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Iran will be able to build nuclear bomb within months, IAEA says
Yossi Melman ^ | Latest update 09:31 07.11.11

Posted on 11/07/2011 3:13:21 AM PST by maquiladora

Iran has already acquired the knowledge, technology, and resources to create a nuclear bomb within months, according to Western experts who were briefed on the intelligence information due to be released in this week's report by the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency.

According to the experts, Iranian scientists acquired the knowledge with the help of weapons scientists from Russia, Pakistan and North Korea.

Haaretz reported last week that other experts also estimated that Iran could assemble a nuclear bomb within months and carry out an underground nuclear experiment if it wishes to do so.

(snip)

New disclosures in the IAEA report provide details on an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected, The Washington Post said.

(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Israel; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dnc4iranbomb; elbaradeibomb; elbaradeisbomb; iaea; iaea4holocaust; iaea4iranbomb; iaeabomb; iaeaignoredmullahs; iran; israel; nuclear; obama4iranbomb
Tick tock, tick tock...
1 posted on 11/07/2011 3:13:24 AM PST by maquiladora
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To: maquiladora
Thank you ZERO
For this and many other "BAD" things your Change brought. . . .
2 posted on 11/07/2011 3:23:55 AM PST by DeaconRed (My Hat Don't Hang on the same Nail to Long. I am a CAT adjuster.)
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To: maquiladora

bttt


3 posted on 11/07/2011 3:24:40 AM PST by Matchett-PI ("A Republican Larry Flynt should wave around $50,000 for proof of sexual harassment at Politico" -RL)
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To: maquiladora

They have the bomb, they don’t have the bomb, they have the bomb, they stopped working on the bomb, they took their operations below ground, they don’t have the bomb, they will have the bomb in a few weeks. The New World Order group can never keep and lie straight.


4 posted on 11/07/2011 3:28:46 AM PST by bmwcyle (Obama is a Communist, a Muslim, and an illegal alien)
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To: maquiladora

5 posted on 11/07/2011 3:31:39 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (I won't vote for Romney. I won't vote for Perry.)
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To: maquiladora

I don’t trust the IAEA. They are about as anti-American as the UN.

Iran probably already has nukes.


6 posted on 11/07/2011 3:33:15 AM PST by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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Thanks maquiladora. The United / Untied Nations: 9/11 Denial et al:
7 posted on 11/07/2011 3:36:05 AM PST by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: maquiladora
When iran has the bomb they will test it, in downtown Tel Aviv.

They won't announce it, or hint at it, they will use it, straight away.

8 posted on 11/07/2011 3:39:36 AM PST by Kakaze (Exterminate Islamofacism and apologize for nothing....except not doing it sooner!)
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To: Kakaze

Yes: I believe you are correct in that supposition.

Why waste a good nuke in an underground test.

I might add that an underground test would be a mistake as it might, just might, put enough backbone into the spines of countries that need to stop Iran, to actually stop them—hard.


9 posted on 11/07/2011 3:47:55 AM PST by Venturer
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To: ClearCase_guy

That picture pisses me off every time its posted.


10 posted on 11/07/2011 3:49:01 AM PST by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: Venturer
Why waste a good nuke in an underground test.

The uranium would have to be compressed enough to go critical and that's difficult to accomplish. The conventional explosives used to accomplish the compression may be testable using a substitute material. If that is the case (I have no idea), then is that test detectable? It would be a relatively small explosion, so I doubt it. If it works (again I have no idea if it is sufficient) then all they would have to do is assemble the bomb with the real material. Then there is no need to test with a nuclear explosion.

