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'Baby bust' spells trouble for rich nations
ra ^ | October 30th 2011 | Chris Arsenault

Posted on 10/30/2011 12:35:25 PM PDT by Cardhu

More than 30 countries, mostly in Europe and East Asia, face rapidly ageing populations.

The world’s richest nations are approaching a baby bust. It’s a bear market for newborns and the effects could spell economic and social dislocation in the next 20 years, according to some analysts.

As demographers debate the dangers and benefits of the earth’s population reaching seven billion on October 31, advanced economies in Europe, East Asia and even the US are facing declining birth rates.

With senior citizens making up a larger proportion of the population, countries are worried that there will be too many retirees receiving healthcare and social security payments and too few workers to support them.

“The costs of supporting the elderly are generally met through taxes,” Madeleine Sumption, an analyst with the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, told Al Jazeera. “Without any reforms to current working and spending patterns, the costs are expected to grow to unsustainable levels in many wealthy countries, particularly in very rapidly ageing countries such as Japan and Italy.”

For a population to stay at a steady state, the fertility rate needs to be about 2.1 children per woman. Japan’s rate, one of the lowest in the world, is 1.21, according to the CIA, far below basic replacement levels. The UK is at 1.91, Belgium’s is 1.65, Canada is at 1.58, South Korea has a rate of 1.23 and Italy has a rate of 1.39.

More than 30 countries have what is considered a very low fertility of less than 1.3 births per woman.

Demographic dangers

“With a lower fertility rate, the ageing of the population is inevitable,” said Roderic Beaujot, a demographer at the University of Western Ontario in Canada. “You have less people at the bottom of the [age] pyramid and with people living longer you have more people at the top of the pyramid.”

In the UK, for example, the number of people over 70 will increase by more than 50 per cent - from 6.2 million today to 9.6 million in 2030 - according to government forecasts.

“Ageing has become a huge industry,” Peggy Taillon, director of the Canadian Council on Social Development, a research organisation, told Al Jazeera. “People are looking for options because of the costs associated with care.”

Rising healthcare expenditures are just one of the challenges ageing, developed countries are beginning to face as children of the so-called baby boom - the period of high economic growth following World War II - begin to retire.

“In order to maintain their standard of living, based on the economic level they have been at for the past 50 years, [developed countries] are going to have to replace their population after the baby boom,” said Thomas Janoski, a professor of sociology at the University of Kentucky. “Demography is the one thing in the social sciences you can predict pretty strongly.”

There are two main solutions to the baby bust: increasing fertility rates or encouraging immigration. Both seem fairly simple, but can be difficult to achieve.

Facing a steep demographic decline, Russia initiated a policy known as “mother capital” where women are paid about $10,000 to have more than one child. It seems to have had a small effect, but the general trend remains dismal for the world’s largest country by territory.

The other option, immigration, is not popular in East Asia and is becoming less appetising for some Europeans. Japan has one of the lowest naturalisation rates in the world, Janoski said. “Japan and Korea will be the odd cases, but with China sitting on their border, they will have an incentive to keep their economies strong, as they don’t want to become vassal states of China,” he told Al Jazeera.

Class and religion

In Europe, a common fear among the far-right is that immigration from Muslim majority nations will create “Eurabia”. But demographics don’t seem to back up that view.

“Perhaps the biggest surprise, given received notions about the Arab/Muslim expanse, is the recent spread of sub- replacement fertility to parts of the Arab and the Muslim world,” wrote Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon are now sub-replacement countries, as is Turkey.”

Traditionally a sender of emigrants to the US, Canada, Australia and other regions, widespread immigration into Europe began after World War II, as large numbers of mostly low-skilled labourers from Turkey, North Africa and the UK’s former colonies in South Asia were encouraged to come in search of work.

The children of those immigrants, in some cases, are accused of not assimilating to European culture. This divide, however, could be based more on class than religion.

In contrast to Europe, Muslims in the US are among the most highly educated demographics. Forty-three per cent of Muslim American women hold college degrees, compared with 29 per cent of American women overall, making them the second-best educated religious group following American Jews, according to a 2009 Gallup poll.

Debates in the US about Latino immigration share similar rhetorical overtones with European discourse about Muslim immigrants.

Successful models

From the perspective of national interest, Canada’s immigration policies - which prioritise skilled workers and investors - may offer the best model.

“In proportion to its population, Canada naturalises the most people in the world by far,” Janoski said. “Canadian immigration policy is really focused on economic growth,” where immigrant investors or skilled workers are given preference over family reunification which drives the model in the US and other countries, he said.

“That is why they came up with the policy for Chinese entrepreneurs. When Hong Kong [formerly a British colony] went back to the Chinese, they [Canada] gave relatively quick citizenship to businessmen.”

Recently, Filipinos have become one of Canada’s largest immigrant groups, with many first arriving as domestic helpers or temporary healthcare workers before gaining citizenship.

These professions are fundamentally linked with demographics, as most wealthy countries will be hiring more healthcare professionals in the coming years.

