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PPP Poll: SB 5 headed for big defeat (Kasich's Collective Bargaining Bill might not pass)
Public Policy Polling ^ | 11/07/2011

Posted on 11/07/2011 11:07:54 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday. PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.

What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it's exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we've found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don't have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.

The news isn't all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama's health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the 'no' side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.

Our number suggest that voters may not really understand what Issue 3 is. For instance 18% of Republicans say they oppose it, and we never found anywhere close to 18% of Ohio Republicans supportive of the health care bill when we were polling on it last year. At the same time Democrats only oppose Issue 3 by a 51/29 margin, and we never found anywhere close to 29% of Democrats opposed to Obama's health care plan last year. That lack of understanding about what exactly Issue 3 is has 16% of voters still undecided so this could end up closer than the polling currently indicates.

Issue 1, which would make a bunch of changes to the judicial system in Ohio, is trailing for passage by a 48/27 margin but this is another one where voters don't really understand what it's about, with 25% still undecided. Unlike the other two issues this one isn't terribly polarizing along party lines- Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike are opposed to it.

One other note on the Issue 2 polling- PPP was criticized both by supporters of Issue 2 and by opponents after its last poll for not using the exact language on the ballot. We felt giving a synopsis of what Issue 2 was about rather than using the exact language was appropriate because of the confusion over what exactly a yes vote and a no vote on the issue meant. For this final poll we used the exact ballot language, and then on a question later in the survey asked again using the language from our earlier polls, which was 'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?' Using that language we found 59% of voters for rejection, just like we found 59% for rejection using the exact ballot language. Given that we think even more now that it was reasonable for us not to use the exact ballot language on our earlier polls.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: johnkasich; laborunion; ohio
See full results here
1 posted on 11/07/2011 11:07:57 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

This Ohioan is starting to look for the EXIT signs.


2 posted on 11/07/2011 11:12:40 AM PST by windsorknot
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To: SeekAndFind
I have no idea how this will pan out, but the wording of that poll question definitely makes me think the polls are not a proper gauge of this vote. It asks"

'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?'

You are simply going to get a lot of people against 'limiting' collective bargaining rights because it sounds ominous when framed like that. Hopefully, there is enough awareness advertisements around Ohio, especially in conservative areas to get people to the polls and understand that this is a nominal change to the collective bargaining system.

3 posted on 11/07/2011 11:12:47 AM PST by ilgipper (Everything you get from the government was taken from someone else)
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To: SeekAndFind

OK. Give the unions all the goodies. Then raise Ohioians taxes to pay for it. Idiots.


4 posted on 11/07/2011 11:14:55 AM PST by BO Stinkss
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To: SeekAndFind

If they vote it down than they can raise their taxes to support it....there will be no fed bailout. Stupidity is as stupidity does!!!


5 posted on 11/07/2011 11:15:38 AM PST by ontap
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To: ilgipper
you are right ..limiting is the wrong word....eliminating is the right one!!!
6 posted on 11/07/2011 11:17:01 AM PST by ontap
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To: SeekAndFind

If Ohio voters are stupid enough to vote to pay government employees twice as much as they make in the private sector, plus financing their free health insurance and outrageously cushy retirement system, then let Ohio go broke.

Just don’t cone begging for help from voters in sane states who have much better sense than to believe that Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy will provide a bailout for profligate states.. We can see how the greedy government employees’ demands worked out in Greece.


7 posted on 11/07/2011 11:18:57 AM PST by txrefugee
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To: BO Stinkss
I don't believe any of this polling BS. It is just disinformation to sway voters who are undecided or to discourage voters so that they will not bother to vote.
8 posted on 11/07/2011 11:22:13 AM PST by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: BO Stinkss

Yup and the fools will whine when their taxes go up


9 posted on 11/07/2011 11:22:34 AM PST by 101voodoo
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To: windsorknot
So is this Ohioan.

The adds for repealing SB 5 are sickening. All of the teachers, nurses, police, fire fighters, etc... they are all “heroes”. Even John Glenn got into the mix with a TV add stating that voting YES on issue 2 is voting against the “heroes”.