11 posted on 11/07/2011 3:54:55 AM PST by palmer (Before reading this post, please send me $2.50)
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To: maquiladora
Will Israel do anything? How far will Obama go to stop Israel doing anything?
12 posted on 11/07/2011 3:55:50 AM PST by Truth29
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To: maquiladora
But what type? Uranium gun barrel device? Or the far more sophisticated plutonium implosion device? The former easy to do if you have enough uranium 235, but the latter very hard to do unless you know how to very tightly control the implosion process.
13 posted on 11/07/2011 4:06:44 AM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: Venturer

Can’t they just use a computer model to tell them if it will work? Seems to me Hazel O’Leary was trying to release those codes during her reign of terror


14 posted on 11/07/2011 4:27:03 AM PST by South Dakota (shut up and drill)
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To: maquiladora

to accept a nuclear armed Iran (and a defacto ME nuclear arms race) or hurry up and bomb its nuke facilities . . .

not a lot of good options here


15 posted on 11/07/2011 4:30:43 AM PST by jhpigott (North Korea - The land of lousy options)
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To: MississippiMan; ctdonath2; LibertyRocks; GonzoGOP; b4its2late; bert; maquiladora; hennie pennie; ...

ping

Analysis: Chances slim for stiffer UN sanctions on Iran

UNITED NATIONS - There is little chance that the UN Security Council will impose tough new sanctions on Iran anytime soon, despite a new UN report expected this week to contain evidence suggesting Iran wants atomic weapons.

The reason for this, Western diplomats say, is the reluctance of Tehran’s traditional sympathizers China and Russia, which have the power to veto any council resolution, to sanction Iran’s oil and gas sectors.

As a result, it will be hard to get anything out of the UN that is tougher than the last round of Iran sanctions passed in June 2010.

“The reality is that a new substantive step forward on sanctions will be very difficult,” a senior Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/OpinionAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=244650


16 posted on 11/07/2011 4:32:03 AM PST by jhpigott (North Korea - The land of lousy options)
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To: jhpigott

14:10 Condoleezza Rice to Newsmax: I have no doubt Israel will defend itself against Iran (Haaretz)


17 posted on 11/07/2011 4:35:34 AM PST by jhpigott (North Korea - The land of lousy options)
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To: bmwcyle

They have the scientist, boom, they don’t have the scientist.


18 posted on 11/07/2011 4:37:23 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: maquiladora

“an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected”

Being constantly surprised is, I believe, a rather natural consequence of “leading from behind.” I’d rather have a president who was pro-active, anticipating dangers before they arrive etc. rather than always being behind the eight ball...GWB can be justly criticized for his domestic policy goofs, but at least he was a hands-on CINC who took those responsibilities seriously.


19 posted on 11/07/2011 4:40:41 AM PST by DrC
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To: maquiladora
"Iran could assemble a nuclear bomb within months and carry out an underground nuclear experiment if it wishes"

Good Question, will the Iranians test? or will they gear up into mass production without a test?

An underground test is the tripwire that Israel is waiting for, Israel needs world opinion on their side before launching a "Pearl Harbor" style attack and positive proof of a successful Iranian underground test will provide it.

20 posted on 11/07/2011 4:58:49 AM PST by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: bert

That also.


21 posted on 11/07/2011 5:08:27 AM PST by bmwcyle (Obama is a Communist, a Muslim, and an illegal alien)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

22 posted on 11/07/2011 5:09:39 AM PST by SJackson (Haven't changed the environment, just take a bath. Eat a piece of chocolate. You need one. Michelle)
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To: maquiladora

Don’t worry about Iran: they’re at least 10 years away from being able to build a bomb.

-Liberal talking points, circa 1995


23 posted on 11/07/2011 5:14:48 AM PST by Tzimisce (Never forget that the American Revolution began when the British tried to disarm the colonists.)
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To: maquiladora

Thank god Iran is a peaceful state with a long history of Human rights or I’d be worried. :)


24 posted on 11/07/2011 5:16:37 AM PST by Tzimisce (Never forget that the American Revolution began when the British tried to disarm the colonists.)
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To: bert

Statement today from the rather dovish Israeli President, Shimon Peres -

“The possibility of a military attack against Iran is closer than the diplomatic option,” the president said in an interview with the daily Israel Hayom .

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/israel-military-attack-against-iran.html


25 posted on 11/07/2011 5:17:00 AM PST by jhpigott (North Korea - The land of lousy options)
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To: jhpigott

I cannot see Russia/China agreeing to any new sanctions, and even if they somehow did agree in maybe 6 months time after some new revelation, the sanctions are not going to be the effective type that Israel would want anyway.

