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TNR: Yes, Newt’s Up in the Polls. No, You Shouldn’t Take His Candidacy Seriously.
The New Republic ^ | 12/02/2011 | Jonathan Bernstein

Posted on 12/02/2011 1:31:35 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Newt Gingrich is having an impressive national polling surge. His chances of grabbing the GOP presidential nomination have spiked up to over 30 percent at Intrade this week, and the media is full of stories about whether it’s time to start taking him seriously. Here’s my advice: don’t. None of the recent polling means he’s going to win the Republican nomination, nor does it even mean that he’s going to have a serious shot at it. Newt is still the same wildly unelectable candidate he was five minutes ago, and the polls that say otherwise are no better indicator of voters’ true preferences than a game of darts.

The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate with all the same baggage. He’s still got his history of deviations from party orthodoxy on practically every issue, and the ethics violations, and the marital problems. He’s still the same guy who wound up not being trusted at all by those who worked with him when he was in office. And he’s still got a long history of just not being very popular with anyone outside of the most intense of intense partisans—and even they are likely aware that he’s risky at best and more likely pure poison in a general election.

The lack of endorsements by party actors is the second factor working against Newt, and it suggests that the people who have the most at stake in the nomination see him the same way as I do. We’ve seen this year (Donald Trump?!?) and in the past (John Anderson 1980? Jerry Brown 1992? Rudy Giuliani 2008?) that practically anyone can get a rush of attention and therefore a surge in the polls,

(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: conspiracy; donedeal; gingrich; newt; nominee; polls; thefixisin
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To: org.whodat

“The poll results are what they are, newts support is 3 feet wide and as thick as a sheet of paper.”

That, my little friend, is where you’re wrong.


21 posted on 12/02/2011 2:17:16 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: sodpoodle

Lol...I try. It’s been challenging, but I’ve been making liberal use of the little ‘x’ on the upper right of my screen. And my backspace key.

;-)


22 posted on 12/02/2011 2:19:27 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: COgamer

Horse Hockey! America has become a junkyard because of the poor economy and international downgrading caused by 0bama. Right now we need a “junkyard dawg” to protect us and turn both around. And, Newt, baggage and all, is that dawg!


23 posted on 12/02/2011 2:21:07 PM PST by StraightDave (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney fans, while trying to avoid detection, will push hard for any other candidates and against Gingrich.


24 posted on 12/02/2011 2:22:16 PM PST by familyop ("Don't worry, they'll row for a month before they figure out I'm fakin' it." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: COgamer

These are perilous times that demand unusual sacrifice.

If a conservative candidate is not stepping up to the challenge and others who do are not electable due to lack of leadership, experience, support, money, exposure, charisma, eloquence, success in the public or private sector, unimpeachable character..............we have what we have.

Stand up for the alternative to take back our Republic.

Or fall back. Obama says thank you.


25 posted on 12/02/2011 2:24:36 PM PST by sodpoodle ( Newter the Democrats - top to bottom.)
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To: sodpoodle
“FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.”

I will continue to post this wherever I deem appropriate...

Newt is a hollow man...with an uncanny ability to use good words and fair speeches to deceive the minds of the simple.

He has an atrocious non conservative record, established over many years, conservatives are realistic and will not be decieved into believing this man has changed, just in the last couple of years.

Beware the NEWT!

26 posted on 12/02/2011 2:43:56 PM PST by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: Raebie

So you were not on judys team and winning last time, sure I believe it. Newt is a walking hand grenade with a missing pin it is just a matter of time until he pops off, maybe he already has.


27 posted on 12/02/2011 2:44:59 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

Who is judy and WTH are you talking about?


28 posted on 12/02/2011 2:46:55 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie
You really have no knowledge of who judy is and the prior election cycle and you are commenting on who's on second, well damn.
29 posted on 12/02/2011 2:56:16 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

By ‘judy’ are you referring to Giuliani?

What are you, 13? Do you snicker when someone passes gas too?


30 posted on 12/02/2011 3:00:36 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie

Free Republic is likely to become Third-Party-I-want-to-lose-to-obama central.

Because obviously that is the only way we can show conservative we are!

The good news is that when those days begin, it won’t matter out in the real world.

obama is going to lose to the GOP nominee.

I hope it’s Gingrich (unless miraculously someone else emerges somehow...the ultimate dream being the convention itself)


31 posted on 12/02/2011 3:04:24 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: Raebie
Everybody on fr calls him judy because of his dressing in drag, sorry you do not think it funny. His picture in drag has been posted here 10,000 times. And not once by me.
32 posted on 12/02/2011 3:08:13 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Raebie
Everybody on fr calls him judy because of his dressing in drag, sorry you do not think it funny. His picture in drag has been posted here 10,000 times. And not once by me.
33 posted on 12/02/2011 3:09:23 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

I was never a Giuliani supporter. I think he did a great job as mayor of NYC and he wouldn’t put up with this OWS crap, that’s for sure.

Last election, I was all in for Fred Thompson early on. I was very disappointed when he dropped out. I ended up voting for McCain, largely because of Palin.

I will vote for anyone who runs against Obama. I sincerely hope it’s Newt. That OK with you?


34 posted on 12/02/2011 3:13:31 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: org.whodat

I was never a Giuliani supporter. I think he did a great job as mayor of NYC and he wouldn’t put up with this OWS crap, that’s for sure.

Last election, I was all in for Fred Thompson early on. I was very disappointed when he dropped out. I ended up voting for McCain, largely because of Palin.

I will vote for anyone who runs against Obama. I sincerely hope it’s Newt. That OK with you?


35 posted on 12/02/2011 3:13:47 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: org.whodat; Raebie

Odd. I’ve never noticed him being called judy here...


36 posted on 12/02/2011 3:17:00 PM PST by Mr Rogers ("they found themselves made strangers in their own country")
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To: sodpoodle
FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.

I'm taking a closer look at Newt, it will never be head over heels like it was with Sarah, not even as high as with Herman, but a more cool, sober, hard examination of Newt.

Given the choices, Newt is looking better than I thought.

I'd really like to see Newt and the one doing the seven, three hour long Lincon-Douglas style debates, with obummer reading his answers from TOTUS, and Newt still kicking his ass.

37 posted on 12/02/2011 3:24:10 PM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke The Terrorist Savages)
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To: org.whodat
Everybody on fr calls him judy...

You are FOS. I've been here apx 14 years and have never heard him called that before you. Pat yourself on the back for originality, but don't speak for all FReepers, we'll pull you up by the short-hairs.

38 posted on 12/02/2011 3:39:34 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: Cyber Liberty

Thank you. I’ve been here for years and had no idea who ‘judy’ was. Lol...


39 posted on 12/02/2011 3:43:13 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie

Org.dumbo is about 12 years old and lives in his mom’s basement...Paultard...he’s best ignored..


40 posted on 12/02/2011 3:46:06 PM PST by magritte
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