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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“One thing. Perry’s run a few races before and won each one.”

Agreed, but he was adamant he was not running this one until he was convinced otherwise by supporters.

He is trailing the leaders, has a good support team with deep pockets, and using self-deprecating humor still has a chance to catch up. Recovering and not out...similar to Cain. Newt is the one that surprised me...his elder statesman style approach allowed him to sneak up and gain some decisive ground. Now the media will pounce...which way will Newt bounce?

I sure would have love to have seen how Sarah would have caused the race to mix up...I am certain she would have had similar issues as these other candidates with mistakes and miscues and outside attacks. All of which are strategically highlighted and over emphasized by the media.


40 posted on 11/21/2011 11:38:29 AM PST by An American! (Proud To Be An American!)
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To: An American!
Hold onto that thought...I'd say right now there's about a 10% chance that we could end up in Tampa next year WITHOUT a candidate ( and I think the odds on that will go up over the next 6 months) and the convention could turn to someone else..Palin, Daniels, Rubio, Ryan...heck..even Christie...it's been so long since we've had an open convention that there's NO way of wargaming it.

Here's a rough blueprint...

After NH, I think the top three will still be hanging around ( Newt, Cain, Mitt). If Perry turns his camping around..it will be a 4 way race. Paul will be there..with between 5-10%..he'll stay till near the end..because he has $$..and his supporters are fanatical.. the second tier..Bachman, Santorum, Huntsman..with between 10-15% fo the vote combined..will have to drop out..no funds..and we'll see where their vote goes. If most flows to ONE candidate, it can be decisive..if it's spread around.. we continue..

My personal feeling is that Mitt's done after NH...he's gonna do 4th in Iowa..will only get a small plurality in NH, and will get wiped out in SC..I think you come down to Perry, Newt, and Cain..all with about 20-25% of the vote, some for Paul, and most undecided..if the following primaries, including Super Tuesday..aren't decisive...then we can come to Tampa with 3 in congtention..though obviosu that not ONE of them is the favorite...or can even command a majority..

After that..it's anyone's guess?

54 posted on 11/21/2011 12:05:49 PM PST by ken5050
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