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Outward Bound New Yorkers (Where most of them went in the past 10 years)
Empire Center for New York State Policy ^ | 10/03/2011 | E.J. McMahon and Robert Scardamalia

Posted on 10/03/2011 9:46:10 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

As the exodus of taxpayers from the Empire State1 continued during the past decade, which other states gained the most at New York’s expense? And how were migration patterns affected by changing economic conditions?

 

This paper, second in a series on New York population trends, uses the latest available Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data to answer those questions.  Our key findings include the following:

 

 

 

Taxpayer Migration

 

The IRS records the movement of taxpayers and their dependents, based on year-to-year changes in the addresses shown on individual tax returns.  While this excludes persons who don’t file tax returns in the year before or after they move, it measures about 90 percent of migration counted by the U.S. Census.2

 

As shown in Table 1, nearly 1.2 million taxpayers and their dependents moved from New York to other states between 2000 and 2009. Florida was the most common destination, followed by New Jersey, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, in that order. However, as the economy slowed in the second half of the decade, so did migration.

 

The drop in net moves from New York to Florida was especially large. In 2005, with migration at its peak, the IRS data indicated New York lost nearly four residents to Florida for every Floridian who moved in the reverse direction. Four years later, in the depths of a recession that was especially severe in the Sunshine State, the number of New Yorkers moving to Florida had dropped by more than half (from 85,619 to 41,371). Meanwhile, the number of Floridians moving to New York increased by 45 percent (from 23,019 to 33,345), reducing the outmigration ratio to 1.24 out-migrants for every in-migrant. By 2009, New York’s net migration loss to North Carolina was larger than its loss to Florida for the first time on record.

 

As shown in Table 2, the migration pattern to other states was not uniform among different New York regions. While just over half the net migration flow from the New York City metropolitan region was headed South, nearly 40 percent of the taxpayers lost by that region moved to other states in the northeast, mainly neighboring New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.  The net migration flow from upstate regions overwhelmingly favored the South and West, with fewer headed to New York’s neighbors. This tendency was most pronounced in the Albany region, which lost taxpayers almost entirely to the South and West.

 

 

Taxpayer moves within New York

 

As detailed in Table 3, the migration of taxpayers and their dependents within New York City reflects long-standing population flows from Manhattan to outer boroughs, from Brooklyn to Staten Island, and from all five boroughs—especially Queens—to suburban counties.  Roughly 94 percent of the intrastate New York taxpayer-migrants from New York City stayed within the region, moving to either Long Island or the lower Hudson Valley.

 

New York City also lost a net 16,182 taxpayer-migrants to upstate New York regions, and 566,037 taxpayer-migrants to other states. The New York City region as a whole, including the suburban counties, lost 92,630 taxpayers and their dependents to upstate New York, which in turn lost 491,890 taxpayer-migrants to the rest of the country.  The region-by-region breakdown is shown in Table 3a.

 

Moving Money

 

The IRS data also provide adjusted gross incomes for migrating individuals and households in the year they move. Measured on this basis, migrants from New York had incomes about $3.3 billion higher than migrants to New York in 2009, down from a peak of $5.3 billion for migrants in 2005.

 

 

As shown in Table 4, below, New York’s annual net income losses from 2000 through 2009 totaled nearly $37 billion. Incomes change over time, so this does not necessarily mean New York was $37 billion worse off at the end of the period than it would have been if no moves had occurred during this period. At the very least, however, the average incomes of migrating taxpayers reflect New York’s ongoing loss of earning power – and, in many cases, job skills -- to other states.

 

 

From 2001 to 2009, New York State’s greatest annual net income losses, like its greatest population losses, were to Florida and New Jersey, in that order.  But Connecticut, the sixth most popular destination state for net migration of individual New Yorkers, ranked third in its net income gain from New York. Conversely, Pennsylvania ranks third in the number of people gained at New York’s expense, but fifth in its net income gain from migrating New Yorkers.

 

Incomes In, Incomes Out

 

The average adjusted gross income of taxpaying households leaving New York between 2008 and 2009 was $58,899, while the average income of households moving into New York was $48,432—a difference of 22 percent.  Non-migrating New York households as of 2009 had an average income of $63,630.

 

A county-by-county breakdown of average incomes for interstate migrants to and from New York is presented in Table 5 on page 7.   As shown, in 16 of New York’s 62 counties, the average income differential was the reverse of the statewide average; i.e., in these counties, the average incomes of in-migrants from other states were roughly equivalent to or exceeded the average incomes of out-migrants to other states.   Higher or roughly equivalent in-migrant incomes were concentrated in less populous, rural upstate counties. 

