Skip to comments.Demographic Winter: A Disaster Movie In the Making
Posted on 10/16/2011 6:12:48 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
A speech by Don Feder at Ave Maria University, September 20, 2011
Hollywood has a penchant for blowing things up especially the world. Since the 1950s, apocalyptic movies (which come with a variety of special effects) have been all the rage.
Weve met our doom through nuclear war (On The Beach, The Day After), a worldwide super-plague (Twelve Monkeys The Stand), global warming (The Day After Tomorrow, Waterworld,), the earths core over-heating (2012, The Core), overpopulation (Soylent Green), a comet striking the earth (Deep Impact, Armageddon), sentient machines taking over (the Terminator and Matrix series), rampaging simians (the Planet of The Apes series), alien invasion (Invasion of The Body Snatchers, War of the Worlds Battle Los Angles), flesh-eating zombies often mistaken for Democrats - (I Am Legend, Zombieland) and fire-breathing dragons (Reign of Fire).
Did I miss anything?
But the most plausible disaster scenario is the one you never see coming, because it happens in slow motion and flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
Sentient machines out to destroy their makers, rampaging apes, flesh-eating zombies are, of course, fiction. The apocalypse looming on the horizon is fact. And, as one of my favorite presidents, John Adams, famously said: Facts are stubborn things.
Fact: Worldwide, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) the number of children the average woman has during her childbearing years - fell from 5 in the mid-1960s to 2.7 today, a decline of almost 50%.
Fact: 59 countries, with 44% of the worlds population, now have below replacement fertility in many cases, well below replacement. A birthrate of 2.1 is needed just to replace current population.
Fact: Russia, Germany and Greece are already experiencing population decline. Greece has a TFR of 1.3, making it impossible for tax revenue to keep pace with entitlements and the salaries of government workers, leading to riots and a nation on the brink of revolution. In Russia each year, abortions outnumber live births. The average Russian woman has six abortions in her lifetime. Not surprisingly, Russia is losing 700,000 people a year. Demographers tell us that everything else being equal with a birthrate of 1.3, a nation will lose half its people every 45 years.
Fact: From 1990 to 2000, the percentage of Spanish women who are childless at age 30 doubled, rising from 30% to 60%. Nearly one in five American women ends her childbearing years without having children compared to one in 10 in the 1970s. Germany has the highest proportion of childless women in Europe, one out of every three. Of Japanese women born in the 1970s, half are childless.
Fact: Due to Chinas one-child-per-family policy, the traditional preference for male children and gender-selection abortions, in the Middle Kingdom, there are now six newborn males for every five females, an unprecedented gender imbalance. Already, there are 18 million more Chinese men than women of marriageable age. That number is expected to rise to between 29 million and 40 million by the year 2020.
Fact: Developed nations are aging rapidly. Japans over-60 population went from 11.6% of total in 1989 to 21.2% in 2011. For each of the past 4 years, there have been more deaths than births in Japan. In 2010, the nation lost 125,000 people. In developed nations, seniors are expected to be to 32% of the total population by 2050. Then, there will be two elderly for every child.
Fact: By 2015, the global contraceptive market will generate an estimated $17.2 billion annually.
Fact: Today, there are six million fewer children in the world than there were in 1990. But thats just the initial tremor of a coming earthquake. The United Nations Population Division estimates that by 2050, there will be 248 million fewer children in the world under 5 than there are now.
One more Fact: Nothing happens in a vacuum. In human experience, nothing occurs spontaneously. For every effect there is a cause or multiple causes.
All over the world, individuals, governments and societies have embraced a set of assumptions and policies which have led inexorably to rapidly falling birthrates. In other words, whether or not we did so consciously, we chose Demographic Winter.
The roots of Demographic Winter lie in the 1960s. Its no coincidence that the phenomenon was first manifested in the late 1970s, about a decade after the Sixties, which resulted in the most profound social upheaval since the French Revolution.
The hallmark of the 60s revolution was youth rejecting authority - especially parental and religious authority. Supposedly this was a sign of intellectual independence and maturity. In reality, it was blind acceptance of a set of clichés and dogmas in place of eternal truths and time-tested wisdom.
