Skip to comments.Team Obama's Pathway to 270
Posted on 12/03/2011 6:35:12 PM PST by neverdem
Make sure to read The New York Times's Jim Rutenberg's excellent overview of Team Obama's 2012 strategy, which involves a healthy heaping of negative attacks on the Republican nominee sprinkled with helpful reminders about the president's counterterrorism successes.
But one nugget about the electoral map caught my eye. Rutenberg writes:
Obama's team acknowledges that it is not likely that the stars will align as well for them in 2012. But, having won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes when 270 are needed, they believe they have 95 to spare next year. That buys a lot of breathing room. Mr. Obama could lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and Indiana and still win re-election -- though that would mean having to win just about every other state he won last time...
Mr. Messina also said the campaign would focus on holding on to the "New South" states of Virginia and North Carolina that Mr. Obama won last time. It has gone all-out with its plan to have the Democratic convention in Charlotte in September.
That's a roundabout way of saying that Obama's team is focusing on winning Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado (and Michigan/Wisconsin in the Democratic-leaning column) as its most logical pathway to 270 electoral votes. It means that, despite the spin they're focused at winning every state, they feel that their best chance of securing 270 electoral votes is through the upscale, white-collar coalition that propelled Obama to victory in 2008 - one I outlined in my column earlier this month. It explains the administration's decision to punt on the Keystone XL pipeline, for fear of alienating environmentalists that make up an important constituency in many of these states.
It also means Obama's pathway to victory is awfully narrow. Under this map, Obama could win with 270 electoral votes, to the Republican's 268. And it would include carrying North Carolina, the home of the Democratic convention next year, which Obama only won by 14,000 votes in 2008.
The spin shows that while Obama's team is putting an optimistic face on its prospects, its path to victory is getting narrower.
UPDATE: Also note, from Julie Pace's AP dispatch, that the White House is emphasizing VP Joe Biden's campaign role in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Floirda over Obama's.Those three traditional battleground states were included on the list of states Obama could lose and still win 270 electoral votes.
Just got a lot easier.
This week’s lesson. No proof or evidence is any longer required if the target is a conservative. All that matters is that the accusations have have been made
Now that the political establishment media scumbags on both sides have decide Accusation equals proof these same tactics of political lynching will be used against EVERY Conservative GOP candidate for Senate and House in 2012.
So enjoy your Pyrrhic victory today morons. These same sleazy tactics the GOPbots mediabots were so quick to embrace and pimp will now be used against their candidates.
no chance of North Carolina/Virginia...
the GOP should challenge obozo to run on his record EVERY step of the way and dare the criminal liberal media to do the same...and when they shill for obozo demand to know from the criminal liberal media why obozo is not running on his record...
Zer0 one NH????
It is called the 5th column (MSM). And the 6th column is the educational system in the US.
Obama could get 40% of the vote in VA, NC, and generally and win, if Trump gets 30% and the Republican nominee gets 30%. Or perhaps win with 45% if Romney is the Republican nominee and gets 43% while 12% goes to a conservative third-party candidate. Or even Obama 45%, Romney 25%, conservative candidate 30%.
third party candidate guarantees obama victory. I have yet to see however how with current demographics how he can loose.
Mr. Obama could lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and Indiana and still win re-election
Baloney! No one in Modern history has been elected President without carrying at least 2 of these 3 States: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Mr. Messina also said the campaign would focus on holding on to the “New South” states of Virginia and North Carolina
Obozo will not carry either of these two states. I don’t care if they do have the DemocRAT Convention in NC, they will not win VA and NC.
the GOP should challenge Obozo to run on his record EVERY step of the way....
That’s why Newt is going to challenge Obozo to 7 Lincoln-Douglas style Debates. If he refuses, Newt will follow him around America. Four hours after Obozo makes a speech Newt will be in the same city, refuting the President and his policies. Invest in Orville Redenbacher Popcorn. This is gonna be good. (If Newt is the nominee.)
I have yet to see however how with current demographics how he can loose.
Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter by double digits two weeks before the Election; yet, he won in a landslide. Carter conceded before the polls closed in California. Obozo is the 21st Century Jimmy Carter.
Trump speaks very negatively of Obama, but he is such an egotist that he may think he can win it all running as an independent candidate. His plan may be to hold the debate he has announced and afterwards announce that none of the candidates is good enough so he will run himself.
All the GOP has to do is win these:
Very likely: IN, NE-2
Likely: FL, NC, VA
Somewhat likely: OH
And just one of ANY of these:
PA, MI, NJ, WI, CO, IA, NV, NM, NH
Reading this thread title, I thought that President Obama finally figured out how to golf 270 games in a year. I’m sure he has people on the payroll figuring out how to do that very thing.
If by he, you mean Obama, then look at the 2010 election results. The GOP got 60 % of the white vote. That never happened before. He's alienated the rats historical base of Jacksonian Democrats and ethnic working class whites. His environmental policies are economic disasters for those working in conventional energy industries and the rest of us paying for it.
A third party candidate will give 0 the election. I believe FReepers will either stay home or not vote for president, and that’ll help 0, too.
Anyone staying home on election day knowingly giving zero a second term is a traitor and a disgrace.
There is no freaking way, Obama wins Virginia. Having a popular governor and the way virginia has turned red, Obama cannot find enough votes in northern virginia to offset the rural southern vrigina.
North carolina is an iffy state. I think, Obama will loose it but it will be very close. The demographics of this state is changing so fast due to implants from north. It all depends on Wake county.
Add in that Obama is not going to win in Wisconsin in 2012.