 

The average income differentials for out-migrants matched or exceeded the statewide average in New York City, Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley suburbs, as well as in all of the most urbanized and populous upstate counties (except for Onondaga County, which includes Syracuse).  The largest differential in absolute terms was in New York County (the borough of Manhattan), where the average out-migrant income of $98,637 was 36 percent higher than the in-migrant average of $72,293.   The percentage differentials between out-migrants and in-migrants were even higher in the rest of the city.

 

Turning to a state-level comparison, as detailed in Table 6 on page 8, migrants from New York had higher average incomes than migrants to New York in 42 out of 50 states between 2008 and 2009.  New Yorkers migrating to New Jersey, the most common destination state, had incomes $10,579 higher than the smaller number making the reverse move.  The differential was $23,751 among New York migrants to and from Connecticut, which also attracted the most affluent New Yorkers, on average.

 

The average income data for migrants to and from New York reflect the same pattern as the aggregate income and population data: southeastern states, and neighboring Connecticut and New Jersey, have been the biggest net beneficiaries of the Empire State’s losses—which can be traced largely to the New York City metropolitan region. 

 

As detailed in Table 6 on page 8, the IRS data show that 177,505 federal tax returns were filed by former New Yorkers who had moved to other states in 2009, and 148,733 returns were filed by households that moved into New York from other states that year.

 

 

 


Endnotes:

1E.J. McMahon and Robert Scardamalia, “Empire State’s Half-Century Exodus: A Population Migration Overview,” Empire Center Research Bulletin, No. 6.1, August 2011.

2For further background on how the Census Bureau computes migration for its American Community Survey, see Thibaudeau, Yves (2001), “Can We Ignore the Migration of Income Tax Non-Filers When Benchmarking the American Community Survey’s County Estimates?” U.S. Census Bureau, at www.fcsm.gov/01papers/Thibaudeau.pdf



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: New York
KEYWORDS: exodus; newyork
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1 posted on 10/03/2011 9:46:16 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

So, the bumper sticker is right:

Florida - Where America goes to die.


2 posted on 10/03/2011 9:50:30 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would love to see the same analysis for California. After being born and led my entire life there I am moving to Texas.

I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state. People will vote with their feet and wallets, no matter how NY and CA would like to believe otherwise.


3 posted on 10/03/2011 9:50:50 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (Herman Cain 2012 -- the man we need at the time we need him)
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To: SeekAndFind
which other states gained the most at New York’s expense

I wouldn't call getting a load of New Yorkers a gain. These are the people who vote for liberal politicians, think liberal, act liberal, approve of liberal policies, and then wonder why their taxes go through the roof and their incomes go into the toilet. They sh!t where they ate and then moved on to ruin new places like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. (You can't ruin New Jersey and Pennsylvania)

4 posted on 10/03/2011 9:53:12 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind
which other states gained the most at New York’s expense

I wouldn't call getting a load of New Yorkers a gain. These are the people who vote for liberal politicians, think liberal, act liberal, approve of liberal policies, and then wonder why their taxes go through the roof and their incomes go into the toilet. They sh!t where they ate and then moved on to ruin new places like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. (You can't ruin New Jersey and Pennsylvania)

5 posted on 10/03/2011 9:56:56 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yeah. We got a ton of New Yorkers here in Eastern PA over the last ten years. Long Island accents and stupid liberal mentality. Luckily they don’t blend in so you can pick ‘em out easily.


6 posted on 10/03/2011 9:57:47 AM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: freedumb2003

The way I look at the outflow from Michigan is that its providing an opportunity to fix things. Sure we have one less congressional seat overall but we picked up two GOP seats as well as seized rock solid control of state government. Even John Conyers is going to be forced into a fight to keep his seat.

Cutting some 30,000 college kids off foodstamps and imposing limits on welfare will drive quite a few more out of the state as well.

Those of us with “sticktoitiveness” will be ready to make some money as things get better.


7 posted on 10/03/2011 10:01:49 AM PDT by cripplecreek (MLB Playoff thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2786167/posts)
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To: cuban leaf

Florida—God’s waiting room


8 posted on 10/03/2011 10:04:29 AM PDT by kabar
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To: freedumb2003
I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state.

