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CNN poll: Romney leads in all four early states; Cain leads Romney in national Fox News poll
Hotair ^ | 10/27/2011 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/27/2011 9:34:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Even an eeyore like me wasn’t prepared for the sheer despair generated by these numbers. Bad enough to nominate Romney by default after the rest of the field flames out, but … to let him run the table? Says Philip Klein, “[T]ogether, the candidates are uninspiring, unserious, unprepared, dishonest, unreliable, inexperienced, inconsistent or ideologically malleable. Not one of them seems up to the task at hand.” True — but surely there’s one Not Romney in the bunch who’s sufficiently up to the task to win one state. Isn’t there?

Serious question: If the architect of RomneyCare and Great Centrist Hope runs the table, what’s left of the tea party as a national political movement? It’s one thing to say, “You can’t beat a well-funded, well-organized establishment candidate in a long race,” but you should be able to beat them somewhere. If you can’t, what’s left?

In Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on January 3 and is traditionally the first state to vote in the race for the nomination, 24% of registered Republicans say they are backing Romney, who’s making his second bid for the presidency, with Cain, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, at 21%. Romney’s three point margin is within the survey’s sampling error…

It’s a dead heat in South Carolina, which will hold its primary on Jan. 21 and traditionally is the first southern state to vote along the road to the White House. According to the poll in the Palmetto State, Romney has the support of 25% of self-identified Republicans or independents who lean towards the GOP, with Cain at 23%. Romney’s two-point margin is well within the survey’s sampling error…

Florida will hold its primary on January 31, voting fourth in the primary and caucus calendar. According to the poll, three out of ten Republicans say they back Romney, with Cain at 18%. Gingrich and Perry each grab 9% support, with Paul at 6%, Bachmann at 4%, and Huntsman and Santorum at 1%.

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, he leads by 27. Granted, that’s the only one of the four where his lead is commanding, and granted, only a third or so of voters in each state say that their minds are made up, so there’s still lots of room for movement. But consider two things. One: This could be a sign that the Cain surge is starting to fade. I think he’ll be in the top tier for the rest of the race, but being top-tier and actually winning primaries are two different things. The last few polls out of Iowa had Cain ahead by anywhere from seven to 10 points; now suddenly he’s down to 21 percent again. (His numbers have dropped in South Carolina too.) Maybe last week’s abortion and Gitmo gaffes have finally started to bite. Two: The best Perry does in any of these states is 11 percent in South Carolina, which was supposed to be his southern stronghold. He’s fourth there, trailing Romney, Cain, and Ron Paul, with Gingrich just three points behind him. The closest he gets to second place in any of these is … nine points. If I’m right about Cain sticking around the top tier and if, as expected, Gingrich continues to impress at debates, there’s no way to avoid a deep split among the Not Romney vote. How does Perry manage that?

Here’s Huntsman, who tops out at six percent in New Hampshire and one percent everywhere else, dumping on Romney for “leading from behind.” Counterintuitive exit question: Is there a silver lining for Romney critics insofar as the Iowa numbers might force him to compete there? His nightmare scenario is thinking he can stun the field by winning Iowa, pouring in lots of money to make it happen, and then finishing a crushingly disappointing second behind some grassroots darling like Cain. (It’s happened before, you might remember.) He might not be able to resist gambling on it if the polls keep up like this.

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Update: Good news for Cainiacs: The Cain Train hasn’t been derailed yet. The bad news? National polls don’t matter compared to state polls. They’re fun as a proxy for popular support, but if Romney wins Iowa on January 3, the race is over no matter what his national numbers are that day.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows support for Cain has quadrupled among GOP primary voters since late August. At that time, he stood at 6 percent. After three September debates, he jumped to 17 percent. And now Cain leads the pack at 24 percent.

While it’s the first time Romney has trailed Cain, it’s the second time he’s been ousted from the lead since July. Romney receives 20 percent — a new low for him. That’s down from 23 percent last month and a high of 26 percent in early August.

Newt Gingrich now comes in third with 12 percent — edging out Rick Perry. The former speaker — like Cain — has seen his support quadruple since late August.

Perry’s support has dropped to 10 percent, down from 19 percent in September.

That flat-tax idea had better catch on quick-like. Especially since Cain just landed the most coveted endorsement of all.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cnnpoll; foxnewspoll; hermancain; mittromney; nationalbooktour

1 posted on 10/27/2011 9:34:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

More lies from the LSM. It’s what they do.