Chief among these clichés was do your own thing which roughly translates as live for yourself. If you embrace this axiom, you become the warm center of your own little universe Planet You in the Galaxy Charlie Sheen. It should surprise no one that my generation (the Baby-Boomers) is known as the Me-Generation, in recognition of our self-centeredness. If you meet one of us at a party, well be wearing a name-tag that reads. Hi. Im (fill in the blank), let me tell you about me.
Along with a fixation on self came a lessening of feelings of responsibility for the things that really matter. Curiously, we feel responsible for endangered species, pollution and the ozone layer (things largely beyond our control) but not for our families, our nation or our people.
In the past, men and women didnt ask why have children - any more than they asked why eat or why breathe. It was such a natural part of existence as to require no explanation.
You had children because you had a responsibility to your family to assure its continuity. You had a responsibility to your people so that they would not go the way of the Babylonian and the Phoenician, whose downfall probably began when they started distributing condoms in their schools. And you had a responsibility to God, who created you and made procreation the first commandment.
In the United States, birth-control pills came into widespread use in the early 1960s. Today, for the first time in history, just under half the worlds population of child-bearing age uses some form of contraception. In the United States, children as young as 12 are instructed in the proper use of condoms. This includes fitting condoms over bananas, which at least in the case of fruit seems not to be working that well, as we still have an adequate supply of bananas.
In America, abortion was legalized by judicial decree in the 1973. Other Western nations followed our egregious example. Like contraception, abortion is based on 1960s assumptions, chief among them that nothing should be allowed to interfere with your happiness (or what youve been told will make you happy), including children. Again: Do your own thing. And if your own thing includes having a scalpel shoved in the skull of a child in utero and his brains suctioned out, thats a small price to pay for you being you.
Worldwide, there are approximately 115,000 abortions a day or 42 million a year. Morality aside, from a demographic perspective, were not just aborting 42 million unborn children a year, but their children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren, who will never exist. As Dick Cavett said, If your parents never had children, chances are you wont either.
At its heart, the Sixties revolution was a sexual revolution. Sex was divorced from marriage, commitment and even psychological connection. Weve seen the initiation of sexual activity at an earlier and earlier age. Sex before marriage led to sex outside marriage, which led to multiple liaisons, divorce and whats been called serial polygamy. In a few decades, weve gone from making love to having sex. This may seem counter-intuitive, but more and more sex has led to fewer and fewer children.
Cohabitation also plays a significant part here. According to the Census Bureau, between 2009 and 2010, there was a 13% increase in cohabiting heterosexual couples - from 6.7 million to 7.5 million. Thats on top of a tenfold increase in cohabitation between 1960 and the year 2000.
Given the impermanence of their relationships, cohabitating couples are more likely to be childless or to have fewer children. In much of the Western world, marriage has become optional a ceremony to mark a legal relationship, rather than an estate sanctified by faith and tradition.
In France, last year, more people began living together than married. In 2009, 3,727 couples were married in the Archdiocese of Boston, not far from where I live, compared to 8,343 a decade earlier.
Once a central reality of existence, marriage seems headed toward obsolescence. We marry because we choose to, not because we ought to. Fewer marriages equal fewer children.
Same-sex marriage (so-called) the beau ideal of Western elites - completely cuts the tie between marriage and children. Some couples choose not to have children. Others are unable to have children. With homosexual marriage, (and I use the term advisably) were applying the label to couples which, by their very nature, are incapable of reproduction severing the already tenuous connection between marriage and procreation.
Men and women who do marry are marrying later and later in life which also reduces the number of children. After age 35, it becomes progressively harder for women to conceive. The ability of men to father children also declines with age.
Despite what politicians tell us about doing it (whatever it happens to be) for the children, increasingly, we live in an anti-child culture. From cinema, to news media, to public education and academia - children are presented as a burden and an annoyance, rather than a joy and a blessing. The culture treats large families (today, defined as more than two or three children) as something freakish the result of parental eccentricity or religious fundamentalism.
We are constantly reminded of the cost of children to society in educational, medical and law enforcement expenditures. You may recall that in 2009, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defended funding of contraception in the Stimulus bill as a cost-cutting device suggesting that in times of fiscal constraint, children are a burden on the state.
