Posted on 12/05/2011 7:23:06 AM PST by SeekAndFind
When one loses a beloved pet, it’s generally considered very poor form to ask them about getting a replacement until a sufficient amount of time has passed for grieving and healing. But no such rules apply in the fast paced world of presidential politics, particularly when the calendar shrinks down to barely 30 days before the voting begins in Iowa. So, with the departure from the stage of Herman Cain, awkward though it may be, it’s time to ask the inevitable question. Where do his remaining supporters turn next? An editorial in the New York Daily News offers a few thoughts.
With the announcement that Herman Cain will suspend his campaign, effectively ending his bid for President, the other candidates have likely set their sights squarely on the votes he leaves up for grabs.
While Mitt Romney would benefit most from picking up Cain’s Tea Party supporters, it’s unlikely they’ll flock to the front-runner. Many conservatives see him as an establishment candidate who doesn’t understand real America.
Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, has adeptly marketed himself — somewhat inexplicably, considering his long career in Washington politics — as an outsider. He could gobble up Cain’s votes and gain considerably from his exit.
That strikes me as a rather shallow analysis which takes the fastest and easiest path to the exit. First, it’s important to note that we’re not talking about a huge base of support any more, but it’s still significant. The fact is – just taking Iowa as one example – much of Cain’s army had already broken ranks before Saturday’s announcement, primarily to the benefit of Newt Gingrich. He leads there with 25%, while Cain had already sunk down to single digits after leading during the previous month. But that single digit is still sizable at 8%. The untold story is that Ron Paul has moved into second, with 18. Imagine a hypothetical world where Cain’s remaining voters all shifted to the Texas congressman. (Note that I’m not even suggesting this is possible. This is a math problem.) That would put Paul in a statistical tie with Newt.
More in the realm of reality, if they all marched back to Rick Perry’s camp he would be back in double digits and showing the kind of sudden momentum the media love to trumpet. Other possibilities exist. So where Cain’s hard core fans migrate is still an important question.
Clearly it’s still too soon for some of the truly enamored to think about it, though. During the Huckabee Forum last night I displayed the poor taste to comment on Twitter that, were Romney to become the eventual nominee, I’d still support him, albeit unenthusiastically. Even though I hadn’t even invoked Cain’s name, one of his die-hard fans immediately shot back with a blunt attack.
my husband and i are either writing in @THEHermanCain or voting 4 him on our ballot. The campaign is only SUSPENDED
Fair enough. But the time is coming when reality will have to sink in and choices will need to be made. Is the NY Post editorial correct that Newt is pretty much the only game in town? Not from what I’m seeing. In one of the most unenthusiastic endorsements I’ve seen in quite some time, Da Tech Guy sighed, “Well, I guess it’s Santorum.”
In my Twitter stream, during the same time period, I saw a number of people talking about a “second look” at Rick Perry. I even noted a few Bachmann fans bubbling back to the surface.
And why not? For those final 8% who stuck with Cain to the bitter end, why wouldn’t they be taking a look at someone like Santorum or Rick Perry Two Point Oh? If they were attracted to Cain, clearly they were looking for the consummate Washington outsider. If that’s one of your defining criteria, is the first port in a storm you look for really… Newt? For all his positive qualities and abilities, “beltway outsider” isn’t’ exactly the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Gingrich.
There’s another debate coming next Saturday, but it’s a horrible media slot and I’m not sure how many of even the most dedicated voters will be watching. We’re entering that political media dead zone where people tend to focus more on family, shopping, trimming the tree and waxing their skates. One week to ten days worth of additional polling should tell us where the remaining Cain supporters land, and it will be instructive to say the least.
The ones who have been badmouthing Newt are going to feel real stupid!!!
If Cain was getting serious money this last month or two it HAD to be coming from the DNC. Because his presence in the Republican race was ONLY of benefit to the Demoviks.
So maybe the DNC can double down on Ron Paul at this point.
Latest poll out today shows Gingrich picking up nearly all of Cains support.
>> The ones who have been badmouthing Newt are going to feel real stupid!!!>>
And it is just me, or have many of those been absent here on FR the last 72 hours. Just a coincidence I’m sure. /s (ahem MNJohnnie?)
As for me, I always liked Cain, Newt and Perry for the most part - yet never drank the kool aid of any of them. But frankly, I prefer to debate ideas than people anyway. Keeps the emotion out of it -— and makes reality so much easier to handle when you are well aware of it from the beginning.
Why should I feel stupid for actually standing for my principles?
Why? The man's a self-serving liar, an all-around creep, and a weasly RINO, and under NO circumstances will I vote for him. Period.
No, I don't. There are some very real negatives to Newt.
‘Tea Party’ nominees for House and Senate!
Think people!
Why feel bad? The campaign to kill off Cain in favor of a media/GOP elite pick is now a step closer to victory. Newt is better than obama and is light-years ahead of Romney or Perry but he still has only a narrow sideways chance in hell of beating obama. The democrat and GOP forces will now start trotting out the bimbo eruptions and charges to bring down newt and bring their candidate-select one step closer to a doomed nomination and campaign. I hope it works out and I’ll vote for him, but I don’t hold out much hope. I’d still go with Cain if he brings his campaign out of suspension. McLame suspended his campaign and he still ended up with the nomination, but then again he was the media/GOP chosen candidate.
Yep his answer about the Pelosi photo during the Huckabee forum the other night was very telling.
He said Pelosi was radioactive and took away from the message (Which was global warming is real and we have to stop it) He then went on to say that he would eliminate the EPA and replace it with an Environmental Solutions Agency.
Gingrich.
I find it hard to believe Bachmann and Santorum don’t benefit from Cain’s departure.
The new Gingrich supporters are probably thinking the same thing I am. He’s the only way to keep mitt out of the white house.
If polls are one thing, they are accurate.
Right?
I’ll be keeping my money, TexasFreeper2009.
I’m keeping it for The Fall, and there is no point in spending one more cent on the farce of a race.
Meanwhile, I’ll be waiting for the polling company to call me...
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