2 posted on 10/27/2011 9:35:31 AM PDT by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Prop up the Rino.


3 posted on 10/27/2011 9:36:29 AM PDT by petercooper (2012 - Purge more RINO's.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m in the South Carolina GOP and Cain is WAAAAAAAAY ahead of the pack.

Don’t know about IA NH NV or Fla but these dummies don’t know jack about SC!


4 posted on 10/27/2011 9:39:53 AM PDT by Happy Rain ( "Many of the most useful idiots of the Left are on the Right.")
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To: SeekAndFind

So the GOP plan is to cramdown a nominee in the first six weeks that the bulk of the electorate does not support.

Brilliant!


5 posted on 10/27/2011 9:40:43 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

The only reason Romney leads is that we have too many conservative candidates who are splitting up the non-Romney vote. We could end up with a jerk like Mitt simply because egos prevent some of the hopeless conservative candidates from dropping out.


6 posted on 10/27/2011 9:41:12 AM PDT by freespirited (Stupid people are ruining America. --Herman Cain)
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To: SeekAndFind

Cain was hurt by the manufactured “pro-choice” mix up. Even here in Memphis, they spent 3 hours on the local talk show playing it as if he were pro-choice, leaving out the second question that he was actually responding to.


7 posted on 10/27/2011 9:42:16 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: SeekAndFind

I would wipe Ghadaffi’s dead, bloody ass with my bare hand before voting for Romney.
(And I’m trying to express my aversion to Milton in a delicate way ...)


8 posted on 10/27/2011 9:42:30 AM PDT by tumblindice (Don't tread on me)
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To: SeekAndFind

Cain was hurt by the manufactured “pro-choice” mix up. Even here in Memphis, they spent 3 hours on the local talk show playing it as if he were pro-choice, leaving out the second question that he was actually responding to.


9 posted on 10/27/2011 9:42:51 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney needs to be teen down NOW! Time to play the morman card?


10 posted on 10/27/2011 9:44:49 AM PDT by wilco200 (11/4/08 - The Day America Jumped the Shark)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hello - it’s CNN

IOWA - University of Iowa poll: Cain 37% Romney 27% Ron Paul 12% Perry 6%
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/october/102111Hawk%20Poll%20Topline.pdf

NBC News/Marist Poll 2012 South Carolina (Cain 30%, Romney 26%, Perry 9%, Gingrich 6%)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2795021/posts

Cain leads SC Republican Primary (Cain 32%, Romney 16%, Perry 12%)
http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/government/elections/2011-10-17/cain-leads-south-carolina-republican-primary-
race?v=1318813096

PPP
Iowa: 26% Cain, 18% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 11% Bachmann, 10% Paul, 6% Perry, 1% Huntsman, 0% Santorum
New Hampshire: 39% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Paul, 5% Bachmann, 5% Gingrich, 5% Huntsman, 2% Perry, 0% Santorum

Cain Leading GOP Field in Florida
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/herman-cain-leading-gop-2012-field-florida

____________

Nationwide:

Herman Cain leads CBS/NYT poll (Cain 25%, Romney 21%, Gingrich 10%, Paul 8%, Perry)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20125120-503544/herman-cain-tops-mitt-romney-in-latest-cbs-nyt-poll/

Fox News Poll: GOP Primary Voters Get on the Cain Train (Cain 24%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 10%, Paul 9%)
http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/10/26/fox-news-poll-gop-primary-voters-get-on-cain-train/

IBOPE Zogby Poll (Cain 45%, Romney 21%, Rick Perry 7%, Bachmann, 1%)
http://www.zogby.com/news/2011/10/17/ibope-zogby-poll-cain-continues-pull-away-perry-bachmann-fading/


11 posted on 10/27/2011 9:46:17 AM PDT by justsaynomore (Cain 2012 - http://teamcain.hermancain.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

Which if any are looking at open primaries, and if so does the state polling take the Rat participation into account? I’d like to say of course Rats would like to boost Romney, because he’s the most likely of the pack to be able to be bent to their will. But they may also be thinking that Cain is an unelectable flake and that he could be easily trounced in the main election by the Truly Magic Negro (barf). So what to do, Rats? What to do?


12 posted on 10/27/2011 9:50:51 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney ( It`s my turn dammit , I got seniority ) will NOT beat the messiah.

The base will simply stay home.


13 posted on 10/27/2011 9:51:35 AM PDT by Para-Ord.45
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To: justsaynomore

I’d like to see the poll’s internals. The make-up of the sample can be of greater importance than the outcome. Sample the right group, and you can get any result you want/pay for.


