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Polling bounce for Obama?
Hotair ^ | 11/02/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 11/02/2011 9:21:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Until now, there hasn’t been much indication in national polling that Barack Obama’s embrace of class-warfare rhetoric had gained him much standing with the electorate. On September 8, when Obama gave his jobs speech to a joint session of Congress and kicked off his new populist strategy, the Real Clear Politics poll average for Obama’s job approval was 43.8/51.6. Yesterday’s was 44.0/50.9, hardly any change at all, and the chart shows a more stable period than anything preceding it this year.

Today, however, Quinnipiac reports a moderate boost in Obama’s standing to 47/49, up from last month’s 41/55:

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is up, from a negative 41 – 55 percent October 5, to a split today with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The president has leads of 5 to 16 percentage points over likely Republican challengers.

Voters also are divided 47 – 49 percent on whether Obama deserves reelection, compared to last month, when voters said 54 – 42 percent he did not deserve reelection.

Not so fast, says National Journal’s Steven Shepard:

Obama “seems to be improving in voters’ eyes almost across-the-board,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “He scores big gains among the groups with whom he has had the most problems — whites and men. Women also shift from a five-point negative to a four-point positive.”

In addition to his improved approval rating, Obama also leads Romney, his closest GOP challenger, by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent, turning around a four-point deficit a month ago. Obama posts double-digit leads — and clears the crucial 50-percent threshold — over Cain (50 percent to 40 percent), Gingrich (52 percent to 37 percent) and Perry (52 percent to 36 percent).

Still, there are indications that the poll could just be a blip. There is little change in the crosstabs by party from last month, when Romney led Obama by four points. Independents broke for Romney by five points in each survey, yet, overall, there was a nine-point swing. It simply appears that this month’s sample is significantly more Democratic.

Shepard asked Quinnipiac to release their demographics in both surveys to check sampling. So far, they haven’t responded. However, if the results by party in both polls are identical and yet Obama gained in popularity, then Shepard is probably correct that the new sample included more Democrats at the expense of either Republicans, independents, or both.

Among Republican primary voters, Herman Cain has a significant lead over Mitt Romney, 30/23, and beats Romney 47/39 in a two-man race for the nomination. However, almost all of this polling took place before the Politico story about two settlements over harassment claims at the National Restaurant Association. So far that story doesn’t seem to be gaining traction among GOP primary voters and might even be attracting support for Cain as he fights the national media. This Q-poll will serve as a pretty good baseline for future polling to determine whether Cain ends up damaged or helped by the imbroglio this week.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2011polls; bounce; obama; poll

1 posted on 11/02/2011 9:21:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Despite his new populist rhetoric, Obama hasn’t moved to 50%. His gain is likely to be ephemeral.


2 posted on 11/02/2011 9:25:29 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind

Probably a poll paid for Obama himself because nothing has happened in the past three weeks that could possibly change any forecasts for him.

The internet is making it really hard for old school politicians to peddle outright lies.


3 posted on 11/02/2011 9:26:35 AM PDT by Noamie
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To: goldstategop

If these damn Republicans stop acting like asses anyone of them could win. Why they fight eachother and not him I so not know.


4 posted on 11/02/2011 9:27:51 AM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: SeekAndFind

Look, the polling numbers are not static, they are going to move, but trends and trend lines are what matter. I ain’t buyin what their trying to sell, namely that Obama is on an upswing. There really is no evidence of that. Polling statistical noise is all I see here.


5 posted on 11/02/2011 9:27:53 AM PDT by Obadiah (I owe a lot to my parents, especially my mother and father.)
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To: GoCards

The’re not acting


6 posted on 11/02/2011 9:29:34 AM PDT by clamper1797 (Hoping to have some change left)
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To: SeekAndFind
From October 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,294 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
7 posted on 11/02/2011 9:30:20 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama’s bouncing like a sack of manure


8 posted on 11/02/2011 9:32:45 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SeekAndFind
Don't believe in polls but..Of the two thousand blacks they polled nothing has changed they will vote for the moron for Obama money..I still laugh when I remember FOX news reporter going out and talking to blacks in line that said they were waiting for their Obama money..
9 posted on 11/02/2011 9:33:52 AM PDT by PLD
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To: SeekAndFind

Today, however, Quinnipiac reports a moderate boost in Obama’s standing to 47/49, up from last month’s 41/55:

Just a wet fart in the scheme of things...FAIL!


10 posted on 11/02/2011 9:34:26 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Sooth2222

His rating could have also taken a drop.

Obama’s biggest problem is overexposure. There’s no mystery to him and no change in rhetoric can conceal his policies or lack of them.

No poll this quarter has showing him hitting 50% and registered voter polls are Democrat-friendly.


11 posted on 11/02/2011 9:34:52 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind

Until the sampling data shows 35% Rep, 35% Dem, 30% Ind, there is not a lot of honest information to be gleaned from this. Whenever I see a poll result, I check the bias that they have built in and it reliably skews the results. This one, like most, is crap.


12 posted on 11/02/2011 9:36:20 AM PDT by festusbanjo (Herman Cain.The Un-Obama.Actual leadership,actual problem solving,actual experience.)
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To: Sooth2222

These are not the demographics of the poll, at least not thr important ones.

We need to see the %’s of Rep,Dems and Ind included in the survey. Liberal pollsters have a habit of oversampling the dems by anywhere from 6-8 points.

After that there would need to be other polls confirming these numbers. The only news last month, especially when this poll was taken was the market set a near term record for gains in the month of Sept.

There are ignorant people out there who believe the market is the economy, it is not.


13 posted on 11/02/2011 9:42:44 AM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: PLD

“I still laugh when I remember FOX news reporter going out and talking to blacks in line that said they were waiting for their Obama money.”

Non-Breaking news: They are still waiting and they will vote for him anyway.


14 posted on 11/02/2011 10:05:40 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Madoff screwed the rich. Bernanke screwed us all.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The demographic summary of the Quinnipiac poll was posted on the firm's web site (HotAir missed it). Here:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Republican 22%
Democrat 35%
Independent 36%
Other 6%
DK/NA 2%

This is not even high enough on the polling quality scale to qualify as bullshit.

15 posted on 11/02/2011 10:13:08 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: 101voodoo

See my post #15.


16 posted on 11/02/2011 10:14:47 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: GoCards

1000%....the Boehner better get his a$$ in gear as well...


17 posted on 11/02/2011 10:15:19 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama is very likely to be reelected, because the false beliefs among our people that led to his election in the first place have not really changed.


18 posted on 11/02/2011 10:17:19 AM PDT by Jim Noble (To live peacefully with credit-based consumption and fiat money, men would have to be angels.)
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To: SeekAndFind

From October 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,294 registered US voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. This margin of error applies to the information below based on total (Tot) registered voters.

Selected demographic distributions presented. Additional demographic information available by calling 203-582-5201 or emailing [april.radocchio@quinnipiac.edu]

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat,
an Independent, or what?

PARTY IDENTIFICATION Tot

Republican 22%
Democrat 35
Independent 36
Other 6
DK/NA 2


19 posted on 11/02/2011 10:26:00 AM PDT by jwalsh07 (t)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama is getting a fairly significant Gallup bump as well. He was down in the high 30’s for awhile, but as of today he is back to 45% approval.

Class warfare rhetoric works. Also, the occupypublicparks crowd have helped him change the subject from government incompetence and debt to the supposed evil banks. The reason the media give these vermin sitting in parks so much positive coverage is they know it will help Obama - and it looks like it is.


20 posted on 11/02/2011 10:28:26 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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