Whats usually overlooked is the other side of the ledger: That the children of today are the workers, producers, consumers, innovators, care-givers, and the taxpayers of tomorrow those whose payments keep pension plans solvent, those who care for patients in the nursing homes, keep the streets safe, safeguard the nation, operate factories and farms and keep the lights on all over the world. The family with four children helps to assure a comfortable old age to the voluntarily childless.
Over the past 200 years, the worlds population grew from 980 million to 7 billion. That population explosion fueled every advance from the industrial revolution to the computer age. The same period saw a phenomenal growth in productivity and advances in science, health and material well-being.
But what happens when more and more becomes less and less? The U.N.s low variant projection has the worlds population peaking at 8 billion by 2040 and then beginning to decline. At some point, decline could become free-fall.
Civilization depends on population growth. Population decline is terra incognita.
Ultimately, our culture of selfishness is based on a loss of hope and faith. Its no coincidence that Europe, the continent with the lowest birthrates (in the European Union, the average TFR is 1.5), is said to be afflicted by a universal ennui.
Having gone through two world wars, several revolutions and any number of social upheavals over the past century, most Europeans have come to believe that the life well-lived consists of a month of vacation a year, and retirement at age 55.
Europeans are embarrassed by their religious roots. Once Europe was known as Christendom. Yet, the 70,000-word preamble to the European Constitution contains not a single reference to the faith which was the continents defining reality for over 1,000 years.
There is a direct correlation between birth rates and belief. In a 2011 Gallup Poll, 92% of Americans said they believe in God, compared to 52% of Europeans in a Eurostate/European Barometer survey. Only 21% of Europeans say religion is very important to them, compared to 59% of Americans. In consequence, the U.S. birthrate is around 2.06, slightly below replacement. In the European Union as a whole, its 1.5, well below replacement.
Countries with high church attendance have above-replacement birth rates. The reverse is also true: Empty churches equal empty cradles and empty hearts. Ive yet to encounter a family with more than three children that didnt have a firm foundation in faith be it Catholicism, evangelical Christianity, Orthodox Judaism, or Mormonism. All of these faiths recognize the centrality of family. All understand that procreation is a commandment. All support parental responsibility and authority. In other words, all are countercultural in the truest sense of the word.
On January 3, 2010, Yitta Schwartz passed away at age 94. A Holocaust survivor, Mrs. Schwartz and her husband had 17 children. In 1978, when her husband died, they already had more than 170 grandchildren. At the time of her death, her descendants numbered more than 2,500.
You will be shocked shocked, I say to learn that Yita Schwartz was not a secular humanist. She was a member of a Hasidic sect know for its piety and devotion to the mitzvot (commandments).
Religion teaches responsibility to God and our fellow man. It makes individuals other-oriented. It teaches that our own lives arent the sum total of human existence, that theres something higher a grand scheme that tells us both who we are and why we are. In consequence, it provides the only real foundation for happiness. There is a very simple formula to determine whos having large families and who isnt. Those who have faith in the future have children. Those who dont, dont. Where does faith in the future come from? It comes from faith.
The assault on procreation and families is led by the secular left. By putting these people in charge of our governments and our culture, by allowing them to indoctrinate our children (in the guise of educating and entertaining them), by subconsciously assimilating their values (including radical autonomy, skepticism, secularism, feminism, environmentalism and family planning), by closing our eyes to the reality and inevitable consequences of falling birth rates, we choose Demographic Winter.
Choice is the watchword of the anti-family left. The concept is more fitting than it could ever imagine. In thousands of ways, every day, humanity literally chooses its future or non-future.
But the wonderful thing about being human is that unlike the animals we can conceptualize. Besides conceiving children, we can also conceive ideas. By the application of reason, we can evaluate theories, accepting or rejecting them.
Besides morality, the ultimate test of an idea is its practicality. Does it work? The ideas that have lead to the tragedy of rapidly falling birth rates are disastrously wrong and must give way to better ideas if humanity is to have a future.
To return to our Hollywood disaster-movie analogy, how could you possibly make a movie about plummeting birthrates and where they are taking us? What would you call it, The Exterminator, Attack of the Population Planners (in which Margaret Sanger rises from the grave to perform vasectomies and tubal ligations?), Raiders of The Lost Fertility, The Incredible Shrinking Family?