14 posted on 10/27/2011 9:52:02 AM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: SeekAndFind

It is scary to think that the most “conservative” popular media is helping the libs choose our candidate. Why isn’t there Big Conservative Media that would be enjoyable to watch? Not namby pamby fox. Real conservatives. There are only a few on fox. Until this happens how can we ever get someone decent into the WH?


15 posted on 10/27/2011 9:55:21 AM PDT by Yaelle
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To: SeekAndFind
Serious question: If the architect of RomneyCare and Great Centrist Hope runs the table, what’s left of the tea party as a national political movement?

Good question. The answer is the movement would be severely weakened, at minimum. ....which is precisely what the GOP establishment wants, which is why they're pushing Willard with such desperation.

16 posted on 10/27/2011 10:00:28 AM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: Fantasywriter
I’d like to see the poll’s internals. The make-up of the sample can be of greater importance than the outcome. Sample the right group, and you can get any result you want/pay for.

That's so so so true. Back when I studied political science in college (I picked it as one of the few humanities options needed to round out an engineering education) one thing that came out is that Gallup had an excruciatingly scientific method to come up with accurate data, if they wanted to go to the trouble. The problem is that you have to chase down all your pre-selected sample subjects, and only go to alternates if they truly play hard to get. This can take weeks. Your weekend flash phone poll is going to have huge reliability and bias problems compared to this.

17 posted on 10/27/2011 10:01:41 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: SeekAndFind
Cain just landed the most coveted endorsement of all.

For a second I thought Sarah Palin had endorsed him. Dale Peterson is the most coveted endorsement of all?

18 posted on 10/27/2011 10:10:44 AM PDT by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: SeekAndFind

something is wrong with that CNN poll, it doesn’t jive with any other poll taken recently.


19 posted on 10/27/2011 10:19:07 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Thanks for that info. It’s fascinating. I don’t have a numbers kind of mind, but I latch onto any and all analyses of polling methodology. I’ve learned a lot, some from Rush, and even more from FR.


20 posted on 10/27/2011 10:20:01 AM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: SeekAndFind

Finally. I’ll have my own planet with hundreds of women to serve me! Wait a minute.....how many lawns is that to mow?.....all that garbage to take out....never mind.


21 posted on 10/27/2011 10:23:38 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: SeekAndFind
As every FReeper knows, the MSM is trying - as always - to pick the Republican candidate. For 2012, Mitt Romney, a classic, flip-floping RINO of the first order, is their man. As many have predicted, the MSM will publish poll after poll showing Romney ahead in an effort to (a) signal to the Democrats voting in 'open' primaries that he's the left's choice and, (b) convince gullible Republican primary voters into believing that a Romney nomination is 'inevitable', thus killing turnout and quickly eliminating other candidates who will lose financial support. The goal is to keep a conservative from being nominated as the 2012 Republican presidential candidate. Unfortunately, the GOP establishment is in on this because they like the Washington beltway status quo.

I believe that conservatives need to coalesce around a specific candidate and not be diverted into supporting those who have little-to-no chance. We all know who they are. I'm a Cain supporter and so I hope he'll be the person conservatives decide to support en masse. If Romney wins the nomination, as weird as it seems to type this, I believe Obama could defeat him because many, many Republican voters will stay home or vote for some independent candidate as a 'protest'.

I hope that doesn't happen because even a RINO like Romney would be better than the Kenyan Marxist we have ruining the country, now. Romney would likely help the economy. Unfortunately, that's about the best we could hope for. He would very likely 'go left' on most other issues that matter to conservatives. I would guess his Supreme Court choices would mirror those of a Democrat, which is what Mitt Romney really is. This is why I hope that conservatives will band together behind another - conservative - candidate to defeat Romney in the first primary states because if he wins there, as the article states, it's over, in more ways than one.

22 posted on 10/27/2011 10:26:10 AM PDT by Jim Scott (on the 'Cain Train')
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To: Fantasywriter

Another interesting factoid for ya is that if you have your sample selection criteria down good and scientific, you don’t really need a humongously large sample size to get your margin of error a lot lower than 1%. The mathematics of probability bears it out. I long ago forgot the number, but it was something like a couple thousand. That’s all you need to peg to get a very tight read on the entire population of the USA... IF your selection criteria are truly random. It’s tempting to say that this is no problem with a phone poll, but it’s a big problem. This assumes the person answers his phone, is available at the time of the poll, isn’t in a grumpy mood and just wants to get you off his back, etc.