I am offended. Apparently, going to work every day in the private sector, raising a family... that is not heroic.

You must be in a public sector union to be a hero.

Makes me want to projectile vomit!

10 posted on 11/07/2011 11:26:56 AM PST by thedrake
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To: 101voodoo

Taxes should be part of the question....Do you want A) collective bargaining rights limited or B) Your taxes to increase to balance the budget.

No more “fair” taxes where a few percent pay more. Let’s really make taxes fair and make everyone pay them.


11 posted on 11/07/2011 11:27:33 AM PST by No Socialist
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To: ontap
If they vote it down than they can raise their taxes to support it

If we vote it down, they are saying that there will be big layoffs of state employees to support it....silver lining I suppose.
12 posted on 11/07/2011 11:28:19 AM PST by mmichaels1970
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To: SeekAndFind

I always check the demographics. As usual, they lean Dem. Here are the numbers from PPP

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Independent/Other..........................................24%


13 posted on 11/07/2011 11:32:36 AM PST by marstegreg
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To: SeekAndFind

I advise Kasich to push a slightly modified version of the bill in the next session. A few changes should make the bill more palatable for most voters. Let the labor cartels kick and scream more.


14 posted on 11/07/2011 11:36:07 AM PST by businessprofessor
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To: SeekAndFind

I find it to be sad how this is seen as an all or nothing. Am I missing something here?

Does Ohio have a Republican Governor? Both chambers of the state legislature are Republican majorities?

So, SB5 passes. Go back to the drawing board, and do it as Kasich should have done in the first place. A little at a time, bite size pieces that votes can understand easily and the effects will be harder to obfuscate.

Or we could just say we’re all gonna die, Ohio is Greece and be done with it?


15 posted on 11/07/2011 11:41:16 AM PST by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: marstegreg

That won’t help. Quinnipiac found the same results. It won’t pass. Simply too much money and scare tactics have been used by the unions.


16 posted on 11/07/2011 11:41:42 AM PST by paul544
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To: SeekAndFind
If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich

I don't know what to make of this. I do think SB5 is viewed as an overreach, and probably should have been done one piece at a time. That said, I really cannot fathom why Kasich is so unpopular, so fast. Is it the addiction Ohioans have to their precious unions or what?

17 posted on 11/07/2011 11:42:45 AM PST by RockinRight (One year from now, we have an opportunity to take our nation back.)
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To: brownsfan

“So, SB5 passes.”

OK, I meant SB5 is voted down. Ooops.


18 posted on 11/07/2011 11:44:09 AM PST by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: brownsfan

Kasich’s best shot at re-passing these reforms and improving his popularity would be to start with the most popular provisions, and passing them, one at a time...Once Ohio sees the economy improving, his numbers will go up.


19 posted on 11/07/2011 11:46:31 AM PST by RockinRight (One year from now, we have an opportunity to take our nation back.)
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To: RockinRight
That said, I really cannot fathom why Kasich is so unpopular

I think they're hammering him at the "local school level". Many of the school administrations and teachers are blaming him for drastic school funding cuts that are forcing them to go to the voters for property tax increases.

When a person complains about a school levy and potential property tax increase, the answer is "blame Kasich, he's cutting so much of our funding".

Unions are battering him from all directions here.

I think the problem is, we always say we need a leader that will make tough, unpopular, and painful choices to get things under control. That's what we have and people are scared of those same painful choices when it comes time for them to be made.
20 posted on 11/07/2011 11:49:17 AM PST by mmichaels1970
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To: paul544

It’s not just scare tactics. Since FDR was reelected in 36 Americans have consistently rejected any hint of repealing New Deal programs or attitudes. If you asked those polled if they wanted welfare cut or food stamps or medicaid the results would be different. Middle class don’t have a problem with cutting those, but don’t touch their benefits. When you put those wanting to retain middle class entitlements with those wanting to keep poverty entitlements you have a majority vote. That’s just the way it is.