There would be no shortage villains among them, the neo-Malthusians, including Paul Ehrlich of The Population Bomb fame (who confidently predicted mass worldwide starvation in the late 1960s, when the earths population was 3 billion), Zero Population Growth, Britains Optimum Population Trust, the United Nations Population Fund (Contraceptives and Abortion R Us), the carbon-footprint crowd, including Al Gore, who says we must stabilize the worlds population through fertility management educating and empowering women and girls to make the right choices by which he means the choices of which Al Gore approves - contraception and abortion.
While the demographers I know are great guys, none of them looks like Indiana Jones.
Things would happen too slowly for it to be a drama. Perhaps it could be a tragicomedy combining both tragic and comic elements.
One thing is certain: it would be a script without an ending. Because how this movie ends depends on you.
Actually that would be "Thou Shalt Have No Other Gods Before Me."
Well, that about sums it up.
My first-born was kidnapped and taken to Mass. and raised a flaming liberal by her Moron-Mother. But I was 20, young, dumb and full of something.
As a 25 year old father of twin daughters who will turn 3 in December, I blame this garbage on the false secular idea that a baby is somehow a burden. It infuriates me that so many people think this. The girls are the greatest thing that ever happened us (my wife and I)..
My wife works a stressfull job as an ER RN, but she is an amazing mom and wife. I wish I had her energy and optimism..but she is living proof that women even in their 20s can be great mothers.
and we are not finished at 2..just waiting awhile
India, North Africa, and South America haven’t got the memo yet.
In any case, I am skeptical that a continually increasing population is essential for prosperity, or that the only alternative is an aging population in decline. There is no reason a population can't achieve a steady state, and prosper with advances in technology, efficiency, health and productivity, and changing interests.
Feder mentions Ehrlich and his book near the end of the column.
Baloney. Agrarian societies need more children because in those societies, children are capital. The more industrialized a society becomes, the fewer children are required.
It was rather clumsily and ineffectually phrased.
I know that the way the courts are so biased against husbands/fathers there’s a lot of guys not wanting to have kids, only to be turned into slaves for the ex and have the state consider them de facto criminals.
While “go forth and multiply” is indeed found in the Bible, it’s not one of the Commandments. You’d think this guy would have done a bit of research before tossing that out.
Yeah, they have. They are producing more children then some other places but the numbers are way down.
And as better medical care means that your child has more then a 25% chance of reaching adulthood the number of children being born declines. Of course, so does the number of children dying.
He was probably referring to Genesis 9:7.
“And you had a responsibility to God, who created you and made procreation the first commandment.
Actually that would be “Thou Shalt Have No Other Gods Before Me.”
He wasn’t talking about the first commandment of the decalogue, he was talking about Genesis 1:28.
that’s the elephant in the room everyone is too scared to mention.
as the population of the 1st world declines, the population of the 3rd world is skyrocketing... that will be the real problem as those billions try to invade and or take away everything the 1st world has.
Despite all the BS of the politically correct class, the progressives and the environmentalists and their enablers in the MSM, the biggest crisis facing mankind at present, and the primary cause of our current economic collapse, is this demographic collapse.
Including nuclear weapons and technology.
Well, it wasn't a suggestion from God.
Yes, God commanded this from the man and woman. What are you not getting?
Thoughtful - Thanks for posting this...
Most theologians will identify this as the First Commandment of God to Adam and Eve. Regardless of any confusion with Moses and his tablets, the instruction to ‘multiply’ is the first given by God to his greatest creation.
Yep, Moslems and Mexicans women have 3-4 kids while White women have careers and dogs
When we had our sixth I had this put on the birth announcement:
From the fullness of grace we have received one blessing after another.
Some get it, others don’t. Sadly the bad comments outweighed the good when announcing the pregnancy. I jokingly tell my husband next time everyone will know only when the baby is born.
