Greeks and Cypriots minus any outside intervention. There is already a decent Turkish military footprint in N. Cyprus.
Whatever Erdogan’s plans are, he is evidently trying to see how far he can push the envelope. Beyond that - you got me?
He will lose his AF and Navy in quick order if the Israelis, US or Russians get involved.
This man, whom everyone believed was engaged in methodical, well-planned anti-Israel conduct with clear aims, is starting to go with his gut. The psychiatric aspects in the Israel-Turkey crisis are starting to overcome logic.