Not true. PA does have a State Income Tax, currently pegged at around 3%. Our advantage though is that our State Constitution prohibits making it "progressive". You pay the same flat tax whether you make $10,000 per year or $30 million. Where you get screwed here is by your local yocals.
9 posted on 10/03/2011 10:04:29 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind
It would be nice to see this by age and income. Most young people leave New York because there are few jobs and opportunities for achievement. Many people leave when they retire to find an area with a better quality of life.

The study doesn't include Porto Ricans, Dominicans and others from outside the 50 states. That would also be interesting to see.

10 posted on 10/03/2011 10:04:31 AM PDT by detective
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To: freedumb2003

Someone had the kindness to correct me and the class to do it privately.

PA does have an income tax (I wonder where I got the idea they didn’t? Probably because I worked there and they didn’t tax me for some reason).

It is pretty low — 3.07% flat from what I could find using mt Google-fu.

I stand corrected and I earned something today!!


11 posted on 10/03/2011 10:05:26 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (Herman Cain 2012 -- the man we need at the time we need him)
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To: detective

New York State is NOT losing population though.

Immigrants still come to New York ( a lot from Asia ) to replace those who have left.

For those who want to know how Taiwan, Hongkong or Korea looks like, just come to Flushing, NY in the borroagh of Queens. You ‘ll be hard pressed to find a Caucasian there.


12 posted on 10/03/2011 10:06:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: cuban leaf
one good came out of the slower economy. Less yankee liberals moved south and to my state. Now if only those same yankee liberals would move back to NY, MA, RI, PA, CT, NJ, MD, ME, VT,OH
13 posted on 10/03/2011 10:08:07 AM PDT by manc (Marriage=1man+ 1 woman, Don't speak up, be a coward and the family, military etc will be destroyed)
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To: detective

>>Most young people leave New York because there are few jobs and opportunities for achievement. Many people leave when they retire to find an area with a better quality of life.<<

One of the charts appeared to list by net income inflow/outflow and, if I read it right, there has been a $36 Billion dollar outflow — so it looks like the income is leaving as well, not just the job seekers.


14 posted on 10/03/2011 10:08:07 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (Herman Cain 2012 -- the man we need at the time we need him)
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To: from occupied ga

nail on head

The slow economy stopped many of them coming down here now I hope those who bought houses down here and are yankee liberals move back up north to the hell hole they first created due to their ignorant voting ways


15 posted on 10/03/2011 10:09:39 AM PDT by manc (Marriage=1man+ 1 woman, Don't speak up, be a coward and the family, military etc will be destroyed)
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To: Lazlo in PA; from occupied ga
I live in NY. I am NOT a liberal with a Long Island accent. I'm sure many who are moving out of NY are like my family. Conservatives or republicans wanting to get out of the never ending taxes and liberal rat policies. Suffolk County, Long Island was a republican strong hold when I grew up. My family and I are contemplating moving. We worry from hearing stories from others about how some people in other states treat New Yorkers poorly. Narrow-minded would do this.

There are a lot of liberal states out there with Conservatives and Republicans living in them. Not just NY. To put everyone in NY in the category as liberal is so very wrong!

16 posted on 10/03/2011 10:10:51 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: Buckeye McFrog

I corrected myself upthread :)


17 posted on 10/03/2011 10:10:56 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (Herman Cain 2012 -- the man we need at the time we need him)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

What makes PA different from NY is this -— PA’s greenies are not as strong as those in NY.

Your natural gas industry is flourishing with thousands upon thousands of jobs being added due to allowing hydrofracking on your side of the Marcellus Shale.

We here in NY on the other hand are still waiting for approval. We’ve studied the issue to death and found it to be quite safe ( heck PA, already proved it ). But guess what is being proposed? You guessed it — ANOTHER ENVIRONMENTAL STUDY!!


18 posted on 10/03/2011 10:11:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: freedumb2003

I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state....Ahem. You are wrong about that. We have an income tax and the highest gas tax, etc. you can find. And yes, we have a “non-income” tax. If you and your wife (or kids or your goat) have a shared checking account, savings account or IRA, the state takes 30% shortly after they bury her, you or kids.


19 posted on 10/03/2011 10:12:20 AM PDT by Safetgiver (I'd rather die under a free American sky than live under a Socialist regime.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Registered communists, socialists, and democrats moving from the northeast to other states should not be allowed to vote in state elections for at least ten years, if ever. It’s the same thing as allowing people with a communicable disease to relocate and infect the host population.

