Skip to comments.SF FED: There's A 50% Chance Of Recession For The US In Early 2012
Posted on 11/14/2011 1:13:38 PM PST by blam
SF FED: There's A 50% Chance Of Recession For The US In Early 2012
Nov. 14, 2011, 3:13 PM
International risks pose a more immediate threat to the U.S. economy than domestic risks, according to a report from economist Travis J. Berge, and researchers Oscar Jordia and Early Elias of the San Francisco Fed Reserve.
They say there's a one in three chance of U.S. recession in the next 12 months, with recession odds based on international factors peaking at about 45% by the end of this year, only to fall soon after. International risks from earlier this year include supply chain disruptions to the U.S. automobile industry because of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Ongoing risks largely stem from Europe's financial system, especially after IMF head Christine Lagarde said European banks are in urgent need of capital.
Domestic risks to U.S. recession are fairly contained over the next few months but will increase to about 30% in second half of 2012.
When combined together, international and domestic risks raise the odds of a recession in early 2012 to over 50%. Berge, Jordia and Elias warn that while international risks can't be measured as precisely as homegrown risks, the U.S. economy is fragile.
"Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic. A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession. However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013."
Now here's a chart from the San Francisco Fed Reserve that forecasts the probability of a recession:
Image: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Does this mean that we might come out of the Depression that we are already in?!
Gee, economists with a 50-50 prediction have a 100% chance of being right either way, don’t they?
Gee, economists with a 50-50 prediction have a 100% chance of being right either way, dont they?
50% of those economists graduated in the bottom half of their class.
according to the other article this morning you posted,
there’e no way out for europe.
and, already our orders are going down.
how does comrade obama get re-elected?
They’ll just print more, spend more, inflate GDP with waste and claim there’s no recession. That’s what they’re doing now and enough idiots believe it’s a sign of recovery. That’s what they’ll continue to do.
No, it will be a “Redepression”.
Bzzt! Wrong answer.
More like we are in year 4 of the 2nd Great Depression which should bottom out around 2016. (And that’s if we are lucky...)
So they’re saying there’s a 50% chance the economy will be upgraded to a recession? Excellent!
Make that a 100% chance once the “Super Committee” does it’s work and votes for a 1.5 Trillion Tax hike on the “rich”.
SF FED: 50% Chance of Recession
Actual Economic Condition: 90% Chance of Depression
Real unemployment is 20 percent. 1 in 5. Underemployment? Who knows?
Nice to see them put a positive spin on the story.
If the economy improves from ‘Depression’ to ‘Recession’, that’s something Obama can use as a campaign weapon the way I see it.
The same way he got elected in the first time, demographics and the stupidity of the American voter
Watch and see how many businesses go bankrupt or just shut down after a bleak Christmas Shopping Season.
I feel Obama has just about succeeded at his stated goal. Change you can believe in. Yeah right, how can you not believe in it when the proof is in the crumbling ruins of a once great Economy?
Unemployment calculated the way it was when Clinton was president, it is over 22%.
I'm here to say we cannot take more of this "recovery!"
Considering we’ve been in a recession for the last three years, in spite of what the Ministry of Propaganda has been telling us, I’d say that’s a good bet.