Skip to comments.US Econ. Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus
Posted on 11/30/2011 8:51:12 AM PST by Qbert
It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.
Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.
ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus
Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus
and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
(Excerpted because of Bloomberg charts)
Can any financial people translate this - it’s greek to me. (other than the point that we are being lied to by Obama on economic matters, I got that much.)
This is pretty much a garbage article. The same thing happens every time the economy goes into a downturn or begins an upturn. The forecasts tend to cluster around one number and the real number is a surprise, and is often well outside the range of the forecasts.
And, as I said in here a few months ago, the economy IS coming back because of the massive money supply growth over the past year.
"And, as I said in here a few months ago, the economy IS coming back because of the massive money supply growth over the past year."
Over here... in the real world, GDP for the last quarter was revised down to 2.0% from 2.5%...
“And, as I said in here a few months ago, the economy IS coming back because of the massive money supply growth over the past year.”
In other words, they have printed enough worthless money to devalue the currency and temporarily stave off a credit crunch.
>>In other words, they have printed enough worthless money to devalue the currency and temporarily stave off a credit crunch.<<
Yes, printing money will cause inflation, and the way they’ve been printing, it could be a doozy...on the order of causing double-digit inflation within a year or two, but no, there’s no danger of a credit crunch in today’s environment. Quite the opposite...people are sitting on their cash, not desperately trying to get cash.
What I said a few months ago was that Obama would be facing re-election during a rising economy due to all the money Bernanke has flooded the system with, and that the inflation would follow the election, not precede it. In other words, this works to his advantage. Hopefully, it won’t be enough to get him re-elected, however.
And his regulators are doing their best to counter any economic growth, offsetting some of Bernanke’s influence.
>>Over here... in the real world, GDP for the last quarter was revised down to 2.0% from 2.5%...<<
Yes, it was, and 2% was higher than expected before any numbers came out. Notice how the talk of a double-dip recession has gone by the wayside? That talk was all the rage just a few months ago. Now, we’re surprised by stronger-than-expected numbers, as I predicted, or rather, as the money supply growth predicted.