/sarcasm off


20 posted on 10/03/2011 10:14:02 AM PDT by Iron Munro (Obama/Rangel/Pelosi Code of Ethics: Don’t do as I do. Do as I say.)
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To: GodBlessUSA
To put everyone in NY in the category as liberal is so very wrong!

I just call 'em like I see them. In my area, we have these folks from NY and NJ who moved here to get away from the high taxes and mess they lived in only to vote for Libs that will give them all the services and strip malls that make things as crappy here as they were there.

21 posted on 10/03/2011 10:18:27 AM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: SeekAndFind
There was a reason the No.7 was known as the “Orient Express” (it may still be called that for all I know)
The ride would also include parts of India, Pakistan, the Caribbean, Central and South America.
22 posted on 10/03/2011 10:18:45 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: SeekAndFind

When Fracking is safe enough to do near NY City’s water supply, then they can do it in the rest of the state. Apparently it isn’t, because they won’t let them do it.


23 posted on 10/03/2011 10:22:41 AM PDT by toothless_elk
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To: SeekAndFind

There is really no point to living in NY unless you make at least $200K. Taxes and living conditions are dreadful. But if you have high skills and can put up with it, there is the possibility to make amazing amounts of money.

Then, when you retire, you can move out and take it all with you.


24 posted on 10/03/2011 10:23:29 AM PDT by proxy_user
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To: GodBlessUSA

Been there done that. Where ever you decide to move, just be yourself and you’ll get along just fine. If you are conservative and self-reliant, any new state would be lucky to get you.

When I got out of the military, I decided to remain in Texas. It was the best decision I ever made. I lost my NY accent many years ago, so some people might think I am a “yankee”, but I have never been treated badly for it.

My buddy who comes to visit me every year says he loves it down here. He sounds like a refugee from a bad gangster movie, but gets along just fine with locals.


25 posted on 10/03/2011 10:29:30 AM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: GodBlessUSA

So long as you don’t bring NY with you, you’ll do fine.

I made the move from north Queens to rural WV in ‘02. You can’t find a place more clanish, but I’m doing OK. I get a kick out of it when people say, “You’re not like a New Yorker.” I usually reply with a smile, “Oh? How many have you known?” That usually gets a chuckle.


26 posted on 10/03/2011 10:30:02 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: toothless_elk

So why isn’t fracking affecting PA’s water supply?


27 posted on 10/03/2011 10:32:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: Roccus

RE: I made the move from north Queens to rural WV in ‘02.

So, is John Denver’s Country Roads song about WV accurate? Is it “Almost Heaven”?


28 posted on 10/03/2011 10:34:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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29 posted on 10/03/2011 10:36:44 AM PDT by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: SeekAndFind

WOW! Good find....


30 posted on 10/03/2011 10:41:29 AM PDT by The Mayor ("If you can't make them see the light, let them feel the heat" — Ronald Reagan)
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To: GodBlessUSA
I live in NY. I am NOT a liberal with a Long Island accent

Just going by the statistics. Not to imply EVERYONE who lives there is a liberal, just most. Going by the last presidential election 0bama 62% McLame 36% NY is a pretty liberal place; only DC at 92% for 0 (who the hell gave them the vote) Vermont, Hawaii and Rhode Island voted with a higher percentage for the Marxist candidate. Even MA voted a fraction of a percent lower for 0 than NY.

Actually having lived in NY both upstate and the Bronx, I'd say that New Yorkers treat people from other states more poorly than the other way around.

31 posted on 10/03/2011 10:41:55 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

Been that way for me. The land is beautiful and the fishing is good....so’s the hunting, but the years are starting to put a crimp on that.


32 posted on 10/03/2011 10:44:10 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: 3Fingas
Thanks! :) Texas is a wonderful place to live, that's for sure.

It's too bad liberals have ruined Long Island. It's a beautiful place to live.
33 posted on 10/03/2011 10:47:16 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: GodBlessUSA; 3Fingas

RE: It’s too bad liberals have ruined Long Island. It’s a beautiful place to live.

Believe me, i am a Long Islander and it is still a great place to live with lots of parks, good schools and safe neighborhoods.

ONE MAJOR PROBLEM : PROPERTY TAXES ARE ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE COUNTRY. FIX THAT and Long Island becomes a great place to live once again.


34 posted on 10/03/2011 10:57:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree! :) That is the main problem and gas/electric prices.


35 posted on 10/03/2011 10:59:33 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: SeekAndFind
PROPERTY TAXES ARE ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE COUNTRY.

