Skip to comments.Iran will be able to build nuclear bomb within months, IAEA says
Posted on 11/07/2011 3:13:21 AM PST by maquiladora
Iran has already acquired the knowledge, technology, and resources to create a nuclear bomb within months, according to Western experts who were briefed on the intelligence information due to be released in this week's report by the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to the experts, Iranian scientists acquired the knowledge with the help of weapons scientists from Russia, Pakistan and North Korea.
Haaretz reported last week that other experts also estimated that Iran could assemble a nuclear bomb within months and carry out an underground nuclear experiment if it wishes to do so.
New disclosures in the IAEA report provide details on an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected, The Washington Post said.
(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...
They have the bomb, they don’t have the bomb, they have the bomb, they stopped working on the bomb, they took their operations below ground, they don’t have the bomb, they will have the bomb in a few weeks. The New World Order group can never keep and lie straight.
I don’t trust the IAEA. They are about as anti-American as the UN.
Iran probably already has nukes.
They won't announce it, or hint at it, they will use it, straight away.
Yes: I believe you are correct in that supposition.
Why waste a good nuke in an underground test.
I might add that an underground test would be a mistake as it might, just might, put enough backbone into the spines of countries that need to stop Iran, to actually stop them—hard.
That picture pisses me off every time its posted.
The uranium would have to be compressed enough to go critical and that's difficult to accomplish. The conventional explosives used to accomplish the compression may be testable using a substitute material. If that is the case (I have no idea), then is that test detectable? It would be a relatively small explosion, so I doubt it. If it works (again I have no idea if it is sufficient) then all they would have to do is assemble the bomb with the real material. Then there is no need to test with a nuclear explosion.
Can’t they just use a computer model to tell them if it will work? Seems to me Hazel O’Leary was trying to release those codes during her reign of terror
to accept a nuclear armed Iran (and a defacto ME nuclear arms race) or hurry up and bomb its nuke facilities . . .
not a lot of good options here
Analysis: Chances slim for stiffer UN sanctions on Iran
UNITED NATIONS - There is little chance that the UN Security Council will impose tough new sanctions on Iran anytime soon, despite a new UN report expected this week to contain evidence suggesting Iran wants atomic weapons.
The reason for this, Western diplomats say, is the reluctance of Tehran’s traditional sympathizers China and Russia, which have the power to veto any council resolution, to sanction Iran’s oil and gas sectors.
As a result, it will be hard to get anything out of the UN that is tougher than the last round of Iran sanctions passed in June 2010.
“The reality is that a new substantive step forward on sanctions will be very difficult,” a senior Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
14:10 Condoleezza Rice to Newsmax: I have no doubt Israel will defend itself against Iran (Haaretz)
They have the scientist, boom, they don’t have the scientist.
“an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected”
Being constantly surprised is, I believe, a rather natural consequence of “leading from behind.” I’d rather have a president who was pro-active, anticipating dangers before they arrive etc. rather than always being behind the eight ball...GWB can be justly criticized for his domestic policy goofs, but at least he was a hands-on CINC who took those responsibilities seriously.
Good Question, will the Iranians test? or will they gear up into mass production without a test?
An underground test is the tripwire that Israel is waiting for, Israel needs world opinion on their side before launching a "Pearl Harbor" style attack and positive proof of a successful Iranian underground test will provide it.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
Don’t worry about Iran: they’re at least 10 years away from being able to build a bomb.
-Liberal talking points, circa 1995
Thank god Iran is a peaceful state with a long history of Human rights or I’d be worried. :)
Statement today from the rather dovish Israeli President, Shimon Peres -
“The possibility of a military attack against Iran is closer than the diplomatic option,” the president said in an interview with the daily Israel Hayom .
I cannot see Russia/China agreeing to any new sanctions, and even if they somehow did agree in maybe 6 months time after some new revelation, the sanctions are not going to be the effective type that Israel would want anyway.
It might all be irrelevant anyway.
It’s been reported before that Iran may be planning to move all of its 20% enriched uranium to the Qom nuclear site which is under a mountain, before the end of the year.
If they do that then that gives them the option of shutting the doors to Qom any time they like and let the world guess whether they are doing the final step and enriching the uranium to weapons grade.
No conventional bunker buster could do anything about it.
I think Israel would obviously prefer to face the consequences of a conventional pre-emptive strike while it still can rather than wait and be left with facing the consequences of an Israel nuclear first strike against Iran.
The next few weeks could be absolutely critical.
Why bother with underground testing?
Just do it above ground. Nobody's gunna stop 'em.
Wasn’t aware of the report that Iran may move all of its 20% enriched uranium to the Qom site. That really does put an expiration on any conventional strike option against the program.
I think it’s also telling that our defense establishment is growing increasingly concerned with the likelihood of a unilateral Isareli strike. Panetta didn’t get the warm fuzzies after meeting with Netanyahu/Barak, along with Barbara Starr’s report that we are actively monitoring Israeli/Iranian military movements
Smart money says it’s a U235 implosion device, like the South African bomb.
We do have one option remaining.
One of three things will come from a blockade and while the chances are SLIM it still provides a chance to avoid all-out war.
1. The economic pinch works and the mullahs decide to play nice...or the Iranian people finally rise against the regime.
2. Iran goes on the offensive in the Persian Gulf sinking and shooting everything they can reach. Still keeps the nuke genie in the bottle.
3. Iran accelerates the assembly of nukes precipitating total war.
I like the blockade option. It has a more favorable political dynamic for the US and gets us to the same place anyway.
I thought it was the Uranium PU-38 explosive space modulator???
Yeah, zeros October suprise. Iran would have nuked Israel years ago if the were not such incompentent boobs.
“Actually, I think you’re referring to a plutonium-239 based implosion device, which is what the Fat Man bomb is based upon. But since Iran has not said anything openly about refining plutonium, so the more likely device is a uranium-235 based gun barrel device of around 12-15 kT in yield.”
The Iranian bomb is almost certainly based on the Pakistani bomb (which was based on the South African bomb, which was based on the Chinese bomb)is a U235 implosion device, requiring somewhere between 12 and 20kg of U235 to work.
In fact, most of the Chinese bombs are U235 implosion weapons, coupled with fusion kickers.
A U235 implosion weapon is not quite as efficient as a Plutonium bomb (or a Plutonium U-235 alloy), but it is much easier to produce U235, and requires far less U235 than a gun-type weapon.
They are also lighter and much easier to stick on the end of a missle.