Thanks.. and I agree on those 3:2 odds.
At this point, if I was handicapping, Id make Obama 3:2 favorite.
Thanks.. and I agree on those 3:2 odds.
Unfortunately, I’ve been forced to say the same thing for 2-3 months now. Obama will likely win reelection, though he may lose more seats in the House, and may even lose the Senate to the Republicans. But, it won’t really matter — He will merely continue to write executive orders and presidential dictates to circumvent Congress, and the Republicans in charge won’t have the guts to stop him — and there still won’t be quite enough Tea Party Conservatives to force them to.
Indeed, it will get ugly. I don’t see how the Republic survives 4 more years of an Obama Presidency. But, with a weak field of Republican Presidential candidates, this is what we can expect.
Here's the Intrade Link.
Unfortunately, further perusal of the site shows that the bettors are giving Romney about 2 chances out of 3 to be the nominee.