As a conservative, militant some might say, I see great positives in this report. Conservatives continue to procreate while the left, through abortion, same sex unions, and cohabitation, are culling themselves to extinction. Note: in the U.S. approximately 1.5 million abortions occur each year. Legal since 1973, the 13,500,000 aborted by liberals prior to 1982, did not get raised in a liberal household and become eligible to vote in the 2000 election. After all, you can’t get conservatives to abort a child even at gun point. Al Gore losses by the skin of his teeth. The 1994 election was the first election Roe-v-Wade victims would have been able to vote in and Republicans took over the house for the first time in 40 years. Though it is against my personal beliefs, this IS a culture war. And if the enemy is willing to commit suicide, and continue to encourage it, I will not oppose them. Nancy Pelosi was right. The funding for contraception and abortion she defended DOES save future government expenditures because those that it affects would most likely grow up to be worthless Wall Street occupier types. Those of us it does not affect, will have our children and raise them to be productive God fearing patriotic citizens. Makes me want to send a donation to Panned Parenthood.
Uh, it wasn’t that women became pregnant less after reaching the industrial threshold. It was because birth control made by the industrial system allowed them the ‘freedom’ of childlessness. 50 million dead babies and counting since 1973 . . .
That's because the Cavendish bananas we eat don't reproduce sexually, no matter how you eat your banana.
Along a similar vein, the cucumbers used in the daily Malthusian drills are generally picked before they mature. You ain't getting baby cucumbers from it no matter what you do with it.
The commandment to be fruitful and multiply was in Genesis.
Jesus, my wife, and my kids are my reasons for living. I cannot imagine life without them.
I am beginning to see why the suicide rate is so high. If eating, drinking, sex, and games are all there is, why bother?
Those segments that value children, whether or not they are economically sensible, will flourish while the rest fade away.
Believe me when I say you don’t want to be married to a Muslim or Mexican man. Most treat their women like dirt.
You forget blogging and facebooking. I believe those two activities tilt the balance in favor of carrying on for the purposeless masses.
You’re an exception to the rule. Not particularly common nowadays.
Recently saw a chart of Japanese fertility rates. It showed a steady decline for the last 30 years, with a rise in the near future back to replacement levels, leading to a stabilization of population in about 50 years.
The accompanying article made no attempt at all to explain why the decades-long decline actually shown by the data would not just continue. The consequences are apparently so appalling they can’t even visualize the possibility, so they just ignore their own data and its extrapolation.
IIRC: Didn't I hear Obama mumble something along those lines in talking about his daughters.
< places muzzle of shotgun in mouth, feels for trigger with big toe >
I am beginning to see why the suicide rate is so high. If eating, drinking, sex, and games are all there is, why bother?
I don't have a wife or kids, and yet I have no desire to kill myself. Go figure.
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 And God created the great whales, and every living and moving creature, which the waters brought forth, according to their kinds, and every winged fowl according to its kind. And God saw that it was good.  And he blessed them, saying: Increase and multiply, and fill the waters of the sea: and let the birds be multiplied upon the earth.  And the evening and morning were the fifth day.  And God said: Let the earth bring forth the living creature in its kind, cattle and creeping things, and beasts of the earth, according to their kinds. And it was so done.  And God made the beasts of the earth according to their kinds, and cattle, and every thing that creepeth on the earth after its kind. And God saw that it was good.Even before man was created, God said to the animals: "Increase and multiply", and then He said:
 And he said: Let us make man to our image and likeness: and let him have dominion over the fishes of the sea, and the fowls of the air, and the beasts, and the whole earth, and every creeping creature that moveth upon the earth.  And God created man to his own image: to the image of God he created him: male and female he created them.  And God blessed them, saying: Increase and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it, and rule over the fishes of the sea, and the fowls of the air, and all living creatures that move upon the earth.  And God said: Behold I have given you every herb bearing seed upon the earth, and all trees that have in themselves seed of their own kind, to be your meat:  And to all beasts of the earth, and to every fowl of the air, and to all that move upon the earth, and wherein there is life, that they may have to feed upon. And it was so done.
This was God's very first command to the living!
Actually that would be "Thou Shalt Have No Other Gods Before Me."Read Genesis. Before Moses, God commanded the birds and the beeves and mankind to multiply. It was a command and the first God gave us. Your quote came from the Tablets given by God to Moses,. much later in human history.
For some minds, I suppose the quotidian grind is enough. I myself cannot imagine what it would be like to live life comme n'a pas d'importance.
