Skip to comments.Polling bounce for Obama?
Posted on 11/02/2011 9:21:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Until now, there hasn’t been much indication in national polling that Barack Obama’s embrace of class-warfare rhetoric had gained him much standing with the electorate. On September 8, when Obama gave his jobs speech to a joint session of Congress and kicked off his new populist strategy, the Real Clear Politics poll average for Obama’s job approval was 43.8/51.6. Yesterday’s was 44.0/50.9, hardly any change at all, and the chart shows a more stable period than anything preceding it this year.
Today, however, Quinnipiac reports a moderate boost in Obama’s standing to 47/49, up from last month’s 41/55:
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is up, from a negative 41 – 55 percent October 5, to a split today with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The president has leads of 5 to 16 percentage points over likely Republican challengers.
Voters also are divided 47 – 49 percent on whether Obama deserves reelection, compared to last month, when voters said 54 – 42 percent he did not deserve reelection.
Not so fast, says National Journal’s Steven Shepard:
Obama “seems to be improving in voters’ eyes almost across-the-board,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “He scores big gains among the groups with whom he has had the most problems — whites and men. Women also shift from a five-point negative to a four-point positive.”
In addition to his improved approval rating, Obama also leads Romney, his closest GOP challenger, by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent, turning around a four-point deficit a month ago. Obama posts double-digit leads — and clears the crucial 50-percent threshold — over Cain (50 percent to 40 percent), Gingrich (52 percent to 37 percent) and Perry (52 percent to 36 percent).
Still, there are indications that the poll could just be a blip. There is little change in the crosstabs by party from last month, when Romney led Obama by four points. Independents broke for Romney by five points in each survey, yet, overall, there was a nine-point swing. It simply appears that this month’s sample is significantly more Democratic.
Shepard asked Quinnipiac to release their demographics in both surveys to check sampling. So far, they haven’t responded. However, if the results by party in both polls are identical and yet Obama gained in popularity, then Shepard is probably correct that the new sample included more Democrats at the expense of either Republicans, independents, or both.
Among Republican primary voters, Herman Cain has a significant lead over Mitt Romney, 30/23, and beats Romney 47/39 in a two-man race for the nomination. However, almost all of this polling took place before the Politico story about two settlements over harassment claims at the National Restaurant Association. So far that story doesn’t seem to be gaining traction among GOP primary voters and might even be attracting support for Cain as he fights the national media. This Q-poll will serve as a pretty good baseline for future polling to determine whether Cain ends up damaged or helped by the imbroglio this week.
Despite his new populist rhetoric, Obama hasn’t moved to 50%. His gain is likely to be ephemeral.
Probably a poll paid for Obama himself because nothing has happened in the past three weeks that could possibly change any forecasts for him.
The internet is making it really hard for old school politicians to peddle outright lies.
If these damn Republicans stop acting like asses anyone of them could win. Why they fight eachother and not him I so not know.
Look, the polling numbers are not static, they are going to move, but trends and trend lines are what matter. I ain’t buyin what their trying to sell, namely that Obama is on an upswing. There really is no evidence of that. Polling statistical noise is all I see here.
The’re not acting
Obama’s bouncing like a sack of manure
Today, however, Quinnipiac reports a moderate boost in Obamas standing to 47/49, up from last months 41/55:
Just a wet fart in the scheme of things...FAIL!
His rating could have also taken a drop.
Obama’s biggest problem is overexposure. There’s no mystery to him and no change in rhetoric can conceal his policies or lack of them.
No poll this quarter has showing him hitting 50% and registered voter polls are Democrat-friendly.
Until the sampling data shows 35% Rep, 35% Dem, 30% Ind, there is not a lot of honest information to be gleaned from this. Whenever I see a poll result, I check the bias that they have built in and it reliably skews the results. This one, like most, is crap.
These are not the demographics of the poll, at least not thr important ones.
We need to see the %’s of Rep,Dems and Ind included in the survey. Liberal pollsters have a habit of oversampling the dems by anywhere from 6-8 points.
After that there would need to be other polls confirming these numbers. The only news last month, especially when this poll was taken was the market set a near term record for gains in the month of Sept.
There are ignorant people out there who believe the market is the economy, it is not.
“I still laugh when I remember FOX news reporter going out and talking to blacks in line that said they were waiting for their Obama money.”
Non-Breaking news: They are still waiting and they will vote for him anyway.
This is not even high enough on the polling quality scale to qualify as bullshit.
See my post #15.
1000%....the Boehner better get his a$$ in gear as well...
Obama is very likely to be reelected, because the false beliefs among our people that led to his election in the first place have not really changed.
From October 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,294 registered US voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. This margin of error applies to the information below based on total (Tot) registered voters.
Selected demographic distributions presented. Additional demographic information available by calling 203-582-5201 or emailing [firstname.lastname@example.org]
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat,
an Independent, or what?
PARTY IDENTIFICATION Tot
Obama is getting a fairly significant Gallup bump as well. He was down in the high 30’s for awhile, but as of today he is back to 45% approval.
Class warfare rhetoric works. Also, the occupypublicparks crowd have helped him change the subject from government incompetence and debt to the supposed evil banks. The reason the media give these vermin sitting in parks so much positive coverage is they know it will help Obama - and it looks like it is.