23 posted on 10/27/2011 10:27:17 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: Happy Rain

There is NO WAY Romney wins the SC primary. It will be Cain or Perry. Or a longshot Gingrich. No Yankee liberal, who happens to be Morman (and yes that a minus in the Palmetto State) will win SC. Aint gonna happen. If Romney loses Iowa, wins NH, then follows up with a loss in SC, he might be pernamently damaged. These national polls, saying someone is leading in a state, mean nothing, especially when that state has a caucas system. Romney has all but ignored Iowa. Wouldn’t surprise me if Santorum won it. The winner will be the person who hits all 99 counties and gets to know the people and has good media coverage. That person so far has been Santorum. Iowa is also full of social conservatives, something Willard is not.


24 posted on 10/27/2011 10:29:10 AM PDT by Luther1917
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To: Luther1917

Yes, the south is more likely to like Cain or Perry.


25 posted on 10/27/2011 10:32:39 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Lol. I love the last line. I’ve seen political cartoons about people lying to pollsters. I wish we didn’t put so much emphasis on polls. It’s an MSM game [much of it is, anyway], and yet it’s so hard not to play along.


26 posted on 10/27/2011 10:35:17 AM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: SeekAndFind
if Romney wins Iowa on January 3, the race is over no matter what his national numbers are that day.

So, the whole pubbie primary is reduced to several thousand cow patty-kickers plowing snow in the hawk-eye-cauc-eye on January 3rd, and nothing else matters.

I call bullshit.

I've got no "beef" with any of the 7 FReepers from Iowa, but this hyperbole is more than I can stand.

27 posted on 10/27/2011 10:39:32 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the Terrorists Savages)
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To: SeekAndFind

To the people in the four early states:

Many of you may be Mormons, but for your own salvation, indeed, for the sake of America, and our precious freedom, please read “The God Makers”, by Ed Decker and Dave Hunt! Mormonism is NOT Christian. It is a multi-level secret society where you learn little by little about your ‘FAITH’ until you get to the top level where you will learn what you are REALLY giving your lives for! I believe the top level is much as the 33rd degree of Freemasonry, much of which Mormonism has taken.

To those who are not Mormon, if Mitt wins the presidency, he will not be in charge, the Mormon Church will be the in charge, and America will be the looser! Being a Bishop in the Mormon Church, as Tricia Erickson asks in her book, “Can Mitt Serve Two Masters?”

Google “The White Horse Prophecy”. Be informed in order to vote wisely.


28 posted on 10/27/2011 10:41:18 AM PDT by Paperdoll
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To: SeekAndFind

To the people in the four early states:

Many of you may be Mormons, but for your own salvation, indeed, for the sake of America, and our precious freedom, please read “The God Makers”, by Ed Decker and Dave Hunt! Mormonism is NOT Christian. It is a multi-level secret society where you learn little by little about your ‘FAITH’ until you get to the top level where you will learn what you are REALLY giving your lives for! I believe the top level is much as the 33rd degree of Freemasonry, much of which Mormonism has taken.

To those who are not Mormon, if Mitt wins the presidency, he will not be in charge, the Mormon Church will be the in charge, and America will be the looser! Being a Bishop in the Mormon Church, as Tricia Erickson asks in her book, “Can Mitt Serve Two Masters?”

Google “The White Horse Prophecy”. Be informed in order to vote wisely.


29 posted on 10/27/2011 10:41:31 AM PDT by Paperdoll
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To: SeekAndFind

Polls from the last few weeks have shown Cain blowing Romney away in both Iowa and South Carolina. I’m very suspicious of this poll.


30 posted on 10/27/2011 10:42:57 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Get ready for an aberration of epic proportions! - Herman Cain 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind
This is a telephone poll of registered Republicans. We all know that polls of registered voters come up with results that vary significantly from those of likely voters. In addition, the margin of error is +/- 5 points and Cain is shown behind Roomney within that margin of error in Iowa, SC, and Fla..

I wouldn't worry about it. Primary turnout is usually less than half -- the motivated and more conservative voters. It's an interesting "snapshot" of general Republican opinion, but not a very good predictor of the primaries.