“People are looking for options because of the costs associated with care,” said Taillon. “A lot of people are going the way of international nannies because they see it is a better option.”

The employment rate for foreign-born citizens of Canada is actually higher than for native-born Canadians, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported. By 2031, one in three workers in Canada is projected to be foreign-born, according to government statistics. This trend should cushion the country from the baby bust.

For Europe and Japan in particular, the choice seems stark. “Countries that do not wish to open their doors to immigration will be forced to rely more on other policies to shoulder the burden of population ageing,” Sumption, from the Migration Policy Institute, said. “For example, retirement ages may have to rise faster and tax burdens may have to increase.

“Like immigration, these other policies are also politically controversial and painful to implement.”


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ageing; moralabsolutes; population; prolife
In contrast to Europe, Muslims in the US are among the most highly educated demographics. Forty-three per cent of Muslim American women hold college degrees, compared with 29 per cent of American women overall, making them the second-best educated religious group following American Jews, according to a 2009 Gallup poll.
1 posted on 10/30/2011 12:35:27 PM PDT by Cardhu
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To: Cardhu
Forty-three per cent of Muslim American women hold college degrees

How many of those are "Islamic Studies" degrees?

2 posted on 10/30/2011 12:42:07 PM PDT by SkyPilot
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To: Cardhu

Should make all the population control fruitcakes really happy


3 posted on 10/30/2011 12:45:40 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: Cardhu

Why are we importing and educating all these Muslims?

National suicide?


4 posted on 10/30/2011 12:48:54 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: SkyPilot

I doubt that many woman waste their time or money on “Islamic Studies,” as many as the number of Christian women that graduate from Seminaries.

Only wealthy muslim women can afford to travel the world to attend the most prestigous colleges.


5 posted on 10/30/2011 12:50:54 PM PDT by Cardhu
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To: SkyPilot
How many of those are "Islamic Studies" degrees?

Very few, judging from what I've seen. Most of them go into the sciences. Wouldn't you if you were a Muslim woman? Why even ask that?

6 posted on 10/30/2011 12:54:27 PM PDT by x
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To: Cardhu
When they make it so expensive for working folks to start and raise a family, people like me delay getting married until their thirties. Lots of rice and beans once our only child was born!

You've taxed the honest tax payers into poverty. Guess that was the intention all along.

So now there solution is to bring in immigrants and educate them. Well fine, but they bring their culture with them good or bad. Bring them in with their hands out and that's what you'll be left with.

Should have gamed the system like the rest of the leaches! Couldn't do it because I had a conscience.

7 posted on 10/30/2011 12:56:08 PM PDT by poobear (Facts, the TURD in the punchbowl of Liberal thought!)
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: Cardhu

Here I go again, politically incorrect, annoyingly right:

This is one reason for immigration run amok. Mexicans breed like rabbits, work their tails off, and make great soldiers.

Just telling the truth.

Flame on.


9 posted on 10/30/2011 12:58:12 PM PDT by Jedidah
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To: dragnet2
National suicide?

Maybe this is how nations die. After all the basic values and the heroes that created it have been deconstructed and generally trashed and all the foundation myths have been traded in for hedonism and bucket lists where is the logic for either sex to invest in a family and procreate a new generation. We may not like them but the Muslims are staying true to their beliefs.

10 posted on 10/30/2011 1:00:31 PM PDT by Calusa (The pump don't work cause the vandals took the handles. Quoth Bob Dylan.)
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To: Cardhu

Thank you abortionists.

The only reason that we have educated Muslim women here is that they couldn’t get educated in their home countries, and I’d bet that most of them would be either executed or put under house arrest as soon as they arrived at their home countries.

The US, by sucking up to Islam, has totally dumped women who had the misfortune to be born in Muslim countries. But that’s okay, even the shawl-wearing Hillary Clinton seems to feel it’s cool.


11 posted on 10/30/2011 1:01:53 PM PDT by livius
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To: Cardhu

to stupid or given to self indulgence to reproduce.

feminism and the left.


12 posted on 10/30/2011 1:06:51 PM PDT by ken21
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To: Cardhu

Mark Steyn wrote about this a few years ago in America Alone.


13 posted on 10/30/2011 1:20:13 PM PDT by jospehm20
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To: Cardhu
This story is from Al Jazeera.

Maybe that's why I didn't see a single reference to the words JIHADI or CAR BOMB.

Immigration = "GOOOOOOOOOD". Yeah, we get it.

14 posted on 10/30/2011 1:33:54 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: Jedidah
Nobody is contesting your statement, I don't think.

They just need to be doing it south of the border and building up Mexico, instead of giving left-wing agitators another group to play with up here.

15 posted on 10/30/2011 1:36:48 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: Calusa
Maybe this is how nations die. After all the basic values and the heroes that created it have been deconstructed and generally trashed and all the foundation myths have been traded in for hedonism and bucket lists where is the logic for either sex to invest in a family and procreate a new generation. We may not like them but the Muslims are staying true to their beliefs.