21 posted on 11/07/2011 11:49:52 AM PST by xkaydet65 (IACTA ALEA EST!!!')
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To: RockinRight

“Kasich’s best shot at re-passing these reforms and improving his popularity would be to start with the most popular provisions, and passing them, one at a time...Once Ohio sees the economy improving, his numbers will go up.”

It’s what he should have done in the first place. But, what’s done is done. So, taking the course of action you present, where is the problem? Why the gloom and doom? It suddenly becomes an insurmountable task?


22 posted on 11/07/2011 11:57:28 AM PST by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: mmichaels1970
That's the side of the coin the union thugs are ignoring. There is only so much budget money to be had. The size of the pie is fixed. If the unions drive up the cost per employee, there will be fewer employees. Simple arithmetic, but obviously beyond the grasp of the 'Rats, the union thugs, and the idiot voters.

Here's what Kasich should do. Number 1, state unequivocally that state taxes will not be raised. If the costs per employee are driven up by union demands, then personnel cuts will have to be made. The minute it is clear the issue is voted down, put out the word to all state agencies to plan for a 10% cut in personnel, and then hold a press conference and say that this is the result of defeating Issue 2. Likewise cut state aid to local governments by 10%. Make a similar case for this being the result of defeating Issue 2. Let the sheeple, the union thugs, and the 'Rats understand that elections have consequences. They voted for the cuts by defeating Issue 2. Let them live with it.

23 posted on 11/07/2011 11:58:51 AM PST by chimera
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To: thedrake
You must be in a public sector union to be a hero.

They're not my heroes when they put out false and misleading ads about Issue 2, and expect the taxpayers to fork over more money for their generous benefits. They're not concerned about the economic and financial burden that their demands put on the state.

24 posted on 11/07/2011 11:59:35 AM PST by windsorknot
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To: mmichaels1970
I think the problem is, we always say we need a leader that will make tough, unpopular, and painful choices to get things under control. That's what we have and people are scared of those same painful choices when it comes time for them to be made.

And therein lies the problem. Even when such a leader does surface, he/she ends up losing their next election to someone who just reverses it all before it can really have an effect.

25 posted on 11/07/2011 12:00:24 PM PST by RockinRight (One year from now, we have an opportunity to take our nation back.)
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To: mmichaels1970

That’s even better!!!


26 posted on 11/07/2011 12:00:27 PM PST by ontap
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To: 101voodoo; BO Stinkss
Issue 2 will probably go to the NO crowd.

Taxes won't go up. Jobs will be cut because the budget will not support what the public unions want. There are many local levy issues, as well. Watch them go down in flames and witness the schizophrenic nature of the voters in the state.

27 posted on 11/07/2011 12:10:03 PM PST by edpc (My silence IS an answer)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Buckeye State is fast becoming the Poster Child for why Direct Democracy is a bad idea.


28 posted on 11/07/2011 12:11:25 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: mmichaels1970
I think the problem is, we always say we need a leader that will make tough, unpopular, and painful choices to get things under control. That's what we have and people are scared of those same painful choices when it comes time for them to be made.

So what is it you're saying we have here? Greece on the Olentangy?
29 posted on 11/07/2011 12:13:44 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

As i always say, we speak of the death of the mainstream media at our peril.


30 posted on 11/07/2011 12:16:01 PM PST by denydenydeny (The moment you step into a world of facts, you step into a world of limits. --Chesterton)
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To: SeekAndFind

People get the government they deserve.


31 posted on 11/07/2011 12:24:31 PM PST by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: brownsfan

at a blog - maybe National Review - they said, “the Republican legislature decided to make the billfull of goodies instead of calen and simple.” It went on to say all the extra stuff maed it a vote killer for the public.


32 posted on 11/07/2011 12:24:40 PM PST by q_an_a (the more laws the less justice)
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To: q_an_a

“the Republican legislature decided to make the billfull of goodies instead of calen and simple.”

Politics as usual. And the Ohio GOP has had it’s share of RINOs in it for the cash.

Nothing will change until these people, elected politicians, are afraid.


