I’m not sure what all is meant by “Irish Riviera,” but as I look over the 2010 results and the old and new maps, McGovern (Jim) carried Fall River 7204-2163. That’s 9367 votes, and a piece of Fall River is in the new 4th.
Frank lost Freetown (near Fall River but is in the old 4th and the new 4th) 1432-1979.
He lost Lakeville (same story as Freetown), 1501-2945.
That totals 7857 votes. I am thinking that the piece of Fall River in the new 4th is around 1510 votes - anyway, no other town on the border of the 4th has any fewer than 1510 votes. I am aware that number of constituents is not necessarily proportional to the number of votes. I’m too lazy to pull up the census 2010 data though.
Anyway, at best Frank would have gained 6300 votes from switching Lakeville and Freetown for Fall River. I see all other switches of this size no better than this one.
Frank won in ‘10 by 25K. Keating won by only 12K in ‘10 so yes I can see that he might not want to surrender friendly territory for potentially hostile territory. Keating’s district changes a good bit so the actual margin is surely different now. Surely the Democrats want to retain all 9 seats so I can’t see Keating’s margin getting smaller than what it was in ‘10.
I said above “all other switches of this size.” There is an anti-Frank corridor from Norfolk Town down to Rehoboth-Dighton-Berkley. New Bedford (now in the 9th) supported Frank 14916-6244 in ‘10. Actually getting New Bedford would have been more valuable for Frank than getting Fall River.
Lynch won a number of towns convincingly - Dedham, Westwood, Walpole - however that support might not extend to Frank. Also there’s that chunk of southwest Boston in the new 8th that adjoins the 4th — I believe Lynch lives in the oceanside Southeast Boston (separated by the majority-minority 7th).
Thanks for the comprhensive analysis.
I’ve always understood the Irish Riviera to mean Scituate, which is in the 10th District. I suppose it could include parts of Marshfield and Duxbury as well.