I read somewhere that up to 36% of women turning 40 in 2011 are without children in the urban areas of Scandinavia. And this is the semi-socialist utopia with government supported child care et cetera which the left says will help women to combine a career and family. As usual, throwing money at a problem does no good when it doesn't address the underlying civilizational issues which, of course, the left doesn't want to touch with a ten-foot pole.

16 posted on 10/30/2011 1:39:58 PM PDT by Aikonaa
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17 posted on 10/30/2011 1:45:07 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: Cardhu

It’s world wide. So any theories on why world’s women have turned away from having children? No confidence in men? or the future? economic disadvantage of children? Marriage, sex and children have been separated. Of course the pill has made it possible but its use is not required. It’s all women’s idea and men don’t give a crap.


18 posted on 10/30/2011 1:53:58 PM PDT by ex-snook ("above all things, truth beareth away the victory")
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To: Jedidah

They will save this nation demographically, and they will soon cast aside their leftist self-appointed leaders and become a great force for the right in this country. Inherently religious, hard working, and quite able in the armed forces they are a good addition to the melting pot.

Europe is attempting a similar thing but North Africans, Turks, and Muslims make for poor immigrants.


19 posted on 10/30/2011 3:08:51 PM PDT by Eyes Unclouded ("The word bipartisan means some larger-than-usual deception is being carried out." -George Carlin)
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To: dragnet2

The unreported stat is how many student visas are given to Muslim women to study here vs. Muslim men. In some universities with vast numbers of Middle Eastern students Muslim women are almost non-existent.


20 posted on 10/30/2011 3:17:57 PM PDT by Monterrosa-24 (...even more American that a French bikini and a Russian AK-47.)
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To: Cardhu; wagglebee; little jeremiah

In the US we have now aborted an entire generation and a half.

The 2 million aborted in 1973—the year of Roe v. Wade—would have entered the workforce around 1991.

The eighteen year olds of today were conceived around 1993.

So we have killed about 40 million in the “aborted generation”.

We made a “Choice” for the culture of death.


21 posted on 10/30/2011 4:54:40 PM PDT by lightman (Adjutorium nostrum (+) in nomine Domini)
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To: lightman
I hate to disillusion you, but since 1973 America has murdered AT LEAST 53 MILLION INNOCENT AMERICANS and that number is increasing at the rate of ONE EVERY 24 SECONDS.

Not only would many of these children be parents, some would even be grandparents (therefore, it's not inconceivable to say that the actual number of unborn Americans is over 80 million).

It's also worth noting that programs like Social Security and Medicaid would be TOTALLY SOLVENT had America not murdered a generation of taxpayers and consumers.

22 posted on 10/30/2011 5:00:07 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: Cardhu; lightman; 185JHP; 230FMJ; AKA Elena; Albion Wilde; Aleighanne; Alexander Rubin; ...
Moral Absolutes Ping!

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23 posted on 10/30/2011 5:03:09 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: wagglebee
It's also worth noting that programs like Social Security and Medicaid would be TOTALLY SOLVENT had America not murdered a generation of taxpayers and consumers

I've been (literally) preaching that since 1992--the time that the first Aborted Generation would have reached adulthood.

24 posted on 10/30/2011 5:13:28 PM PDT by lightman (Adjutorium nostrum (+) in nomine Domini)
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To: lightman
Any conman can tell you that the key to a successful Ponzi scheme is an ever-growing group of new investors.

The Baby Boomers were the most spoiled and selfish generation in history. The first thing they demanded was sex without consequences, so they got the Pill. Then they wanted total immunity from consequences, so they got abortion. What they failed to realize is that they were murdering the people necessary to fund their retirement.

25 posted on 10/30/2011 5:27:51 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: wagglebee

What goes around gets around, and that scares me because I’m a “Boomer”.


26 posted on 10/30/2011 5:45:57 PM PDT by lightman (Adjutorium nostrum (+) in nomine Domini)
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To: lightman
World history is full of examples of the enormous consequences of a dramatic shift in population growth.

The ONLY times these catastrophes have had positive economic effects have been instances like the Black Death where the population decline hit all ages pretty much equally.

27 posted on 10/30/2011 5:54:31 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: Jedidah

First generation, somewhat. Second generation and after, not so much.

The kids don’t want to live like their folks.


28 posted on 10/30/2011 6:24:11 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: lightman

The boomers are going to have a very horrible end.

There is no money, and no family, to care for many of them.


29 posted on 10/30/2011 6:27:02 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Eyes Unclouded

You should read more..


30 posted on 10/31/2011 8:08:05 AM PDT by wardaddy (Ethnonationalist...I'll cop to that.)
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31 posted on 10/31/2011 8:45:40 AM PDT by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: Cardhu

Thanks for posting this Cardhu!!


32 posted on 10/31/2011 7:18:57 PM PDT by Morgana (This space for rent.........cheap)
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