31 posted on 10/27/2011 10:45:36 AM PDT by BfloGuy (Even the opponents of Socialism are dominated by socialist ideas.)
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To: Personal Responsibility

Sounds like a bias in the system. As a geek, I can definitely testify to the arduous task it would be to get a poll right. To get a poll right you don’t need huge numbers of sample subjects. The trouble comes in chasing them all down. These are all phone polls and various important demographic factors influence whether the person will even answer the phone or give a candid response to your poll.


32 posted on 10/27/2011 10:50:46 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: BfloGuy

In some places you don’t need to register to a party to register to vote. You won’t get access to a party’s primary that way, unless they are open primaries.


33 posted on 10/27/2011 10:52:30 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: Paperdoll

As if Mitt would care as much about his church’s official prophets as about the worldly glory he’s getting from the public. I suppose the church could kick Mitt out if he balked at a prophet’s request, but they have to choose between doing that and losing a member in a very high place. They’re venal too, as any system of man is.


34 posted on 10/27/2011 10:56:30 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: USS Alaska

Well the perception (reality or no) is why primary candidates stump so hard there. There’s a lot of stumping time left. Of course if Cain wins the Iowa primary the MSM is going to call it a fluke, but if Romney wins that primary than whoa! we got manifest destiny on our hands. Might as well get ready to hear that and file it in the appropriate circular file.


35 posted on 10/27/2011 11:00:24 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Have you studied anything about the ormon Church?


36 posted on 10/27/2011 11:10:35 AM PDT by Paperdoll (I like Herman Cain)
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To: Paperdoll

Doll, if you’re going to wave a bloody shirt, how about starting with Mitt’s career as governor of Massachusetts? Show us what the LDS forced Mitt to do there.


37 posted on 10/27/2011 11:13:43 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: HiTech RedNeck

You are free to gather your information as I hav done. If you choose to ignore what infomration is available, that is your business. If you are threatening me with a “bloody shirt”, consider yoursellf reportablew.


38 posted on 10/27/2011 11:22:52 AM PDT by Paperdoll (I like Herman Cain)
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To: Paperdoll

A “bloody shirt” is supposed blatant evidence of a wrong. It’s like the wearer was bloodily murdered, and now you wave the shirt to show the world what happened to the wearer.

You raise a big doubt and then when pressed for details you get cute about it. OK, where did the LDS force Mitt’s hand? Almost everybody is worried about his sellouts to small public interest segments. If he actually sold out to an LDS prophet coming up with directions on the fly (not just a body of long standing doctrine) this should be big news. Surely there is more than a “potential” problem going on?


39 posted on 10/27/2011 11:28:31 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: Luther1917

After Perry shot himself in the foot on the Confederate flag this week, don’t look for him to win in S. C..


40 posted on 10/27/2011 11:50:23 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: HiTech RedNeck

You are saying that what I have posted is a lie? I didn’t write the history and facts about Mormonism. I am just warning people about the dangers of it. And those dangers are more real than you apparently accept. So be it. I think where a candidate comes from is an immensely strong indication of where he will go. It has everything to do with his/her values and beliefs. To Mormons, their first allegiance, indeed their only allegiance, is to the Mormon Church.


41 posted on 10/27/2011 11:57:36 AM PDT by Paperdoll (I like Herman Cain)
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To: Paperdoll

I’m saying “So....” ?

If you’re hearing “that’s a lie” then could it be conscience?


42 posted on 10/27/2011 1:04:11 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: HiTech RedNeck; Paperdoll
Jessie Jackson defined bloody shirt for you when he went to MLK's body and wiped blood on his shirt then, claimed to be the hero who attempted to save him.

WillfulI Ignorance is a trait of Liberalism, not usually found among those identifying themselves as Conservative.

43 posted on 10/27/2011 1:36:17 PM PDT by itsahoot (There was a bloodless coup in 08, and no one seemed to notice. God help us.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

You are as bad as Reagan Man. Ta ta.


44 posted on 10/27/2011 1:38:12 PM PDT by Paperdoll (I like Herman Cain)
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To: itsahoot

Oh la! Another Leftist!


45 posted on 10/27/2011 1:42:27 PM PDT by Paperdoll (I like Herman Cain)
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To: HiTech RedNeck; Paperdoll

My inlaws live in Massachusetts, so I checked with them. At the end of Mitt’s governorship, the health care system may have been going down the tubes, but..... polygamy was still illegal, regular underwear was sold openly at K-Mart, and all the coffee shops were still open.


46 posted on 10/27/2011 2:48:37 PM PDT by Notary Sojac (I wish someone would tell me what "ditty wah ditty" means.)
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