It might all be irrelevant anyway.

It’s been reported before that Iran may be planning to move all of its 20% enriched uranium to the Qom nuclear site which is under a mountain, before the end of the year.

If they do that then that gives them the option of shutting the doors to Qom any time they like and let the world guess whether they are doing the final step and enriching the uranium to weapons grade.

No conventional bunker buster could do anything about it.

I think Israel would obviously prefer to face the consequences of a conventional pre-emptive strike while it still can rather than wait and be left with facing the consequences of an Israel nuclear first strike against Iran.

The next few weeks could be absolutely critical.


26 posted on 11/07/2011 5:56:20 AM PST by maquiladora
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To: maquiladora
carry out an underground nuclear experiment

Why bother with underground testing?

Just do it above ground. Nobody's gunna stop 'em.

27 posted on 11/07/2011 5:57:14 AM PST by super7man
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To: maquiladora

Wasn’t aware of the report that Iran may move all of its 20% enriched uranium to the Qom site. That really does put an expiration on any conventional strike option against the program.

I think it’s also telling that our defense establishment is growing increasingly concerned with the likelihood of a unilateral Isareli strike. Panetta didn’t get the warm fuzzies after meeting with Netanyahu/Barak, along with Barbara Starr’s report that we are actively monitoring Israeli/Iranian military movements


28 posted on 11/07/2011 6:56:45 AM PST by jhpigott (North Korea - The land of lousy options)
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To: RayChuang88

Smart money says it’s a U235 implosion device, like the South African bomb.


29 posted on 11/07/2011 8:02:12 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Kakaze
What ever happened to Stuxnet?


30 posted on 11/07/2011 8:43:21 AM PST by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; one box left.)
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To: jhpigott
Thanks for the pig JH.

We do have one option remaining.

Blockade.

One of three things will come from a blockade and while the chances are SLIM it still provides a chance to avoid all-out war.

1. The economic pinch works and the mullahs decide to play nice...or the Iranian people finally rise against the regime.

2. Iran goes on the offensive in the Persian Gulf sinking and shooting everything they can reach. Still keeps the nuke genie in the bottle.

3. Iran accelerates the assembly of nukes precipitating total war.

I like the blockade option. It has a more favorable political dynamic for the US and gets us to the same place anyway.

31 posted on 11/07/2011 9:09:22 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Jewbacca

I thought it was the Uranium PU-38 explosive space modulator???


32 posted on 11/07/2011 9:14:34 AM PST by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: maquiladora

Yeah, zeros October suprise. Iran would have nuked Israel years ago if the were not such incompentent boobs.


33 posted on 11/07/2011 10:15:23 AM PST by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: Jewbacca
Actually, I think you're referring to a plutonium-239 based implosion device, which is what the Fat Man bomb is based upon. But since Iran has not said anything openly about refining plutonium, so the more likely device is a uranium-235 based gun barrel device of around 12-15 kT in yield.
34 posted on 11/07/2011 3:56:05 PM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: RayChuang88

“Actually, I think you’re referring to a plutonium-239 based implosion device, which is what the Fat Man bomb is based upon. But since Iran has not said anything openly about refining plutonium, so the more likely device is a uranium-235 based gun barrel device of around 12-15 kT in yield.”

Nope.

The Iranian bomb is almost certainly based on the Pakistani bomb (which was based on the South African bomb, which was based on the Chinese bomb)is a U235 implosion device, requiring somewhere between 12 and 20kg of U235 to work.

In fact, most of the Chinese bombs are U235 implosion weapons, coupled with fusion kickers.

A U235 implosion weapon is not quite as efficient as a Plutonium bomb (or a Plutonium U-235 alloy), but it is much easier to produce U235, and requires far less U235 than a gun-type weapon.

They are also lighter and much easier to stick on the end of a missle.

Here:

http://www.iranwatch.org/ourpubs/articles/iranucleartimetable.html


35 posted on 11/08/2011 7:38:40 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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