And sales tax and state income tax

Long Island becomes a great place to live once again

Not until you get rid of idiots who vote mini-tyrants like Carolyn McCarthy into office.

36 posted on 10/03/2011 11:00:13 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind; toothless_elk; Clemenza
So why isn’t fracking affecting PA’s water supply?

It isn't. It's just envirowhacko's posturing to gin up irrational fears. Fracking had been used for decades in Texas and the Gulf Coast. Most of the formations being fracked are thousands of feet below fresh water aquifers used for sources of drinking water. In fact they are thousands of feet below formations that are used for permanent disposal of liquid hazardous waste.

38 posted on 10/03/2011 11:05:18 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: SeekAndFind

I wish they’d stop coming to Richmond, VA. I’m in Real Estate and everytime a New Yorker whines about NY taxes and says, “that’s why we’re here”, I see an Obama sticker, Clinton sticker etc on their car. They just pollute every city with their shi&&y voting habits.


39 posted on 10/03/2011 11:05:18 AM PDT by albie
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To: Roccus
There was a reason the No.7 was known as the “Orient Express”
It still stops at the Citi Field Cemetery.

40 posted on 10/03/2011 11:07:39 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: from occupied ga

Unfortunate, you have seen people treated poorly. I have never seen anyone, where I live, be treated poorly from not being from NY. There is no debate from me about how liberal NY state is. I think that is why most leave. It does get frustrating always seeing NY painted in such broad strokes.


41 posted on 10/03/2011 11:13:20 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: GodBlessUSA

There are many things I miss about N.Y/Long Island. I miss being 10 minutes from the beach. I miss good Pizza. You can’t find a good Pizza down here to save your life. I miss the N.Y. Mets. However, the positives of living in Texas greatly outweigh the few negatives.

N.Y. has changed into an unrecognizable place from the days of my childhood. When I was a kid, the local high school in N.Y had a rifle team which actually allowed kids to carry their .22 rifles to and from school — that blows many people’s minds when you tell them that today. People back then may have been Democrats, but they were hard-working, blue collar, patriotic Americans — not the sissy-boy, brain-washed Marxists who predominate in N.Y. politics today.

I was a young campaign worker for Ronald Reagan in 1984. Reagan actually won N.Y handily that year. My how things have changed for the worse.

Anyhow, get out of N.Y. while you can. America still exists out here in “fly-over” country. Perhaps, one day N.Y. can be “liberated” from enemy occupation, but I would not count on that happening any day soon. LOL.


42 posted on 10/03/2011 11:14:10 AM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: oh8eleven

LOL!!


43 posted on 10/03/2011 11:14:55 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: Roccus
LOL. This is encouraging to hear. You made a great move :)
44 posted on 10/03/2011 11:18:42 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: GodBlessUSA

Remember the signs?

Get Out Of New York While You Still Can
............Save The OBI...............

};^)


45 posted on 10/03/2011 11:19:36 AM PDT by Roccus (Obama & Holder LLP, Procurers of fine arms to the most discerning drug lords (202) 456-1414)
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To: 3Fingas
I miss being 10 minutes from the beach.

Move to Brownsville.

46 posted on 10/03/2011 11:21:55 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: from occupied ga

Never been to Brownsville. I do like Port Aransas though.

No, relocation to the coast is not gonna happen for job and other considerations.

I would like to permanently move to the hill country, but the commute to work would be prohibitive. Perhaps, when I retire.


47 posted on 10/03/2011 11:27:36 AM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: 3Fingas
Brownsville

I spent a weekend in July there once. Hottest place I think I've ever been, but it is in Texas and it is on the coast.

48 posted on 10/03/2011 11:33:13 AM PDT by from occupied ga (your own government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: 3Fingas
Yes, I remember President Reagan winning NY. I had just turned 18 and could vote for the first time. That was the best first time vote! :)

It has changed here in many ways like that. Yes, I will definitely miss pizza and the bagels. :)

As you said, it's not changing any time soon. It's tough, with economy now, looking for jobs in other states. It will happen some day. Would love to live in a Red State!
49 posted on 10/03/2011 11:37:21 AM PDT by GodBlessUSA ( God Bless Our Military Heroes! ) (("Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them"))
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To: SeekAndFind

Bringing their money wouldn’t be so much of a problem but, unfortunately, they brought their opinions as well. Somehow, the money just isn’t worth it.


50 posted on 10/03/2011 11:37:24 AM PDT by Hatteras
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