33 posted on 11/07/2011 12:28:04 PM PST by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: SeekAndFind

That freedom thing is just a bit too frightening for some people.

Remember, Ohio... by voting down SB 5, you’re opting for economy-killing deficits, followed by massive layoffs.

But you’ll make that big statement in support of your precious public-sector unions, won’t you?


34 posted on 11/07/2011 12:31:56 PM PST by ScottinVA (Hurrah me boys, for FREEDOM! `Tis the risin` o` the moon!)
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To: SeekAndFind

That freedom thing is just a bit too frightening for some people.

Remember, Ohio... by voting down SB 5, you’re opting for economy-killing deficits, followed by massive layoffs.

But you’ll make that big statement in support of your precious public-sector unions, won’t you?


35 posted on 11/07/2011 12:32:05 PM PST by ScottinVA (Hurrah me boys, for FREEDOM! `Tis the risin` o` the moon!)
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To: edpc
There are many local levy issues, as well. Watch them go down in flames and witness the schizophrenic nature of the voters in the state.

Just in time for Obama to offer a federal bailout package before next year's election.

36 posted on 11/07/2011 12:34:33 PM PST by ScottinVA (Hurrah me boys, for FREEDOM! `Tis the risin` o` the moon!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

Here the guy has tried to deliver what voters called for back in 2010, and they turn against him. No wonder so many good people don't want to run for public office, what with the psychotic nature of the American electorate. Live up to your campaign promises and it will cost you.

37 posted on 11/07/2011 12:40:27 PM PST by ScottinVA (Hurrah me boys, for FREEDOM! `Tis the risin` o` the moon!)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
So what is it you're saying we have here? Greece on the Olentangy?

Greece on the Olentangy, and Fire on the Cuyahoga.
38 posted on 11/07/2011 12:46:50 PM PST by mmichaels1970
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To: ScottinVA

Why so suprised. Ohio is just another State full of folks who want something for nothing. I don’t care what they do as long as I don’t have to pay for it.


39 posted on 11/07/2011 12:48:55 PM PST by baiamonte
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To: SeekAndFind

The airwaves have been bombarded here with Vote No On Issue 2 ads. They have trotted out firefighters, first responders, nurses, teachers, senior citizens, heck even John Glenn got in on it. They have used scare tactics, heart wrenching stories about firefighters saving children, teacher’s and nurses’s sob stories 24-7 for TWO SOLID MONTHS. How many policemen, firefighters and teachers could have been supported by the money that unions spent on all of these ads?

I and a lot of others I know are voting Yes, but I fear the sheeple have been moved by the unrelenting media assault.


40 posted on 11/07/2011 12:56:40 PM PST by Reagan's My Hero
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To: SeekAndFind
I had hoped this was a poll of registered voters, but it isn't. It's likely voters and the numbers are bad enough to offset any polltaking-chicanery (not that I think there was any). I'm a bit surprised, but, then, Ohio is in the middle of the union rust belt.

Up here in dying New York State, former union members still swear by them. I swear at them, but I think I'm in the minority.

41 posted on 11/07/2011 2:49:14 PM PST by BfloGuy (Even the opponents of Socialism are dominated by socialist ideas.)
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To: No Socialist

I agree. Everyone should pay at least some federal income tax. Were that the case and if taxes by law could NOT just be raised on individual brackets but must be across the board, the schmucks in Congress would have a tough time selling these increases.


42 posted on 11/08/2011 3:00:30 AM PST by 101voodoo
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To: businessprofessor

Correct approach. The issue is too much too fast. You can tweak it into several bills and it will pass easily.


43 posted on 11/08/2011 5:35:25 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: marstegreg

Doesn’t matter, the polls were right. This got slaughtered last night.


44 posted on 11/09/2011 10:10:15 AM PST by SideoutFred (B.O. Stinks...it really does)
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To: SideoutFred

Doesn’t matter, the polls were right. This got slaughtered last night.

...but healthcare was renounced by a bigger margin


45 posted on 11/09/2011 10:12:58 AM PST by marstegreg
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