As a father of five in his late, late forties, as well as a father of twins, you have my best wishes. Our buy-one-get-one-free sale came to us a little over six years ago, and they are our third and fourth kids. Children are truly a blessing, not a burden, and I’d love to have more.
I read Mark Steyn’s book America Alone, when it came out, not having thought about that as the end result of forty years of the liberal/progressive “me” garbage. But it made sense. And here, as in the world of economics, people tend to forget: NUMBERS MATTER.
The Margaret Sangers of the world count on that; they count on those to whom it would matter being preoccupied with work, God, the things in life that occur day-to-day. It makes the evil that they wish to commit easier when we aren’t on our guard. It’s why the “pro-choice” sort of language is employed. It has been a longtime progressive trait/strategy to change the meaning of language/vocabulary to tilt all arguments in your favor. If the terms in use benefit your statements, your opponent is one step down at the beginning of things.
To any who would ask, I would say have children. As many as the Lord gives you, in a faithful, loving, faith-filled family. Teach them as best you can, by example, love them and nurture them.
There’ve been numerous times where someone has asked us, “How do you handle having so many kids?” To us, even though there are times where this or that is happening, or child A has decided for whatever reason to smite child B, they are great, God has given them to us, and we are very pleased with all of them. My grandmother’s family had nine kids. So we’re just past that halfway mark. ;)
Your post is one of the more prescient on this thread that garnered a whole 43 comments. It should really be of interest to the slew of single issue voters of the anti-abortion persuasion, and believe me I’m as anti as most Americans, but you weave an excellent premise, if not fully factual truth.
Unfortunately, this type of thoughtful thread used to be a bit more prolific on Freerepublic. Principles matter, morality matters, and God is still in charge and in control, but man and his mortal enemy are doing their damnedest, no pun intended, to screw up the plan, and thus build up the secular religion in the process.
All of this, makes the statement “God Bless America” somewhat hypocritical under the circumstances, however, “those that be with us are more than those that be with them”, so the war between good and evil continues as long as the second coming remains in the future. What a glorious moment it will be when the Master returns.
Forgot to ping the originator, thanks for an excellent thread. It is a keeper. Never forget the word demographics. Like elections have consequences, so do demographics.
I hope that was a macabre jest. The babies slaughtered in the womb -- including those conceived in rape -- had no dog in the hunt of their parents, at least as far as politics goes. I agree with your analysis of the 1994 election (I saw this first in a Steyn article, but the analysis predates even that column). Still ...
As far as the remainder of this century, it's going to be a difficult and tumultuous ride for our kids. Mine are in their20s now, and they'll be in their 50s at mid-century, when the full force of the demographic collapse of the West begins to be felt in full force. Do not forget that far more than America's political conservatives, Muslim women are cranking out babies at a prodigious rate, and places likeFrance will be beyond the political tipping point by mid-century. Likely Great Britain as well.
in 2010 I took our family for a two-week visit to Vienna. When my children were there, they were too young to remember anything of the place. And, so I had a wonderful leisurely time to acquaint them with all the places their mother and I loved so much in our years there. We stayed in an apartment in Sobieskiplatz, named for Jan Sobieski, a Polish king who saved Vienna from being overun by Islamic forces in 1683. If he had failed, Europe might be an Islamic Caliphate today.
As we walked to and fro through Sobieskiplatz on the way to the trams to take us on our daily excursions, we could not miss the presence of Muslim mothers, pushing their babies in strollers, with two or three or four other small children in tow. These mothers were everywhere, and their constsant abundance in Sobieskiplatz was ironic.
What the Turkish armies failed to do (because of Sobieski's military prowess) a quiet army of Muslim mothers is now doing: turning Vienna into an Islamic city. Or, at least it appears they shall succeed in this by mid-century, as they shall in other European capitals.
American political and religious conservatives are not the only ones having babies. And, they're not having babies at nearly the rate as these Islamic mothers.
Meanwhile, the econimic consequences of the demographic winter this speech points to cannot be avoided. It's going to be a rocky ride for our kids.
That's a family favorite here. "Something worse than dragons: Americans!"
The first instruction or “commandment” God gave to the first people was, “Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it.” The same instruction was given after the flood, “ ... replenish the earth.”
I’m sure Mr. Feder was aware of these instructions, and was not confusing the events of Genesis with the Law given following the Exodus.
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